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Direction of the story

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Re: Direction of the story
Post by n7axw   » Tue Nov 17, 2015 11:24 pm

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PeterZ wrote:A very astute analysis of Raynahld motives and attitudes, Jeff. I can't find fault with any of it. Can we take your analysis further? I suspect we can.

I think that Charisian industrial might is the carrot that just may draw out whatever "greatness" resides in the Pigeon King. His aping Charis allowed Dohlar to be the most successful jihadi nation in fighting Charis. If the Inquisition is in error regarding Charisian innovation, Dohlar can adopt those innovations and strengthen its economy and military. It can do that without foresaking the CoGA, but only if the Inquisition is in error.

I can see the Raynahld wanting what Charis has enough to support a CoGA internal move to reign in the Inquisition. If Magwair and Duchairn can get Clyntahn out of the way, Dohlar can continue to support the CoGA but adopt Charisian innovations. That might just be enough to get the King to focus.


I could be really mistaken about this. But I don't see Zion reining in the inquisition unless Clyntahn is gone, and even then, if the inquisition were to formalize the power grab Clyntahn has pulled off, his successor could be as bad as he is. I would give Duchairn and Maigwair about a 30% chance of survival and wresting power from the inquisition and about a 70% chance of being dead.

That means that if the inquisition in Dohlar is going to be corralled, either the Dohlarans have to do it themselves or it happens at the point of ICA bayonets. We will see how that works out sooner than things ripen in Zion.

As I see the story playing out, things will come to a head in Dohlar fairly quickly now.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by CJK   » Wed Nov 18, 2015 5:43 pm

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King Rahnald has managed one good thing in his rule, as Dohlar has outperformed every other secular ally the CoGA had on and off the battlefield. This usually indicates that those who DO make the decisions in Dohlar are at least competent. Our current problem is that we know so little of these policy makers outside of the military commanders.

Given how the rules of a jihad work in Safehold, especially how the naval commanders of Desnair acted after their defeat there has to be significant pressure to cut a deal. Going out on a limb here but I find it implausible that Dohlar will wait for Charis to show up to ditch the jihad. The combo of knowing exactly what is heading their way, plus being vastly more invested in maritime trade and a track record of being the smartest mainland kingdom indicate a breakaway.

Now the real question is how this breakaway will be carried out and what Clyntahn has prepared to stop it. The Sword of Schueler looms large in my thinking, given how much Clyntahn distrusts Dohlar he should have prepared something to decapitate any effort to leave the jihad. A weak, terrified king is perfect for Clyntahn's purposes of controlling Dohlar if he can get his hands on him. After all it was sufficient to keep Thirsk in a holding pattern was it not?

What I suspect we may see is a variation of the Irys and Daivyn rescue and by an amazing coincidence we actually have a young, soon to be ruling prince in danger from the inquisition. :lol: If we are really lucky they will be defended by Nimue and not Merlin, after all Merlin's absence will be remarked upon and the inquisition is probably paranoid enough this time around to be concerned.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by BobG   » Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:48 pm

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Hildum wrote:I was thinking about the comments made about how weak the government of Dohlar is, the relative power of the individual lords in their lands, and it occurred to me that there is no reason to assume the Dolhar will survive as a state. Did I remember correctly that Hanth is directly threatening Thirsk's duchy?

Not sure I want to post more on this direction until after the next book has been sent to the printer….

No, Hanth is threatening Thorast's Duchy.

I am wondering, given the mention of Rahynyld's discussion of abdication with Duke Fern, and Thorast's problems with his duchy, as well as Thirsk's relief from concerns for his family's safety, if we might see the Royal Council encourage Rahynyld to abdicate, with Fern, Thirsk, or Ahlverez as Regent.

Then, when Clyntahn orders the Navy people to Zion, the regent refuses, and expels all Inquisitors (except Maik) from Dohlar and the army. That's not totally rejecting the CoGA, but to Clyntahn it is, and then things get really interesting.

-- Bob G
SF & Fantasy: The only things better than Chocolate.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by n7axw   » Thu Nov 19, 2015 12:21 am

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BobG wrote:
Hildum wrote:I was thinking about the comments made about how weak the government of Dohlar is, the relative power of the individual lords in their lands, and it occurred to me that there is no reason to assume the Dolhar will survive as a state. Did I remember correctly that Hanth is directly threatening Thirsk's duchy?

Not sure I want to post more on this direction until after the next book has been sent to the printer….

No, Hanth is threatening Thorast's Duchy.

I am wondering, given the mention of Rahynyld's discussion of abdication with Duke Fern, and Thorast's problems with his duchy, as well as Thirsk's relief from concerns for his family's safety, if we might see the Royal Council encourage Rahynyld to abdicate, with Fern, Thirsk, or Ahlverez as Regent.

Then, when Clyntahn orders the Navy people to Zion, the regent refuses, and expels all Inquisitors (except Maik) from Dohlar and the army. That's not totally rejecting the CoGA, but to Clyntahn it is, and then things get really interesting.

-- Bob G


It will be interesting to see how Thorast reacts when ICA boots trample on his duchy. It is not at all clear that he has any competence beyond political infighting. But could he at least become a team player in dealing with the crisis? Or will he keep trying to game the system?

Actually, expelling the inquisitors would be a rejection of the COGA. There were two issues for Clyntahn and the others launching Jihad. The first was the over Clyntahn's perception that the proscriptions were being violated. The more important one, however, was over the COGA's authority. There would be a no more direct way for Dohlar to reject the COGA's authority than to expel the inquisitors. That, in Clyntahn's mind, would range Dohlar with the heretics sinse for Zion, the church's authority over secular rulers is the primary issue to start with.

Whether or not Dohlar can make the break with Zion before the allies force the break, I see depending on two things. First the Royal Council has to be able to come up with a cogent policy to act upon which is in doubt given their lack of consensus. The second thing would be if they are do assemble the needed force to deal with the inquisition without being prevented from doing so by those same inquisitors.

The thing is, no matter how devout and theologically loyal you might be, being crapped on gets old in a hurry. And Clyntahn has s**t all over Dohlar. That is not loyalty enhancing behavior. To mention the more visible ones, insisting that the RDN turn over Manthyr and his people crapped on the honor of the RDN. You can be certain that Thirsk is not the only one upset about that. In fact we have evidence that at the Battle of the narrows some Dohlarans were killing Charisans who could no longer resist precisely to avoid having to turn them over to the inquisition.

Finally, Sir Dunkyn's sending home the Dohlaran officers after the action that freed the POWs was a stroke of genius. It was sort of a way of saying to Dohlar, "You turned over our people who honorably surrendered to the inquisition and the punishment. Now you can see what it feels like to have your people handed over for the punishment because of their failure." How Dohlar and the RDN in particular react to that will be very interesting indeed. I wouldn't be at all surprised that the demand for the defeated officers turns out to be the straw that breaks the camel's back. "Go crap on someone else, Clyntahn!"

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by Expert snuggler   » Thu Nov 19, 2015 2:22 am

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>assemble the needed force to deal with the inquisition without being prevented from doing so by those same inquisitors.

I know someone who could help effectively.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by JeffEngel   » Thu Nov 19, 2015 8:15 am

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Expert snuggler wrote:>assemble the needed force to deal with the inquisition without being prevented from doing so by those same inquisitors.

I know someone who could help effectively.

Indeed. That's one of the likelier reasons, to my mind (well, in addition to the compassionate human touch) for Merlin to deliver the news of Thirsk's family's safety personally rather than with one of the Brick Specials like Koryn Gahrvai would get. Merlin presents a secure method for Dohlaran conspirators to communicate, along with a bonanza of intelligence on the opposition and who may be a friend who's been too, too quiet and to be known as a friend to other friends.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by SciFi90   » Thu Dec 03, 2015 1:31 am

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n7axw wrote:There are a number on loose ends on how the story might end that have been dangling for several books now, some dating back to SoS back even further to Clyntahn's purge of the vicarate in AMF. I thought that it be time to go back and re-examine the subject to see if HFQ sheds light to refine our speculations somewhat.

The first that comes to my mind is Duchairn's plotting. Nothing further on that front that I can see. So far Duchairn bemoans Clyntahn but rationalizes his way through continuing in his present role. No action on any plot. But that is still there waiting to pop into the open. So who knows?

Then there is SoS Which narrowly failed to topple the Protector. Heavy cost in lives and the ruin of Clyntahn's reputation although that is still being unveiled. In addition to that it provides Charis with opportunity to put its armies on the mainland...

Integration of Corisande into the Empire smoothed by Daivyn and Irys' return and the attempted assasination of Irys and Hector on their wedding day. Corisandian troops coming up to be inserted into the conlict at an opportune moment?

Sharleyan's nobles plotting...

Nynian inserts herself into the situation in a new way as she "sniffs out" Merlin and we learn about Helm Cleaver... Could this intercept the vector of Duchairn's plotting?

Thirsk's situation heats up. Family is safely out of Dohlar. How will this impact Dohlar's participation in the Jihad and the overall story line?

Clyntahn's rationality deteriorates...he threatens to cast aside Maigwair and Duchairn and "their technicians" and give inquisition direct control of Jihad. Would this be a literary device for bringing a quick end to this part of the story? Or does Dirchain and Maigwair take successful steps in self defense and corral Clyntahn?

Lots more could be said here. Feel free to add them. All of the things RFC has afloat end up being a quite a brew. What I would suggest we discuss is how these threads advance the story as a whole...

Opine away!!! :D

Don

The ultimate result of this series is that Merlin and Nimue will lead Safehold into a resurgence of invention and technical growth. Meeting the Gbaba again would extend the series , and require possibly centuries of human development of technology. It would seem unlikely that the series would go that far.
Somewhere along the line the existing Rakuri must be neutralized. It could be released on Charis; that would certainly complicate things, and delay technological advancement. It seems unlikely as a facet of the series.
Given the most likely end result, we may enjoy Mr. Weber's description(s) of the journey(s) to that end.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by SciFi90   » Thu Dec 03, 2015 1:40 am

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JeffEngel wrote:
PeterZ wrote:Maik forcing the issue is an interesting proposition. He harms his own position because as an Inquisitor, he has taken an oath to obey the Grand Inquisitor. Will his betraying his oath cost him respect with Dohlar's generally loyalist populace? Will his disobedience force Dohlar to either support him and then join the Reform movement or reject him regardless of how much the populace may hate Clyntahn?

I just don't see Dohlar joining the Reform movement. They may well support the non-Clyntahn factions of the CoGA, but I don't see Dohlar as a whole rejecting the CoGA prior to the reveal. So to succeed in any maneuvering in Dohlar, Maik needs to move within established CoGA politics.

That would argue Thirsk also maneuvers within the context of established CoGA politics. In all likelihood both will move together or not at all.

"Established CoGA politics" is a slippery thing anymore. On the other side, you've got:
1 - The Church of Charis, which itself enshrines freedom of conscience so consistency of doctrine there is a weak reed;
2 - Charisian "Temple Loyalists" who nevertheless do not throw themselves into CoC services with explosives and blow up like Clyntahn would expect them to;
3 - Reformists who may not quite identify with the CoC but certainly don't identify as an opposition to it in Corisande at least and probably elsewhere in the Empire; and
4 - The new Reformed Church of Siddarmark, which is really just what happens when the Temple throws you out and you still feel like following the Writ and worshiping God and the Archangels the way you always have.

On "their" side, you've got:
1 - The Church of Clyntahn, where the church is all about killing people who do, uh, something, something bad, definitely, but the only definite claims you get that way from them come as a result of torture - and oh yes, Mother Church is now all about torture, and fear;
2 - The CoGA that helps the sick, succors the poor, teaches you right and wrong as a kid in Wednesday School, that's still kinda there (thank you, Vicar Rhobair) but seems to be operating still at the sufferance of the Church of Clyntahn when it's the only one most of you ever knew or loved;
3 - varieties of it that suggested that it'd run into some troubles, lost its way a bit, and could use some adjustment (though, unfortunately, that kind of talk will get you tortured and killed nowadays); and
4 - the genially corrupt, dispensations and judicial judgments for a price, Temple power machine that's developed over the last few centuries, rather distracting (2) from its work, prompting (3) to come about at all, and opening the door for its much worse successor, (1).

All it takes to cross over to the other side is to have the Church of Clyntahn kick you out too; all it takes to get that is to defy it in a way that not all parties are content to hush up. (Desnair still pays tithes, and the Church of Clyntahn does need them.)

I doubt there's really room for Maik, Thirsk, or Dohlar generally to buck Clyntahn at all without having to go all the way over, as far as Clyntahn and the Temple are concerned. In Siddarmark, they've had to adopt Reform just because they're not allowed to be orthodox anymore. That's not even a bad description of how it played in the Out Islands. If you just want to have any of the CoGA varieties that isn't the Church of Clyntahn, you've got to rebel. If you want to play the old corrupt power politics game but without people getting maimed to death now, you've got to adopt some form of reform the Temple will not accept.

I doubt Dohlar is eager for anything radical; they're just coming to a point where the alternative to radical is being in a concentration camp, as guard, executioner, or prisoner.

It seems likely that Dohlar's king and character may be simply background color, and not intended to depict a character that has great influence on Thirsk's decision. If Thirsk can (and seems likely to) "leave the Church" as controlled by Clyntahn, he would have as little trouble leaving an irresolute and ineffective king.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by JeffEngel   » Thu Dec 03, 2015 7:58 am

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SciFi90 wrote:It seems likely that Dohlar's king and character may be simply background color, and not intended to depict a character that has great influence on Thirsk's decision. If Thirsk can (and seems likely to) "leave the Church" as controlled by Clyntahn, he would have as little trouble leaving an irresolute and ineffective king.

Thirsk's still bound by oath to him. That's not trivial. And the government derives practically all its legitimacy and authority from the King as approved by the Church. It's not about Rahnyld's charm, charisma, intelligence, foresight, personal magnetism, winning personality, or leadership skills - he's a sad failure along all of those. But he's the man in that crucial position. He's got ministers acting in his name, but that's just a kind of caretaking role, without the authority to make major policy redirections. So Dohlar is going to need a bit of decision out of the Pigeon King or a coup, and Thirsk is likely to be central to either one of those.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by n7axw   » Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:12 pm

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JeffEngel wrote:
SciFi90 wrote:It seems likely that Dohlar's king and character may be simply background color, and not intended to depict a character that has great influence on Thirsk's decision. If Thirsk can (and seems likely to) "leave the Church" as controlled by Clyntahn, he would have as little trouble leaving an irresolute and ineffective king.

Thirsk's still bound by oath to him. That's not trivial. And the government derives practically all its legitimacy and authority from the King as approved by the Church. It's not about Rahnyld's charm, charisma, intelligence, foresight, personal magnetism, winning personality, or leadership skills - he's a sad failure along all of those. But he's the man in that crucial position. He's got ministers acting in his name, but that's just a kind of caretaking role, without the authority to make major policy redirections. So Dohlar is going to need a bit of decision out of the Pigeon King or a coup, and Thirsk is likely to be central to either one of those.


None of which will be easy for Thirsk, even now that his family is safe. There are really two time limiting factors here. First you have Charis closing in which means that unless they remove themselves from the war voluntarily, it will be forced upon them. The second one is that we know that Clyntahn plans to gather those officers and bring them to Zion along With Thirsk. However according to textev, that shouldn't be until the following summer. So the issue of Dohlar's participation in the war should be resolved prior to that, putting both Thirsk and the officers beyond Clintahn's reach.

Don

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