HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

Hi All,

Thank you RFC so very much for another snippet!

I'm glad that things were far less mortal than we worried about, but families are wonderful however frustrating life's many entanglements are.

It's curious that again despite checking the Safehold Forum several times Sunday and Monday I didn't discover the new snippet until this afternoon, NTM all the forums were offline last night, were they being reset or upgraded?

For the record, LaMA's last chapter told us Ahlverez was halfway to Thesmar [ie then about 300 miles away], the last place he knew Rychtyr was, and had less than 35,000 Dohlarans plus less than 13,000 Desnarian infantry [sorry not many horses to eat] for less than 48,000 to start with on their retreat, so he's lost about 20% over a couple of 5days ap0parently [but we may get a time mark in the next snippet], which isn't surprising if he's pushing the march so fast they can't forage.

So far, we don't know if he's being harassed by even a single regiment of dragoons [the next paragraph or two may inform us], who could easily appear to be a much larger force, and retreat out of range if he ever stopped to give battle, the last thing he'd want to do.

Don's quite right, as others including myself have pointed out, that controlling the road network from Thesmar to Trevyr doesn't mean there's any concentrated force in front of Ahlverez to stop him, as Hanth needs all his ~20,000 men against Rychtyr.

As I've previously pointed out, Ahlverez might capture a road supply convoy for Hanth near Cheryk before crossing the Seridahn at a point well out of range of anything Thesmar's ~10,000 man garrison might do, where he can then rest and reprovision his men before considering marching on to Dohlar.

That's all for now, tune in later for lots more.

L

lyonheart wrote:Hi All,

Thank you RFC so very much for another snippet!

I'm glad that things were far less mortal than we worried about, but families are wonderful however frustrating life's many entanglements are.

It's curious that again despite checking the Safehold Forum several times Sunday and Monday I didn't discover the new snippet until this afternoon, NTM all the forums were offline last night, were they being reset or upgraded?

For the record, LaMA's last chapter told us Ahlverez was halfway to Thesmar [ie then about 300 miles away], the last place he knew Rychtyr was, and had less than 35,000 Dohlarans plus less than 13,000 Desnarian infantry [sorry not many horses to eat] for less than 48,000 to start with on their retreat, so he's lost about 20% over a couple of 5days ap0parently [but we may get a time mark in the next snippet], which isn't surprising if he's pushing the march so fast they can't forage.

So far, we don't know if he's being harassed by even a single regiment of dragoons [the next paragraph or two may inform us], who could easily appear to be a much larger force, and retreat out of range if he ever stopped to give battle, the last thing he'd want to do.

Don's quite right, as others including myself have pointed out, that controlling the road network from Thesmar to Trevyr doesn't mean there's any concentrated force in front of Ahlverez to stop him, as Hanth needs all his ~20,000 men against Rychtyr.

As I've previously pointed out, Ahlverez might capture a road supply convoy for Hanth near Cheryk before crossing the Seridahn at a point well out of range of anything Thesmar's ~10,000 man garrison might do, where he can then rest and reprovision his men before considering marching on to Dohlar.

That's all for now, tune in later for lots more.

L

Short of being intercepted by allied forces which while possible may well not be likely given the need to concentrate against a reinforced Rychtyr, the critical challenge is getting across that river... If he doesn't manage that, eventually he will be run down or pinned against the river once he is found and forces are freed up to deal with him.

I've been thinking about this. There may well be a ferry available, but if there is, it stands to reason that it is uncomfortably close to one of the garrisons that Ahlverez needs to skirt around to continue his journey.

The only other thing I've been able to come up with is rafting across, which is probably doable, but 40,000 men is a lot of rafts and would probably be pretty time consuming to construct.

I wonder about a temporary bridge... something constructed and lashed together with rope, but I don't know how that would be done and held in place against the current...

I remember as a kid constructing a raft and using it to cross the West Gallatin River west of Bozeman. We made it against a pretty strong current, but we came out a couple miles down stream from where we started. My dad gave me a rather firm lecture about the risks of having more nerve than common sense and the virtues of self preservation...

Awe dad, if Huck Finn could do it, so could I...

Don

n7axw wrote:
I've been thinking about this. There may well be a ferry available, but if there is, it stands to reason that it is uncomfortably close to one of the garrisons that Ahlverez needs to skirt around to continue his journey.

The only other thing I've been able to come up with is rafting across, which is probably doable, but 40,000 men is a lot of rafts and would probably be pretty time consuming to construct.

I wonder about a temporary bridge... something constructed and lashed together with rope, but I don't know how that would be done and held in place against the current...
Don

Even with there being a garrison at the ferry (or high bridge), it is unlikely to be able to hold ~40K men for long especially as they seem to have at least some artillery. For those thinking the artillery is slowing the force, it is effectively wagons much like the supply wagons that are also with the force. A ferry would be much less optimal than a high bridge for Ahlverez, as getting his entire force across would likely take more than one 5 day with a ferry.

Castenea wrote:

n7axw wrote:
I've been thinking about this. There may well be a ferry available, but if there is, it stands to reason that it is uncomfortably close to one of the garrisons that Ahlverez needs to skirt around to continue his journey.

The only other thing I've been able to come up with is rafting across, which is probably doable, but 40,000 men is a lot of rafts and would probably be pretty time consuming to construct.

I wonder about a temporary bridge... something constructed and lashed together with rope, but I don't know how that would be done and held in place against the current...
Don

Even with there being a garrison at the ferry (or high bridge), it is unlikely to be able to hold ~40K men for long especially as they seem to have at least some artillery. For those thinking the artillery is slowing the force, it is effectively wagons much like the supply wagons that are also with the force. A ferry would be much less optimal than a high bridge for Ahlverez, as getting his entire force across would likely take more than one 5 day with a ferry.

It would seem that there would have to be a bridge someplace, doesn't it? However, that doesn't mean that there is a bridge where he needs it.

I was thinking about that bridge in Eric's 1632 that the Swedes built across that river to attack Tilly. I wonder how they went about doing that...

Don

I just looked up pontoon bridges on wiki, and hit the link to cumberland bridges. It's just barely possible Ahlverez' forces could build one - but not likely, given the general mistrust of innovation the CoGA has instilled in its subjects. Boats for 40,000? Even less likely. Far too much would be required in terms of both time and materials.

Ahlverez' best hope would be to take a bridge, and those guarding it, by surprise and cross quickly, then run for Dohlar. That would best be accomplished somewhere that's far from both Thesmar and Hanth's forces. Looking at the second to the last map in LAMA, it looks like either Yairdyn or the Somyr-Roymark Road would be Ahlverez' best options. It would be a gamble, but Ahlverez, not knowing just exactly how good CE's intelligence is, likely would believe it's the best option he has. That is, if no CE forces find him earlier...

This possibility may well be why he's still dragging his artillery along. He'd probably abandon it as soon as his forces are past the river.

Hi Dilandu,

I have to go with Isaac Newton and the rest that Safehold's experience is quite different from Earth's history; gunpowder was discovered only around 70 years ago, your Ottoman siege cannon was over a hundred years after the first artillery was made and used on earth in the 14th century, and its arguable that despite the quality of Safehold metallurgy that RFC has mentioned many times, that until Merlin showed up no one had ever considered breech-loading was at all possible because everyone knew the obvious difficulties.

The fact that the rear screw breech wasn't copied by everyone else indicates the recognised technical limits at the time, while side breech loaders became so infamous for their failures that it wasn't until 400 years later that breech loading was tried again and perfected.

Charis has now advanced almost to the 20th century, but only because of Merlin and OWL guiding the way for the inner circle.

L

PS. Turrets for river warfare will happen on the next generation of iron or 'steelclads' or two, but to do everything right the first time?

How obvious would that be?

Besides being contrary to everything Merlin is trying to do.


[quote="Dilandu"][quote="isaac_newton"]

Great snippet

Why should it not be a suprise to one specific man? Even if there were breachloading bombards in the early history, that seems to have been quite a while back - centuries maybe, so the knowledge of them would have faded from general memory. Everyone 'knows' that artiliary pieces are muzzle loaders!

Besides we all know that not everyone is a history buff - especially some soldiers [/quote]

It's a point, i must admit. [/quote]

Hi McGuiness,

Having Rychtyr and Ahlverez both make it back to Dohlar has seemed likely to me since LaMA, albeit in less than at their best.

Thirsk's summary of the news seemed so obviously logical that the human generals are going to upset that excellent prediction is ways we don't even suspect yet.

Anyone care to make some predictions?

Ahlverez has indeed lost several thousand men so far, though I still expect him to make it across the Seridahn with most of his army.

Lashing long rafts together to form a bridge with timbers to cover the gaps would seem the fastest way to cross quickly in a single night, which seems quite possible once the rafts are made.

What will the next snippet explain, and so soon!

thanks again RFC!

L

McGuiness wrote:Thanks for the long snippet RFC, and we're all glad that nobody in your household seems about to shuffle off this mortal coil. Our selfish natures are of course wishing you'd hire a full-time handyman/cook/nanny/chauffeur/IT specialist/doctor to solve all those nagging problems, but that's a rather tough resume to fill!

So now we know how the underwater charges were detonated, and we've seen the six inch rifled breech loaders in action. They did Howsmyn proud, although Captain Bahrns seems rightly nauseated by the ease of inflicting that much carnage. Still, let the other bastard die for his country whenever possible...

Too bad the divers are going to have to place explosives all over again five miles upriver. I hope Evrytyn comes into artillery range soon...

I'm fairly surprised Ahlverez has kept it together this well, considering how fast his army is running, the poor condition of his draft animals, and how famished his men must be by now. I thought he'd have lost several thousand men during his retreat due to sickness, injury, and exhaustion. Competent enemy commanders are so annoying!

If only Hanth knew about Ahlverez and where he is... hmm, how could someone possibly manage to let him know?

"Seijin Ahbraim Zhevons, report for duty!"

PeterZ wrote:
Regarding Dohlar, is it better to invade outright or to use the Gulf of Dohlar to shatter their coastal cities and production centers? Personally, using a coastal raiding strategy backed by ironclads will require fewer men and resources than an invasion. However, without invading the RDA might remain intact for an inopportune counter attack against the allied flank. In the end I suspect the ICN and ICA will attack both along the coast and via the Sheryl-Seridahn canal. Use the Gulf raiding forces to disperse as much of the RDA's strength as possible along the coastal cities, then punch out the remaining forces deployed to block the Allied advance. I suspect this will require fewer men overall than invading without the coastal raids.

The dispersion of the RDA will cripple the RDA's ability to concentrate forces anywhere. If the RDS refuses to disperse, their cities and production centers will be wrecked even more thoroughly as the ICN can use fewer resources per target. Heck, Windshear's mounted raiders could really rampage deep along the Dohlaran coast with near impunity unless the RDA deployed enough nodal forces along the coast. As it stands, enough nodal forces along the coast to deter serious raiding means fewer forces along the Siddermark-Dohlar border for Eastshare to punch out.

As for the CoGA keeping Dairnyth, fat chance. They don't have the troops deployed to do that. Even if the CoGA is willing to let Dohlar fall in order to keep Dairnyth, they don't have enough troops to withstand the concentrated power of Eastshare, High Mount, Hanth and an ironclad or two firing 6" shells. I don't see any number of forces in and around Dairnyth that can stand up to the sort of pounding Eastshare will dish out in any siege and eventual assault.

The consensus strategy for Dohlar seems to be (in summary):

1 - Eliminate their ability to project power into Siddarmark. (Pretty much done)
2 - Eliminate their ability to threaten Alliance forces. (In progress but needs the KH VIIs to close the deal)
3 - Effectively isolate Dohlar to minimize Church influence. (Ditto)
4 - Use the fleet & army raids to put enough pressure on Dohlar to force a political decision to reach an accommodation with the Alliance.

It's comparable to what happened with Emerald and Tarot: Use enough force to drive the political process. Harder to do in this case, of course: a lot more blood has been spilled. But if it works then it leaves Alliance forces intact and free to deal with the main Church forces.

jms

PeterZ wrote:You might well be right. If they attack into Siddermark and the jihadi economy collapses, the CoGA's last effective army will be gone without a chance recruiting another. If Magwair and Duchairn can slow the GHoGatA advance enough, they can keep that army when the wheels come off.

I suspect if the CoGA economy is about fall apart, Duchairn will suspect it and plan around it. Magwair is smart enough to take Duchairn's suggestions/advice regarding such matters.

One thing the Charisian Army seems to have a talent for is getting an opponent to attack into their kill-zone. I'm not sure that can scale up to taking on Harchong, but if it can it would make winning the war a lot less bloody (at least for the Alliance).

If the Church's economy collapses look for a confrontation with Clyntahn, who no doubt will expect his forces to operate solely powered by their Faith.

jms

Good to hear everything is going all right, RFC.