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Military Speculations

This fascinating series is a combination of historical seafaring, swashbuckling adventure, and high technological science-fiction. Join us in a discussion!
Military Speculations
Post by EdThomas   » Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:12 am

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BGV's about to publish the first Safeholdian manual on winter operations. Where might he end up? Will he run into some of the new Harchong army?

Will Symkins go north to eliminate Kaitswyrth? Will he try to pass mounted infantry by K to block the canal retreat route? If so, hopefully things will work out differently than our last blocking efforts.

Will Eastshare drive through to Dairnyth? Where will he run into the new model Harchongese Army?

Will Hanth be pulled back after turning things over to EastShare and then be used to bring Silkiah into the fold?

And there's our boy Alverez? How will he manage to feed his already lean troops? Will he be able to break through and possibly hurt Hanth's spread out forces? How will RFC get him back and linked up (fed?)with Dohlaran forces?

Will the good guys be able to avoid having to attack fortified positions packed with the new St Khylman's (sp?)?

Will Thirsk surrender the fleet when he meets the new players? Hope we've got the plan ready to pull his family out by then.

What deviltry will Captain (Commodore?) Bahrnes be put up to?

Sorry guys but this Geography major's steam-engined-out. :)
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Re: Military Speculations- LaMA Spoilers
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Jun 18, 2014 1:08 pm

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Spoilers!
Comments in Blue

EdThomas wrote:BGV's about to publish the first Safeholdian manual on winter operations. Where might he end up? Will he run into some of the new Harchong army?

BGV will end up at Mahrtynberg and prepare to defend against the GHoGatA.

Will Symkins go north to eliminate Kaitswyrth? Will he try to pass mounted infantry by K to block the canal retreat route? If so, hopefully things will work out differently than our last blocking efforts.

Symkyns might well pull a BGV winter drive to secure the locks behind Kaitswyrth. Symkyns' main army will take out take out Kaitswyrth in Aivynstahn. Either that or he'll leave enough of a blocking force at Aivynstahn to keep Kaitswyrth bottled up and then send the remainder of his army north to St. Vyrdyn.

Will Eastshare drive through to Dairnyth? Where will he run into the new model Harchongese Army?

Eastshare will focus on the Sheryl-Seridahn Canal and threaten the Duchy of Thorast. High Mount will hean to Dairnyth and cut off that canal. The GHoGatA will likely head north along the Langehorn to block BGV from marching to Zion.

Will Hanth be pulled back after turning things over to EastShare and then be used to bring Silkiah into the fold?

Hanth will stay at Thesmar protecting against the IDA adventurism.

And there's our boy Alverez? How will he manage to feed his already lean troops? Will he be able to break through and possibly hurt Hanth's spread out forces? How will RFC get him back and linked up (fed?)with Dohlaran forces?

Ahlverez will likely avoid capture and return to Dohlar.

Will the good guys be able to avoid having to attack fortified positions packed with the new St Khylman's (sp?)?

Most of the fortifications in the jihadists' territories aren't well designed to resist heavy shells. Enough shelling will soften them up. Heck, as Byrk Raimahn showed, sappers will work to take down the walls.

Will Thirsk surrender the fleet when he meets the new players? Hope we've got the plan ready to pull his family out by then.

He'll only surrender if his family are safe.

What deviltry will Captain (Commodore?) Bahrnes be put up to?

Taking the Salthar-Silk Town Canal with the help of seijins, marines and the last contingent of ICA leaving Chisholm.

Sorry guys but this Geography major's steam-engined-out. :)
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by USMA74   » Wed Jun 18, 2014 1:53 pm

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I think all of the above speculations are reasonable extrapolations of the military situation as it exists at the end of LAMA. I was introduced to RFC when I read Short Victorious War many years ago. In all that time I have learned, as a result of my lousy percentage for accurately predicting what is going to happened, that RFC will introduce the demon Murphy :twisted: to keep things interesting for his devoted readers in HFQ.

As a petulant child of 62 I merely want regular snippets of HFQ to start yesterday if I can’t have the book tomorrow.
:)
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by SYED   » Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:42 pm

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We guess the harchong army will be sent to those lakes to stop the republic from marching into the border states. The issue is can that army be supplied.
Also, the army could be used to reinforce the dohlar positions, that port city linked by canal to thesmar. And the church position nearest to them. Also, that army might be used to enforce the church will in dohlar, so thirsk can not surrender and the king cant act in a manor that preserves his kingdom or people. The thing is the inquisition does not care if they all die so long as they die harming charis.
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by Thucydides   » Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:41 pm

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Advancing in winter in mountainous terrain against a million man army...

Anyone thinking "Chosin Reservoir" or "Changjin Lake Campaign"?
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Re: Military Speculations- LaMA Spoilers
Post by EdThomas   » Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:06 am

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Please consider this a respectful request for some clarification on the term "Spoiler". If information is known to be in the book, the "Spoiler" warning must be present in such a manner as to prevent the reader from accidentally learning what happens in the book. A SWAG, no matter how august the SWAGger, is not a spoiler. So, are the words in blue, spoilers, or swags? :?

PeterZ wrote:Spoilers!
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by Tonto Silerheels   » Thu Jun 19, 2014 8:42 am

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EdThomas wrote: If information is known to be in the book, the "Spoiler" warning must be present in such a manner as to prevent the reader from accidentally learning what happens in the book.

That's my understanding as well. I did want to add that spoiler warnings have been prescribed for the purposes of this forum to extend one month past the date of publication. With the exception of Hell's Foundations Quiver all of the Safehold books have passed this date, so there should be no spoiler warnings from anyone except runsforcelery and anyone else who may have gotten an advanced glimpse of the text (I'm looking at you, Drak). However, I'm also aware of some requests to extend the spoiler warnings for Like A Mighty Army due to the delayed release dates in some countries.

~Tonto
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by EdThomas   » Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:28 pm

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The St Khylman's rifle may not turn out to be as bad as some of us thought.

Defensively it improves the bad guys situation tremendously.

Offensively, I'm not so sure. Open order formations and movements will make it more effective on the attack. I'd be surprised if the Harchongese will use anything but massed formations. The impact of the veteran ncos on them will not be great enough to allow them to operate platoons and squads independently. It's gonna take a while to develop the ncos to that level, if it's even possible with their culture.

Are the bad guys really trained to aim a rifle? My question here is does the shooter close his eyes before firing a black powwder weapon?
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by larrywiding   » Thu Jun 19, 2014 3:11 pm

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Personally, I am wondering how long it will be before the first machine guns show up, which would go a long way towards balancing the numbers from Harchong. And, while they have better training, how willing will they be to hold formation against heavy fire? Somehow, I don't see their moral being equal to the AoG's.

Of course, that could cause problems as well, 10s of thousands of PoWs needing to be fed and housed?

Perhaps artillery rockets?
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by dan92677   » Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:23 pm

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[quote="larrywiding"]Personally, snip

Of course, that could cause problems as well, 10s of thousands of PoWs needing to be fed and housed? snip

Wouldn't that be multiple 100,000's ???
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