HFQ Official Snippet #16

n7axw wrote:I just re-read this snippet. Some of the speculation suggested underwater swimmers to place explosives on the barges blocking the channel. If it was as dark as described in the snippet for the lookouts, imagine how dark it must have been for the swimmers....like the ace of spades! I wonder how they managed that.

Some sort of calcium carbide light?

If the water's deep enough, you could run lights down by the bottom and they'd be invisible on the surface. (After all, if sunlight doesn't get down there, your little chemical light isn't going to get up from there either.) The guy snorkeling on the surface could be the guy who had a regulator failure or the guy with their light off running fuse over an obstacle.

Thanks for all the answers. I think I have to reread my LAMA.

So, Alvahrez's moving towards Fort Sandfish... So that's what the marsh guns were. Chekhov's guns!

Honestly, I'm actually kind of waiting for Alvahrez's victory. So far, he's been only losing less than rest of them commanders (Alyksberg and Tairys. Not much more to his name in terms of major battles, IIRC).
Problem is, if he does take the marsh guns, what will he do next? Find a way to "jump over" the passage between the marshes? That would take him to Silkiah... and this way, he's stuck in foreign country with no contact with his own (the only land passage is in ICA hands). Seeing how everybody speculates about Silkiah joining the Allies soon, it may become interesting.

dwileye13 wrote:We have no textev that Merlin is feeding his intelligence to Hanth (BTW: why hasn't Hanth been brought into the Inner Circle??)

IIRC, they didn't have time or something like that. He was called back from retirement and put in charge, then sent to sea immediately. The only opportunity, really, to bring him in would be aboard a galleon en route to Siddarmark, and somehow I don't think that's such a good idea.

XofDallas wrote:
So, what are his options?
<Snip>

How this shakes out will be interesting, but could prove dangerous for the civilians and fields of the South March lands, and for Hanth's right flank.

A lot of this depends on what Ahlvarez actually finds out about the wider situation and when

Lama pp576/7 wrote:By the time the mounted Charisians could swing back south, Ahlverez was halfway to Thesmar. He’d had to abandon his wounded, but he’d judged the Charisians more acutely than the Desnairians in that respect, as well.
...
As for Ahlverez, his escape was far from certain even now. Couriers were looking for him — with very little idea of where to find him — to warn him [about Rychter's withdrawal]
....

but whether Ahlverez could avoid Hanth and reach Evrytyn was quite another matter.

Ahlvarez leads his men off at the end of the February 897 chapter and both this summary and the HFQ snippets are from March 897. I would guess by Snippet 16 we must be well into March. According to the above, Ahlvarez' initial goal was to link up with Rychtyr near Thesmar and he had gone a good way towards it. So his initial route must have been between West and Southwest when he got out of the Kyplynger. Where he is now depends on how much time has passed, and where or whether Rychtyr's couriers found him. But it is unlikely that he has headed for anywhere in the direction of Fort Sandfish.

If his men are in any shape to fight, he might try to bypass Thesmar and retake Somyr. But I really doubt they are in shape to do anything but try to break their way through back to Dohlar.

Kakai wrote:Thanks for all the answers. I think I have to reread my LAMA.

So, Alvahrez's moving towards Fort Sandfish... So that's what the marsh guns were. Chekhov's guns!

Honestly, I'm actually kind of waiting for Alvahrez's victory. So far, he's been only losing less than rest of them commanders (Alyksberg and Tairys. Not much more to his name in terms of major battles, IIRC).
Problem is, if he does take the marsh guns, what will he do next? Find a way to "jump over" the passage between the marshes? That would take him to Silkiah... and this way, he's stuck in foreign country with no contact with his own (the only land passage is in ICA hands). Seeing how everybody speculates about Silkiah joining the Allies soon, it may become interesting.

dwileye13 wrote:We have no textev that Merlin is feeding his intelligence to Hanth (BTW: why hasn't Hanth been brought into the Inner Circle??)

IIRC, they didn't have time or something like that. He was called back from retirement and put in charge, then sent to sea immediately. The only opportunity, really, to bring him in would be aboard a galleon en route to Siddarmark, and somehow I don't think that's such a good idea.

The difficulty with Alverez taking the Marsh guns would be what would he do with them once he got them. Then too, as I recall, those guns are under regular observation by Hewyt's galleons. If he actually got a hold of them, he'd find himself under the fire of one of those bombardment ships. Doubtful advantage in that.

If he could get across to Silkiah, he would be free of pursuit by Alliance armies. He could make his way toward Dohlar through an area which had not yet been ravaged, although it would be a bit rough on his hosts. But he has no way across that the ICN wouldn't be able to interdict.

Don

Graydon wrote:Some sort of calcium carbide light?

If the water's deep enough, you could run lights down by the bottom and they'd be invisible on the surface. (After all, if sunlight doesn't get down there, your little chemical light isn't going to get up from there either.) The guy snorkeling on the surface could be the guy who had a regulator failure or the guy with their light off running fuse over an obstacle.

Regulators, perhaps. All mechanical, and we know they are making highly compressed air. Carbide lights at depth, no. Carbide lights work by reacting the CaC with water to make acetylene, which is then burnt. (A) Good way to go through your air tank quickly (B) Acetylene pressurized to more than about 1 atm gauge tends to do Bad Things (welding tanks, etc. actually have the acetylene dissolved in acetone which is absorbed onto a solid but porous filling).

My guess is the KISS philosophy: they are frogmen using snorkels. Probably more discrete than the bubbles from an open circuit regulator.

EDIT: Also, having a pile of CaC in your pocket when a leak would set it ALL off is another Bad Thing.

Not to mention that the process to produce calcium carbide in any reasonable quantity (I.e. Cheaply enough to be feasible) involves electric arc furnace.

So, while acetylene torch/lamp does not involve electricity, production of acetylene does.

ParanoidMarvin wrote:

Graydon wrote:Some sort of calcium carbide light?

If the water's deep enough, you could run lights down by the bottom and they'd be invisible on the surface. (After all, if sunlight doesn't get down there, your little chemical light isn't going to get up from there either.) The guy snorkeling on the surface could be the guy who had a regulator failure or the guy with their light off running fuse over an obstacle.

Regulators, perhaps. All mechanical, and we know they are making highly compressed air. Carbide lights at depth, no. Carbide lights work by reacting the CaC with water to make acetylene, which is then burnt. (A) Good way to go through your air tank quickly (B) Acetylene pressurized to more than about 1 atm gauge tends to do Bad Things (welding tanks, etc. actually have the acetylene dissolved in acetone which is absorbed onto a solid but porous filling).

My guess is the KISS philosophy: they are frogmen using snorkels. Probably more discrete than the bubbles from an open circuit regulator.

EDIT: Also, having a pile of CaC in your pocket when a leak would set it ALL off is another Bad Thing.

Hi RunsForCelery,

Thanks for the new snippet!

It seems our speculation regarding the Salthar-Silk Town Canal were premature.

L

Hi Guys,

From the quote, Ahlverez was halfway to Thesmar; ie he had traveled 300 miles in a 5day or two [perhaps 7-8 days], and was well west of the Fort Sandfish road, or roughly the north end of the 'O' in South March Lands on the LaMA South March Lands map.

At that rate he might need only another 7-8 days to reach somewhere near Thesmar but slightly west, to ford or cross the river beyond the garrison.

It may be after the ironclad passes the barrier, Ahlverez may use the remaining sunken barges as a bridge of sorts to cross the river, abandoning any wagons that can't be rafted along side.

So don't worry about the coastal batteries, Ahlverez isn't stupid enough to try to get to Silk Town by sea when he knows that its all controlled by the ICN.

This is an area that hasn't been stripped or plundered the way the region north was, so Ahlverez's force has probably been foraging since leaving the forest after the first 5day.

Given the much reduced size of Ahlverez's force his supply train is for far more men than he has, so the remaining supplies can reduce the foraging time required for the rest of the march just past Thesmar, keeping things simple.

The inner circle, especially Merlin and Cayleb, aren't going to let Ahlverez surprise Hanth.

L

Randomiser wrote:

XofDallas wrote:
So, what are his options?
<Snip>

How this shakes out will be interesting, but could prove dangerous for the civilians and fields of the South March lands, and for Hanth's right flank.

A lot of this depends on what Ahlvarez actually finds out about the wider situation and when

Lama pp576/7 wrote:By the time the mounted Charisians could swing back south, Ahlverez was halfway to Thesmar. He’d had to abandon his wounded, but he’d judged the Charisians more acutely than the Desnairians in that respect, as well.
...
As for Ahlverez, his escape was far from certain even now. Couriers were looking for him — with very little idea of where to find him — to warn him [about Rychter's withdrawal]
....

but whether Ahlverez could avoid Hanth and reach Evrytyn was quite another matter.

Ahlvarez leads his men off at the end of the February 897 chapter and both this summary and the HFQ snippets are from March 897. I would guess by Snippet 16 we must be well into March. According to the above, Ahlvarez' initial goal was to link up with Rychtyr near Thesmar and he had gone a good way towards it. So his initial route must have been between West and Southwest when he got out of the Kyplynger. Where he is now depends on how much time has passed, and where or whether Rychtyr's couriers found him. But it is unlikely that he has headed for anywhere in the direction of Fort Sandfish.

If his men are in any shape to fight, he might try to bypass Thesmar and retake Somyr. But I really doubt they are in shape to do anything but try to break their way through back to Dohlar.

ParanoidMarvin wrote:

Graydon wrote:Some sort of calcium carbide light?

If the water's deep enough, you could run lights down by the bottom and they'd be invisible on the surface. (After all, if sunlight doesn't get down there, your little chemical light isn't going to get up from there either.) The guy snorkeling on the surface could be the guy who had a regulator failure or the guy with their light off running fuse over an obstacle.

Regulators, perhaps. All mechanical, and we know they are making highly compressed air. Carbide lights at depth, no. Carbide lights work by reacting the CaC with water to make acetylene, which is then burnt. (A) Good way to go through your air tank quickly (B) Acetylene pressurized to more than about 1 atm gauge tends to do Bad Things (welding tanks, etc. actually have the acetylene dissolved in acetone which is absorbed onto a solid but porous filling).

My guess is the KISS philosophy: they are frogmen using snorkels. Probably more discrete than the bubbles from an open circuit regulator.

EDIT: Also, having a pile of CaC in your pocket when a leak would set it ALL off is another Bad Thing.

Chemiluminescence would seem to be a safer option - no power required, no off gassing and no explosive gases. (works underwater too, particularly as bait for octopuses and other night hunting fish...)

XofDallas wrote:So, what are his options? 1. Take Fort Sandfish and hold it hostage; 2. Take the two gun batteries (anyone else note the detail on the zoom-map we all use, showing the marshes around Fort Sandfish?). And do what with them? 3. Try, somehow, to commandeer enough seaworthy vessels to take his forces by sea to Silk Town (another interesting map item hee - the sea passage near the marshes is relatively narrow); 4. Raise hell (rape, pillage, burn) until some force arrives to defeat him (if he and his troops are suicidal, they could even turn east to do this)(in addition, his troops likely would lose whatever discipline they have at this point); 5. Journey west with the goal of smashing through any containment forces and reach Dohlaran lines; 6. Journey west or northwest with the hope of evading CE forces and rejoining Dohlaran lines; 7. Surrender; 8. Leave his forces to fight and sneak away so that he personally could reach friendly lines.

How this shakes out will be interesting, but could prove dangerous for the civilians and fields of the South March lands, and for Hanth's right flank.

(1-3) are all just excess ambition on the way to disaster.
(4) is a bit monstrous for him and also leads to disaster.
(8) isn't something he would do.
So I'd figure on (5) or (6) so long as they offer any hope and (7) when they do not. I could see trying to sneak off his Intendents if it gets bad before surrendering, to protect them on the one hand and to allow him to surrender on the other. Or offering them Pasquale's Grace beforehand so that they're not killed by heretics at least.