One of the clear results of HFQ is that the political and military landscapes have shifted significantly. The MHoGatA appear to be competently led, reasonably equipped and following a rational strategy. That suggests that as long as the jihad continues to receive funding, the MH can defend the most direct route to Zion effectively.
Therein lies the question. Does the jihad have sufficient funding to last beyond 898? The need for funding seems inexhaustible.
1) The MH and new formations of the AoG need to be equipped with artillery, infantry rifles, rockets, grenades and proper uniforms for winter and summer.
2) HMS Dreadnought will provide a roadmap to create much more seaworthy armored ships. Her guns will indicate better ways to make iron/steel guns. The remaining brown coco powder will suggest alternatives to the jihadi black powder. Absent reverse engineering all those elements, Dreadnought and the screw galleys won't be able to face the other Thunderers coming to the Gulf of Dohlar.
3) Adm Sarmount and Lt. Alpin-Ahrmahk, His Grace the Duke of Darcos will cut down on supplies moving from South Harchong to Gorath. I further suspect that Hektor and Nimue will be instrumental in securing the Western locks of the Salthar Canal in the next book. Those late leaving troops out of Cherayth last year will have arrived in the Gulf of Jahras already and are preparing to attack the canal.
4) The CoGA is indeed running out of money. They can confiscate more, but at what price? The more drastic the measure they employ, the more they will telegraph that they are losing. The greater the economic difficulty they face in contrast to Charis' prosperity, the more questions the loyalist laity will ask about God's lack of support of His Church. No matter what they do to continue the jihad, they have to build confidence or morale will plummet.
All these factors suggest the story will go in one of two directions. Either Clyntahn takes control of the jihad directly and offs Magwair or Magrwair and Duchairn succeed in offing Clyntahn. In another post I suggested Rayno was part of Nynian's action group. If I am right, Duchairn might well succeed in his efforts to kill Clyntahn. Otherwise, not likely at all.
I sort of wish that Clyntahn takes control directly and really mucks up the Loyalist nations' economies. Think about the St. Just period of the people's Republic of Haven and switch Clyntahn for St. Just. The principle difference is that St. Just wanted to help Rob s pierre reform Haven's economy and Clyntahn will move to centralize the planning and controls of the loyalits' economies.
Clyntahn's leading the jihad directly will much more quickly lead to widespread disillusionment of the loyalist laity. If Duchairn offs Clyntahn, things get a bit more dicey. The jihadi forces might well focus on defending against the allies moving west to Zion and offer a truce. The relative weapons parity and current numerical disparity may well suggest the Allies accept a truce to see if negotiations will leads somewhere. The Inner Circle might not agree, but Stonahr and the SSK (not in the Inner Circle) may well wish to see the CoGA reform significantly not see it destroyed.
If Clyntahn takes over directly, I see the Sleepers waking early somehow. If Duchairn offs Clyntahn, we get a hiatus until the scheduled awakening. Not sure which I want more? I am leaning towards a hiatus where Alahna is a junior lieutenant in the ICA or ICN, her younger brother just graduated the naval academy. He is joining Hektor's new command the 25,000 ton battleship Admiral Lock Island. This will be the first pure steel constructed ICN battlewagon armed with 5 double turret 14' BL rifles, 16 4' BL rifles and 4 21' torpedo tubes. For a better idea take a look at the HMS Audacious.
