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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20 | |
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by PeterZ » Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:26 am | |
PeterZ
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What happens if Ahlvarez is captured with his men and kept with all the other POWs captured in the Kyplinger? I suspect that Ahvarez will turn that group into a coherent unit. Fast forward to the destruction of Dohlar's coastal cities by the KH VIIs and the shredding of Dohlar's armed forces. Dohlar can turn into Somalia as the petty aristos fight for supremacy or an effective leader turns up. Thirsk is either dead or does not have enough pull with the army to gather a sufficient force to consolidate power. How much is Ahlvarez and his coherent force worth then? Quite a lot if the goal is to make Dohlar stable.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20 | |
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by JeffEngel » Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:52 am | |
JeffEngel
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Thanks. I wouldn't put too much weight on it not having been mentioned though: given that the Federation would have frowned on it, it would not have been a regular practice then, but what the Federation would have frowned on isn't governing what Merlin, Nimue et al do on Safehold. If Nimue in heels may do - if poor lighting and more conventional disguise techniques can full in the rest - it could still work out. The reconfiguration done for Merlin especially and Nimue wasn't to reach any disguise goal but mostly just to tweak Nimue Alban's appearance enough to be a man or be a plausible female height for Safehold, so those two at least aren't establishing the limits of reconfigurations. Even Merlin's other identities aren't for specific appearances so much as looking not just like Merlin.
That one is far and away the top of my list of most likely possibilities too; I'm just not as tight in my list of flat-out not-going-to-happen ones.
Zhan is spoken for, engaged to Princess Marhya of Emerald. Zhanayt is not; neither are two of four children of the House of Baytz, which is currently among the most high-ranking in the Empire. (Chisholm and Corisande are thin for surviving royalty; I don't recall about Tarot but it's not in the same prestige league.) I do agree with others that a hands-off approach as much as practical for Dohlar is best for the Empire, and for that matter Siddarmark and Dohlar itself. I imagine the minimal terms would be renunciation of cooperation with the Inquisition and surrendering Rahnyld and perhaps some senior ministers for that for Charisian justice; renunciation of the jihad; and toleration for Temple Loyalist churches, Reformist ones, a hypothetical national Dohlaran church, and the Church of Charis. (Your 1 and 7, plus details.) Dohlar out of the war, detached from the Temple, and with its specific grievances outside the customs of war with Charis settled, gets all Charis needs and is least likely to re-make an enemy of Dohlar, while being more than enough to keep it from being a friend or ally of Clyntahn's Temple. What Siddarmark demands is another issue, but hopefully and presumably it can be kept in the same spirit: mutual territorial recognition and resumed trade would help a lot. Dohlar is certainly going to have to settle its own affairs in the wake of such an agreement, and re-organizing into a genuine constitutional monarchy (or even one in which the monarch is essentially a figurehead) would be one likely move. It'd save them from another Rahynyld, it would regularize the effective balance of power that his removal would leave, and it would look a lot better to their new friends (let's call them that, in the spirit of hope) Siddarmark and Charis. But that's for them to work out, not forced into it by treaty imposed by brutal victors but as a natural Dohlaran evolution in the context of recovering from a war and Safehold's changes. |
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20 | |
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by BobG » Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:04 am | |
BobG
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Senior Chief wrote:
Or more importantly, destroyed by Typhus. Chart of the size of Napoleon's forces as he invaded Russia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Minard.png I wonder what a similar one for the CoGA forces in the South March would look like. -- Bob G SF & Fantasy: The only things better than Chocolate.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20 | |
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by Louis R » Tue Mar 17, 2015 2:53 pm | |
Louis R
Posts: 1298
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You're putting Ahlverez only about 60 miles off the Kharmych-Sandfish road. Given the state of his transport, that seems... unlikely. Those animals and vehicles have been worked a lot harder than that.
According to the chapter head, Malys is 50 miles west. I think you're confusing it with Zhanstyn, where his missing cavalry were supposed to set up a blocking position. The AoS might have a better chance than you think. By the time whatever survivors make it can reach the Cheryk-Kharmych road, and my guess at that is another 15-20 days at best, Eastshare should have moved his forces past it, and will be using Thesmar and the Seridahn as his line of communication, so there may not be any real traffic still on the road when they cross it. Winter will be ending, so movement will get easier, as well. OTOH, I doubt that Ahlverez or Rychtyr left any garrisons in the north; Ft Sheldyn isn't there anymore, and the entire Dohlaran army was sent south to Thesmar to join the Desnairians after Alykberg. There are probably still plenty of Loyalists in the Cheraltyn area, although how much assistance they'll be, or want to be, remains to be seen. So the AoS might get out with nothing more than a grueling march on totally inadequate rations. Assuming, of course, that Col. Tyrwait hasn't already suffered a mischief
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20 | |
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by tootall » Tue Mar 17, 2015 4:42 pm | |
tootall
Posts: 349
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(Pretty sad when one quotes oneself) ANYway,
tootall wrote: Well, I have to admit how wrong I was about the condition of Ahlverez's troops. I recall that he took his supply train with him when he began his retreat and that he had several "intact" units left from the disaster. I assumed that he still had a "force in being". Guess not. So I was glancing thru LaMA and came on this passage: "...less than 8000 stragglers from Earl Hennet's cavalry-plus, of course, the gallant earl and his bodyguard- had escaped to the Army of Glacierheart's protection." Given the woeful state of Ahlverez's force, I can't believe the earl's men were in much better condition-supply-wise. And how dismal is their impact on the morale our dear Bishop Kaitswyrth's command? That command that already got their tails kicked by Eastshare. That command that must now know that Eastshare just kicked some more tail- this time to the tune of: Let's destroy an army of a quarter of a million men. So Hennet's cavalry came in ill supplied, and as unassailable evidence of another terrible defeat. It probably would have been better for the morale of Kaitswyrth's troops if they'd not escaped at all. At least the defeat could have been kept secret from the rank and file. To quote McGuiness again- Things are "bleek." |
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20 | |
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by saber964 » Tue Mar 17, 2015 5:51 pm | |
saber964
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Actually no. IIRC Earl Hennet had a bodyguard of better fed solders and horses when he took off for the AoGH. Too quote an old TV show Hennet ''as some 'Splanin to do.' |
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20 | |
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by Louis R » Tue Mar 17, 2015 6:04 pm | |
Louis R
Posts: 1298
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Hennet's bodyguard isn't likely to have been anything like 8000 strong. 80 is more like it.
The Desnairian cavalry was being much better treated than the infantry - after all, they're simply better. Nonetheless, IIRC, some 30% had already lost their horses, so the ones who made it up to Aivahnstyn started out in better than average condition, but are still going to be in pretty rough shape.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20 | |
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by tootall » Tue Mar 17, 2015 7:33 pm | |
tootall
Posts: 349
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[quote="Louis R"]Hennet's bodyguard isn't likely to have been anything like 8000 strong. 80 is more like it.
The Desnairian cavalry was being much better treated than the infantry - after all, they're simply better. Nonetheless, IIRC, some 30% had already lost their horses, so the ones who made it up to Aivahnstyn started out in better than average condition, but are still going to be in pretty rough shape. Hennet "and friends" were in good condition when they started. The other troops were in better shape than the infantry- but were still not good. It's a long way to Aivahnstyn. That's why I quoted "me" about Ahlverez. If his men are in bad shape, the Desniarians with their woeful supply situation are a lot worse. To repeat: It's a long way to Aivahnstyn. If I recall, Kaithswyrth's troops are well supplied. Seeing the staggering straggling condition of the Desnairian cavalry will be a shock. And yes, the earl has some "splainin to do". And yes: "It's all Ahlverez's fault!!!" "I only rode all this way so that you'd know about that Dohlarian traitor!!" "I wanted to stay and fight, but my duty required that I report the truth in person!!" etc. etc. etc. |
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20 | |
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by Peter2 » Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:56 pm | |
Peter2
Posts: 371
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In addition, I think we can rely on Duke Harless's bag-carrier, the "youthful Baron of Fyrnach", to do his level best to traduce Ahlverez, and drive him into Queer Street viz-a-viz the Inquisition. If he's survived, that is. |
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #20 | |
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by n7axw » Tue Mar 17, 2015 10:00 pm | |
n7axw
Posts: 5997
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It has already been noted that the Earl and his bodyguard were in better shape. I agree that 80 is a more likely figure than 8000. The remainder of the 8000 who showed up were stragglers, some a part of oerganized units, some not.
Don When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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