jmseeley wrote:
I think that Dohlar is going to do everything it can to make Evrytyn into another Thesmar. If they lose that the Alliance has a clear shot to invade Dohlar itself. Or they could byass Dohlar and move on Dairnyth instead and shut down the AoGs southern logistics network.
Once the ICN starts serious raiding in the Gulf, Thirsk will face irresistible pressure to move in force, even if he knows he's outmatched. The galleon fleet plus Rottweilers are enough to interdict most of the shipping in the outer Gulf and repel any attack Thirsk can mount. My guess is that they won't go any further until the KH VIIs, the first generation of HE shells and a large Marine force arrive. Then they'll be seeking Thirsk out, as well as doing to every major port on the Gulf what they did to Ferayd.
I think that the ICN still has to be cautious. The RDN has explosive shells and only a few of the ICN ships are armored. No doubt they can win any battle, but the cost could be a lot more that they're willing to pay. I think Thirsk's best response once he encounters the KH VIIs in battle will be to scatter his fleet. The cruisers can easily catch and kill any of his ships, but they can only run down a fraction of them at any given time.
OTOH, if Silkiah flips and the Salthar Canal becomes available then the KH VIIs could be joined by a squadron or two of River-Class. An all-steam, all-armored battle group could pin and kill Thirsk's entire fleet even in Gorath Bay. In fact the Rivers would probably be a lot less vulnerable to the shoals in the bay.
Once the first half-dozen KH VIIs are completed I think Charis need to think about building a class of destroyers - maybe something like the Delthak, but in an ocean-going hull.
jms
Regardless of whether Silkiah flips or not, the Allies need that canal. It would be better to have a negotiated peace with Silkiah, but that might not be possible. In any event by the Spring the next gen River Class boats will be ready and their new 6" BLs will use smokeless powder propellant and explosive filler in the shells. The KH VIIs will also likely use smokeless propellant and shell filler. I am not sure if the troops accompanying the KH VIIs will have smokeless powder rounds initially.
In any case that fleet will need resupply. The more aggressive it plans to be the more it requires to be resupplied. By taking the Salthar Canal, Charis will save a massive amount of cargo shipping. That savings will make taking and holding the Salthar canal worthwhile. Also, if taking the canal means the River Class boats can operate in the Gulf of Dohlar, the benefits of taking it are huge. Silkiah either becomes an ally or another Siddermarkian province. If the latter case, I can see the new Silkian border moving south to just about the latitude of Jahras Island. If Desnair stays in the fight, that border moves further south to include all of the Gulf of Jahras and a swath of land around it as Siddermark continues to recover.
Once the Allies control the Salthar Canal, Dohlar and Desnair are seriously hosed. Sotuhern Harchong might escape much of the potential harm if they keep within Shwei Bay. So long as they don't venture north aggressively to supply Haven with supplies, the ICN might be wise to leave them be. Let South Harchong establish a de jure jihad and de facto neutrality. I don't see how Dohlar escapes a serious disembowelment. What arises from that carcas will be interesting.
