Upcoming Ops (SPOILER)

jmseeley wrote:
I just don't see straight up conquest as the most effective way to kill the Church. The cost is just too high. Far better to fatally weaken it and let it die a natural death or to mutate beyond all recognition. It takes longer, but it's no less complete. In losing the war, the Church loses the one thing it can't do without - the universal belief that the Church is Gods instrument in the world and therefore He won't let it lose.

jms

Yup, defeat the AoG and prove the CoGA's impotence to enforce any of its policies beyond the borders of the Temple Lands. This might be accomplished by controling the Gulf of Dohlar and securing access through the Salthar-Silk Town Canal. If Charis controls the Gulf and can resupply its bases there through the Canal, the CoGA cannot project any force wirth mentioning from Haven to Howard.

If the CoGA cannot compel its subject nations to follow CoGA policy, how long will those nations continue to listen to the CoGA? Not long at all. That's the weapon Clyntahn fears the most. If Charis can persuade the rest of Safehold that ignoring the CoGA carries no immediate physical consequences, the CoGA is doomed as the transnational authority of Safehold.

ChronicRder wrote:With the defeats taken in LAMA and the next next defeat of the AoS by Green Valley in the opening parts of the next book, all immediate threats to the EoC and RoS have been eliminated. O sure, one last CoGA army remains active in Siddermark, but he's heavily isolated and caught between a vice of three allied armies maneuvering around him, he can't do much besides surrender or die a glorious death in the name of Mother Church.
The big thing here is that effectively the only part of the RoS still under Church control is the Holy Langhorne. Dohlar, Silkiah (to the extent that they partooko) and Desnair have been dealt body blows. The only real powerhouse left to he Church is Harchong. And that's more of 1920-30s USSR. The allies have to deal with Dohlar and Desnair while they can. This is why I proposed sending one of their armies into the natural bottleneck Dohlar and Silkiah offer. It neutralizes Desnair's "mobility" and sets up a Thermopylae situation favoring Charis and the RoS.
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I wonder how Charis will continue to innovate when its life is no longer hanging by a thread.

I think Desnair is effectively out of the war. Their navy was destroyed more than a year ago and what's left is focused on harrasing attacks. If anything, their field army has been destroyed even more completely. A slave/serf based economy isn't going to rebuild that anytime soon. Any army they have left will be concentrating on defense. It wouldn't surprise me if they withdrew from Silkiah voluntarily to create a buffer.

Dohlar is another matter. Assuming Ahlverez survives and makes it to Evrytyn, Dohlar will reinforce him with everything they can lay their hands on. That's basically the gateway to their country and they have to hold it. Ahlverez has just had a post-graduate course on storming fortifications, so look for him to start digging like a badger on meth.

The Allies have a different problem. Between Hanth, Eastshare, and the Army of Cliff Peak they'll have almost 200,000 men, plus a couple River-Class gunships. Their problem is that they have 2 possible targets: Dohlaran forces centered on Evrytyn and Kaitswyrth in Aivahnstyn. Both those forces are badly damaged and shaken but far enough apart that both can't be taken quickly and both are being reinforced as rapidly as possible. Whichever target the Alliance picks, the other will reinforce and reequip.

As to your question about innovation after the war, I'm not worried about that. The whole world's just seen what innovation did for Charis, so at least some countries (Dohlar, Siddarmark) will follow. Siddarmark because it will help them rebuild, Dohlar because they're ambitious. Charis will continue to innovate, although the focus may shift to internal development. Remember that the Inner Circle knows what the ultimate goal is, and just how far they have to go. As they lead, the rest of the world will feel they have no choice but to follow, even though they don't know the destination.

jms

PeterZ wrote:

jmseeley wrote:
I just don't see straight up conquest as the most effective way to kill the Church. The cost is just too high. Far better to fatally weaken it and let it die a natural death or to mutate beyond all recognition. It takes longer, but it's no less complete. In losing the war, the Church loses the one thing it can't do without - the universal belief that the Church is Gods instrument in the world and therefore He won't let it lose.

jms

Yup, defeat the AoG and prove the CoGA's impotence to enforce any of its policies beyond the borders of the Temple Lands. This might be accomplished by controling the Gulf of Dohlar and securing access through the Salthar-Silk Town Canal. If Charis controls the Gulf and can resupply its bases there through the Canal, the CoGA cannot project any force wirth mentioning from Haven to Howard.

If the CoGA cannot compel its subject nations to follow CoGA policy, how long will those nations continue to listen to the CoGA? Not long at all. That's the weapon Clyntahn fears the most. If Charis can persuade the rest of Safehold that ignoring the CoGA carries no immediate physical consequences, the CoGA is doomed as the transnational authority of Safehold.

Which of course means that Safehold geopolitics will start looking a bit like 19th century Europe. Charis may be the foremost power, but it doesn't have the manpower to replace the CoGA as planetary hegemon.

jms

jmseeley wrote:
Which of course means that Safehold geopolitics will start looking a bit like 19th century Europe. Charis may be the foremost power, but it doesn't have the manpower to replace the CoGA as planetary hegemon.

jms

That's a very good state of affairs until the truth comes out. The competition will drive innovation and no one power will be hands down king of the hill.

jmseeley wrote:snip

The Allies have a different problem. Between Hanth, Eastshare, and the Army of Cliff Peak they'll have almost 200,000 men, plus a couple River-Class gunships. Their problem is that they have 2 possible targets: Dohlaran forces centered on Evrytyn and Kaitswyrth in Aivahnstyn. Both those forces are badly damaged and shaken but far enough apart that both can't be taken quickly and both are being reinforced as rapidly as possible. Whichever target the Alliance picks, the other will reinforce and reequip.

snip

jms

Not sure I agree here at all. I just finished the first re-read. A few of things jump out at me.

1) Green Valley will either hit Wyrshym before Spring at Guarnak or Wyrshym pulls back to Lakeside right away to avoid getting crushed. Either way Green Valley will be pushing towards Tarikah come Spring.

2) The Army of Cliff Peak, Eastshare's Army of the Brannath and Hanth's reinforcements can force the forces around Evrytyn and Alykberg to withdraw. They besiege the cities and send the mounted brigades back along the canals to cut off the flow of supplies.

3) Kaitswyrth has to withdraw back up north or down south to avoid being completely cut off from his supply lines. He is better off going south and regrouping at Dairnyth. Symkyn's(?) will push him come Spring.

Taken all together, the Southern armies are better off concentrating on reclaiming the canals leading into Dohlar and Dairnyth first. That means bouncing Rychtair and Ahlverez back to Dohlar or into POW camps. Once those canals are secure, they can send forces to trash Kaitswyrth and accompany Symkyns up towards Tarikah.

With the Dreadnought et al worrying Dohlar about attacks along its coastline and Desnair pretty much out of it, what additional forces are available to send into Siddermark? I believe doghlar will focus on building their version of the Maginot line to prevent Siddermark from invading. Good luck!

Come Summer with Koryn's Corsiandian ICA contingent tagging along, the KH VIIs will crush the RDN while Gahrvai and Windshare will wreak havoc along the Dohlaran coast. King Rahnyld will be caught between the Scylla of Eastshare and Charybdis of the ICN.

PeterZ wrote:
Not sure I agree here at all. I just finished the first re-read. A few of things jump out at me.

1) Green Valley will either hit Wyrshym before Spring at Guarnak or Wyrshym pulls back to Lakeside right away to avoid getting crushed. Either way Green Valley will be pushing towards Tarikah come Spring.

2) The Army of Cliff Peak, Eastshare's Army of the Brannath and Hanth's reinforcements can force the forces around Evrytyn and Alykberg to withdraw. They besiege the cities and send the mounted brigades back along the canals to cut off the flow of supplies.

3) Kaitswyrth has to withdraw back up north or down south to avoid being completely cut off from his supply lines. He is better off going south and regrouping at Dairnyth. Symkyn's(?) will push him come Spring.

Taken all together, the Southern armies are better off concentrating on reclaiming the canals leading into Dohlar and Dairnyth first. That means bouncing Rychtair and Ahlverez back to Dohlar or into POW camps. Once those canals are secure, they can send forces to trash Kaitswyrth and accompany Symkyns up towards Tarikah.

With the Dreadnought et al worrying Dohlar about attacks along its coastline and Desnair pretty much out of it, what additional forces are available to send into Siddermark? I believe doghlar will focus on building their version of the Maginot line to prevent Siddermark from invading. Good luck!

Come Summer with Koryn's Corsiandian ICA contingent tagging along, the KH VIIs will crush the RDN while Gahrvai and Windshare will wreak havoc along the Dohlaran coast. King Rahnyld will be caught between the Scylla of Eastshare and Charybdis of the ICN.

Hi PeterZ,

I think that you have a lot of great points in this post. What could also happen in the near term is Alvarez' escape march could be stopped using the "sejiin" network to vector pursuing troops into intercept position. If Alvarez' army is trapped between Thesmar and Evertyn and cut off from supply, they are toast.

With such a complete wipeout of the aristocracy of Dolhar and Desnair, their military ability is probably going to be severely restricted for the next year or so, giving the ICA time to deal with the AoG and the Harchongese. For them to create new armies would require a complete rethink of their social framework.

I don't see a negotiated end to this war. Anywhere the Inquisition can reach will be so under the heel of the church that renewed conflict is inevitable. I am not sure how far down the church hierarchy leadership would have to be killed to allow the church to give up.

Damonby Wrote

If Alvarez' army is trapped between Thesmar and Evertyn and cut off from supply, they are toast.

Agree-AND, I think they (we?) have to "take" that army out of the war. Too many battle hardened soldiers. And Alvarez is such a better commander than he was.

Hi,
I'm just about reading LAMA and this theard and I'm thinking about a few possible outcomes of Jihad - suggested rather by how RFC wrote his other books (especially Honor) than real-life tactics, to be frank.

First of all, let's consider Dolhar. It's the most innovative of Jihand's forces, produces the most weapons and has characters that we can sympathize with. Frankly, the more I read about Thrisk and his archbishop (what was his name? Can't remember), the more they remind me of Theisman (Thrisk) and his commissar (archbishop) from HH with dolahran inventor (forgotten the name) in place of Sharon Foraker, and I guess we all know how this ended up . Furthermore, after Alvarez's disastrous cooperation with Deisnarian forces left him disgusted - and much more friendly towards Thrisk. I can see those two coordinating together, although whether they manage to overthrow current king is a matter of discussion.
Anyway, IMO something will definitely happen in Dolahr, and it will happen soon. In best-case scenario, Alvarez and Thrisk overthrow current gonverment and one crowns himself, or maybe adopts Siddamarkian ways of ruling. Then they try to sneak out of war with EoC - or outright ally themselves with Empire. In worst-case scenario they begin revolution (two separate, maybe?) and it meets huge problems, meaning that Dolahr finds itself stuck in the middle of civil war. Either way, EoC wins and its most dangerous foe is put down.

Now, Duchairn. There's that matter of message from Wyllsyn he got in Heresy or Schism. It may encourage him to overthrow Clyntahn or at least try. In this case, scenario would be similar as in Dolahr - either his victory and subsequent parley with Charis or bloody mess in Temple. That last thing might eventually awake whatever-it-is-under-the-Temple, which, frankly, would be disastrous.
However, I don't really think Duchairn would be able to pull something like that off, despite his character development during Jihad. He doesn't strike me as that kind of a person. On the other hand, RFC's sympathetic characters tend to end up on the same side, so maybe?

The last unknown factor is Aivah and her intentions. IMO she might either get rid of Rayno and Clynthan, thus creating the opening Duchairn needs, or... surprise us completely.

Damonby wrote:Hi PeterZ,

I think that you have a lot of great points in this post. What could also happen in the near term is Alvarez' escape march could be stopped using the "sejiin" network to vector pursuing troops into intercept position. If Alvarez' army is trapped between Thesmar and Evertyn and cut off from supply, they are toast.

With such a complete wipeout of the aristocracy of Dolhar and Desnair, their military ability is probably going to be severely restricted for the next year or so, giving the ICA time to deal with the AoG and the Harchongese. For them to create new armies would require a complete rethink of their social framework.

I don't see a negotiated end to this war. Anywhere the Inquisition can reach will be so under the heel of the church that renewed conflict is inevitable. I am not sure how far down the church hierarchy leadership would have to be killed to allow the church to give up.

You bring up a most intriguing possibility, Damonby. In order for the Inquisition to maintain control in the foreseeable future, they will have to control the new technology. That means they have to bless the blueprints for the steam engines, any new guns and other devices or processes. Think about it as a corrupt patent office; one submits an idea and pays to get it blessed. The office also gets a cut of the liscence fees. Unless they can maintain control of innovative ideas, the inquisition has no chance in hell of controling anything.

Depending on who replaces Clyntahn this scenario just might manifest. Feed the CoGA's basic corruption to Merlin's purpose.

PeterZ wrote:

jmseeley wrote:
Which of course means that Safehold geopolitics will start looking a bit like 19th century Europe. Charis may be the foremost power, but it doesn't have the manpower to replace the CoGA as planetary hegemon.

jms

That's a very good state of affairs until the truth comes out. The competition will drive innovation and no one power will be hands down king of the hill.

I can see a fair number of smaller wars happening without the CoGA to restrain them. For example Dohlar might start to encroach on Desnair - they're weaker, they have lots of resources, and there's already bad blood between them. And Silkiah is probably not long for this world. Or I could be wrong and the larger countries may break up on their own. Any country with 'Empire' in its name has internal fault lines built in. Or booth of these processes could happen at the same time. Not to mention the social disruption from rapid modernization. Anyway, interesting times ahead, I think.

jms