(SPOILERS) From David re: a certain ship's fate

I may have been the first to post the question "Why didn't Merlin/Nimue/Anybody in the inner circle detonate a SNARC in the Thunderer's magazine when it became clear that the fuses hadn't been lit and the Dohlarans had swarmed aboard?" Obviously RFC sees some value in the RDN having an ICN ironclad galleon in its possession.

Thirsk was interrupted in is narration just before he was shot, but from the context I expected him to finish the sentence saying something like "we currently have no way to duplicate the heretic's armor on our own ships." That's gotta be a sobering thought for the CoGA.

Yes, they'll learn how to duplicate the gun's carriages, but they really can't duplicate the ammo very efficiently. Every shell would have to be hand-made.

We're really making too much of a fuss about this, since the KHs will arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar by next spring, and as Howsmyn mused as he looked at them under construction, a single one of them could destroy every ship in existence. The only effective navy other than the ICN is the RDN, which just took huge losses against a single ironclad that to be truthful, was merely a prototype to prove the concept of armoring ships against shells, and the Thunderer doesn't pack the newest guns or the smokeless powder rounds that will soon be available.

So should the RDN make its repairs, add the Thunderer to its fleet, and sail bravely off to drive the pesky Charisians off of Claw Island and out of the Gulf, they're going to find out rather abruptly that their exciting new toy can be destroyed by a few shots from its sister ships and especially by its big brother - a big brother that doesn't care if the wind is blowing in the direction it wants to go, or even if there's any wind at all! Plus I expect a few city ironclads will arrive as well, and RFC is on the record saying any one of them could destroy the entire RDN, and presumably all the coastal fortifications in existence. The screw galley's 150 lb. shells wouldn't do much to a city ironclad either - or the Haarahld's, whose shells could shatter them from miles away.

So the "defeat" of the ICN in HFQ was merely the loss of a bunch of obsolete ships, including the ironclads. It was the loss of the sailors that hurt the most, and I'm really glad that we didn't have a repeat of the POWs undergoing a ghastly trip to Zion via land to be tortured to death.

Kudos for bringing Yairley into the inner circle, and I very much enjoyed the battle and the rescue, since I wasn't holding out much hope that they'd get the POWs back alive. His struggle with the Big Reveal while clinging to his duty showed that accepting the truth isn't always going to be easy even for those who have rubbed shoulders with members of the inner circle, especially for those whose belief defines who they are, like DE. (So they won't even try with him, he'll just get lots of visits from seijins.)

While I've posted my expectations that Nimue/Merlin would rescue Thirsk's family for years, I was surprised that the CoGA grabbed them this soon and sent them by ship. That said, the battle with two shotgun-wielding seijins was enjoyable, although using the skimmer to drop a 500 lb. bomb and fire machine guns was overkill when blowing up the CoGA ship to leave no witnesses. A SNARC blowing up in the ship's magazine would have done the job without running the chance that anyone would see the skimmer from afar. So I'm guessing that using the skimmer during rescue was to tip us off that Merlin is thinking of how to use it given the limitations imposed by the OBS, and to show us that it has those capabilities to use in the future...

Having the disappearance of Thirsk's family blamed on the CoGA was a clever twist that I didn't anticipate, since it solved the problem of keeping Thirsk in command after his family disappeared. I expect that his conversation with Merlin will cover two basic points: his family is safe in Charisian hands, and to preserve the lives of his sailors, he needs to prepare his captains to strike their colors quickly should they encounter something they can't hope to defeat. I highly doubt that Merlin will ask him to defect, and since the RDN is doomed by next summer, Merlin would vastly prefer to avoid a massive bloodbath.

Thirsk will wonder if he's being blackmailed of course, but that's not Cayleb and Sharley's style and Dohlar is heading in the direction of becoming a failed state. Getting them out of the war, like Desnair has done, would go a long ways to gutting the Jihad. Thirsk can be influential in bringing that about, and in taking part in the government that results after Dohlar declares neutrality or sues for terms. King Ronnie will abdicate, so expect a regency. We all think Thirsk and Ahlverez may serve on it, although RFC will probably throw another curveball at us. Clyntahn could summon Thirsk to Zion for the audacity of encouraging the RDN to surrender without being totally blown to smithereens and dying for a doomed cause. (Although I doubt the RDN would allow the Inquisition to enforce any such order.)

So in retrospect, I fell into the same mindset as many who have posted in this thread that the loss of the two ironclads seemed a bit contrived - but I felt that way mostly because I overestimated their importance. Their replacements are en route, and a few KHs will soon follow. The "loss" in which the Thunderer gutted the western fleet of the RDN and was captured isn't going to matter in the long run - or in a few months!

McGuinness I'm surprised that

a) you think Thirsk has anything like the political clout with the rest of the aristocracy in Dohlar to have a snowball's chance of getting on the Regency council. We like him, them not so much.

b) you are one of the many ignoring the plain textev that Clyntahn has already given the order for Thirsk to be brought to Zion for the punishment next Summer (once the unbiased enquiry now being run by Dohlar's intendant finds him culpable for letting the prisoners escape) And that was before Clyntahn lost the Leverage Thirsk's family gave him

David Weber wrote:There’ll be time enough to settle with these useless excuses for naval officers after we’ve taken the field next spring and kicked the heretics’ arses on land for a change. In fact, I want you to spend some of that winter quietly putting the pieces in place for Thirsk to accompany his loyal subordinates to Zion next summer. I’ve got a ledger entry or two to settle with him, too.”

Weber, David (2015-10-13). Hell's Foundations Quiver (Safehold) (p. 618). Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition.

Duckk wrote:That is to say, why not blow up Dreadnought with a SNARC:

***

Short version: there was no reason to do so.

The real killer was the destruction of the ICN's conventional galleons (well, that and the manpower losses and moral damage) and the reduction in operational reach that entailed.

Sarmouth and Hektor were most devastated by the casualties, if you'll recall, and, secondarily, by the loss of platforms capable of standing up to conventional Dohlaran galleons. The Inner Circle knew it would be weeks (at the very least) before the RDN could put her back into action, and they also knew that it would be many months before they could begin to capitalize on any tech they might reverse engineer from her. She was armed with muzzle loaders, so there was no new tech available to them there, and there was no way they could duplicate Howsmyn's superior armor plate from their existing industrial plant. Aside from that, there really wasn't anything involved in her construction that Thirsk and his guys hadn't already pretty much figured out, at least in theory/general terms. The real question was whether or not they could duplicate what they already knew (in those general terms) the Charisians were doing, and simply examining the ship wouldn't tell them how to do that.

Sarmouth's arrival provided enough conventional platforms to reestablish a Charisian presence (especially in light of Dohlaran losses in the same battle) even in the eastern half of the Gulf, as he proceeded to demonstrate. In addition, Domnyk's redeployment plan would more than offset any tactical advantage the RDN might get out of her in the short term. And once the blue water ironclads get there, with BL rifled guns and improved AP ammo, Dreadnought is toast in any battle she might fight

In short, while they all hated losing her and --especially!! -- all the men lost with her, her possession by the RDN represented only a minor (and very transitory), purely tactical advantage to the enemy. Oh, they'll learn a few things they can put to use relatively soon, but not enough to materially affect the combat balance of the two navies. And, in the long term, there are potentially enormous strategic advantages in letting Dohlar keep her . . . for much the same reasons the King Harahlds were designed to have so much overkill. No thinking RDN officer can possibly inspect that ship without realizing how utterly she outclasses anything they have or could conceivably expect to build/duplicate. The more effort they waste trying to match her the better, from the EOC's perspective. Even more to the point, the lesson of tactical and strategic impotence will be more than sufficiently pointed when the same ironclads who paid a visit to Desnair get to Dohlaran waters and demonstrate their huge superiority to the ship those officers already know they can't possibly duplicate.

In other words, once the milk was spilled and she'd already been lost, there were precious few additional downsides and quite a few important (if subtle) upsides to letting them keep her. Of course, the inner circle isn't really in a position to share the logic behind those upsides with Zhan Q. Publyk.

Upsides:
1: Killing a lot of sailors who are fighting for the other team
2: Denying the enemy a victory
3: Doesn't matter how much "better" Dreadnought is than any of their ships, they beat it. That doesn't demoralize them, that lets them "know" that God really is on their side, and will help them win even when Shan Wei has given the other side better tech..

Not the message you want the other side to get.

gamarus wrote:

Randomiser wrote:Actually, Merlin seems to be more concerned about the technology transfer impact of the loss of the cannon and their carriages than of the armour
'Dynnys Zhwaigair was about to have six-inch rifled guns on Mahndrayan carriages to examine. God only knew where that was likely to lead!' HFQ p492 Kindle edition

Which doesn't seem to have been commented on. I have lost track. Can anyone remind me what a Mandrayn Carriage is and whether the Temple Boys are likely to be able to reproduce it?

The Mandrayn carriage is what we would call a Marsilly carriages. Wikipedia doesn't have a page dedicated to this kind of carriage, but you can see one somewhat down on this page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dahlgren_gun

In essence: only two gun trucks in the front, it slides on the rear, thus greater friction for stopping heavier cannons. For moving it around, a single wheeled lever under the rear centre, meaning you can train (alter the angle of) the gun much easier. And finally elevating screws for elevation control.

All in all a lighter carriage that is easier and thus faster to aim than the normal carriage. And it's very easy to copy for the Temple Boys.

Thanks. At least it's not one of the hydraulic ones that brings the gun back into battery at the same position as before.

GregD wrote:

Duckk wrote:That is to say, why not blow up Dreadnought with a SNARC:

***

Short version: there was no reason to do so.

The real killer was the destruction of the ICN's conventional galleons (well, that and the manpower losses and moral damage) and the reduction in operational reach that entailed.

Sarmouth and Hektor were most devastated by the casualties, if you'll recall, and, secondarily, by the loss of platforms capable of standing up to conventional Dohlaran galleons. The Inner Circle knew it would be weeks (at the very least) before the RDN could put her back into action, and they also knew that it would be many months before they could begin to capitalize on any tech they might reverse engineer from her. She was armed with muzzle loaders, so there was no new tech available to them there, and there was no way they could duplicate Howsmyn's superior armor plate from their existing industrial plant. Aside from that, there really wasn't anything involved in her construction that Thirsk and his guys hadn't already pretty much figured out, at least in theory/general terms. The real question was whether or not they could duplicate what they already knew (in those general terms) the Charisians were doing, and simply examining the ship wouldn't tell them how to do that.

Sarmouth's arrival provided enough conventional platforms to reestablish a Charisian presence (especially in light of Dohlaran losses in the same battle) even in the eastern half of the Gulf, as he proceeded to demonstrate. In addition, Domnyk's redeployment plan would more than offset any tactical advantage the RDN might get out of her in the short term. And once the blue water ironclads get there, with BL rifled guns and improved AP ammo, Dreadnought is toast in any battle she might fight

In short, while they all hated losing her and --especially!! -- all the men lost with her, her possession by the RDN represented only a minor (and very transitory), purely tactical advantage to the enemy. Oh, they'll learn a few things they can put to use relatively soon, but not enough to materially affect the combat balance of the two navies. And, in the long term, there are potentially enormous strategic advantages in letting Dohlar keep her . . . for much the same reasons the King Harahlds were designed to have so much overkill. No thinking RDN officer can possibly inspect that ship without realizing how utterly she outclasses anything they have or could conceivably expect to build/duplicate. The more effort they waste trying to match her the better, from the EOC's perspective. Even more to the point, the lesson of tactical and strategic impotence will be more than sufficiently pointed when the same ironclads who paid a visit to Desnair get to Dohlaran waters and demonstrate their huge superiority to the ship those officers already know they can't possibly duplicate.

In other words, once the milk was spilled and she'd already been lost, there were precious few additional downsides and quite a few important (if subtle) upsides to letting them keep her. Of course, the inner circle isn't really in a position to share the logic behind those upsides with Zhan Q. Publyk.

Upsides:
1: Killing a lot of sailors who are fighting for the other team
2: Denying the enemy a victory
3: Doesn't matter how much "better" Dreadnought is than any of their ships, they beat it. That doesn't demoralize them, that lets them "know" that God really is on their side, and will help them win even when Shan Wei has given the other side better tech..

Not the message you want the other side to get.

Disagree totally with all but your first point for reasons I've laid out elsewhere. If you can't accept my analysis, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

By the way, would Charis hedl some inquiry of all this mess? They suffered a really not-good-looking naval defeat, lost two valuable ships - one of them captured (and i doubt that the charisian commoners would easily assept "they couldn't reproduce it, honsetly!" as an full explanation), and a lot of charisian sailors eventually were tanek by the Inquisition. And the basical responsibility is held by the navy wunderwaffe chase.

There must be at least some charisian naval officers with enough logic to deduce: "all this mess would never happened if we have some steamers here... And why we haven't?". And they started to demand explanation and investigations for sure.

Dilandu wrote:By the way, would Charis hedl some inquiry of all this mess? They suffered a really not-good-looking naval defeat, lost two valuable ships - one of them captured (and i doubt that the charisian commoners would easily assept "they couldn't reproduce it, honsetly!" as an full explanation), and a lot of charisian sailors eventually were tanek by the Inquisition. And the basical responsibility is held by the navy wunderwaffe chase.

There must be at least some charisian naval officers with enough logic to deduce: "all this mess would never happened if we have some steamers here... And why we haven't?". And they started to demand explanation and investigations for sure.

Unless the navy found some obvious malfeasance on the part of he parties involved, probably not. We know that Ahbaht was commended, not censored by someone in a position to watch the whole thing! Somebody could wonder about the absence of steamers, But we really already know, that the fire on the Delthak complex delayed the Haarahds and that the Cities have been busy dealing with the privateer issue and are off the coast of Desnair, although we have a hint that they might be deployed to the Gulf in the near term future.

At this point there seems to be a very high level of trust amongst officers in the military and in the civilian sector toward the military. An inquiry could be a good thing to get the facts aired. But I'm not expecting any scapegoating.

Don

n7axw wrote:
Unless the navy found some obvious malfeasance on the part of he parties involved, probably not. We know that Ahbaht was commended, not censored by someone in a position to watch the whole thing!

Don

Well, on Earth, Britain, France and other major naval power held inquiry pretty often, if something went screwed. In this case, they clearly have the situation with shipbuilding program.

Somebody could wonder about the absence of steamers, But we really already know, that the fire on the Delthak complex delayed the Haarahds and that the Cities have been busy dealing with the privateer issue and are off the coast of Desnair, although we have a hint that they might be deployed to the Gulf in the near term future.

The question would be "why we are chasing the wunderwaffe instead of building the large numbers of wooden steamships that we could already have"?

P.S. By the way, as i recall, they have only problems with 10-inch guns for KH's. They could just commission them in time with additional 8-inch guns placed instead of waiting for 10-inch guns.

Basically, this is another demonstration that wunderwaffe chase is always the bad idea. When you started to pouring a large number of resources in some sort of superweapon that "would be so cool, that it would scare every enemy" - instead of producing the more standard weapons - it usually went wrong. The Charisians learn this a hard way...

Dilandu wrote:

n7axw wrote:
Unless the navy found some obvious malfeasance on the part of he parties involved, probably not. We know that Ahbaht was commended, not censored by someone in a position to watch the whole thing!

Don

Well, on Earth, Britain, France and other major naval power held inquiry pretty often, if something went screwed. In this case, they clearly have the situation with shipbuilding program.

Somebody could wonder about the absence of steamers, But we really already know, that the fire on the Delthak complex delayed the Haarahds and that the Cities have been busy dealing with the privateer issue and are off the coast of Desnair, although we have a hint that they might be deployed to the Gulf in the near term future.

The question would be "why we are chasing the wunderwaffe instead of building the large numbers of wooden steamships that we could already have"?

P.S. By the way, as i recall, they have only problems with 10-inch guns for KH's. They could just commission them in time with additional 8-inch guns placed instead of waiting for 10-inch guns.

Basically, this is another demonstration that wunderwaffe chase is always the bad idea. When you started to pouring a large number of resources in some sort of superweapon that "would be so cool, that it would scare every enemy" - instead of producing the more standard weapons - it usually went wrong. The Charisians learn this a hard way...

We've been over this before, Dilandu. Your opinion of the shipbuilding program is your opinion and the author made a different choice, right or wrong, and frankly, it's his story to tell. Since we do have the Haarahlds coming, I'm kind of interested to see where he takes that part of the story. After all, neither of us are going to have to pay taxes to build the things. So we just as well enjoy the ride!

Don

Randomiser wrote:McGuinness I'm surprised that

a) you think Thirsk has anything like the political clout with the rest of the aristocracy in Dohlar to have a snowball's chance of getting on the Regency council. We like him, them not so much.

b) you are one of the many ignoring the plain textev that Clyntahn has already given the order for Thirsk to be brought to Zion for the punishment next Summer (once the unbiased enquiry now being run by Dohlar's intendant finds him culpable for letting the prisoners escape) And that was before Clyntahn lost the Leverage Thirsk's family gave him

David Weber wrote:There’ll be time enough to settle with these useless excuses for naval officers after we’ve taken the field next spring and kicked the heretics’ arses on land for a change. In fact, I want you to spend some of that winter quietly putting the pieces in place for Thirsk to accompany his loyal subordinates to Zion next summer. I’ve got a ledger entry or two to settle with him, too.”

Weber, David (2015-10-13). Hell's Foundations Quiver (Safehold) (p. 618). Tom Doherty Associates. Kindle Edition.

I'll admit that Thirsk has some powerful enemies, but his fleet is the only part of the NoG that ever had a victory over the Charisians, and now they've done it twice. His star is ascending, and thus his political capital is also increasing. Thorast would have a very hard time getting rid of Thirsk now, especially with his subordinate confessing all as a "Charisian spy" and then shooting Thirsk. He's Dohlar's naval darling, and when the allies come crashing through the Gulf next spring with city class ironclads and the King Haarahlds at the same time the Dohlaran army retreats inside its own borders, it's quite likely that King Ronald will abdicate and the country will face both severe military and political crises at the same time.

A regency council appears to be a done deal - as does Dohlar suing for terms and declaring neutrality in the Jihad.

Once that happens, nobody is going to be hauling Thirsk and his surviving subordinates (after the NoG is shattered by the ironclads and the KHs) to Zion so Clyntahn can balance his books. Clyntahn's military power in Dohlar will be over, just as it is now in Desnair. The navy simply will not hand Thirsk over to Clyntahn and the Inquisition, especially over trumped up charges regarding the destruction of the task force sent to guard the Charisian POWs, since the Inquisition signed off on it!

We have examples now where surrendering CoGA troops realize their inquisitors are going to be executed as a result, and either don't care or feel bad for them - but the troops go ahead and surrender anyway. They don't keep fighting to save the lives of inquisitors. Fear of the Inquisition is eroding quickly among the troops. Clyntahn's ability to maneuver the military is slipping badly. He couldn't even get the MHoG to move forward and attack Five Forks during the summer campaign season - the Harchongese upon whom he depends basically told him to stick it and stayed put in Tarikah gathering supplies for next year. Bad news for them, next year BGV will have a full supply of ammo for the M96s, and possibly bleeding edge smokeless powder shells for his artillery, while the Siddarmarkans with him will have traded in their muzzle loaders for breech loading rifles. Toss in the impending bankruptcy of the CoGA, and the Jihad is on its last legs.

So a) Thirsk's political star in Dohlar is ascending at the same time that his political opponents are going to be in hot water, and he may emerge as a heroic survivor even when the RDA is decimated and surrenders next year. He may or may not end up on the regency council that appears to be inevitable, even though many of us readers feel it would be the best use of his talents and enable him to fulfill his oaths to his king, since he could help mold Ronald's son into a king who would be worthy of his service, as hinted at in OAR.

b) Clyntahn is going to find it difficult to get his hands on Thirsk, and demanding that he and his heroic subordinates of the NoG be sent to Zion to be put through the Punishment is the best thing he could do to encourage Dohlar to declare neutrality in the Jihad. So let him go ahead and try it, his days of being God on Safehold are over.