United Provinces devopment

I am re-reading TFT and several things suggest themselves about the potential development of the UP.
-The UP is a huge area with a widely distributed population outside Boisseau and maybe Cheshire.
-That population is built from an aristocracy that is dependent on trade, the cream of Harchong's legendary artisans and serfs and a free peasantry that haven't been brutalized beyond endurance.
-They are remaking their society and their government under the guidance of the Inner Circle.
-EVERYONE in the UP's leadership from local to the federal leadership is extremely inexperienced in the roles history has called them to perform.
-They have to rely on Charisian advice because they have no perspective from their own experience.
-Everyone in the UP has been looked down upon.
*Their aristos were viewed as polluted by trade.
*Their artisans have had to deal with corrupt bureaucrats and aristos to make their living.
*Their peasantry, serfs and reform minded clergy faced their own forms of discrimination.

Given these sorts of attitudes that shaped their pre-revolution mindset, I suspect that most United Provincers have very little love of the society in which they grew up. That society was what it was and circumstances have changed after the revolt. Just as in East Harchong, everyone is sharing power. Everyone has a franchise on sovereignty for the very first time.

The important thing to most of them is that their franchise is not dependent on any one ruler. It is dependent on the rule of law. So long as the laws are upheld impartially, everyone's franchise is protected. I am sure the IC is making sure that message is drilled in mercilessly in all their interactions with the UPers. That means UPers and likely East Harchongians will be the most rabid republicans Safehold has ever seen. They'll make Siddermarkians outside Glacierheart, Thesmar and maybe Shiloh look like crown loyalists in comparison.

That leads me to believe that once RFC begins describing the industrialization of the UP, we'll see that their learning curve is much steeper than Dohlar. The artisans of the UP will be much better able to extrapolate their process into mass production and assembly lines. Furthermore, those artisans will retain their understanding esthetic design. That means UP produced goods will be comparable in quality to Charisian goods but still have that inherent beauty Harchong artisans have imbued into their products for generations.

Given their dispersed geography, that society will fall in love with the steam carriage. Sure trains will be needed to distribute raw materials and products, but individual transport will be necessary to link the people in the small towns of Bedard, Omar, Pasquale and DeCastro. They are already linked with a very good high road system. That translates to me as highways in every sense of 20th century America, btw. Steam cars can achieve 1,000 miles in 25 gallons of water and 25 gallons of "white oil" or kerosene. These capabilities will tempt serfs bound to the land for generations into an orgy of wanderlust.

EVERY UPer will want a steam car. Development of the steam car and steam truck will bloom in the UP. One further suspects that Delthak Boisseau division manufacturing steam carriages will become Safehold's standard of beauty and functionality in that industry. Yup, Boisseau Motive Works will be the pride of the UP!

It also occurs to me that Harchong has a history with secular higher education. They had been focused on teaching administration/bureaucratic studies. How much different would the curriculum be when applied to business administration? Given the IC's influence, those schools would be models in teaching economics, finance, operations and business administration. Given the penchant for Harchong towards flowery turns of phrase, they'll add marketing to the curriculum.

The Up then will begin to standardize the process of business administration, like they standardized the process of government administration. Yes, they'll take their lead from the IC, but they will make the entire affair as systematic as they possibly can. In many ways this will reduce creativity, but it will increase efficiency. They will be like the Japanese in the 1980's. Their organized processes made beautiful electronics devices the US designed much cheaper. They also made cars cheaper and MUCH better quality. This latter event will not likely happen to Charis.

But just as Charis innovates first and then organizes around their innovations, the UP will take Charisian innovations and look to organize the processes better. They have to due to the sheer size of their nation and the lack of relatively inexpensive distribution methods that Charis had. Creating the infrastructure to support a thriving economy will require a much heavier capital investment in the UP than it did in Charis and the Empire of Charis.

This initial focus on organization over innovation will define them moving forward. This doesn't mean they can't innovate, because they will innovate. They will just focus on processes rather than technological applications. I can see the Imperial College at Boisseau becoming the center for organizational studies on Safehold.

Pre-Merlin, Harchong had a near-monopoly of steel thistle silk because they didn't care if serfs got infected cuts from removing the seeds. To me, that sounds like a lot of the steel thistle plantations were in North Harchong -- the southern part of the country is established as not being as dependent on serf labor.

If that's the case, all Charis has to do is start exporting cotton gins with the adaptation to handle steel thistle and the United Provinces has the basis for a profitable textile industry. Especially if some of the skilled weavers survived all the upheavals and can start training others -- given Harchong's love of ornamentation, I'm betting they produced a lot of the fancier fabrics such as brocades.

Julia Minor wrote:If that's the case, all Charis has to do is start exporting cotton gins with the adaptation to handle steel thistle and the United Provinces has the basis for a profitable textile industry. Especially if some of the skilled weavers survived all the upheavals and can start training others -- given Harchong's love of ornamentation, I'm betting they produced a lot of the fancier fabrics such as brocades.

Well, exporting cotton gins and spinning jennys to the UP is a start. Building the textile manufactories that can weave the steel thistle silk into usable fabric is a bit more involved. I don't know enough about the current state of industrial development in the UP to know whether it's within their current capabilities. I suspect it might require a little Armahk Plan financing assistance, but I have no doubt the UP would see the wisdom and want to acquire the capability. Ryhan Mitchail in Charis could certainly provide technical advisors on just how you build and operate a textile plant.

And ultimately, it's a smart economic move. Instead of exporting raw materials that others turn into finished products, move up the value chain and make the finished products yourself.

(I'm seeing amusing examples of the latter where I live. New York State is a major agricultural are. The state government is actively supporting artisan brewing, wine making, and distillation. I know of several distillers that are outgrowths of working farms. Instead of selling all of the harvests, retain some of it and distill it into booze. Ramping up and making money takes time - one distiller who has a booth at a local greenmarket said they aren't yet profitable, but are cash flow positive, and running the distillery doesn't cost them money. It's a long term development effort, but one they see as worthwhile. I agree.)
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Dennis

Julia Minor wrote:If that's the case, all Charis has to do is start exporting cotton gins with the adaptation to handle steel thistle and the United Provinces has the basis for a profitable textile industry. Especially if some of the skilled weavers survived all the upheavals and can start training others -- given Harchong's love of ornamentation, I'm betting they produced a lot of the fancier fabrics such as brocades.

DMcCunney wrote:Well, exporting cotton gins and spinning jennys to the UP is a start. Building the textile manufactories that can weave the steel thistle silk into usable fabric is a bit more involved. I don't know enough about the current state of industrial development in the UP to know whether it's within their current capabilities. I suspect it might require a little Armahk Plan financing assistance, but I have no doubt the UP would see the wisdom and want to acquire the capability. Ryhan Mitchail in Charis could certainly provide technical advisors on just how you build and operate a textile plant.

And ultimately, it's a smart economic move. Instead of exporting raw materials that others turn into finished products, move up the value chain and make the finished products yourself.

(I'm seeing amusing examples of the latter where I live. New York State is a major agricultural are. The state government is actively supporting artisan brewing, wine making, and distillation. I know of several distillers that are outgrowths of working farms. Instead of selling all of the harvests, retain some of it and distill it into booze. Ramping up and making money takes time - one distiller who has a booth at a local greenmarket said they aren't yet profitable, but are cash flow positive, and running the distillery doesn't cost them money. It's a long term development effort, but one they see as worthwhile. I agree.)
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Dennis

What we tend to forget is that Harchong grew Steel Thistle and would have quite a bit of those plants growing. What we don't know is just where those plants grow. Charis' climate is closer to South Harchong. It may well be that's were the antebellum Harchongese production was centered. Those plants may well require a tropical climate. Won't do Northern Harchong much good if so.

If Steel Thistle can grow up north, then there should be quite a few people in the UP who know how to grow, harvest, spin and weave it. Having the steel thistle genny to facilitate getting the seeds out would be a huge productivity improvement. Perhaps a sufficient improvement to rival imported finished bolts of cotton. This assumes that cotton does not grow in the UP.

PeterZ wrote:If Steel Thistle can grow up north, then there should be quite a few people in the UP who know how to grow, harvest, spin and weave it. Having the steel thistle genny to facilitate getting the seeds out would be a huge productivity improvement. Perhaps a sufficient improvement to rival imported finished bolts of cotton. This assumes that cotton does not grow in the UP.

Terran cotton is a subtropical/tropical plant ... but would have been genetically adjusted by Shan-wei's team to grow on Safehold in the first place. Given that the planet averages cooler than Terra, she might have made the cotton plant more cold-tolerant. It's pure speculation, though.

I think we have textev that steel thistle grows in a wider climate range, but I'd have to go digging through my Kindle to confirm that.

PeterZ wrote:What we tend to forget is that Harchong grew Steel Thistle and would have quite a bit of those plants growing. What we don't know is just where those plants grow. Charis' climate is closer to South Harchong. It may well be that's were the antebellum Harchongese production was centered. Those plants may well require a tropical climate. Won't do Northern Harchong much good if so.

Agreed, but we don't know were it grows. My guess is actually North Harchong. Limited and extremely expensive production of steel thistle silk would be possible simply because of the number of serfs considered expendable to do the labor of getting out the seeds. South HArchong was never as dependent upon serf labor as the North was.

If Steel Thistle can grow up north, then there should be quite a few people in the UP who know how to grow, harvest, spin and weave it. Having the steel thistle genny to facilitate getting the seeds out would be a huge productivity improvement. Perhaps a sufficient improvement to rival imported finished bolts of cotton. This assumes that cotton does not grow in the UP.

It needs more than the cotton gin to remove the seeds and spinning jenny to produce yarn. Proper volume production requires the sort of powered looms the Luddites were unhappy about in Industrial Revolution England. Powered looms destroyed their trade as hand weavers because they couldn't match the volume, quality or pricing powered looms made possible.

Rhyan Mitchail in needs to provide advisors in how to build and operate the textile manufactories he built in Charis.

I don't think steel thistle silk will ever compete on price with cotton, but it will be available at prices ordinary folks can afford as luxury goods, and not just a status marker for wealthy nobles and churchmen.
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Dennis

PeterZ wrote:If Steel Thistle can grow up north, then there should be quite a few people in the UP who know how to grow, harvest, spin and weave it. Having the steel thistle genny to facilitate getting the seeds out would be a huge productivity improvement. Perhaps a sufficient improvement to rival imported finished bolts of cotton. This assumes that cotton does not grow in the UP.

Julia Minor wrote:
Terran cotton is a subtropical/tropical plant ... but would have been genetically adjusted by Shan-wei's team to grow on Safehold in the first place. Given that the planet averages cooler than Terra, she might have made the cotton plant more cold-tolerant. It's pure speculation, though.

I think we have textev that steel thistle grows in a wider climate range, but I'd have to go digging through my Kindle to confirm that.

Let's accept your recollection. There should be more than enough sets and peasants who know enough about spinning and weaving to operate powered looms. Charis doesn't have to offer much in the way of training. Sure, working the machines requires training, but translating their prior weaving knowledge into the new powered environment should be easy. That argues to textile prices to drop even further as the UP begins to industrialize and leverage their existing skills.

Julia Minor wrote:

PeterZ wrote:If Steel Thistle can grow up north, then there should be quite a few people in the UP who know how to grow, harvest, spin and weave it. Having the steel thistle genny to facilitate getting the seeds out would be a huge productivity improvement. Perhaps a sufficient improvement to rival imported finished bolts of cotton. This assumes that cotton does not grow in the UP.

Terran cotton is a subtropical/tropical plant ... but would have been genetically adjusted by Shan-wei's team to grow on Safehold in the first place. Given that the planet averages cooler than Terra, she might have made the cotton plant more cold-tolerant. It's pure speculation, though.

I think we have textev that steel thistle grows in a wider climate range, but I'd have to go digging through my Kindle to confirm that.

The first mention I found was in _By Schism Rent Asunder_, October YoG 892, part III (page 459 of the original hardcover edition).

Steel thistle silk = body armour!
No reason it can't be as effective as Kevlar.