Spoilers. Was Aivah's visit a ploy?

At the end of the last book and the beginning of this one Aivah Pahrsahn visits Merlin to ask the favor of a quick trip to and back from Zion. I believe the trip was to facilitate the explosion at Second Pasquale's. My problem is that I can't see how much it accomplished. The thought occurs to me that she could have sent generalised instructions to her organisation in Zion to look out for the inevitable time that Clyntahn decides to destroy Maigwair, and to kill the conspirators. That would have the advantage of not micro-managing a clandestine organisation from a distance. Of course, she also supplied the Lewisite, but there's no indication she required the Lewisite. Or, if she did, that she couldn't have merely shipped it there.

I think Aivah's purpose for visiting Merlin was to ally herself with him, and the trip to Zion was merely an excuse to accomplish that.

Is there something I'm missing? Maybe her trip was unassociated with Second Pasquale's? Maybe her quick trip hasn't occurred yet? Maybe the change from single, secret murders to explosions required her presence? What do you think?

~Tonto

no i agree. I think she might have had business in Zion but could have dealt with it another way. what she really wanted was to tell him about St Khody his unreadable diary and see what happened then

She's a strategic thinker. She figured out that an alliance with Merlin was going to be worthwhile.

Tonto Silerheels wrote:At the end of the last book and the beginning of this one Aivah Pahrsahn visits Merlin to ask the favor of a quick trip to and back from Zion. I believe the trip was to facilitate the explosion at Second Pasquale's. My problem is that I can't see how much it accomplished. The thought occurs to me that she could have sent generalised instructions to her organisation in Zion to look out for the inevitable time that Clyntahn decides to destroy Maigwair, and to kill the conspirators. That would have the advantage of not micro-managing a clandestine organisation from a distance. Of course, she also supplied the Lewisite, but there's no indication she required the Lewisite. Or, if she did, that she couldn't have merely shipped it there.

I think Aivah's purpose for visiting Merlin was to ally herself with him, and the trip to Zion was merely an excuse to accomplish that.

Is there something I'm missing? Maybe her trip was unassociated with Second Pasquale's? Maybe her quick trip hasn't occurred yet? Maybe the change from single, secret murders to explosions required her presence? What do you think?

~Tonto

The reason that I think that the wish of Aivah to visit Zion had nothing directly to do with the explosion at Second Pasquale was that there was already a very deep plant high up in the Inquisition who was able to get news to Helm Cleaver of Rayno and Clyntahn's plan to sabotage Maigwair.

It seems to me that Seijin Zhozhua Murphai making contact with Mahkbyth was the object of Aivah's request for a ride. Merlin apparently went and handled that task himself.

Once Mahkbyth was thus activated, Helm Cleaver was able to act directly, first with the stash of explosives that was set specifically to spook Rayno and then to exploit rapidly an opportunity that arose without much warning, namely the meeting at Second Pasquale.

In the second instance, the opportunity for Mahkbyth to get his revenge on the vicar who secured the cover-up of the crime that had destroyed his family was perhaps "heaven-sent".

Would it have been bad to let that meeting at Second Pasqual's take place? As I understood it, it was going to be a meeting to see who would replace Maigwier(sp)as over all general of the churches forces with someone who would bend to the whim of the Inquisitor.

This might have led to a more offensive and cruel church strategy. But the reason the Go4 forces are hanging on is because if what Maigwier has been able to do to delay the push of untrained men to the front, and help push for new weapons to counter what the EoC has.

So I guess was it a strategic mistake to kill all of the generals when one was to be picked for the grand inquisitors puppet? Or was it a good idea as it deprived the church from all those generals who helped lead?

Imagine, or rather don't imagine, the atrocities a general chosen by the Grand Fornicator would commit. Innocent lives were saved by the millions when that bomb went off.

In a real sense, maybe not. The result was to weaken Clyntahn and strengthen Magwair, and if your object is to bleed all of Haven white, Clyntahn is your man. If you're not terribly keen on making the place look like the northern Germanies in 1645, OTOH, you'd probably like to see Clyntahn toppled in favour of a regime that can admit the obvious. AKA Defeat.

In any case, they weren't generals. More like a mix of the House Armed Services Committee and assistant secretaries of Defense, to use American analogies.

unlucky caz wrote:Would it have been bad to let that meeting at Second Pasqual's take place? As I understood it, it was going to be a meeting to see who would replace Maigwier(sp)as over all general of the churches forces with someone who would bend to the whim of the Inquisitor.

This might have led to a more offensive and cruel church strategy. But the reason the Go4 forces are hanging on is because if what Maigwier has been able to do to delay the push of untrained men to the front, and help push for new weapons to counter what the EoC has.

So I guess was it a strategic mistake to kill all of the generals when one was to be picked for the grand inquisitors puppet? Or was it a good idea as it deprived the church from all those generals who helped lead?

I dont think Aivah planned that strike to help Charis, I think she did it to weaken the grip of the inquisition. Aivah is the closest thing the allies have to an expert on temple politics, so believe that will be the primary target of her insurgency. It does kind of fit with her original reformist ideology a little better, prior to joining the inner circle.

As for the benefits of Clyntahn being in power I believe they still outweigh the negatives at this point. Clyntahn will give stupid orders to the HoGaA that should make it easier to defeat NTM he is a potent symbol of CoGA corruption that is hard to defend.

If you look at the chronology, it instantly becomes apparent that Aivah’s visit to Merlin has nothing to with Second Pasquale’s. Aivah has her visit with Merlin in March of 897. Clinton doesn’t decide to have the meeting at Second Pasquale’s until June 897. That is three months later.

Louis R wrote:In a real sense, maybe not. The result was to weaken Clyntahn and strengthen Magwair, and if your object is to bleed all of Haven white, Clyntahn is your man. If you're not terribly keen on making the place look like the northern Germanies in 1645, OTOH, you'd probably like to see Clyntahn toppled in favour of a regime that can admit the obvious. AKA Defeat.

In any case, they weren't generals. More like a mix of the House Armed Services Committee and assistant secretaries of Defense, to use American analogies.

Clyntahn is probably the only person eager to bleed Haven white - there may be a heretic in there somewhere, after all, at least by the time you're done... - so it's definitely a win on that score.

Clyntahn running the jihad will mean no end while the Inquisition can push anyone else in the way of Allied weapons and the assurance of reckless military decisions. It does mean Haven bled white and a legacy of bitterness among the survivors that will make the continent a foul place to live for generations. That's not really a good background for the Big Reveal, as much as Clyntahn does such an awesome job of discrediting the CoGA.

Realists running the jihad offer a prospect of the jihad ending - they "only" need the freedom from the Inquisition to sue for peace, the willingness to abandon the ideal of the universal Mother Church, and (this is the easy part) the recognition that they cannot win. They'll run the war more competently, but more competently means fewer people getting killed and the same monetary bankruptcy for the Church and quite enough moral bankruptcy covered already.

And really - more surviving angry Harchongese soldiers is going to be good for Harchong and Safehold, in a rough but effective way.