Upcoming Ops (SPOILER)

PeterZ wrote:

jmseeley wrote:snip

The Allies have a different problem. Between Hanth, Eastshare, and the Army of Cliff Peak they'll have almost 200,000 men, plus a couple River-Class gunships. Their problem is that they have 2 possible targets: Dohlaran forces centered on Evrytyn and Kaitswyrth in Aivahnstyn. Both those forces are badly damaged and shaken but far enough apart that both can't be taken quickly and both are being reinforced as rapidly as possible. Whichever target the Alliance picks, the other will reinforce and reequip.

snip

jms

Not sure I agree here at all. I just finished the first re-read. A few of things jump out at me.

1) Green Valley will either hit Wyrshym before Spring at Guarnak or Wyrshym pulls back to Lakeside right away to avoid getting crushed. Either way Green Valley will be pushing towards Tarikah come Spring.

2) The Army of Cliff Peak, Eastshare's Army of the Brannath and Hanth's reinforcements can force the forces around Evrytyn and Alykberg to withdraw. They besiege the cities and send the mounted brigades back along the canals to cut off the flow of supplies.

3) Kaitswyrth has to withdraw back up north or down south to avoid being completely cut off from his supply lines. He is better off going south and regrouping at Dairnyth. Symkyn's(?) will push him come Spring.

Taken all together, the Southern armies are better off concentrating on reclaiming the canals leading into Dohlar and Dairnyth first. That means bouncing Rychtair and Ahlverez back to Dohlar or into POW camps. Once those canals are secure, they can send forces to trash Kaitswyrth and accompany Symkyns up towards Tarikah.

With the Dreadnought et al worrying Dohlar about attacks along its coastline and Desnair pretty much out of it, what additional forces are available to send into Siddermark? I believe doghlar will focus on building their version of the Maginot line to prevent Siddermark from invading. Good luck!

Come Summer with Koryn's Corsiandian ICA contingent tagging along, the KH VIIs will crush the RDN while Gahrvai and Windshare will wreak havoc along the Dohlaran coast. King Rahnyld will be caught between the Scylla of Eastshare and Charybdis of the ICN.

I think that the ICN may concentrate on interdicting South Harchong at first. From Duchairn and Magwair's conversation that's actually the more productive part of the Empire. That would pretty much force Thirsk to sally in force with a major fleet action to follow. I'd expect Charis to win, but part of Thirsk's fleet survives to withdraw and significant damage to Charis more traditional galleons (the Rotweiler's can't do it all, after all). That would delay a final meeting until late summer, after the KH VIIIs join the fleet.

Wild card possibility: The Church now has a functional description of a steam engine. If anyone can quickly convert that into a working model, it's Lt. Zhwaigair. It would be crude and inefficient, but putting it into a Crank Galley could create a pretty effective defensive boat (especially combined with one or two spoilery items RFC let slip). Very unlikely, but I like the possibility. More likely, he puts the available information together (Armored deepwater ships plus steam engine) and lets Thirsk know what's coming for his fleet.

Actually, if Dohlar loses Evrytyn they might ask for terms then, while their country's still intact.

jms

tootall wrote:Damonby Wrote

If Alvarez' army is trapped between Thesmar and Evertyn and cut off from supply, they are toast.

Agree-AND, I think they (we?) have to "take" that army out of the war. Too many battle hardened soldiers. And Alvarez is such a better commander than he was.

True, although Ahlverez forces haven't had time to really absorb the lessons yet (too busy trying to not get dead). But the Alliance will certainly try to kill that force before it gets to Evrytyn and forts up. The question is whether they can get to it in time.

jms

jmseeley wrote:(SNIP)

Wild card possibility: The Church now has a functional description of a steam engine. If anyone can quickly convert that into a working model, it's Lt. Zhwaigair. It would be crude and inefficient, but putting it into a Crank Galley could create a pretty effective defensive boat (especially combined with one or two spoilery items RFC let slip). Very unlikely, but I like the possibility. More likely, he puts the available information together (Armored deepwater ships plus steam engine) and lets Thirsk know what's coming for his fleet.

I agree that that's the best outcome from the Temple's POV.

However, as you point out - it's very unlikely.

With Clyntahn already disliking Thirsk, it is unlikely that he will feed him the information about the steam engines - especially when Maigwair has Brother Fultyn available close by....

Brother Fulton...

Groan.

MWadwell wrote:

jmseeley wrote:(SNIP)

Wild card possibility: The Church now has a functional description of a steam engine. If anyone can quickly convert that into a working model, it's Lt. Zhwaigair. It would be crude and inefficient, but putting it into a Crank Galley could create a pretty effective defensive boat (especially combined with one or two spoilery items RFC let slip). Very unlikely, but I like the possibility. More likely, he puts the available information together (Armored deepwater ships plus steam engine) and lets Thirsk know what's coming for his fleet.

I agree that that's the best outcome from the Temple's POV.

However, as you point out - it's very unlikely.

With Clyntahn already disliking Thirsk, it is unlikely that he will feed him the information about the steam engines - especially when Maigwair has Brother Fultyn available close by....

phillies wrote:Brother Fulton...

Groan.

MWadwell wrote:I agree that that's the best outcome from the Temple's POV.

However, as you point out - it's very unlikely.

With Clyntahn already disliking Thirsk, it is unlikely that he will feed him the information about the steam engines - especially when Maigwair has Brother Fultyn available close by....

Although there is the fact that Clyntahn distrusts Fultyn almost as much as he distrusts Thirsk. His discussion with Rayno makes that clear. In spite of the fact that Fultyn is developing the weapons he needs, he can't wait to get rid of him. Perhaps the assassination or attempted assassination of Fultyn will be the signal to take down Clyntahn. It would definitely be the one thing that would turn Maigwair against Clyntahn.

MWadwell wrote:

jmseeley wrote:(SNIP)

Wild card possibility: The Church now has a functional description of a steam engine. If anyone can quickly convert that into a working model, it's Lt. Zhwaigair. It would be crude and inefficient, but putting it into a Crank Galley could create a pretty effective defensive boat (especially combined with one or two spoilery items RFC let slip). Very unlikely, but I like the possibility. More likely, he puts the available information together (Armored deepwater ships plus steam engine) and lets Thirsk know what's coming for his fleet.

I agree that that's the best outcome from the Temple's POV.

However, as you point out - it's very unlikely.

With Clyntahn already disliking Thirsk, it is unlikely that he will feed him the information about the steam engines - especially when Maigwair has Brother Fultyn available close by....

The steam engine may be just too far out of Clyntahn's comfort zone for him to permit it, and by the time he gets desperate enough it's too late. Maybe mount one in a crank galley and use it as a Rakauri.

jms

ChronicRder wrote:++SNIP++
but the don't have the numbers to occupy Desnair, Delferahk, Sodar, South Harchong and the Border States in addition to taking the war to Zion on its own Temple Lands.

Economics will defeat those ares (or convert them). The Transport of goods in general will be at the will of the EoC. Effective use of the oceans is shut down. Overland is not competitive and slow.


[/quote]
++SNIP++


Logistics wouldn't be an issue with the ICN at their back and the relative ease of defeating the Border states in a pincer movement. With the Temple under siege and the strong garrison/delaying force in Zion preventing any meaningful Harchong reinforcement, setting up a similar position to that of Ceasar's at Alesia. They could force the outcome of the war on Charisian terms instead of smashing each individual force the Church sends, however entertaining that is to read--remember how a similar operation worked for the Germans in WWII.

What are y'alls thoughts?[/quote]

The Riverboats will be shutting down all traffic in the Northern passage and the Rottweilers will cleans the seas around Dohlar.

The Harchong Army needs to be turned around and sent home, to Dohlar, to Zion but that effort will cost a lot of Allied deaths unless something new comes up.

The Chisholm nobles rebelling has been foreshadowed almost since the end of the Corsisande rebellion. And I bet RFC has finally given them enough rope (to borrow the words of our master story teller). You could possibly argue the foreshadowing goes back to By Heresies Distressed. Not feeling ambitious enough right now to hunt down the beginning of the foreshadow, but would venture a guess that plot line comes to a satisfying head (like a good itch) in the next book or two. Sadly (or you could say pathetically) I'm almost drooling in anticipation at Cayleb and Sharleyan wiping the floor with them. It must be one of my many evil character flaws, I did whoop and holler to Nimue kicking bodyguard butt and cackle to the idea of Cayleb and Merlin watching the replay like you would of someone loosing control after being power bounced on a trampoline without the surrounding curtain (one leg in, one leg out... eyes roll up in the back of the head)on YouTube.

jmseeley wrote:I think that the ICN may concentrate on interdicting South Harchong at first. From Duchairn and Magwair's conversation that's actually the more productive part of the Empire. That would pretty much force Thirsk to sally in force with a major fleet action to follow. I'd expect Charis to win, but part of Thirsk's fleet survives to withdraw and significant damage to Charis more traditional galleons (the Rotweiler's can't do it all, after all). That would delay a final meeting until late summer, after the KH VIIIs join the fleet.

Wild card possibility: The Church now has a functional description of a steam engine. If anyone can quickly convert that into a working model, it's Lt. Zhwaigair. It would be crude and inefficient, but putting it into a Crank Galley could create a pretty effective defensive boat (especially combined with one or two spoilery items RFC let slip). Very unlikely, but I like the possibility. More likely, he puts the available information together (Armored deepwater ships plus steam engine) and lets Thirsk know what's coming for his fleet.

Actually, if Dohlar loses Evrytyn they might ask for terms then, while their country's still intact.

jms

Not enough time to turn a new concept into a complex working machine. Yes, the steam powered RDN ship is very unlikely.

What is more likely is that Clyntahn reserves the ability/right to design and build steam engines for the Inquisition. The loyalists can only buy them from the CoGA all other engines would be considered tainted. Magwair will be all for this. I would also suspact that the prospect of gaining control over the steam engine production might push Magwair into supporting Duchairn's coup.

The more I think of it the more convinced I am that Symkyn and the Army of the Daivyn might well be the key in HFQ. If he can trash Kaitswyrth and race up to St. Vyrdyn and Mhartynberg, he can block the the Army oof God and the Archangels from ever entering Siddermark. By controling the canal and high road network, he forces the AoGatA to attck his fixed positions head on. Green Valley can reinforce Symkyn when he arrives.

Yeah, the ICN should hit South Harchong after securing another base closer to Dohlar. Trove island sounds likely enough. Wait for the KH VIIs before going after Dohlar proper. By the time the KH VIIs arrive, there will be two bases to stage attacks from. Heck, while we are at it, why not take dragon island too? There are two possible anchorages there; one on the North side and one on the South side. The ICN can set up bases in both areas.

Once those bases are established, every port city on or near the Gulf is truly exposed. Add the additional forces Corisande represents backed by the KH VIIs and that exposure turns into a gaping hole of vulnerablity for the Jihadists.

Taking a momentary step back from actual operations, I've noticed several on the Forum compare certain aspects of Safehold to Honorverse, especially the Thirsk-Bishop (forgot his name) being similar to the Thomas Theisman-Denis LePic situation. While comparing works by the same author is expected, I find the situations completely different. In Honorverse, everyone at least had the same stand of weights and measures--EVEN GRAYSON!!-- something only Old Charis has (though they're quickly rectifying that throughout its Empire). Also the balance of power is quite different. Where I can see a comparison being made between the EoC and the SKoM--and likewise the Roh/PRoH and the CoGA--in that war Haven had outside help from the Solarean League via Manpower. In Safehold, a scenario has been set up that would have been a planetary war between Manticore and Haven--without the Solarean League or Manpower being involved (in fact neither of those entities exist).

Now, I heart the naysayers saying "well what about the Archangels and their space station" as a Sword of Damocles? Fine, they exist as placeholders at best...until they wake up. But that's in the future and does nothing to change the situation the Loyalists face on Safehold now.

Back to operations.

Honestly, the only threat that really remains is Harchong. If the ICN harasses the Southern part of Harchong then you can write off the more populous North. They're landlocked--thanks to the ICN--and have no industrial might worth mentioning. It'd be the USSR in WWII if they lost the Ural mountains. Let them have all the bio-balls of infantry they want, they wouldn't be able to support it and they'd need body bags as much or more than modern rifles.

Dohlar. Thirsk is making headway with his R&D and Ahleverez has 20,000 combat hardened troops in full retreat. The other Dohlaran army holding the center of the CoGA's salient in the RoS is about to his block knocked off faster than he can count to 10 by the pinning force the allies left at Thesmar. Even if Eastshare lets Ahleverez go, what will Dohlar do with them? They cannot go back on the offense after their other army is ripped to ribbons and the Dohlar King will want Ahleverez's men as his personal bodyguard. That will further limit Thirk's options, esp after the recapture of Claw Island by the ICN.

Desnair. Pride cuts the deepest, hardest, and quickest. They'll be stunned to inaction, regardless of what the Inquisitors do for some five-days, perhaps a month or two. That's after the news of their crushing defeat reaches them. By that time, they'll be isolated, penned up in the homeland effectively out of the war.

That leaves the CoGA itself (Zion, Temple LAnds, and the Border States). Lest we forget, they're always playing catch up with the allies, and Old Charis in particular. Granted they come up with different versions of Charisian tech, perhaps even better designs, but Charis is already 2+ steps beyond them. Plus, they got lucky with the specs on the open hearth furnaces and some other designs. Good for them. They still have a Guild system and not a uniform standard of weights and measures to make it useful on a mass scale. Bad for them. Perhaps that even neutralizes the benefit of them getting the plans to begin with?
That completely rules out the fact that they're strongest (industrially speaking) ally is about to be handed three defeats, possible 4 if Ahleverez is caught in the open, in rapid succession. They're hedge against Dohlar (and Thirsk) doing anything crazy was Desnair. They were also defeat in de--screw it--they were slaughtered utterly. They're leader even found an easy way out and died to a heart-attack before he knew what the situation really was. That still ignores the fact that their army in the North, the AoS is about to get trounced by Green Valley.
Yet, they still have a mighty host of 1 million modern Harchong troops being rushed to the front. Modern they may be, but the problem is they still have different suppliers from amounst the Loyalist nations. Meaning repairing equipment and supplying uniform ammunition is going to be a chore for them. Plus its a 1 million man paper weight until they're tested in battle.

Time is a fickle mistress in Safehold. Despite the argument RFC makes in his books, time is on the side of the Charisians right now. The things under the temple won't wake up for another 20-odd years. If the Church holds out that long, I'd be shocked. However, if they do, then the millenium time hack becomes a tangible factor. On the battlefield, the Church is moving to allied tunes. I don't see them giving up their momentum anytime soon.
For right now though, press the advantage and take Zion and the Temple within the next couple years and neutralize the millenium problem before it even becomes one.

I really think people are over-estimating the CoGA and its Loyalist nations and underestimating the allies by having a all-things-being-equal mindset. Safehold was founded on the very premise of things not being equal in order to impede and rout out industrial and political development.