HFQ Official Snippet #19 (I think)

JeffEngel wrote:[SNIP]
I'm not guaranteeing or definitely expecting that outbreak of sanity in the Inquisition. Certainly it's not typical of Clyntahn. But it's possible that somewhere, there is someone who may prevent that kind of disaster.

I agree, there will be some inquisitors, especially those in the field, who don't agree with prosecutions for militarily inevitable retreats. But in the face of military setbacks that Clyntahn is about to experience, Clyntahn needs scapegoats, both psychologically and for deflecting any blame from his leadership. And if he determines that open prosecution won't work (e.g. Thirsk), then it's an assassination by one of Rayno's agents.
What that would lead to rather quickly is a fractioning within the Inquisition, resentment in the CoGA armies against Clyntahn, and consequently putting Maigwair in a position where he either has to act against Clyntahn or loose control about the CoGA armies. That's one of the more likely scenarios for the collapse of the current war.

anwi wrote:

JeffEngel wrote:[SNIP]
I'm not guaranteeing or definitely expecting that outbreak of sanity in the Inquisition. Certainly it's not typical of Clyntahn. But it's possible that somewhere, there is someone who may prevent that kind of disaster.

I agree, there will be some inquisitors, especially those in the field, who don't agree with prosecutions for militarily inevitable retreats. But in the face of military setbacks that Clyntahn is about to experience, Clyntahn needs scapegoats, both psychologically and for deflecting any blame from his leadership. And if he determines that open prosecution won't work (e.g. Thirsk), then it's an assassination by one of Rayno's agents.
What that would lead to rather quickly is a fractioning within the Inquisition, resentment in the CoGA armies against Clyntahn, and consequently putting Maigwair in a position where he either has to act against Clyntahn or loose control about the CoGA armies. That's one of the more likely scenarios for the collapse of the current war.

I wonder if the Group of Four may manage some sort of compromise: put the senior surviving Dohlaran officers' families under Church "protection" (perhaps deeper down the chain of command than already) to remind them they're on thin ice; blame the dead or captured Desnairian commanders for insufficient attention to rear area security and logistics; imprison their families to concern other leaders short of putting their backs to the wall; and seize their lands to help address Church finances.

It's not all the blood or fear that Clyntahn may want; it's trashing officers out of proportion, which Magwair won't like and Duchairn will have genuine moral qualms about; but it could leave all parties still working together. Trynair may sponsor it and Rayno may help get Clyntahn to take it. Trynair's relevance right now is mostly about delaying and softening the collisions among Clyntahn, Duchairn, Magwair, and reality - let him earn his pay.

What Ahlverez and others await at the hands of their superiors and their leaders?

Ahlverez' situation will be, at best, tenuous. He will face accusations from both Hennet and Fyrnych, each of whom has an interest in covering his own rear, and each of whom has an axe to grind with Ahlverez. Further, Clyntahn already has demonstrated the willingness to behead both a commander and his intendant when they've done something to displease him (Kaitsworth's commander of his left flank, I believe). Third, Clyntahn needs to throw a bone to the Desnairians to keep their fervor up. Fourth, Clyntahn has been a Hitlerian fool when it comes to retreating in the face of the enemy. Fifth, Clyntahn already will have been faced with retreats or defeats on the part of Rychtyr and his officers, and this has been his method of dealing with those retreats (at least, whenever he's had a live scapegoat available), as a dis-incentive to any one else who's considering retreating. Sixth, it would be easy to "interpret" Ahlverez' actions as cowardly and/or incompetent, regardless of what his dispatches say. For example, Clyntahn could cite Ahlverez' "disobedience" of orders, "cowardly (craven?) abandonment" of Harless, "running" in the face of the enemy, as justifications for whatever he wants to do.

The question is, what will he do? Take more families hostage, for one. Execute, if not Ahlverez, some of his subordinates or someone close to him (his intendant, his artillary commander, others?). Strip him of his rank. Publicly humiliate him. Force him into seclusion. Who knows.

One major point will be that Clyntahn likely will become more and more irrational, and may slip the leashes on his inquisitors even more, in addition to doing something stupid with regard to Ahlverez and/or Dohlar's armed forces (he might even go so far as to try to replace Dohlar's commanders with his own hand-picked, non-Dohlarian men).

His actions, whatever they are, will result in further disaffection and internal grumblings within Dohlar's armed forces (certainly), its nobility (very probably)and likely its populace. At this point, Clyntahn won't care, because he's "Got a great fuc—ah, I mean a right smart-sized army," as Zhapyth Slaytyr would say, coming down the road in a couple of months, and he will do it to secure Desnair's continued support of the war as well. However, when those forces are defeated, he'll lose the hearts and minds of most Dohlarians. This will be a good thing for CE.

However, none of those fortifications were artillery forts _until_ the ICA started rebuilding them - or, more accurately, scrapped them and built replacements, which is what Eastshare did at Ft. Tairys. [What Hanth did was more de novo, in the Lines of Torres Vedras style, but he doesn't seem to have demolished any original fortifications, just ignored them]

Everything we've seen so far has been an infantry fort. They included artillery platforms, but they were not defended against artillery attack, so sieges were obviously being conducted in the old-fashioned style: camp outside the walls for 10 years, then buy your way in. only in rare cases, as at Alykberg, would the walls ever be assaulted by real live - and dying - troops, and only when you were sure you'd be able to get more of your people over the wall than there were defenders to fight them. Hard as in may be to believe after watching Harless' performance, Safeholdian armies are really too mobile for heavy siege trains to be practical: they move so slowly that either the opposition flanks you and overruns it - in which case you can't conduct the siege anyway - or you operate your forces to defend the train and wind up fighting a pitched battle that makes sieges unnecessary.

n7axw wrote:

Graydon wrote:
Does Safehold history typically have major sieges?

From what little we've got, the answer is no; the Church tolerated a certain amount of open-field warfare, but any time things got down to the potentially decisive or the potentially genocidal, the Church has tended to step in and force a settlement. If no one expects to have to besiege a walled city, or at least not a major one, the effort to make the heavy siege train isn't going to get made. (As distinct from Ottomans, who had both Christian fortress-cities and their own subsidiary cities, potentially held by rebellious satraps, to worry about.)

Just to throw something in here... The art of doing sieges is apparently known. Alyksburg was a walled city which Ahlverez had to assault. It was undermanned to the point where a standard siege didn't need to be conducted. But the implication that under other circumstances it might have been needed is there. When DE redid Ft. Tairys, he had engineers who understood how the positions had to be constructed to withstand direct assault. The Desnairians and Dohlarans, on the other hand knew how to develop siege lines approaching those positions.

My point is that siege warfare was apparently known to both sides although we don't have a lot of evidence about how frequently it was done. We do know that the church does step in occasionally, especially when it perceives its interests threatened. But the church obviously never managed to banish war. And where you have war, there will be sieges.

Don

Just saw this snippet, David. Thank you. Hope everything gets restored to fully normal and fully healthy soon.

XofDallas wrote:What Ahlverez and others await at the hands of their superiors and their leaders?

Ahlverez' situation will be, at best, tenuous. He will face accusations from both Hennet and Fyrnych, each of whom has an interest in covering his own rear, and each of whom has an axe to grind with Ahlverez. Further, Clyntahn already has demonstrated the willingness to behead both a commander and his intendant when they've done something to displease him (Kaitsworth's commander of his left flank, I believe). Third, Clyntahn needs to throw a bone to the Desnairians to keep their fervor up. Fourth, Clyntahn has been a Hitlerian fool when it comes to retreating in the face of the enemy. Fifth, Clyntahn already will have been faced with retreats or defeats on the part of Rychtyr and his officers, and this has been his method of dealing with those retreats (at least, whenever he's had a live scapegoat available), as a dis-incentive to any one else who's considering retreating. Sixth, it would be easy to "interpret" Ahlverez' actions as cowardly and/or incompetent, regardless of what his dispatches say. For example, Clyntahn could cite Ahlverez' "disobedience" of orders, "cowardly (craven?) abandonment" of Harless, "running" in the face of the enemy, as justifications for whatever he wants to do.

The question is, what will he do? Take more families hostage, for one. Execute, if not Ahlverez, some of his subordinates or someone close to him (his intendant, his artillary commander, others?). Strip him of his rank. Publicly humiliate him. Force him into seclusion. Who knows.

One major point will be that Clyntahn likely will become more and more irrational, and may slip the leashes on his inquisitors even more, in addition to doing something stupid with regard to Ahlverez and/or Dohlar's armed forces (he might even go so far as to try to replace Dohlar's commanders with his own hand-picked, non-Dohlarian men).

His actions, whatever they are, will result in further disaffection and internal grumblings within Dohlar's armed forces (certainly), its nobility (very probably)and likely its populace. At this point, Clyntahn won't care, because he's "Got a great fuc—ah, I mean a right smart-sized army," as Zhapyth Slaytyr would say, coming down the road in a couple of months, and he will do it to secure Desnair's continued support of the war as well. However, when those forces are defeated, he'll lose the hearts and minds of most Dohlarians. This will be a good thing for CE.

I hate watching even villains be stupid. I can't, however, say that any of this stupidity is terribly unlikely. One thing though - Clyntahn does want the jihad to win. Unlike Hitler, he's not going to get in some funk so twisted that he'd want the Church to burn if it fails him. Magwair's earned credit by now as having a grasp on the technical aspects of fighting that war and quality of officers and men, and he's sure to be able (and even willing!) to tell Clyntahn that throwing Desnair a bone at the cost of ticking off Dohlar is rewarding failure.

The whole southern fiasco can be laid at the foot of Desnairian leadership. Moreover, it takes willful denial of reality to read it otherwise. Ahlvarez made the difference between keeping 40,000 men and losing all of them too. If the other Go4 members have to, they can smear Desnair's reputation with Clyntahn more reminding him of their naval "cowardice" and the defecting two commanders. It's not fair - the Desnairian army commanders vices were their own, and their naval commanders, corrupt and amateurish though they were, did what they could and took more than they should have before surrendering, not less - but it would appeal to Clyntahn's wrath and point it at people the jihad does not need so badly. Right now, the worst Dohlaran officer is better than the best Desnairian, on land or sea, and you can expect more out of 10 Dohlarans than 100 Desnairians. The best the Church can get out of those overbred horse lovers is taxes, absorbing Charisian attention, and privateering. He can vent all he wants on their officers and hurt the jihad doing it barely at all.

runsforcelery wrote:
.VI.
Fifty Miles East of Malys,
The South March Lands,
Republic of Siddarmark.

As I recall, LaMA ended with High Mount stuck in the Kyplinger and further North. Eastshare had to consolidate his position East of the Kyplinger. Neither could pursue Ahlvahrez as he ran towards Dohlar. This snippet describes an army that has traveled hard and fast. I suspect Ahvahrez has beaten both High Mount and Eastshare off the mark. He has a clean shot at reaching either Rychtyr or Hanth's flank.

Recognizing his flank is exposed, Hanth might slow down his advance towards Evrytyn once his spies realize Ahvahrez is near. That might allow both Ahlvahrez and Rychtyr to consolidate before High Mount and Eastshare can reinforce Hanth. The big question would then be how much of the Dohlaran army they can get along the Sheryl-Seridahn canal before the ICA slams that door shut?

I can see Delthak too far North along the Seridahn to retreat. I suspect that Captain Bahrnes will wait for High Mount at Riverfork or Alykberg. I don't see Bahrnes entering a canal until the ICA controls all the locks along his path. He can stay on the a river with locks destroyed, but he can't risk getting caught in a stretch of canal with too little water to float his ironclad.

Once reorganized, High Mount will head for Alykberg. He has to try and shut down Kaitswyrth's supply lines at Dairnyth. I believe High Mount can get his dragoons to Dairnyth and secure the locks along the way before the Dohlarans can respond. Their priorities are to secure the Sheryl-Seridahn first and everything else later.

Eastshare will likely not be able to secure the locks along the Sheryl-Seridahn before Ahlvahrez destroys them. The slog into Dohlar will be tougher as the ICA has to wait for their engineers to fix any broken locks. That should give Ahlvahrez until later in the summer before the ICA can have the logistics support to move into Dohlar in force.

We shall see how this plays out. It appears that has escaped the noose and Dohlar has a bit of time before their goose is truly cooked.

isaac_newton wrote:
Great snippet

Why should it not be a suprise to one specific man? Even if there were breachloading bombards in the early history, that seems to have been quite a while back - centuries maybe, so the knowledge of them would have faded from general memory. Everyone 'knows' that artiliary pieces are muzzle loaders!

Besides we all know that not everyone is a history buff - especially some soldiers

It's a point, i must admit.

PeterZ wrote:

runsforcelery wrote:
.VI.
Fifty Miles East of Malys,
The South March Lands,
Republic of Siddarmark.

As I recall, LaMA ended with High Mount stuck in the Kyplinger and further North. Eastshare had to consolidate his position East of the Kyplinger. Neither could pursue Ahlvahrez as he ran towards Dohlar. This snippet describes an army that has traveled hard and fast. I suspect Ahvahrez has beaten both High Mount and Eastshare off the mark. He has a clean shot at reaching either Rychtyr or Hanth's flank.

Recognizing his flank is exposed, Hanth might slow down his advance towards Evrytyn once his spies realize Ahvahrez is near. That might allow both Ahlvahrez and Rychtyr to consolidate before High Mount and Eastshare can reinforce Hanth. The big question would then be how much of the Dohlaran army they can get along the Sheryl-Seridahn canal before the ICA slams that door shut?

I can see Delthak too far North along the Seridahn to retreat. I suspect that Captain Bahrnes will wait for High Mount at Riverfork or Alykberg. I don't see Bahrnes entering a canal until the ICA controls all the locks along his path. He can stay on the a river with locks destroyed, but he can't risk getting caught in a stretch of canal with too little water to float his ironclad.

Once reorganized, High Mount will head for Alykberg. He has to try and shut down Kaitswyrth's supply lines at Dairnyth. I believe High Mount can get his dragoons to Dairnyth and secure the locks along the way before the Dohlarans can respond. Their priorities are to secure the Sheryl-Seridahn first and everything else later.

Eastshare will likely not be able to secure the locks along the Sheryl-Seridahn before Ahlvahrez destroys them. The slog into Dohlar will be tougher as the ICA has to wait for their engineers to fix any broken locks. That should give Ahlvahrez until later in the summer before the ICA can have the logistics support to move into Dohlar in force.

We shall see how this plays out. It appears that has escaped the noose and Dohlar has a bit of time before their goose is truly cooked.

Do the ICA really want to move into Dohlar in force? Especially this summer with the MHoGatA coming down from the North and Kaitswyrth still with an army in the field in Cliff Peak Province? I think they have more important fish to fry than trying to occupy a large area with a hostile population. That is only going to soak up LOTS of troops they need fighting battles elsewhere.

We don't really have a view of EoC or Allied strategy. The strategy so far has been very reactive:- 'survive and beat the field armies threatening our allies before they beat us.' We have yet to see the EoC actually be strategically proactive, they haven't had the troops or time for it.

So what should they do? Suppose BGV wins in the NE, Kaitswyrth is dealt with and the MHoGatA is thoroughly disrupted, somehow, this summer, what should the EoC plan to do then, strategically speaking?

Let's not forget that for all intents and purposes, Desnair is out of the war for good as soon as the Haarahld VIIs arrive in the eastern Gulf of Dohlar in August or September. All Desnairan supplies and troops are currently being shipped to the Salthar canal in Silkiah via Hankey Sound. That's about to come to a screeching halt. (Well, a bubbling, gurgling halt as all the Desnairan shipping descends to Daivy Johnes locker!)

The road up the west coast of North Watch province in Desnair (the isthmus that connects it to Silkiah) is already cut in six places, so shipping troops and supplies north from Desnair is going to be impossible soon, and an army marches on its stomach, which Desnair just learned the hard way. So there won't be many Desnairans involved in fighting for the rest of the war.

Ditto for South Harchong, which is about to lose its main harbors and a goodly amount of its shipping. With the ICN running wild in the Gulf of Dohlar on a permanent basis, all the countries on the southern side of the Gulf of Dohlar are out of the war. A large amount of the supplies and troops for the war have been moving by ship from North Harchong and the border states as well, and that's going to end by next year. (And quite possibly earlier if the ICA manages to seize the Salthar canal through Silkiah so the ICN fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar can be easily resupplied and several river ironclads can slip through.)

What we're about to see is the destruction of Kaitswyrth, Wyrshym, and the Harchongese horde. Dohlar will be suing for terms when it faces invasion. Some of the border states may as well.

Clyntahn will lash out like the rabid dog he is, seeking scapegoats and making examples of anyone he deems lacks sufficient zeal or shows defeatism, which may be what we have seen in the sneak snippet about Thirsk. The Inquisition, which isn't exactly beloved at the best of times, is going to make enemies across the globe with its excesses until entire countries tire of it. I expect a lot of army units will eventually shoot the inquisitors assigned to them rather than stand and die under the heretic's guns.

I suspect Cayleb will make an exception of taking prisoners when freeing a prison camp, which may happen in HFQ. HM isn't terribly far from some of the camps in Cliff Peak, and Kaitswyrth is the worst of the CoGA's generals and the most likely to take "guidance" from Clyntahn. Unless BGV destroys Wyrshym this winter, Kaitswyrth is the most likely to beat a hasty retreat soon, leaving prison camps in his wake.

Once they encounter their first prison camp, I can't imagine that any Siddarmarkan soldier will ever consider accepting an enemy soldier's surrender. There will be some loud grumblings among the ranks of the ICA as well. Good thing they get to shoot inquisitors on sight!