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Silverlode and serfs

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Silverlode and serfs
Post by lyonheart   » Sun Apr 06, 2014 1:25 am

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Howdy everybody!

what's your reaction to Cayleb declaring at whatever peace conference:

"Charis and I are ready now to buy any and all serfs!"

There's another thread that has what the Silverlode gold etc might be used for, but most of the suggestions including mine were thinking too small.

We know the smallest of the 4 lodes is worth 10 trillion Charisian marks, probably more money than all of Safehold is currently worth, if the average wage is around a local mark per day, perhaps by an order of magnitude or so.

Cayleb can spend it pretty much how he wants, which is a sign of a true emperor, while eliminating the war taxes and most other taxes.

I can see Sharleyan using her nobility's interest in 'investing' or doing 'surveys for a gold mine' on Silverlode to negotiate better terms on industrial, infrastructure, and factory contracts etc in Chisholm as well as increasing the size of the Royal Survey Corps and Institute etc.

I can see the deterrent value of rumors in the peace to come that Cayleb spends a million marks a day building and training his army and navy in peacetime will have.

Of course Sharleyan will see to it some keep their combat experience while developing their latest weapons and tactics as they're crushing, conquering, and civilizing Trellheim. :D

Paying for the rebuilding of Siddarmark, Charisian R&D, becoming the world's greatest banker (with the Church of Charis becoming number 2 thanks to its 20% etc), developing industry throughout the empire while cushioning its effects, buying goodwill abroad, NTM major education have all been suggested; and in the main aren't that bad a list of suggestions, but they still pale besides such a vast quantity of wealth, and while subsidizing the race to space and rediscovering federation technology etc when the time comes might head the list, there are more important things than all of the these; the simple freedom of man.

The CoGA population on the two continents is over 800 million but how many are serfs?

At least 500 million are serfs, and how much are they worth?

Harchong adult serfs are at most probably sold for a couple hundred marks, because there are so many, and are treated like dirt because they are so cheap, so if half are children or too old all of them should be less than that for a theoretical 10 billion Charisian marks or just 1% of the first lode, but it won't come close to that.

However where most of the freed serfs may go is another place Cayleb can safely spend lots of money.

Though there is plenty of land now available in the republic and elsewhere on the continents, having physical separation will be critical in establishing new free communities and nations, and the ICN can provide that physical isolation and protection for the Barren Lands which evidently aren't so barren anymore, besides Greentree and Westbreak Islands, though only Greentree and the Barren Lands each have a named town at the moment.

I'm sure the Holy Writ has plenty of scriptures exclaiming how creating lots of concentrated ground is God's blessed work, so Cayleb and Charis ought to theoretically get lots of credit for that though the TL's won't see it that way, but it will be work the serfs know how to do but now they'll be paid and it'll be their land.

Creating a labor shortage (thereby improving the conditions of those serfs remaining) by buying as many serfs as possible after the war will be hard to stop given a peace treaty requiring recognition and trade with Charis, because Charis will insist, since those nobles and/or bureaucrats throughout the continents who haven't made a fortune yet will want theirs, so it will be politically hard to stop.

This will be a long term process, but I should review my expectation that Haven's political map will be drastically redrawn as the allies advance.

All the 'Border States' have a combined population of 102 million, Dohlar has 97 million, Silkiah 46 million, and the Temple Lands' 89 million; for 334 million of which perhaps 75% or 250 million are serfs or near it regardless of what the Temple Lands' euphemism is.

Without the CoGA to prop them up, the Border States will collapse, prodded by the levelers who saw how they were played by the SoS in Siddarmark, NTM having been disarmed by Magwair they won't be able to resist any suggested changes by the allies, even if they don't physically occupy said border state on their way to Zion (or very much).

While I expect the republic to occupy or include the eastern half of the temple lands in its new sphere of influence that includes the former Border States, Dohlar and Silkiah under more friendlier management if not outright republics, many of the 'serfs' in the western half ought to have at least some opportunities during the fighting and negotiation periods to head east while their owners are preoccupied with avoiding various armies etc.

That means 30-40% of the serfs may be freed as a result of the war, while opening the door to free the rest.

While we don't know the population of southern Harchong, Howard's serf population could be between 200-240 million, most of whom will be available for purchase until they become more rare, given Desnar, Sodar and Delferahk have little else that Charis wants.

Charis might make free trade dependent on freeing serfs, but buying outright will have its appeal regardless of various official policies, and arranging non official purchasing missions [smuggling] will further subvert the official government's remaining power.

Another great advantage of this process is that most of the expected inflation will be exported to the slave nations, further weakening them not Charis or its allies.

Cayleb and Sharleyan are both under 30 and their nanites' ought to let them live till they're in their '80's, so they potentially have 50-60 years to effectively eradicate slavery or serfdom during their lifetimes, a notable accomplishment for anyone, even if their children are doing most of the legwork the last 20-30 years.

Your thoughts on how this concept can be improved will be appreciated, so please feel free to vent any and all ideas. 8-)

L

Best to all,
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by alj_sf   » Sun Apr 06, 2014 3:28 am

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lyonheart wrote:Howdy everybody!

what's your reaction to Cayleb declaring at whatever peace conference:

"Charis and I are ready now to buy any and all serfs!"

There's another thread that has what the Silverlode gold etc might be used for, but most of the suggestions including mine were thinking too small.
...


I may be wrong, but that would be imo putting hard currency in exactly the worse hands possible.

To have any chance for a stable peace, you need the invaded aristocraties to be made poorer, not fabulously richer. One thing earth history teached us is that nobles will plot if they can or are unhappy with the head of state, and rich nobles can funnel a lot of money in nefarious purposes.

Simply freing the serfs, while confirming the proprietary rights on lands to the nobles would be already more generous than needed and wouldn't mess too much with existing society. Then Cayleb paying of his own coffers for consecrating (terraforming) land on Silverlode and for the relocation as well as the installation of the volunteers taken among the ex-serfs would be the smart move as the money goes to people who will be glad of it or to Charis economy as a whole. Most nobles would be mad as hell, as even the increased wealth due to rents would not compensate the drain occuring. But the good ones among them would probably keep their workforce as tenants.

We know that there is vast expenses of potentially good lands still unconsecrated in Siddamark, so paying for that and implantation there would be good too.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by PeterZ   » Sun Apr 06, 2014 8:30 am

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Talk about a poisoned pill, Lyonheart! I love the idea!

By buying serfs and slaves in massive job lots, Charis sets a high monetary value on a serf/slave. By freeing them after purchase, Cayleb and Sharley establishes an even higher moral value on their new subjects. That essential truth will sink home deeply to their newest subjects. How much more proof that your new Emperor and Empress values you highly does a new subject need to show how worthy of loyalty the they are?

Yes, Cayleb & Sharley (C&S) will be exporting inflation. They will also be destroying production capacity of the most stupid aristocrats out there. By limiting production in those lands, the aristos will be more reliant on consumption of Charisian imports. Only a matter of time before the money travels back to Charis. By moving assets where they are valued Safeholdian productiveness will increase much more quickly.

Now to really poison the greedy idiots. Offer a higher amount for reproductive females in particular but women in general. With luck the mix of purchased serfs will be at least 2x young women for every male. I suspect the men will be past their prime. Good! Leave behind a large percentage of young men with no prospect for a mate. Talk about concentrated fuel for a revolution! Charis will have taken away most of the mainland's stabilizing factors. The wisdom of age and women.

By the time mainland society becomes restless enough, the aristos will be offering young males for just the cost of transport. C&S will have reshaped all of Safehold within 2 decades. 5 years to begin getting the gold and 10-15 to buy most of the women and post prime but still fertile men.

I sure hope you guessed RFC's strategy here Lyonheart.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by MWadwell   » Sun Apr 06, 2014 6:14 pm

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PeterZ wrote:Talk about a poisoned pill, Lyonheart! I love the idea!

By buying serfs and slaves in massive job lots, Charis sets a high monetary value on a serf/slave. By freeing them after purchase, Cayleb and Sharley establishes an even higher moral value on their new subjects. That essential truth will sink home deeply to their newest subjects. How much more proof that your new Emperor and Empress values you highly does a new subject need to show how worthy of loyalty the they are?

Yes, Cayleb & Sharley (C&S) will be exporting inflation. They will also be destroying production capacity of the most stupid aristocrats out there. By limiting production in those lands, the aristos will be more reliant on consumption of Charisian imports. Only a matter of time before the money travels back to Charis. By moving assets where they are valued Safeholdian productiveness will increase much more quickly.

Now to really poison the greedy idiots. Offer a higher amount for reproductive females in particular but women in general. With luck the mix of purchased serfs will be at least 2x young women for every male. I suspect the men will be past their prime. Good! Leave behind a large percentage of young men with no prospect for a mate. Talk about concentrated fuel for a revolution! Charis will have taken away most of the mainland's stabilizing factors. The wisdom of age and women.

By the time mainland society becomes restless enough, the aristos will be offering young males for just the cost of transport. C&S will have reshaped all of Safehold within 2 decades. 5 years to begin getting the gold and 10-15 to buy most of the women and post prime but still fertile men.

I sure hope you guessed RFC's strategy here Lyonheart.


I don't think that it would work, for a variety of reasons- however the main reason is that the Empire of Charis is only going to "import" a fraction of a percentage of it's population per year, to allow time for them to assimilate into the Charisian culture (rather then forming their own enclaves). And so if the limit is ~0.5% of the islands population a year, this is approximatetly half a million serfs per year.

The Harchong empire (of 500 million) is going to be able to replace this through normal reproduction (I mean, there's going to be approximately 20 million births a year) without any short term shortages. So the idea of any significant "destroying production capacity" isn't going to happen.


The next not so insignificant issue is transportation. At it's peak when Australia was subsidising immigration (see the ten pound pom - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ten_Pound_Poms), Australia was only able ship about 100 000 people per year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-war_immigration_to_Australia).

The reason I'm mentioning Australia, as Australia had an active immigration program (with Britain also promoting the immigration), had dedicated ships plying the route, and had a route approximately the same distance as from Harchong to Charis as from England to Australia.


So, I would be surprised if Charis would be able destroy Harchong through promoting immigration.....
.

Later,
Matt
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by MWadwell   » Sun Apr 06, 2014 6:52 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Howdy everybody!

what's your reaction to Cayleb declaring at whatever peace conference:

"Charis and I are ready now to buy any and all serfs!"


I don't think that this is a good idea - as it is reinforcing the idea that serfs are property.

However, what about this as an alternative - The Underground Railway.

That way you are getting serfs who want to be free (and so have the right mindset).

For the same price as buying serfs, you'd be able to setup the network in Harchong, and in addition to gainging new citizens, you'd also have the advantage of causing civil unrest in Harchong (resulting in even lower production efficiency).
.

Later,
Matt
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by phillies   » Sun Apr 06, 2014 9:21 pm

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Would this scheme destroy the Harchongese nobility? Look at what happened to the samurai after the Meiji restoration, when the samurai were given 'samurai bonds' as a replacement for other matters. Some invested wisely. Note "Satsuma". Some readers will find Nikolai Gogol "Dead Souls" to be of interest. The Whig history version of the fate of the Spanish nobility, namely the vast cash stream from the New World was not invested in productive assets, also comes to mind.

Mindful that the assets are something dismaying like ten trillion marks, or around 10,000 marks per head, some caution is needed. Let us guess that a Mark is around a dollar, and Harchong is not having the slave price bubble that the South did in the 50's. In that case, a serf might be transferred for around 100 marks. If Harchong has lost "voluntarily" need not enter. All these nobles and bureaucrats have large amounts of cash, and have to *hire* their former serfs. (Perhaps they should be paid *more*.) And then -- the Freedman's Bureau, but well and honestly run, educates the free men, and perhaps pays them to go to school and to learn trades.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by n7axw   » Sun Apr 06, 2014 10:38 pm

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MWadwell wrote:
PeterZ wrote:Talk about a poisoned pill, Lyonheart! I love the idea!

By buying serfs and slaves in massive job lots, Charis sets a high monetary value on a serf/slave. By freeing them after purchase, Cayleb and Sharley establishes an even higher moral value on their new subjects. That essential truth will sink home deeply to their newest subjects. How much more proof that your new Emperor and Empress values you highly does a new subject need to show how worthy of loyalty the they are?

Yes, Cayleb & Sharley (C&S) will be exporting inflation. They will also be destroying production capacity of the most stupid aristocrats out there. By limiting production in those lands, the aristos will be more reliant on consumption of Charisian imports. Only a matter of time before the money travels back to Charis. By moving assets where they are valued Safeholdian productiveness will increase much more quickly.

Now to really poison the greedy idiots. Offer a higher amount for reproductive females in particular but women in general. With luck the mix of purchased serfs will be at least 2x young women for every male. I suspect the men will be past their prime. Good! Leave behind a large percentage of young men with no prospect for a mate. Talk about concentrated fuel for a revolution! Charis will have taken away most of the mainland's stabilizing factors. The wisdom of age and women.

By the time mainland society becomes restless enough, the aristos will be offering young males for just the cost of transport. C&S will have reshaped all of Safehold within 2 decades. 5 years to begin getting the gold and 10-15 to buy most of the women and post prime but still fertile men.

I sure hope you guessed RFC's strategy here Lyonheart.


I don't think that it would work, for a variety of reasons- however the main reason is that the Empire of Charis is only going to "import" a fraction of a percentage of it's population per year, to allow time for them to assimilate into the Charisian culture (rather then forming their own enclaves). And so if the limit is ~0.5% of the islands population a year, this is approximatetly half a million serfs per year.

The Harchong empire (of 500 million) is going to be able to replace this through normal reproduction (I mean, there's going to be approximately 20 million births a year) without any short term shortages. So the idea of any significant "destroying production capacity" isn't going to happen.


The next not so insignificant issue is transportation. At it's peak when Australia was subsidising immigration (see the ten pound pom - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ten_Pound_Poms), Australia was only able ship about 100 000 people per year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-war_immigration_to_Australia).

The reason I'm mentioning Australia, as Australia had an active immigration program (with Britain also promoting the immigration), had dedicated ships plying the route, and had a route approximately the same distance as from Harchong to Charis as from England to Australia.


So, I would be surprised if Charis would be able destroy Harchong through promoting immigration.....


For what it is worth, RFC has the population of the Harchong Empire ---this would include both north and south---listed at 194,000,000. The population of Safehold at this time is at roughly a billion. Some of the figures thrown around seem a bit inflated.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by DennisLee   » Sun Apr 06, 2014 10:41 pm

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Serfs are not "owned", you cannot buy and sell them. I found this lecture that explains the difference. What Charis could do is offer the Harchong (and other) serfs better land and lordship in the Charis empire, or better yet, freedom from their ties to the land and a paying position in the new industries that are cropping up (like in the steelworks or navy shipbuilding).
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by phillies   » Sun Apr 06, 2014 11:11 pm

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Do we want a pool on whether or not they are salable in Harchong, as they *were* salable in Imperial Russia? See "Dead Souls".

DennisLee wrote:Serfs are not "owned", you cannot buy and sell them. I found this lecture that explains the difference. What Charis could do is offer the Harchong (and other) serfs better land and lordship in the Charis empire, or better yet, freedom from their ties to the land and a paying position in the new industries that are cropping up (like in the steelworks or navy shipbuilding).
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Apr 07, 2014 12:21 am

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The US saw a peak of 1.2 million immigrants in 1907. The vast majority of them came from Europe. That's quite a bit of travel across the Atlantic. Charis could set up passage to Tarot and then to Silverlode. That is quite a bit shorter than crossing the Atlantic. I suspect coasters could make that trip. Passage from the Harchong for delivery to Siddermark is part of the price.

The population of Harchong is 194 million. If 120 million are in North Harchong and 40% of the population are under 30 years old, that implies about 24 million women in peak child bearing age. If Charis bribes the Harchong aristos to allow 8-10 million single Harchongese and another 2-5 million married women and their families, that's 12-15 million women. The total number of immigrants would be around 20-25 million with men and children. That's 2.5 million a year for 10 years and 1.5 million for 15-16 years.

After 10 years or so young Harchong men will have serious problems getting a wife. That will put even more stress on Harchong society.
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