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(SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat

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(SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat
Post by thanatos   » Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:14 am

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Has there been any discussion about what's likely to happen politically in Desnair and Dohlar, after both militaries suffered such a massive defeat? Dohlar committed around 100,000 troops and Desnair more than 230,000 troops after all and at the end of LAMA barely 10% of Desnair's army and 40% of Dohlar's have managed to escape. Coupled with the expected pay back Sharpfield is going to exact upon Thirsk, King Rahnyld and Gorath one has to expect the hapless serfs and slaves in both polities to suddenly realize their legitimate lords and masters are not as powerful as they seem. And if the church tries to keep a lid on things and punish anyone who tries to demand a change in their living conditions, it will be tainted by association. The church doesn't have the guts to try and demand such reform within itself, much less in other and less so in time of Jihad. Little if any encouragement would be required by the Inner Circle to make this happen - Indeed, I think Merlin would have to intervene in some subtle way to at least guide any peasant or slave rebellion in a way that doesn't lead to massive bloodshed. Finally, looking at the map, I couldn't help but notice the narrow hips of the mainland. If Desnair is destabilized in the East and Dohlar is destabilized in the West, the allies could effectively cut the mainland in half.

Thoughts?
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Re: (SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat
Post by lyonheart   » Sun Mar 09, 2014 5:11 am

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Hi Thanotos,

Desnar's army and industry are so incompetent, I suspect it will largely be ignored for the rest of this war, since it will take too much time to assemble another army as big, NTM equipping it with modern weapons, though the logistical morass that has apparently doomed the IDA in all its invasions of the SR for the past two centuries is the most critically needed fix of the IDA.

That this seemingly immortal systemic weakness has persisted in the IDA for so long speaks volumes about the refusal of the Desnairi nobility to face facts.

Indeed one wonders if the RSA pike square reputation wasn't fostered by the Desnari for all those decades in order for them to ignore their own glaring weaknesses.

It might even be true that the then rulers knew it, but the even more incompetent current set didn't know; though perhaps that might change as they search the old records hoping for clues to explain this disaster (possibly aided by OWL, Nahrmahn and Merlin, etc). ;)

But will they then admit it?

Though OWL's broadsides might have a thing or two to say about it. :D

The fact that the Go4 let this disaster happen despite Duchairn's reservations about the IDA's logistics, as an indication that God isn't helping the Go4, will be very effective in Desnar.

The fact the IDA made no attempt to reequip the cavalry with any kind of firearms, despite all the evidence of the power of the new weapons, as evidenced by the new TO&E's of the other Go4 armies, is rather damning to any pretense the IDA had learned what it should have, and no one can be blamed for that but the empire's own aristocracy.

Besides all the suffering by the middle and lower classes who made up the bulk of the army the aristocracy lost over 90% of the army's 5-6000 noble officers (plus the aristocrat only royal guard regiments).

I've previously suggested that such losses would have earthquake like repercussions among the families that rule Desnar, as fathers, sons, grandfathers, brothers and uncles have all been swept away from their positions and powers, lands and inheritances,

I look forward to Hennet's end or survival; if Clyntahn finds him guilty of wasting the AoS's limited supplies on his worthless cavalry, his head might roll before Symkyn obliterates Kaitswyrth rather quickly.

Of course that might really tick off Desnar, seeing him as a scapegoat regardless of the accuracy of the charge (like admiral Byng); so he might survive the inquisition for purely political reasons.

Aside: Kaitswyrth had less than 39% of his original rifles (>12,000) remaining since the August debacle (assuming he had 40 infantry divisions, and no textev indicates he received any replacements for 5 month's, or through to early March, so it's not too surprising he didn't want to tackle or even tempt such a powerful force.

One wonders how long it took before he found out DE wasn't there anymore. :D

Symkyn has some 75,000 men now (it may have taken until February until all arrived) including 2 mounted brigades, and he might actually outnumber K's AoG (but not including the TL's) while having 4-5 times as many rifles, 80+% being Mahndrayns, before figuring in the mortars and artillery superiority.

As Sgt Snorkel said "Gee, where do I begin?" :lol:

So it won't just be BGV eliminating Wyrshym rather soon, but Symkyns doing the same to Kaitswyrth this spring as well.

Dohlar has a border over 1100 miles with the republic, and perhaps 55-60,000 men to defend that frontier against some 125,000 men under DE and EHM, who are far better armed, trained and equipped; what do you think is going to happen?

Sooner or later, enough of the aristocracy will realize King Rahnyld's head isn't too steep a price for keeping themselves still with some power and wealth.

Whether Rahnyld is smart enough (if he isn't too drunk) to realize that soon enough to survive, who knows? ;)

But Dohlar will definitely be living in some 'very interesting times' very soon.

L


Can HFQ come out in time for Christmas?


thanatos wrote:Has there been any discussion about what's likely to happen politically in Desnair and Dohlar, after both militaries suffered such a massive defeat? Dohlar committed around 100,000 troops and Desnair more than 230,000 troops after all and at the end of LAMA barely 10% of Desnair's army and 40% of Dohlar's have managed to escape. Coupled with the expected pay back Sharpfield is going to exact upon Thirsk, King Rahnyld and Gorath one has to expect the hapless serfs and slaves in both polities to suddenly realize their legitimate lords and masters are not as powerful as they seem. And if the church tries to keep a lid on things and punish anyone who tries to demand a change in their living conditions, it will be tainted by association. The church doesn't have the guts to try and demand such reform within itself, much less in other and less so in time of Jihad. Little if any encouragement would be required by the Inner Circle to make this happen - Indeed, I think Merlin would have to intervene in some subtle way to at least guide any peasant or slave rebellion in a way that doesn't lead to massive bloodshed. Finally, looking at the map, I couldn't help but notice the narrow hips of the mainland. If Desnair is destabilized in the East and Dohlar is destabilized in the West, the allies could effectively cut the mainland in half.

Thoughts?
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Re: (SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat
Post by Charybdis   » Sun Mar 09, 2014 1:07 pm

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Given RFC's well known (and well earned) reputation for historical knowledge, the resemblances of the Desnarian Empire to Poland definitely come to the fore. An arrogant and overweening aristocracy that became increasingly self-serving and corrupt, along with a monarchy that became ever more a figurehead after the 1600s, is what led Poland to being partitioned, not once, not twice, but 3 times to the point of disappearing as a nation!

Add the historical tidbit of, like the Irish 'Wild Geese', Polish exiles tending to offer their well-honed battle skills elsewhere (Andrzej Kościuszko and Kazimierz Pułaski in the American Revolution), does this presage some similar actions by noted Desnarians as the wrath of the CoGA finds fault there?

These are the kinds of parallels that make RFC's novels so much fun for the likes of history buffs like myself! ;)
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Re: (SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat
Post by n7axw   » Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:19 pm

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is there any text evidence as to how much of Desnair's army actually showd up in Siddamark? We know that pre-Sword of Schuler, Siddamark had roughly 1.2 million men under arms. Given the fact that they are rivals comparable in size, it would surprise me if Desmair's army would be much less. Should that be the case, Army of Justice under Harless would represent only a fraction of Denarian Army, which mean that its loss, while disastrous would not be a death blow

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: (SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat
Post by SYED   » Mon Mar 10, 2014 2:56 am

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With the army trashed, they need someone to rebuild it into a proper weapon to use against their enemies. THe only man known to be capable of this is THirsk, THis will cause the army officers and nobles to go mad, a navy admiral, unfavored in general being given such power. ANd what more, he will ensure that the army would have the rights and benefits his navy has as well. If he had enemies before, he will be mass producing them now. THe thing is with such a loss of the officer corps, they need experienced men, so there is a chance he will be promoting the senior enlisted to officer status. THe nobles will not like commoners becoming so upity.
The thing is they might have additional forces, but are they in a position to send and support them as they attempt to retake the battle line. They may be lucky to retake the old border.
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Re: (SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat
Post by lyonheart   » Mon Mar 10, 2014 3:45 am

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Hi N7axw,

Very good points!

1% of ~83 million implies a peacetime army of ~830,000 yet the Go4 only required about a hundred thousand initially, and that included infantry with less than 37% rifles, so I suspect the rest were worse armed and often left for constabulary or frontier duties where they didn't need the most modern weapons.

I think in the face of such a disaster, Duchairn would permit Dohlar to keep its rifle production nearer home, but it would still take time to train even veteran soldiers with such new weapons, let alone new tactics.

Trying to telescope a year's training into 2-3 month's is a recipe for ruin, though Siddarmark's Lord Protector probably enjoys the reversal from last year. ;)

Dohlar's frontier with the republic is around 1100-1150 miles, and trying to hold Tryvyr won't stop being easily flanked by forces twice as large.

Though given ICA siege weapons, they might not bother to flank. ;)

I believe RFC wouldn't have spent so much time developing Ahlverez's character if he wasn't going to survive his current pursuit, so I suspect he will be quite active in HFQ. :D

Which I think will please most fans.

Looking forward to your further ideas.

L

Can HFQ come out in time for Christmas?


n7axw wrote:is there any text evidence as to how much of Desnair's army actually showd up in Siddamark? We know that pre-Sword of Schuler, Siddamark had roughly 1.2 million men under arms. Given the fact that they are rivals comparable in size, it would surprise me if Desmair's army would be much less. Should that be the case, Army of Justice under Harless would represent only a fraction of Denarian Army, which mean that its loss, while disastrous would not be a death blow

Don
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Re: (SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Mar 10, 2014 10:13 am

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n7axw wrote:is there any text evidence as to how much of Desnair's army actually showd up in Siddamark? We know that pre-Sword of Schuler, Siddamark had roughly 1.2 million men under arms. Given the fact that they are rivals comparable in size, it would surprise me if Desmair's army would be much less. Should that be the case, Army of Justice under Harless would represent only a fraction of Denarian Army, which mean that its loss, while disastrous would not be a death blow

Don


Not a death blow for Desnari internal stability. I suspect that since they do not and appears can not manufacture enough modern weapons, internal security is the only thing the remaining IDA is good for. If the ICA decided it wanted to raid the Desnari coastline, there would be very little the IDA could do to stop them.

All in all Desnair has very little to offer the jihad.
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Re: (SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat
Post by lyonheart   » Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:34 pm

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Hi PeterZ,

Yup, Desnar doesn't get much respect, and evidently for some good reasons.

From LaMA, where we learned the most about them; they're almost as bad as Harchong the way they treat their serfs, though the nobles do take a more active role in governing than the Harchongese, so they and their guilds are quite satisfied with the status quo, preserving what they have.

They can't offer very much at all, if the Temple Lands with only 89 million people has been easily outproducing Desnar which has 148 million (about 2/3 again), in weapons for the jihad and probably the whole range of industrial goods now they're all cut off from Charis.

Desnar has always been pretty peripheral to the series, in terms of being mentioned or acted upon, which I don't think was RFC's initial intention, but the press of other action may have reduced scenes that were in other nations and their courts etc.

OAR had references to a Desnar naval tradition and some naval capability regarding Tarot in BHD that disappeared by AMF, and the early maps indicated Southern Siddarmark was Desnari as well, so it seemed far closer to Tarot and far bigger than the republic etc.

There was some indication that the capital and major city of Desnair and Geyra still had some remaining war galleons, since they built them there as well, but I expected the Rottweilers and bombardment ships to finish them off as their first mission in LaMA, but they too may simply be ignored as not germane to the primary action.

Despite their insular attitude, they seem to assume they're still better than everyone else when it comes to cavalry and other standards of national comparison, which is remarkably foolish given their obviously limited perspective.

Cavalry is far more expensive than infantry, so the regular IDA may have been much smaller than the ~1% active figure the RSA was restricted to, despite the Desnari gold mines, NTM quite spread out for its serf suppressing duties, the infantry regiments created only on the Go4's insistence, and treated accordingly.

Technically if the IDA was up to 1.48 million men, the AoJ represented something between a sixth and an eighth of that total number (including projected artillery figures), but had a pathetic number of new weapons, only a third of the infantry having rifles or ~18,720 out of an army of 175,000; or less than 11% overall, while evidently having less field artillery than the smaller (~90-95,000 man) RDA brought with them for half as many men.

The effect of losing 5000+ aristocratic officers will be quite a shock to the nobility and the society in general, which may force some major changes, just as the various plagues NTM wars did to Europe, so RFC's actual results will be fascinating.

What do you think we should expect?

L


PeterZ wrote:
n7axw wrote:is there any text evidence as to how much of Desnair's army actually showd up in Siddamark? We know that pre-Sword of Schuler, Siddamark had roughly 1.2 million men under arms. Given the fact that they are rivals comparable in size, it would surprise me if Desmair's army would be much less. Should that be the case, Army of Justice under Harless would represent only a fraction of Denarian Army, which mean that its loss, while disastrous would not be a death blow

Don


Not a death blow for Desnari internal stability. I suspect that since they do not and appears can not manufacture enough modern weapons, internal security is the only thing the remaining IDA is good for. If the ICA decided it wanted to raid the Desnari coastline, there would be very little the IDA could do to stop them.

All in all Desnair has very little to offer the jihad.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: (SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:04 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Yup, Desnar doesn't get much respect, and evidently for some good reasons.

snip
What do you think we should expect?

L


I don't think we should expect much from desnair in this story arc. I suspect that we will see a destically different Desnair when the next story arc begins. South Harchong might escape with its industry intact. If the ICN continues to control the Gulf of Dohlar, then Desnair might be pushed by the Southern Harchong empire. I am thinking something like Byzantium and the Arabs.
Last edited by PeterZ on Mon Mar 10, 2014 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: (SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat
Post by n7axw   » Mon Mar 10, 2014 5:43 pm

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Given the unpleasant reality that they couldn't manufacture cannon for Jahras' ships that didn't blow up at inconvienent times, I think you guys are right.

The surprise has been Dohlar. I wouldn't be surprised to see them emerge stronger after the war than they were before once the inhibitions of the inquisition are removed. Maybe not to the extent of post-war Germany, but stronger, nevertheless.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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