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HFQ Official Snippet #20

This fascinating series is a combination of historical seafaring, swashbuckling adventure, and high technological science-fiction. Join us in a discussion!
Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:26 am

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What happens if Ahlvarez is captured with his men and kept with all the other POWs captured in the Kyplinger? I suspect that Ahvarez will turn that group into a coherent unit. Fast forward to the destruction of Dohlar's coastal cities by the KH VIIs and the shredding of Dohlar's armed forces. Dohlar can turn into Somalia as the petty aristos fight for supremacy or an effective leader turns up. Thirsk is either dead or does not have enough pull with the army to gather a sufficient force to consolidate power. How much is Ahlvarez and his coherent force worth then? Quite a lot if the goal is to make Dohlar stable.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by JeffEngel   » Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:52 am

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McGuiness wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:I'd like to add: Merlin impersonating Thirsk for the apparent assassination. Thirsk is whisked away; his heart-torn but Church-loyal assassin can report a successful operation; Nimue gets the family out; happy endings.
Great idea, but unfortunately a PICA can only be reconfigured in a limited fashion. Quoting Sharleyan: “Well, I must say you’re much … solider-looking in person,” Sharleyan observed ... "And you really don’t look very much like Merlin. But there’s … something ... A family resemblance, I suppose.”

“Bone structure, probably,” Nimue replied ... “He altered his a bit when he decided he had to be a man instead of a woman, but it’s still basically the same, really, except for the jawline.”


Since there's been no mention of a PICA imitating the appearance of anyone else, which the TF certainly would have frowned upon, while RFC has gone into great detail regarding the limitations of a PICA's ability to alter its appearance, I highly doubt that either Merlin or Nimue could impersonate Thirsk. Merlin is too tall and Nimue is too short for starters, and there isn't much variation available in a PICA's height. (Which was a major reason that Nimue is much shorter than Merlin - she can imitate both a woman or a man, as long as she wear heels.)

Thanks. I wouldn't put too much weight on it not having been mentioned though: given that the Federation would have frowned on it, it would not have been a regular practice then, but what the Federation would have frowned on isn't governing what Merlin, Nimue et al do on Safehold. If Nimue in heels may do - if poor lighting and more conventional disguise techniques can full in the rest - it could still work out. The reconfiguration done for Merlin especially and Nimue wasn't to reach any disguise goal but mostly just to tweak Nimue Alban's appearance enough to be a man or be a plausible female height for Safehold, so those two at least aren't establishing the limits of reconfigurations. Even Merlin's other identities aren't for specific appearances so much as looking not just like Merlin.
I think Thirsk will manage his own escape, with the help of Ahlvyn Khapahr. With Thirsk "dead" there's no reason for the Inquisition to keep his family in "protective custody." At that point they can quietly slip away and join his corpse in exile. :lol:

That one is far and away the top of my list of most likely possibilities too; I'm just not as tight in my list of flat-out not-going-to-happen ones.
There's also the possibility that the ICN attack on Gorath Bay may result in a reshuffling of Dohlaran royalty, since King Rahnyld may end up hanging by the neck until dead. (If Cayleb is feeling charitable!) :twisted:

Should something like that occur, a regency council will be needed, and who better to serve on it than the heroic commander of the NoG who actually defeated several Charisian war galleons, and whose researchers added greatly to the defense during the Battle of Gorath Bay?

I'd toss Ahlverez into the mix as well, once he's no longer a POW. That won't occur until the EoC and Dohlar reach terms. That may seem to be a stretch at the moment, but Dohlar is about to have its armies decimated and chased back to its borders. It's going to be cut off from all the other CoGA forces, and it faces a resurgent Siddarmark out for blood on its eastern border. Finally, it may very well lose its king and have an enemy fleet in Gorath Bay able to shell most of the city with impunity.

In that case reaching terms with the allies will be a very good idea, especially since Clyntahn isn't going to have an easy time punishing "cowards" and "traitors" when he can't even send assassins into the country. :lol:

The terms? Here's some possibilities:

1. Dohlar renounces the jihad.
2. War reparations to Siddarmark.
3. Reestablishment of trade.
4. Limitations on the size of the Dohlaran military.
5. A regency council with Thirsk as a member, since
he's known to be an honorable man.
6. A possible arranged marriage with Zhan or
Zhanayt, depending on the age and sex of Rahnyld's
children. (But I wouldn't want to be the one
married off to a Dohlaran, since I doubt Dohlar
will be quick to forgive the hanging of their king.
Perhaps Cayleb will only require him to abdicate.)
7. Recognition of the CoC as an alternative way to
God, with a mandate requiring religious toleration
and allowing CoC congregations in Dohlar.

Feel free to add your own terms, or tell me why some I've suggested won't work. For example, the marriage of state may be impossible if Rahnyld is executed, and recognition of the CoC as the official reformist church may simply spark a religious civil war within Dohlar. Cayleb and Merlin are smart enough not to ask for terms that will only make things worse.

Zhan is spoken for, engaged to Princess Marhya of Emerald. Zhanayt is not; neither are two of four children of the House of Baytz, which is currently among the most high-ranking in the Empire. (Chisholm and Corisande are thin for surviving royalty; I don't recall about Tarot but it's not in the same prestige league.)

I do agree with others that a hands-off approach as much as practical for Dohlar is best for the Empire, and for that matter Siddarmark and Dohlar itself.

I imagine the minimal terms would be renunciation of cooperation with the Inquisition and surrendering Rahnyld and perhaps some senior ministers for that for Charisian justice; renunciation of the jihad; and toleration for Temple Loyalist churches, Reformist ones, a hypothetical national Dohlaran church, and the Church of Charis. (Your 1 and 7, plus details.) Dohlar out of the war, detached from the Temple, and with its specific grievances outside the customs of war with Charis settled, gets all Charis needs and is least likely to re-make an enemy of Dohlar, while being more than enough to keep it from being a friend or ally of Clyntahn's Temple. What Siddarmark demands is another issue, but hopefully and presumably it can be kept in the same spirit: mutual territorial recognition and resumed trade would help a lot.

Dohlar is certainly going to have to settle its own affairs in the wake of such an agreement, and re-organizing into a genuine constitutional monarchy (or even one in which the monarch is essentially a figurehead) would be one likely move. It'd save them from another Rahynyld, it would regularize the effective balance of power that his removal would leave, and it would look a lot better to their new friends (let's call them that, in the spirit of hope) Siddarmark and Charis. But that's for them to work out, not forced into it by treaty imposed by brutal victors but as a natural Dohlaran evolution in the context of recovering from a war and Safehold's changes.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by BobG   » Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:04 am

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Senior Chief wrote:
this last snippet reminds me of Napoleon's retreat from Moscow.... Miserable conditions, lack of proper clothing, food, weapons, and ammunition.

At least the army is not being harassed by Cossacks.... just my thoughts... thanks for the Snippet.

Or more importantly, destroyed by Typhus.

Chart of the size of Napoleon's forces as he invaded Russia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Minard.png

I wonder what a similar one for the CoGA forces in the South March would look like.

-- Bob G
SF & Fantasy: The only things better than Chocolate.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by Louis R   » Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:53 pm

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You're putting Ahlverez only about 60 miles off the Kharmych-Sandfish road. Given the state of his transport, that seems... unlikely. Those animals and vehicles have been worked a lot harder than that.

According to the chapter head, Malys is 50 miles west. I think you're confusing it with Zhanstyn, where his missing cavalry were supposed to set up a blocking position.

The AoS might have a better chance than you think. By the time whatever survivors make it can reach the Cheryk-Kharmych road, and my guess at that is another 15-20 days at best, Eastshare should have moved his forces past it, and will be using Thesmar and the Seridahn as his line of communication, so there may not be any real traffic still on the road when they cross it. Winter will be ending, so movement will get easier, as well. OTOH, I doubt that Ahlverez or Rychtyr left any garrisons in the north; Ft Sheldyn isn't there anymore, and the entire Dohlaran army was sent south to Thesmar to join the Desnairians after Alykberg. There are probably still plenty of Loyalists in the Cheraltyn area, although how much assistance they'll be, or want to be, remains to be seen. So the AoS might get out with nothing more than a grueling march on totally inadequate rations.

Assuming, of course, that Col. Tyrwait hasn't already suffered a mischief :)

McGuiness wrote:
Louis R wrote:What's your definition of 'best map we have available'? Kind of hard to know what you're saying if we don't know what you're looking at ;)

If it's the one Pokermind posted for us upthread, I'd guess from the text that he's probably a lot further toward the hilt of the sword - somewhere within 100 miles of the center of the line from Malyktyn to the top of the east upright on the H. That's a lot closer to what his thoughts indicate, IMV. He'd have been moving fairly quickly up to the point where he left the high road. He didn't start slogging until then, and would still have been in fairly good shape for the first 5-6 days after leaving the road. Progress is bad now, and getting worse quickly, so I'm guessing that he covered a good 2/3 of the distance he's marched in half the elapsed time, or even less. He'll be further out into the South March than the description we just saw would suggest, and probably further north than you seem to be thinking.
Using the map from LaMA, since there doesn't seem to be a link to a map from Pokermind in my browser, I'd peg Ahlverez's position somewhere in the area of the "T" in the "South March Lands." His next destination is Malys, which is 80 miles southwest of his current position, which would be 30-40 miles directly south of the "S" in "South March." From there he intends to move northwest towards Fort Sheldyn, which will require him to cross the Cheryk - Fort Tairys high road, passing slightly north of the center of the cross on the shield to get there. Evidently his lousy map must show some sort of road leading to Fort Sheldyn from Malys, which has five roads forking from it.

His army is in no shape to march 500 miles to Alyksberg, and we don't know if Fort Sheldyn or Syrk to the north of it on the high road are still in CoGA hands. Brahnselyk and Cheyvair were both captured by the Army of Cliff Peak, lead by Earl Highmount, and we don't know how far south the AoCP troops went before the majority of them pulled back to prepare for an assault on Kaitswyrth as soon as the weather allows.

LaMA is fairly clear that the Dohlarans were rushing supplies and troops forward to Evrytyn to hold that position, not to stop Hanth's advance. He's likely to dig in and shell the place until the Delthak arrives, and then things will get interesting. Hanth will either cut the canal behind Evrytyn, forcing a Dohlaran retreat, or the Delthak will blast through the defenses and force the Dohlarans to blow the locks and retreat. Either way, there may be no friendly faces anywhere nearby when (and if) Ahlverez finally reaches Fort Sheldyn. It's possible that the Dohlarans there pulled back, as did those at Syrk when Hanth moved up from the south when Brahnselyk fell to the north.

At best Ahlverez is aiming for a narrow corridor that's not garrisoned or picketed by allied troops. As he explained, “The way I see it, our best bet is to strike northwest from Malys, through Thyssyk, across the high road, and then through Fyrnyst and on up to Fort Sheldyn. Once we cross the high road, we break almost due north for Alyksberg.”

Although it isn't shown on the map in LaMA, the online map from MTaT shows a high road from Fort Sheldyn to Alyksberg. If the area northwest of the fort is still in CoGA hands, Ahlverez could possibly make his escape, especially if the fort is still held by CoGA forces and he can take its garrison and their weapons with him.

That's his plan, which surprisingly takes into account Hanth's offensive all the way to Evrytyn, which I thought began at roughly the same time as the Battle of Kyplynger. I'm surprised that Ahlverez knows about it.

The bad news for Ahlverez - well, more bad news... Duke Eastshare is undoubtedly moving tens of thousands of troops from Kharmych and will have the entire high road picketed all the way to Cheryk. Seijin Zhevons could drop by anytime to give him the location of the shattered remains of Ahlverez's army, which would force Ahlverez to surrender rather than face a pitched battle. Even if the Dohlaran scouts that are looking for him with the news of Hanth's offensive find him, he already seems to have that news, and their information of whether his intended escape route will work is going to be outdated by the time he receives it.

At this point DE is several times more mobile using the high road than Ahlverez, and his army is intact, well fed, and flush with victory. For the first time the ICA actually outnumbers the enemy force it faces, and it's not short of weapons or ammunition, but the Dohlarans are.

Once DE links up with Hanth, any corridor of retreat will close and Ahlverez will have no chance of escape. If that hasn't happened already, it will within the next couple of five days. That will vastly simplify DE's logistics as well, since he'll be supplied through Thesmar. :twisted:

Ahlverez is toast. If he makes it home he'll be executed as a scapegoat, so the best use of him as a character is as the senior Dohlaran POW, and later as part of a regency council with Thirsk after the EoC captures and executes King Rahnyld for turning Gwylym Manthyr and the rest of the Charisian POWs over to the Inquisition. I do realize that's an aberration from how the EoC has treated enemy leaders in the past, but Cayleb and Sharleyan have sworn that Rahnyld will pay personally for that action. Plus the EoC isn't trying to annex Dohlar.

Don't expect the EoC to even try to conquer Dohlar, or even cross the Dohlar/Siddarmark border except to conduct small raids. Dohlar has 97 million people vs. 72 million for the entire EoC. It's also the most technologically advanced of the mainland realms. The EoC simply doesn't have the troops to garrison it, couldn't possibly hold on to it, and it doesn't need to invade it to win the war.

Unlike most of the other mainland realms, Dohlar does have the option to surrender, since its geography makes that possible. It's surrounded on the three sides by the Gulf of Dohlar, and is bordered on the east by Siddarmark (which is out for blood) and the Grand Duchy of Silkiah, which is neutral and located across the apparently impenetrable Salthar mountains. In other words, Dohlar can be effectively separated from CoGA control and invasion by any CoGA forces. The EoC will soon have complete control of the Gulf of Dohlar, and no CoGA army is going to be able to get past Hanth and DE on the Dohlaran border with Siddarmark to threaten internal Dohlaran politics.

Desnair and South Harchong will also be out of the war in the next few months, once the Haarahld VIIs arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar. Those countries won't surrender, but they won't contribute much to the war effort either. Desnair's land route through Silkiah is cut off, and its days of building commerce raiders are coming to a messy end due to Merlin's "network of spies." South Harchong will be completely cut off from the war once the ICN controls the entire Gulf of Dohlar.

Keep running, Sir Ahlverez. Hanth and Duke Eastshare are waiting to save you and your troops from the wrath of the Inquisition! ;)
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by tootall   » Tue Mar 17, 2015 4:42 pm

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(Pretty sad when one quotes oneself) ANYway,
tootall wrote:
Well, I have to admit how wrong I was about the condition of Ahlverez's troops.
I recall that he took his supply train with him when he began his retreat and that he had several "intact" units left from the disaster. I assumed that he still had a "force in being". Guess not.

So I was glancing thru LaMA and came on this passage:
"...less than 8000 stragglers from Earl Hennet's cavalry-plus, of course, the gallant earl and his bodyguard- had escaped to the Army of Glacierheart's protection."

Given the woeful state of Ahlverez's force, I can't believe the earl's men were in much better condition-supply-wise. And how dismal is their impact on the morale our dear Bishop Kaitswyrth's command? That command that already got their tails kicked by Eastshare. That command that must now know that Eastshare just kicked some more tail- this time to the tune of: Let's destroy an army of a quarter of a million men.
So Hennet's cavalry came in ill supplied, and as unassailable evidence of another terrible defeat. It probably would have been better for the morale of Kaitswyrth's troops if they'd not escaped at all. At least the defeat could have been kept secret from the rank and file.

To quote McGuiness again- Things are "bleek."
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by saber964   » Tue Mar 17, 2015 5:51 pm

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tootall wrote:(Pretty sad when one quotes oneself) ANYway,
tootall wrote:
Well, I have to admit how wrong I was about the condition of Ahlverez's troops.
I recall that he took his supply train with him when he began his retreat and that he had several "intact" units left from the disaster. I assumed that he still had a "force in being". Guess not.

So I was glancing thru LaMA and came on this passage:
"...less than 8000 stragglers from Earl Hennet's cavalry-plus, of course, the gallant earl and his bodyguard- had escaped to the Army of Glacierheart's protection."

Given the woeful state of Ahlverez's force, I can't believe the earl's men were in much better condition-supply-wise. And how dismal is their impact on the morale our dear Bishop Kaitswyrth's command? That command that already got their tails kicked by Eastshare. That command that must now know that Eastshare just kicked some more tail- this time to the tune of: Let's destroy an army of a quarter of a million men.
So Hennet's cavalry came in ill supplied, and as unassailable evidence of another terrible defeat. It probably would have been better for the morale of Kaitswyrth's troops if they'd not escaped at all. At least the defeat could have been kept secret from the rank and file.

To quote McGuiness again- Things are "bleek."


Actually no. IIRC Earl Hennet had a bodyguard of better fed solders and horses when he took off for the AoGH. Too quote an old TV show Hennet ''as some 'Splanin to do.'
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by Louis R   » Tue Mar 17, 2015 6:04 pm

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Hennet's bodyguard isn't likely to have been anything like 8000 strong. 80 is more like it.

The Desnairian cavalry was being much better treated than the infantry - after all, they're simply better. Nonetheless, IIRC, some 30% had already lost their horses, so the ones who made it up to Aivahnstyn started out in better than average condition, but are still going to be in pretty rough shape.

saber964 wrote:
tootall wrote:(Pretty sad when one quotes oneself) ANYway,
tootall wrote:
Well, I have to admit how wrong I was about the condition of Ahlverez's troops.
I recall that he took his supply train with him when he began his retreat and that he had several "intact" units left from the disaster. I assumed that he still had a "force in being". Guess not.

So I was glancing thru LaMA and came on this passage:
"...less than 8000 stragglers from Earl Hennet's cavalry-plus, of course, the gallant earl and his bodyguard- had escaped to the Army of Glacierheart's protection."

Given the woeful state of Ahlverez's force, I can't believe the earl's men were in much better condition-supply-wise. And how dismal is their impact on the morale our dear Bishop Kaitswyrth's command? That command that already got their tails kicked by Eastshare. That command that must now know that Eastshare just kicked some more tail- this time to the tune of: Let's destroy an army of a quarter of a million men.
So Hennet's cavalry came in ill supplied, and as unassailable evidence of another terrible defeat. It probably would have been better for the morale of Kaitswyrth's troops if they'd not escaped at all. At least the defeat could have been kept secret from the rank and file.

To quote McGuiness again- Things are "bleek."


Actually no. IIRC Earl Hennet had a bodyguard of better fed solders and horses when he took off for the AoGH. Too quote an old TV show Hennet ''as some 'Splanin to do.'
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by tootall   » Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:33 pm

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[quote="Louis R"]Hennet's bodyguard isn't likely to have been anything like 8000 strong. 80 is more like it.

The Desnairian cavalry was being much better treated than the infantry - after all, they're simply better. Nonetheless, IIRC, some 30% had already lost their horses, so the ones who made it up to Aivahnstyn started out in better than average condition, but are still going to be in pretty rough shape.



Hennet "and friends" were in good condition when they started. The other troops were in better shape than the infantry- but were still not good. It's a long way to Aivahnstyn. That's why I quoted "me" about Ahlverez. If his men are in bad shape, the Desniarians with their woeful supply situation are a lot worse. To repeat: It's a long way to Aivahnstyn.
If I recall, Kaithswyrth's troops are well supplied. Seeing the staggering straggling condition of the Desnairian cavalry will be a shock.

And yes, the earl has some "splainin to do".

And yes:
"It's all Ahlverez's fault!!!"
"I only rode all this way so that you'd know about that Dohlarian traitor!!"
"I wanted to stay and fight, but my duty required that I report the truth in person!!"
etc. etc. etc.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by Peter2   » Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:56 pm

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tootall wrote:
Louis R wrote:Hennet's bodyguard isn't likely to have been anything like 8000 strong. 80 is more like it.

The Desnairian cavalry was being much better treated than the infantry - after all, they're simply better. Nonetheless, IIRC, some 30% had already lost their horses, so the ones who made it up to Aivahnstyn started out in better than average condition, but are still going to be in pretty rough shape.



Hennet "and friends" were in good condition when they started. The other troops were in better shape than the infantry- but were still not good. It's a long way to Aivahnstyn. That's why I quoted "me" about Ahlverez. If his men are in bad shape, the Desniarians with their woeful supply situation are a lot worse. To repeat: It's a long way to Aivahnstyn.
If I recall, Kaithswyrth's troops are well supplied. Seeing the staggering straggling condition of the Desnairian cavalry will be a shock.

And yes, the earl has some "splainin to do".

And yes:
"It's all Ahlverez's fault!!!"
"I only rode all this way so that you'd know about that Dohlarian traitor!!"
"I wanted to stay and fight, but my duty required that I report the truth in person!!"
etc. etc. etc.


In addition, I think we can rely on Duke Harless's bag-carrier, the "youthful Baron of Fyrnach", to do his level best to traduce Ahlverez, and drive him into Queer Street viz-a-viz the Inquisition. If he's survived, that is. :evil:
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20
Post by n7axw   » Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:00 pm

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It has already been noted that the Earl and his bodyguard were in better shape. I agree that 80 is a more likely figure than 8000. The remainder of the 8000 who showed up were stragglers, some a part of oerganized units, some not.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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