[HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?

The way I see it is that the Desnarian Empire has been isolated and cut off from the CoGA and has had it industry and shipping smashed to pieces by Charis via the new class river boat iron clad ships. They are unable to bring enough industry into action to build anything to help out the jihad.

A similar isolation will need to happen with Dohlar. That can be done during the winter months when Charis brings the King-Harold-VII class ships into the Gulf of Dohlar and smashes everything, starting with the city of Gorath and what ever is left of the Dohlar and Harchong navy. That will isolate them by sea. then Hanth needs to complete the encirclement on land.

At that point Thirsk and Alveres(?) takes over the navy and army and cast out the CoGA. At that point Dohlar is free to choose it's own path forward. However, the choice to go neutral doesn't really exist so they would join with Charis.

The King-Harold-VII class ships would proceed to take out all cities and industries in the Shewi Bay and the Bay of Alexov. This will take the South Harchong Empire and the Kingdom of Sodar out of the war.

This would allow Charis and it's allies to harass/attack the Harchong Empire in it's west ant the Temple Lands from the south through Malansath. Which ought to force the panicked redeployment of forces of those two countries. They would not be able to concentrate them in the west of the Siddarmark Republic.

Joyful chaos will flourish everywhere in the lands remaining to the CoGA. Which should make it much easier for Charis and it's allies to defeat the armies of the CoGA.

Besides, in a year or so the CoGA will run out of money and they'll have to quit the war anyway.

CJK wrote:Oh Dohlar will be leaving the jihad in the next book IMO. Its the only navy left plus winter fighting is likely to happen and UNLIKELY to be fighting anywhere else. Dohlar's serious problem is that lack of clear authority to initiate a peace talk with Charis combined with a very ideologically split council.

Dohlar's emperor has clear authority to pull the delicate dance moves to go neutral, Duke Fern cannot do this anywhere near as well. Thus why I sort of expect Charis is going to have to severely chastise Dohlar.

As an aside Dohlar is also in a position that is quite isolated, CoGA has no easy way to reach Dohlar. The only feasible path for the CoGA force is the Fairmyn river which has Charis armies near both ends of it (Hanth is on the Seridhan river and Eastshare controls Daivyn River). Any army using it is asking to be cut off and destroyed in detail.

Yeah, Dohlar's current style of government is not competent to arrange a change in belligerent status. So if a change in belligerent status becomes compelling, they're going to need to change things at the top.

The Pigeon King coming back from the coop and actually ruling could do it, but that's nothing I can see happening. The most I can see that way is Rahnahld being buttonholed for an intense conversation to get across the point that Dohlar cannot win this war and survival demands getting out of it, or switching sides. (And neutrality really does favor Charis - all the Allies really want is to have attacks on them stop and, by preference, trade resumed. Desnair's situation isn't actually that friendly - it's more desultory bare participation in the jihad.) Backing out of the jihad and riding those rapids will demand far more leadership than Rahnahld is capable of exercising over time, so I'd figure on abdication in favor of a regency council charged with the preservation of Dohlar outside strict obedience to Zion. Constitutional reforms included would be awesome, but secondary in importance.

Physical isolation from the Temple matters less and less. If you tick off the Temple, they can:
1 - have the local Inquisition tap local secular forces to make things happen,
2 - send the Temple Guard, the Army of God, or loyal secular forces to remonstrate forcefully, or
3 - jerk you around based on what you owe them.

(1) won't work if you have your own forces loyal to your own state. The local secular forces will be called on by you to arrest the Inquisition, not the other way around.
(2) won't work too well anymore - all those forces are kinda busy, disarmed, or captive. Isolation does help there, but it's not that necessary these days.
(3) won't work because, thanks to the expenses of the jihad, you don't owe them anymore: they owe you. Ironically, the distrust of Charis and Siddarmark that led to this war was based in large part on their not being under the Church's credit heel. Because of that jihad, no one is under the Church credit heel anymore.

JeffEngel wrote:

CJK wrote:Oh Dohlar will be leaving the jihad in the next book IMO. Its the only navy left plus winter fighting is likely to happen and UNLIKELY to be fighting anywhere else. Dohlar's serious problem is that lack of clear authority to initiate a peace talk with Charis combined with a very ideologically split council.

Dohlar's emperor has clear authority to pull the delicate dance moves to go neutral, Duke Fern cannot do this anywhere near as well. Thus why I sort of expect Charis is going to have to severely chastise Dohlar.

As an aside Dohlar is also in a position that is quite isolated, CoGA has no easy way to reach Dohlar. The only feasible path for the CoGA force is the Fairmyn river which has Charis armies near both ends of it (Hanth is on the Seridhan river and Eastshare controls Daivyn River). Any army using it is asking to be cut off and destroyed in detail.

Yeah, Dohlar's current style of government is not competent to arrange a change in belligerent status. So if a change in belligerent status becomes compelling, they're going to need to change things at the top.

The Pigeon King coming back from the coop and actually ruling could do it, but that's nothing I can see happening. The most I can see that way is Rahnahld being buttonholed for an intense conversation to get across the point that Dohlar cannot win this war and survival demands getting out of it, or switching sides. (And neutrality really does favor Charis - all the Allies really want is to have attacks on them stop and, by preference, trade resumed. Desnair's situation isn't actually that friendly - it's more desultory bare participation in the jihad.) Backing out of the jihad and riding those rapids will demand far more leadership than Rahnahld is capable of exercising over time, so I'd figure on abdication in favor of a regency council charged with the preservation of Dohlar outside strict obedience to Zion. Constitutional reforms included would be awesome, but secondary in importance.

Physical isolation from the Temple matters less and less. If you tick off the Temple, they can:
1 - have the local Inquisition tap local secular forces to make things happen,
2 - send the Temple Guard, the Army of God, or loyal secular forces to remonstrate forcefully, or
3 - jerk you around based on what you owe them.

(1) won't work if you have your own forces loyal to your own state. The local secular forces will be called on by you to arrest the Inquisition, not the other way around.
(2) won't work too well anymore - all those forces are kinda busy, disarmed, or captive. Isolation does help there, but it's not that necessary these days.
(3) won't work because, thanks to the expenses of the jihad, you don't owe them anymore: they owe you. Ironically, the distrust of Charis and Siddarmark that led to this war was based in large part on their not being under the Church's credit heel. Because of that jihad, no one is under the Church credit heel anymore.

The fundamental for Dohlar getting out of the Jihad is neutralizing the inquisition locally. To do that you have to arrange it without the inquisition sniffing it out first.

About the only thing I can think of is for Ahlverez or Thirsk to take a core of loyal supporters and go arrest the intendant and work down from there.

Maybe Maik could be persuaded to join the cabal...

Otherwise the only thing I can see is for the ICN to show up and provide a proper demonstration as to how you deal with inquisitors. A less than ideal solution, but this latter seems to me to be the strongest possibility about what's going to happen.

Don

n7axw wrote:
The fundamental for Dohlar getting out of the Jihad is neutralizing the inquisition locally. To do that you have to arrange it without the inquisition sniffing it out first.

About the only thing I can think of is for Ahlverez or Thirsk to take a core of loyal supporters and go arrest the intendant and work down from there.

Maybe Maik could be persuaded to join the cabal...

Otherwise the only thing I can see is for the ICN to show up and provide a proper demonstration as to how you deal with inquisitors. A less than ideal solution, but this latter seems to me to be the strongest possibility about what's going to happen.

Don

I pretty much agree with your points, Don. I would add that it is preferable to have Dohlarans decide to cast off the yoke of the inquisition on their own. To fight the ICN and lose leaves Dohlar the out of being forced into withdrawing from the jihad.

Should Dohlar face the might of the ICN KHs, the City class and the RSA on their borders and decide before the inevitable to surrender, they cannot EVER come back into the jihadi fold. I believe that's why the King Haarald's were built.

As RFC noted in his posts, the Cities will have arrived in the Gulf of Dohlar well before the KH VIIs. They will be able to systematically destroy port cities with near impunity. Those screw galleys now stationed in South Harchong will do their best against the City class ironclads. Not going to do much at all to stop the Cities from hammering a few port cities. The ICN will hammer South Harchong and perhaps even some of the North Harchong ports on its way to Gorath. With each port city ravaged, the superiority of the Cities will become ever more evident.

Should the City class ships be accompanied by the KH VIIs when the ICN visits Gorath, does anyone honestly think that the rational elements in Dohlar's government will deny the inevitable conclusion of continued hostilities? They will either take out the Inquisition themselves and sue for peace or continue fighting a war that can only end with all their shipping infrastructure (and wealth) destroyed. By this time both Desnair and South Harchong will already be out of it.

The biggest reason to capitulate is rather mercenary. With the merchant shipping of South Harchong hammered by the ICN City class ironclads, Dohlar can have something close to a monopoly of the shipping in the Gulf of Dohlar. That is if they come to terms with the ICN before all the Dohlaran ships and infrastructure are destroyed in a futile defense of the Inquisition. King Raynahld's dream of a Dohlaran commercial empire can be realized with Dohlar's capitulation.

The threat of the KH VIIs might actually make it possible to smooth over Dohlar's capitulation later on. One doesn't have to be Borg to understand resistance is futile.

@ PeterZ I question whether Charis will wait for the KHs to be ready, after all they are not required to achieve a naval victory over Dohlar. Also Harchong has already been beaten up a fair bit so it is of questionable value to continue given its size. NTM Dohlar has an army at its gates which could support any military goals. Plus there is the time window of the host of god and archangels being shut down by winter while Charis still has mobility. It makes far more sense to hammer Dohlar out of the war in this situation to me and leave Harchong for later.

Secondly by now Thirsk has a very good idea of what is going to happen to his navy once the ironclads show up. His problem is the council will likely not see that and his immediate superior REALLY wants him dead. Granted we know very little about the Dohlar council but what we do know is not good:

Earl Thirsk Navy field commander
Duke Thorast Navy commander
Duke Fern First councilor
Zhorj Laikhyrst Foreign minister
Shain Hauwyl Army commander
Raiynos Army field commander

Out of these 6 only 2 are known to have reservations with the jihad; Thirsk and Fern. Zhorj we know nothing about other than he is nervous over the demands made by the inquisition and the rest (3) have generally expressed pious support for the jihad. Then there is the small fact that Thirsk is not a powerful noble with few connections compared to his boss and the army commanders. This is why I feel Dohlar may need to be forcibly removed from the jihad. Finally there is the small matter of the Charisian seamen handed over to the inquisition, which will put pressure on Charis to punish those responsible and also could make those Dohlarian nobles involved dig in their heels.

Bottom line I see a lot of strands which suggest a military solution rather than a diplomatic one for Dohlar. Unless of course Thirsk takes more drastic measures that can really only succeed if he gets some assistance from seijin. (excellent intel and some really nasty combat skills because hey its a novel and mischief and mayhem make for great stories)

I see Thorast's and Salthar's influence fading as the Jihad continues to go badly and as Dohlar's position worsens. The conversation Fern was able to initiate about what to do with the prisoners suggests that the process has already begun.

Politically, in spite of the danger from the inquisition, Thirsk's position in Dohlar is probably about as strong as it's going to get relative to his enemies. If he is going to move, it should probably as soon as possible.

Don

@CJK

Charis won't wait for the KH VIIs. The city class ships are on their way from Desnair. Those ships either sail around Howard to the Gulf or head back through Charisian waters and the Great Western Ocean to the Gulf. I suspect they will take the Chrisian route to pick up additional troops and the necessary colliers. The process will take some time. So when they reach the Gulf, it will be going on late winter early spring. By the time they take out the port cities of Howard, the KH VIIs will have arrived to join the Cities on their way to visit Dohlar.

Thirsk already knows what this means as soon as the first reports of the ocean going steam ships are reported in the Gulf. All those others will have had their heads in the sand, however. When the KH VIIs join the Cities and that juggernaut heads for Dohlar, Duke Thorast and any of his allies will have to take their heads out of the ground. They either capitulate or lose all their lands to the invading Siddermarkians or their port cities to the ICN behemoths.

If the ICN takes the time to methodically destroy port cities on their way to Gorath with just the City class ships, I don't see anyone in Dohlar not recognizing the inevitable as soon as the KH VIIs show up to add their obvious superior firepower to the mix.

PeterZ wrote:@CJK

Charis won't wait for the KH VIIs. The city class ships are on their way from Desnair. Those ships either sail around Howard to the Gulf or head back through Charisian waters and the Great Western Ocean to the Gulf. I suspect they will take the Chrisian route to pick up additional troops and the necessary colliers. The process will take some time. So when they reach the Gulf, it will be going on late winter early spring. By the time they take out the port cities of Howard, the KH VIIs will have arrived to join the Cities on their way to visit Dohlar.

Thirsk already knows what this means as soon as the first reports of the ocean going steam ships are reported in the Gulf. All those others will have had their heads in the sand, however. When the KH VIIs join the Cities and that juggernaut heads for Dohlar, Duke Thorast and any of his allies will have to take their heads out of the ground. They either capitulate or lose all their lands to the invading Siddermarkians or their port cities to the ICN behemoths.

If the ICN takes the time to methodically destroy port cities on their way to Gorath with just the City class ships, I don't see anyone in Dohlar not recognizing the inevitable as soon as the KH VIIs show up to add their obvious superior firepower to the mix.

My suspicion is that it will be over before the Haarahlds arrive.

Don

n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:@CJK

Charis won't wait for the KH VIIs. The city class ships are on their way from Desnair. Those ships either sail around Howard to the Gulf or head back through Charisian waters and the Great Western Ocean to the Gulf. I suspect they will take the Chrisian route to pick up additional troops and the necessary colliers. The process will take some time. So when they reach the Gulf, it will be going on late winter early spring. By the time they take out the port cities of Howard, the KH VIIs will have arrived to join the Cities on their way to visit Dohlar.

Thirsk already knows what this means as soon as the first reports of the ocean going steam ships are reported in the Gulf. All those others will have had their heads in the sand, however. When the KH VIIs join the Cities and that juggernaut heads for Dohlar, Duke Thorast and any of his allies will have to take their heads out of the ground. They either capitulate or lose all their lands to the invading Siddermarkians or their port cities to the ICN behemoths.

If the ICN takes the time to methodically destroy port cities on their way to Gorath with just the City class ships, I don't see anyone in Dohlar not recognizing the inevitable as soon as the KH VIIs show up to add their obvious superior firepower to the mix.

My suspicion is that it will be over before the Haarahlds arrive.

Don

Not really disagreeing. My point is that the ostriches might be able to keep their heads firmly in the sand until they see the KH VIIs. The God allowed the screw galleys to defeat Dreadnought after all. I am sure they can come up with something to defeat the City Class ships. Those things are not that much bigger than Dreadnought after all. With human effort and God's will, Dohlar might yet salvage another victory from the jaws of defeat.

No amount rationalization might allow the most deluded Dohlaran politician to envision a way to defeat steel armored ships that displace 15,000 tons and that can shrug off solid shot from the Dohlaran 10 inch shore guns. They may never know that last bit, since the KH VIIs will fire from well beyond those Dohlaran 10 inchers' range. So, while I agree it'll be all over by the time the KH VIIs arrive, the Dohlarans might not actually surrender until they do arrive.

IMO the cities are sufficient to defeat Dohlar, at least based on what MWW has stated on this forum about how the KH's are not required to achieve victory and the time constraints I mentioned earlier concerning the Host of God and Archangels. (HoGaA)

Head in the sand is a interesting way to put it, one I feel glosses over some very practical reasons why Thorast and Salthar are temple hard-line supporters. First being stated in book 3 is how Thorast has powerful connections according to Bishop Maik. I doubt he was referring to purely secular connections, which means they are vested in keeping the CoGA in power. Second is well Thorast HATES Thirsk, hatred makes people do stupid things and lets face it Thorast has not shown anything other than wanting to oppose Thirsk whenever possible. Then there is the small matter of ignorance, as others have mentioned I expect that until they see it for themselves how outclassed they are they cannot internalize it. Thirsk has done pretty well so far but they only get after action reports and neither are seamen. Nor have they seen what has happened to CoGA forces that got creamed by Charis. Salthar in particular would not sign onto new innovations without severe pressure from Duke Fern.