Upcoming Ops (SPOILER)

PeterZ wrote:(SNIP)

Not enough time to turn a new concept into a complex working machine. Yes, the steam powered RDN ship is very unlikely.

What is more likely is that Clyntahn reserves the ability/right to design and build steam engines for the Inquisition. The loyalists can only buy them from the CoGA all other engines would be considered tainted. Magwair will be all for this. I would also suspact that the prospect of gaining control over the steam engine production might push Magwair into supporting Duchairn's coup.

The more I think of it the more convinced I am that Symkyn and the Army of the Daivyn might well be the key in HFQ. If he can trash Kaitswyrth and race up to St. Vyrdyn and Mhartynberg, he can block the the Army oof God and the Archangels from ever entering Siddermark. By controling the canal and high road network, he forces the AoGatA to attck his fixed positions head on. Green Valley can reinforce Symkyn when he arrives.

Yeah, the ICN should hit South Harchong after securing another base closer to Dohlar. Trove island sounds likely enough. Wait for the KH VIIs before going after Dohlar proper. By the time the KH VIIs arrive, there will be two bases to stage attacks from. Heck, while we are at it, why not take dragon island too? There are two possible anchorages there; one on the North side and one on the South side. The ICN can set up bases in both areas.

Once those bases are established, every port city on or near the Gulf is truly exposed. Add the additional forces Corisande represents backed by the KH VIIs and that exposure turns into a gaping hole of vulnerablity for the Jihadists.

A couple of points that I've just realised:
1) Militia/troops under training. The Dohlarian/Desnairian LAMA armies that were destroyed aren't the only force fielded by them Yes, it would have been a majority, but there would have been other garrisons, troops under training and militia left.

So the Harchong armies aren't the only forces the ICA has left to face.


2) Numbers. PeterZ makes a valid proposal about the Army of the Daivyn capturing St. Vyrdyn and Mhartynberg, entrenching and allowing the Harchong forces to beak their teeth on them.

The problem with this, is that exactly as what happened at Thesmar, whenever the ICA sits on the defensive, it allows the AoG to leave a screening force behind and continue to advance. Just because it didn't work at Thesmar, doesn't mean it isn't going to work on the open plains of Siddarmark.

Just one thing to consider - that to help offset the large numerical inferiority, the ICA is going to have to retain the initiative - which means they can't always sit and allow the AoG to attack them, a lot of the time they are going to have to be the attackers.....

The one difference is that those cities straddle the supply routes the AoGatA need to invade. Any force that bypassed those cities could not be resupplied readily. How deep can such a force reach into Siddermark?

No. If they bypass, they open themselves to attacks in the open field. Hit and runs by scout snipers and mobile artillery can wreck an army's day.

MWadwell wrote:
A couple of points that I've just realised:
1) Militia/troops under training. The Dohlarian/Desnairian LAMA armies that were destroyed aren't the only force fielded by them Yes, it would have been a majority, but there would have been other garrisons, troops under training and militia left.

So the Harchong armies aren't the only forces the ICA has left to face.


2) Numbers. PeterZ makes a valid proposal about the Army of the Daivyn capturing St. Vyrdyn and Mhartynberg, entrenching and allowing the Harchong forces to beak their teeth on them.

The problem with this, is that exactly as what happened at Thesmar, whenever the ICA sits on the defensive, it allows the AoG to leave a screening force behind and continue to advance. Just because it didn't work at Thesmar, doesn't mean it isn't going to work on the open plains of Siddarmark.

Just one thing to consider - that to help offset the large numerical inferiority, the ICA is going to have to retain the initiative - which means they can't always sit and allow the AoG to attack them, a lot of the time they are going to have to be the attackers.....

I agree with the need to maintain the Initiative, but I keep thinking that the indirect approach to a strategic goal could be successful. The troops sent to Claw island, and the naval buildup in that theatre could lead to halting the flow of material from South Harchong to the Northern front where the Harchongese Army seems about to engage the ICA, and RSA troops. I remember that industry in the South is more productive than that in the north, cutting the line would erode the temple's ability to supply troops in the field. It would further force Dohlar to divert productive capabilities to their Navy rather than army, again eroding the strength of the south wing of the COGA's armies.

Charis has the strategic movement advantage which could be used to offset manpower disadvantages. Wasn't there an expression " boot them, don't splatter them" (translated from the german) which applies to the situation here.

As to how deep - consider how deep Sherman operated in 1864. (And yes, I know that there are differences - such as Sherman not operating over areas that have been previously fought over or depopulated. But Sherman also didn't have draft dragons either.....)

Also consider the effect of splitting a number of raiding parties off the main AoG army. A couple of columns containing ~5000 men each would be able to perform their own "canal raid" behind the ICA defending army. Even if the column only raided for a fortnight, 7 days into Siddarmark at 40 miles a day is pretty deep....

And finally, concerning the scout snipers/mobile army - that would be up to the screening force to stop the ICA forces from interferring with the raiding forces supply lines.


The whole point, is to try and keep the initiative with the AoG forces.


Later,
Matt

PeterZ wrote:The one difference is that those cities straddle the supply routes the AoGatA need to invade. Any force that bypassed those cities could not be resupplied readily. How deep can such a force reach into Siddermark?

No. If they bypass, they open themselves to attacks in the open field. Hit and runs by scout snipers and mobile artillery can wreck an army's day.

MWadwell wrote:
A couple of points that I've just realised:
1) Militia/troops under training. The Dohlarian/Desnairian LAMA armies that were destroyed aren't the only force fielded by them Yes, it would have been a majority, but there would have been other garrisons, troops under training and militia left.

So the Harchong armies aren't the only forces the ICA has left to face.


2) Numbers. PeterZ makes a valid proposal about the Army of the Daivyn capturing St. Vyrdyn and Mhartynberg, entrenching and allowing the Harchong forces to beak their teeth on them.

The problem with this, is that exactly as what happened at Thesmar, whenever the ICA sits on the defensive, it allows the AoG to leave a screening force behind and continue to advance. Just because it didn't work at Thesmar, doesn't mean it isn't going to work on the open plains of Siddarmark.

Just one thing to consider - that to help offset the large numerical inferiority, the ICA is going to have to retain the initiative - which means they can't always sit and allow the AoG to attack them, a lot of the time they are going to have to be the attackers.....

MWadwell wrote:As to how deep - consider how deep Sherman operated in 1864. (And yes, I know that there are differences - such as Sherman not operating over areas that have been previously fought over or depopulated. But Sherman also didn't have draft dragons either.....)

Also consider the effect of splitting a number of raiding parties off the main AoG army. A couple of columns containing ~5000 men each would be able to perform their own "canal raid" behind the ICA defending army. Even if the column only raided for a fortnight, 7 days into Siddarmark at 40 miles a day is pretty deep....

And finally, concerning the scout snipers/mobile army - that would be up to the screening force to stop the ICA forces from interferring with the raiding forces supply lines.


The whole point, is to try and keep the initiative with the AoG forces.


Later,
Matt

I recall reading Liddle-Hart's description of Sherman's march. He mentioned that Sherman marched towards multiple possible targets. The defenders had to spread themselves out to protect each of them. They did not have enough time to concentrate enough troops before Sherman actually attacked.

The AoGatA might well try that if the Holy Langhorne is blocked by the Allies. The trouble is that Green Valley has real time surveilence of his enemies. Add to this small advantage the ICA dragoons armed with pistols and magazine fed bolt action rifles using metal cartriges, a much better articulated command structure and ...oh, yeah the seijin netowrk for a much shorter command and control loop.

If the AoGatA try to run Sherman's gambit, they would have to move out larger columns. Those are harder to feed by foraging. Not only that by those columns move much more slowly than independant brigades of dragoons. If those AoGatA columns get caught in the open by dragoons with attached mortars, they are chewed up but good. Most of those columns will be armed with muzzle loaders while all of the dragoons will be armed with M96s and cartrige firing revolvers.

Taken altogether, the AoGatA won't be able to avoid the ICA out in the open and they won't have any movement advantage by breaking off into columns. Furthermore, by dispersing their forces, they also disperse their more limited Ferguson rifles. There will be fewer to defend against attacks on their base along the Holy Langhorne as well as a greater percentage of muzzle loaders in their side columns. Which suggests that Green valley would be taking the strategic offensive and tactical defensive by blocking the Holy Langhorne at St. Vyrdyn and Mhartynberg. This ploy would force the AoGatA to go into the open where Green Valley's advantages in movement, intelligence and firepower would be better employed against relatively bitesized columns.

ChronicRder wrote
Plus, they got lucky with the specs on the open hearth furnaces and some other designs. Good for them.

Could be that OWL became aware of the contents of the stolen pouch--and changed the info.

We spend a lot of time comparing this war to the American Civil War and the World Wars. Why not look at this from the perspective of the Meiji Restoration of the 1860s. True we're beyond that point in technology by now by the political situation is very similar.

For those that are not familiar with Japanese history, the Meiji Restoration/Revolution was revolution fought between the Tokugawa Shogunate loyalists and the Imperial Revolutionaries. The Shogunate had been in power since the Battle of Sekigahara in 1600 and set up the period of isolationism that the Japanese are so well known for.--and a perception that persists to this day. In the 1800's the West tried to pry the ports of Japan open--most notably US Commodore Matthew Perry's sail into Tokyo (then Edo) Bay.

In the Revolution you had the side of the Emperor who fought with Western style modern armies and navies vs the Shogunate's traditional (by that I mean matchlocks, swords, spears, and archers) samurai. With predictable results in that the Shogunate lost the war very quickly taking atrocious loses in almost every battle it fought. You could liken that to the Proscription based Safehold world RFC has set up for us.

This is a much abbreviated version of the situation in Japan at that time and how things unfolded. However, it might offer a better vantage point on how this Holy War on Charis will unfold and what exactly the stakes are.

To put the CoGA into perspective in this conflict, let's say they represent the Shogunate. The Shodunate had a secret police called the Shinsengumi. With the war dragging on despite the obvious writing on the wall, the Shinsengumi's second in command Hijikata Toshizo can be quoted saying "I am not going to battle to win. With the Tokugawa government about to collapse, it would be a disgrace if no one is willing to go down with it. That is why I must go. I will fight the best battle of my life to die for the country."

On a personal note, that's also one of my favorite quotes out of the era.

Thanks for bringing up Sherman, Matt. That got me thinking about the summer campaign in Dohlar.

We know the King Haarald's are headed to the Gulf of Dohlar. I suspect that the ICN will be picking up Koryn Gahrvai and some ICA recuits from Corisande. I wouldn't be surprised if the Grand Duke of Zebediah accompanied those troops. What could Windshare and Gahrvai do with dragoons armed with revolvers and bolt action magazine fed rifles let loose in the Dohlaran rear?
They could make Sherman look like a piker.

The dragoons could operate further inland while the infantry could use the galleons and schooners to bounce along the coast just like Cayleb did in Corisande. That would force the Dohlarans not to reinforce Ahlverez or even call Ahlverez back further into Dohlar assuming he survives the winter.

Regardless of what happens to Ahlverez, Rychtyr will face Delthak armed with the new 6"/45 rifled BLs. Rychtyr doesn't have anything that can scratch the ironclad's armor. His best bet is to blow the locks and fall back. Trouble is that he will be in the open where the longer ranged ICA angle guns will chop his artillery to shreds. Then the ICA advantages in rate of fire and number of troops will chew up the rest of Rychtyr's command.

If the ICA manages to secure the Salthar canal in one piece, Charis' logistics become so much easier. That and the river class boats will be operating around Salthar Bay cutting off Desnair from the Haven. I wonder if Cayleb will settle for penning South Harchong in Shwei Bay? So long as they keep their supplies on Howard, they aren't really threatening Charis or Siddermark. Besides, a powerful South Harchong might well decide to target Desnair after the jihad is lost by the CoGA. This will direct the attention of almost half of Safehold away from Charis.

In any case Dohlar is soon going to be toast and Thirsk will have to act. I wonder what action he is planning.

MWadwell wrote:As to how deep - consider how deep Sherman operated in 1864. (And yes, I know that there are differences - such as Sherman not operating over areas that have been previously fought over or depopulated. But Sherman also didn't have draft dragons either.....)

Also consider the effect of splitting a number of raiding parties off the main AoG army. A couple of columns containing ~5000 men each would be able to perform their own "canal raid" behind the ICA defending army. Even if the column only raided for a fortnight, 7 days into Siddarmark at 40 miles a day is pretty deep....

And finally, concerning the scout snipers/mobile army - that would be up to the screening force to stop the ICA forces from interferring with the raiding forces supply lines.


The whole point, is to try and keep the initiative with the AoG forces.


Later,
Matt

PeterZ wrote:Thanks for bringing up Sherman, Matt. That got me thinking about the summer campaign in Dohlar.

We know the King Haarald's are headed to the Gulf of Dohlar. I suspect that the ICN will be picking up Koryn Gahrvai and some ICA recuits from Corisande. I wouldn't be surprised if the Grand Duke of Zebediah accompanied those troops. What could Windshare and Gahrvai do with dragoons armed with revolvers and bolt action magazine fed rifles let loose in the Dohlaran rear?
They could make Sherman look like a piker.

The dragoons could operate further inland while the infantry could use the galleons and schooners to bounce along the coast just like Cayleb did in Corisande. That would force the Dohlarans not to reinforce Ahlverez or even call Ahlverez back further into Dohlar assuming he survives the winter.

Regardless of what happens to Ahlverez, Rychtyr will face Delthak armed with the new 6"/45 rifled BLs. Rychtyr doesn't have anything that can scratch the ironclad's armor. His best bet is to blow the locks and fall back. Trouble is that he will be in the open where the longer ranged ICA angle guns will chop his artillery to shreds. Then the ICA advantages in rate of fire and number of troops will chew up the rest of Rychtyr's command.

If the ICA manages to secure the Salthar canal in one piece, Charis' logistics become so much easier. That and the river class boats will be operating around Salthar Bay cutting off Desnair from the Haven. I wonder if Cayleb will settle for penning South Harchong in Shwei Bay? So long as they keep their supplies on Howard, they aren't really threatening Charis or Siddermark. Besides, a powerful South Harchong might well decide to target Desnair after the jihad is lost by the CoGA. This will direct the attention of almost half of Safehold away from Charis.

In any case Dohlar is soon going to be toast and Thirsk will have to act. I wonder what action he is planning.

I think that Dohlar is going to do everything it can to make Evrytyn into another Thesmar. If they lose that the Alliance has a clear shot to invade Dohlar itself. Or they could byass Dohlar and move on Dairnyth instead and shut down the AoGs southern logistics network.

Once the ICN starts serious raiding in the Gulf, Thirsk will face irresistible pressure to move in force, even if he knows he's outmatched. The galleon fleet plus Rottweilers are enough to interdict most of the shipping in the outer Gulf and repel any attack Thirsk can mount. My guess is that they won't go any further until the KH VIIs, the first generation of HE shells and a large Marine force arrive. Then they'll be seeking Thirsk out, as well as doing to every major port on the Gulf what they did to Ferayd.

I think that the ICN still has to be cautious. The RDN has explosive shells and only a few of the ICN ships are armored. No doubt they can win any battle, but the cost could be a lot more that they're willing to pay. I think Thirsk's best response once he encounters the KH VIIs in battle will be to scatter his fleet. The cruisers can easily catch and kill any of his ships, but they can only run down a fraction of them at any given time.

OTOH, if Silkiah flips and the Salthar Canal becomes available then the KH VIIs could be joined by a squadron or two of River-Class. An all-steam, all-armored battle group could pin and kill Thirsk's entire fleet even in Gorath Bay. In fact the Rivers would probably be a lot less vulnerable to the shoals in the bay.

Once the first half-dozen KH VIIs are completed I think Charis need to think about building a class of destroyers - maybe something like the Delthak, but in an ocean-going hull.

jms

The idea of steam warships lighter than the 11,000 ton 10inch King Haarald battleships has already been discussed elsewhere. RFC created 3 theoretical designs of heavy and light cruisers, the 8 inch-armed Hurricane, 6in Maikelberg and 5in Comet classes, you can find them in page 6 of the thread below. The specs of the ríver ironclads can also be found in that thread, a couple of pages later on.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=4116

jmseeley wrote:OTOH, if Silkiah flips and the Salthar Canal becomes available then the KH VIIs could be joined by a squadron or two of River-Class. An all-steam, all-armored battle group could pin and kill Thirsk's entire fleet even in Gorath Bay. In fact the Rivers would probably be a lot less vulnerable to the shoals in the bay.

Once the first half-dozen KH VIIs are completed I think Charis need to think about building a class of destroyers - maybe something like the Delthak, but in an ocean-going hull.

jms