Upcoming Ops (SPOILER)

jmseeley wrote:
What if Charis preemptively offers terms?

It seems to me that Charis is far more likely to preemptively sail down Hsing Wu's passage BEFORE the Go4's sensitive parts are collectively caught in a vice--and DuCairn offers terms. Charis simply cannot afford for terms to be offered--since they can't afford to accept them, short of entering the Temple in force.

jmseeley wrote:
What if Charis preemptively offers terms? IMO there are three provisions that could give Charis pretty much everything it wants:
1. Cessation of hostilities by all parties and a proclamation that the jihad is ended.
2. The jihad was driven by a corrupt Inquisition. The Inquisition is therefore dissolved and ALL members will perform appropriate penance and are forbidden to ever again perform Inquisitorial duties in any capacity.
3. While the Church may have fragmented, all faiths recognize the Temple as God's seat. Therefore pilgrims of all faiths will be welcome and free to worship as they see fit, excepting that they may not impose their faith on others.

Provision 1 ends the war. Lots of bitterness, but a lot less dying.
Provision 2: The Council of Vicars can basically say 'We were mislead by an Inquisition that had fallen under the sway of Shan-Wei.' It's face-saving BS of course, but!
- It gets the CoGA out of a war it can't win while providing a scapegoat that's actually guilty.
- It isolates the Inquisition from the rest of the Faithful.
- A reformed Inquisition may eventually arise, but it will never be able to crack the whip like the old one.
Provision 3: Basically this is like bringing just a few termites into the house. What harm could it do?

Timing would be critical, of course. They'd have to do it when the Temple forces are clearly losing anyway, but before Clyntahn is removed. Of course he'll go into one of his screaming rages (he should really think about decorating with replicas instead of original artwork), '...we'll surrender to those fornicating heretics over my dead body!!' etc. But as things degenerate and the Inquisition gets more vicious, more people will probably be OK with that.

By moving first, Charis could retain control of how the war ends. They can set terms that everyone can live with while the Inner Circle still gets what it needs.

jms

Why accepting defeat on the brink of victory?
Because for the Inner Circle this would be defeat.
The CoGA is not just a church.
Think of Harchong as Texas and Desnair as Florida. Make Siddarmark California. They are allowed to quibble among each other, but the CoGA is the Federal Government. Zion is Washington D.C. It is the supreme civil authority on Safehold. It can overrule every ruler. It appoints every successor. The schism between Charis and the CoGA started when Cayleb appointed himself as his fathers successor. He occupies the throne illegally according to Safehold CoGA law.

The terms you propose leave the secular might of the CoGA largely in place. It gives the GoGA time to learn from its mistakes and build an army and navy that can threaten Charis.

With 80% of Safehold under its control it will win the cold war if given enough time.

Charis has to conquer Zion at the least. Preferably the Temple Lands, the Border states, Dohlar and or Desnair. It is not needed to make those lands part of the EoC, but friendly, secular rulers are a must.

United in a Pax Charis and close economic ties.

Tanstaafl wrote:
Charis has to conquer Zion at the least. Preferably the Temple Lands, the Border states, Dohlar and or Desnair. It is not needed to make those lands part of the EoC, but friendly, secular rulers are a must.

United in a Pax Charis and close economic ties.

No, not really. All they really need to do is get loose inside the Temple, delving into it's bowels. for an indeterminate amount of time...

Once they deal with whatever is in the basement(and the bombardment platform), they can come out of the technological closet, and no one's going to stop them.

In one of the snippets, didn't Merlin say to the inquisitor he was about to kill that he would utterly destroy his church, that it was an abomination on the face of the planet? To me, that doesn't leave much room for 'let's forget about all the unpleasantness and have a cup of hot chocolate and see what we can cobble together'.

A few thoughts.

One, the Safehold Church will be destroyed when the truth comes out and the truth will come out. There may be a remainder left but it will be a weak version of what existed prior to OAR.

Two, Merlin is allowing his anger about the mockery of his faith which is the Safehold Church to come out when he's killing the inquisitor and was saying what would terrify the inquisitor the most.

Three, IMO Merlin would allow his friends to convince him to allow a remainder of the Safehold Church to survive if it was necessary for a real peace to exist.

Dutch46 wrote:In one of the snippets, didn't Merlin say to the inquisitor he was about to kill that he would utterly destroy his church, that it was an abomination on the face of the planet? To me, that doesn't leave much room for 'let's forget about all the unpleasantness and have a cup of hot chocolate and see what we can cobble together'.

The point I am trying to make, there is a difference between the CoGA as a religious institution, and the CoGA as the supreme civil authority.

The religious institution can survive as one among many.

The CoGA as the Safehold planetary government has to go, completely. Only unconditional surrender is acceptable.

Tanstaafl wrote:

jmseeley wrote:
What if Charis preemptively offers terms? IMO there are three provisions that could give Charis pretty much everything it wants:
1. Cessation of hostilities by all parties and a proclamation that the jihad is ended.
2. The jihad was driven by a corrupt Inquisition. The Inquisition is therefore dissolved and ALL members will perform appropriate penance and are forbidden to ever again perform Inquisitorial duties in any capacity.
3. While the Church may have fragmented, all faiths recognize the Temple as God's seat. Therefore pilgrims of all faiths will be welcome and free to worship as they see fit, excepting that they may not impose their faith on others.

Provision 1 ends the war. Lots of bitterness, but a lot less dying.
Provision 2: The Council of Vicars can basically say 'We were mislead by an Inquisition that had fallen under the sway of Shan-Wei.' It's face-saving BS of course, but!
- It gets the CoGA out of a war it can't win while providing a scapegoat that's actually guilty.
- It isolates the Inquisition from the rest of the Faithful.
- A reformed Inquisition may eventually arise, but it will never be able to crack the whip like the old one.
Provision 3: Basically this is like bringing just a few termites into the house. What harm could it do?

Timing would be critical, of course. They'd have to do it when the Temple forces are clearly losing anyway, but before Clyntahn is removed. Of course he'll go into one of his screaming rages (he should really think about decorating with replicas instead of original artwork), '...we'll surrender to those fornicating heretics over my dead body!!' etc. But as things degenerate and the Inquisition gets more vicious, more people will probably be OK with that.

By moving first, Charis could retain control of how the war ends. They can set terms that everyone can live with while the Inner Circle still gets what it needs.

jms

Why accepting defeat on the brink of victory?
Because for the Inner Circle this would be defeat.
The CoGA is not just a church.
Think of Harchong as Texas and Desnair as Florida. Make Siddarmark California. They are allowed to quibble among each other, but the CoGA is the Federal Government. Zion is Washington D.C. It is the supreme civil authority on Safehold. It can overrule every ruler. It appoints every successor. The schism between Charis and the CoGA started when Cayleb appointed himself as his fathers successor. He occupies the throne illegally according to Safehold CoGA law.

The terms you propose leave the secular might of the CoGA largely in place. It gives the GoGA time to learn from its mistakes and build an army and navy that can threaten Charis.

With 80% of Safehold under its control it will win the cold war if given enough time.

Charis has to conquer Zion at the least. Preferably the Temple Lands, the Border states, Dohlar and or Desnair. It is not needed to make those lands part of the EoC, but friendly, secular rulers are a must.

United in a Pax Charis and close economic ties.

As I see it there are 3 possible ways the war will end:
1. On the brink of defeat, Duchairn eliminates Clyntahn and offers terms. I doubt very much he'd include heretics' access to the Temple as part of those terms. The allies would accept because only the Inner Circle knows that access to the Temple is a primary goal of the war.
2. Charis offers terms, the Church refuses, and the war continues to its conclusion. Charis gets the Temple, but at the highest possible cost.
3. Charis offers terms, the Church accepts, Charis gets access to the Temple at a lower cost. The Church still exists, but it's fatally weakened.

The main purpose of offering terms is to preempt the Church from offering terms that Charis would feel compelled to agree to. Only the Inner Circle knows that they need physical access to the Temple. If Duchairn eliminates Clyntahn and offers to end the jihad, most people will see that as victory for Charis. There would be no way they could justify continuing the war with all the attendant bloodshed. Hence the terms.

I don't see a peace that leaves the Church nominally intact as particularly bad for Charis. The CoGAs power and influence is being shattered by the war. Merlin has already observed several times that innovation trends have established themselves and will progressively undermine the Church. The post-war Church will be too weak to reverse that. Siddarmark and Dohlar are already scrambling to emulate Charis. I'll bet money that there will shortly be a 'Church of Siddarmark', with the Temple loyalists reduced to a protected minority, like it is in Charis, at best. Any Inquisitors there will look a lot more like Father Paityr than Zhaspahr Clyntahn.

In my suggested terms I included the elimination of the Inquisition specifically to eliminate the secular power of the Church. In my timeline, by the time Charis offers terms the Church's armies would be broken and the Inquisition would be the only remaining tool for exerting power, hence provision 2. The only places where the Church is likely to retain substantial influence are the more conservative countries, mainly the Empires of Desnair and Harchong. If the Church tries to rebuild it's power it will have to innovate and that will undermine its own goals. Charis still wins.

Offering terms from a position of strength is how Charis has operated. The EoC has grown by leveraging force more than outright conquest. Chisholm, Emerald, Zebediah, Tarot, even Corisande, were all brought into the Empire through use of appropriate force, not by pounding them into the dirt. Charis has been able to achieve its goals largely by using force as a tool of diplomacy whenever possible, at a far lower cost in blood and treasure. Just as their Navy and Army have benefited from technical innovation, so has Charis benefitted from its diplomatic innovation.

Remember, I'm not suggesting Charis offer terms anytime soon. The Church's power has to be broken for all to see. Only when the Church's total defeat is seen to be inevitable should terms offered. This approach has consistently worked for Charis, and it's a big part of why they're seen as the 'Good Guys'.

jms

jmseeley wrote:.
<SNIP......>
In my suggested terms I included the elimination of the Inquisition specifically to eliminate the secular power of the Church. In my timeline, by the time Charis offers terms the Church's armies would be broken and the Inquisition would be the only remaining tool for exerting power, hence provision 2. The only places where the Church is likely to retain substantial influence are the more conservative countries, mainly the Empires of Desnair and Harchong. If the Church tries to rebuild it's power it will have to innovate and that will undermine its own goals. Charis still wins.

<SNIP......>
jms

The power of the Church is not through the inquisition.

The highest civil authority in the Harchong Empire is not the Emperor. It is the Archbishop of Harchong. If there is a difference of opinion the Archbishop can order the emperors bodyguards to arrest the emperor. And they probably will, because they are law abiding citizens. And because they are good sons of mother church.

And the LAW says they have to follow that order from the Archbishop.

The same is true in every other state on Safehold except EoC and Siddarmark.

To end that situation is what the current war is all about.

With or without the inquisition, the 80% of Safehold under control of the church will do everything needed to become as strong as the heretics (Siddarmark and EoC) and beat them. And without the inquisition with more gusto!

If it takes to ignore or nullify the proscriptions, they will do that. But they keep on fighting. If there is a treaty, it only gives them more time to build a new, bigger army before they start fighting again.

Charis has to kill the CoGA (Conquer Zion and the Temple) or replace the government and political structure of Dholar, Desnair, Harchong and the Temple Lands.

Compare it to the USA. You either have to get Washington D.C., or you have to get California, Texas, Florida and New York.

And think of Charis as Hawaii and Siddarmark as New England.

The M96 should be in service by late Spring 897 and by mid summer the rounds will be using gun cotton. That's a 10 round magazine fed bolt action rifle going up against a single shot Ferguson Rifle that requires percussion caps. The AoG will only have their best rifle in limited availability. The odds are getting steeper fast for the jihad.

The Siddermark campaign is wrapping up. Desnair and Dohlar have lost Southern Siddermark. Kaitswyrth is trying to keep his position in Aivynstyn. Wyshym is about to get corn-cobbed up North. Once Green Valley punches through the Northland Gap, Wyrshym's supply lines are at great risk. If Green Valley can beat Wyrshym to Cat-lizard Lake and Eastshare can cut the canals out of Dairnyth, Kaitswyrth is screwed regardless of what he wants to do.

Now, the only thing that might keep the AoG in the game is the Harchong troopers. They might actually be able to mount a defense along the Holy Langhorne Canal.

I am looking forward to the twists Gahrvai and Windshare will add using the new weapons. I have hopes of seeing post ACW American light cavalry armed with cartridge pistols and bolt action rifles. They could ravage Dohlar and the Border Kingdoms along the coast of the Gulf of Dohlar using the ICN to provide logistics support.

Also, it would be wonderful to have the ICN taking Trove Island and Dragon Island as coaling bases. The possibilities are ripe with action in the Dohlaran rear areas. Rahnynld will be sooooo hosed come Spring and Summer!

Are we ready for King Rainos Ahlverez of Dohlar and his prime minister Lywys Gardynyr, Earl of Thirsk.