Development of fuelless powerplants?

SWM wrote:

Aegis99 wrote:Your points are very solid, but an increase in renewabes requires an equal amount of reserve be built because grid operators cannot count on the renewables staying on.

As was stated elsewhere, if you are building a new power generator of any kind you need to have that reserve. So the cost of the reserve is the same no matter what kind of main power generator you build.

Says who? A hydroelectric plant doesn't have a reserve, and neither does a big coal/nuclear plant. There is a difference between baseload, mid-load, and peaking power. Building redundancy into your grid is different than building a reserve capacity for intermittent sources. If the plants you run are reliable and on demand there is much less reserve capacity required. But intermittent sources need to be matched at nearly 1:1

Aegis99 wrote:Says who? A hydroelectric plant doesn't have a reserve, and neither does a big coal/nuclear plant. There is a difference between baseload, mid-load, and peaking power. Building redundancy into your grid is different than building a reserve capacity for intermittent sources. If the plants you run are reliable and on demand there is much less reserve capacity required. But intermittent sources need to be matched at nearly 1:1

And if that coal plant trips offline due to a problem with the transformers? When the hydro plant runs out of water behind the damn? What if the coal truck gets in a wreck?
Reserve requirements are NOT calculated off generation fuel source, they're calculated off total predicted load. The only time fuel source enters into the equation is to determine how much of it's total capacity a generator can contribute to the reserve.

For more info:
http://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ri/Pages/Pl ... argin.aspx

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=6510


Also Wind doesn't drop to 0 immediately. Again, software that can predict wind turbine output within 10% 24 hours from now, and even better 1 hour from now exists and is in use, literally 2 floors below where I sitting right now, to determine least cost dispatches of generation for the next several days.

keylime314 wrote:And if that coal plant trips offline due to a problem with the transformers?

That is unlikely to be a frequent or region wide occurrence.

When the hydro plant runs out of water behind the damn?

If this is a sudden issue, then you have worse problems than no power

What if the coal truck gets in a wreck?

Why would you be getting deliveries by truck? Most plants have at least a weeks supply of fuel at the plant.

Also Wind doesn't drop to 0 immediately. Again, software that can predict wind turbine output within 10% 24 hours from now, and even better 1 hour from now exists and is in use, literally 2 floors below where I sitting right now, to determine least cost dispatches of generation for the next several days.

Wind goes to zero randomly and it is this intermittancy that is why if grid operators were not required to accept the power generated, they would not.

Also large coal plant require 24-36 hours just to get up enough steam pressure to turn the generator (min operating T&P). It takes 12-24 hours to get the generator synched to the grid, and the boiler may yet to be maxed. I believe that Nukes may be even slower.

=2014/03/07=

Hi Aegis99

You are correct in that sparking commutators or other fluctuations from out-of-balance motors would generate EM emissions that can be detected by the bombardment system.

But so can the EM from lightening.

I was counting on the EM strengths emitted from lightening and other natural events to mask the EM from out-of-balance motors.

It seems to me the bombardment system control already ignores some pretty strong naturally occurring EM emissions.

Sorry that my original post was incomplete and left so much of my thoughts unstated

But, having said all this, if I were Merlin, there is NO WAY I would fool around with electricity before the bobmardment system had been neutralized (just-in-case, you understand) !!

R
.

Aegis99 wrote:

kbus888 wrote:=2014/03/06=

For a DC grid, there are few "syncing" requirements.

Also, if the main distribution is not only DC but via shielded cable, there are very few EM waves generated, even when the current flow varies with load.

Not NO EM or NO syncing requirements -- just fewer and milder ones which MAYBE would be ignored by the bombardment system.

I can maybe believe you could transmit the power without giving off EMR. But that still leaves the issue of what use could you possibly have for it? A single electric motor out of alignment could create a spark gap powerful enough to get detected form orbit. Would be kind of silly to build a factory that could with a single error in maintenance cause the Rakurai to wipe out a continent....

kbus888 wrote:=2014/03/07=

Hi Aegis99

You are correct in that sparking commutators or other fluctuations from out-of-balance motors would generate EM emissions that can be detected by the bombardment system.

But so can the EM from lightening.

I was counting on the EM strengths emitted from lightening and other natural events to mask the EM from out-of-balance motors.

It seems to me the bombardment system control already ignores some pretty strong naturally occurring EM emissions.

Sorry that my original post was incomplete and left so much of my thoughts unstated

The bombardment system sure does ignore natural EMR, but a motor running several hundred RPM is going to give off a regular and ongoing arc if there is a problem. Don't forget that a primitive spark-gap radio powered by plain ole' batteries is capable of being received up to hundreds of miles away (depending on the behavior of your ionosphere.

But, having said all this, if I were Merlin, there is NO WAY I would fool around with electricity before the bobmardment system had been neutralized (just-in-case, you understand) !!

Wise of you I'm sure

keylime314 wrote:
And if that coal plant trips offline due to a problem with the transformers? When the hydro plant runs out of water behind the damn? What if the coal truck gets in a wreck?
Reserve requirements are NOT calculated off generation fuel source, they're calculated off total predicted load. The only time fuel source enters into the equation is to determine how much of it's total capacity a generator can contribute to the reserve.

For more info:
http://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ri/Pages/Pl ... argin.aspx

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=6510


Also Wind doesn't drop to 0 immediately. Again, software that can predict wind turbine output within 10% 24 hours from now, and even better 1 hour from now exists and is in use, literally 2 floors below where I sitting right now, to determine least cost dispatches of generation for the next several days.

An interesting paper I found from one of your links - the "2012 Summer Reliability Assessment" - http://www.nerc.com/files/2012SRA.pdf.

It goes through area by area, and has a look at what each area power supplier lists as their available power sources.

An interesting quote, is from the New York area (top of page 89):
Wind generation is derated 81.9 percent. Solar generation is derated 35 percent. Large hydro is derated 2 percent while run-of-river hydro is derated 45 percent. Landfill gas units are derated 16.6 percent while refuse and wood biomass units are derated 8.1 percent. A comparison of on-peak renewable generation forecasts for the 2011 and 2012 summer season are presented in Figure 38 and Table 51.

Similarly, other area derate renewables by different amounts as well (i.e. for Ontario (page 101) it states On-peak wind capacity is entirely derated throughout the 2012 summer).


So, for the calculation of available power, all power generation is derated - but in general, the more variable renewable power sources are derated heavier then the more reliable coal/nuclear plants.

This is intended as a question, not a contradiction. But why assume that electricity is the trip wire for the bombardment system? I realize that this is implied in the book and assumed in the forums, but why?

Merlin thought that steam could be the trip wire, but it didn't turn out that way... Maybe juice wouldn't trip anything either. Could Merlin test that in the same way he did for steam?

Don

David Weber has said that the Writ links electricity and lightning with lightning being reserved for God and Langhorne.

Plus David Weber has said that for all the history of Safehold, the Inquistition has punished strongly anybody playing around with electricity.

So while nobody within the Inner Circle knows for sure that generation of electricity would trigger the bombardment system *or* awaken whatever is sleeping under the temple, none of them wants to risk finding out for sure.

As for Merlin testing if steam power would trigger the bombardment system or awakening whatever is sleeping under the temple, while steam power was something likely forbidden by the Proscriptions it was also not directly mentioned as being forbidden in the Writ as was electricity.

So it was viewed as safer to test than would be testing the expressed ban on electricity.

Another thing to consider, since the ban on electricity is expressly mentioned in the Writ the vast majority of Reformers would likely see electric power as a "step into heresy".

So based on what David Weber has said, even if the bombardment system (or whatever is under the temple) didn't react to electric power generation, the reaction of the vast majority of people on Safehold, including people loyal to Cayleb, means that electric power generation is a bad idea.

n7axw wrote:This is intended as a question, not a contradiction. But why assume that electricity is the trip wire for the bombardment system? I realize that this is implied in the book and assumed in the forums, but why?

Merlin thought that steam could be the trip wire, but it didn't turn out that way... Maybe juice wouldn't trip anything either. Could Merlin test that in the same way he did for steam?

Don

n7axw wrote:This is intended as a question, not a contradiction. But why assume that electricity is the trip wire for the bombardment system? I realize that this is implied in the book and assumed in the forums, but why?

Merlin thought that steam could be the trip wire, but it didn't turn out that way... Maybe juice wouldn't trip anything either. Could Merlin test that in the same way he did for steam?

Don

Because the Proscriptions explicitly caution against messing with the "Rakurai" (lightning) on pain of divine wrath.

Merlin was pretty sure steam wouldn't trigger anything, otherwise he wouldn't have tried it. The distant island test was just a precaution.

Merlin could do the same thing with electricity -- he doesn't actually know the orbital bombardment system is "on automatic" at all -- but even a strike on some distant island could cause problems if people noticed it. At the very least, it would increase belief in the Writ and make Merlin's job harder, even if it didn't help either the CoC or the CoGA directly.

Aegis99 wrote:

Thucydides wrote:Even in developed nations like Germany or the US (where "Green" has taken root) it is very difficult to deliver the "Green" energy to market.
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If i was Germany I would be more concerned with the 8 days in 2008 where not a single wind turbine in the country generated electricity commercially repeating itself over again as they increase their dependence on wind.

In Europe those windless (or near-windless) days occur mostly in winter when a high-pressure area settles over much of Europe. This has the additional effect of clear days and nights, maximising radiant loss of heat. Consequently, energy demand maximises when generation is at a minimum.