Hi Don,
Roughly yes, you're right.
The Go4 is doomed, no later than next year because the alliance won't let them recover from what's going to happen in HFQ.
The EoC factories should be finished and operating by spring [~2 month's], so 5-6 month's full production this year seems quite possible besides the work up period, the only bottleneck I see is apparent ammunition production is way too low.
General Taisyn had only 2000 Charisian marines and sailors with him [the other half was a RSA pike regiment], so it wasn't that big of a mess for Charis.
The RSA had an active strength of ~1.2 million before the SoS, with 1.8 million more in the well trained militia for 3 M out of the 129.5 M total population.
We don't have any figures for the SoS-TL fraction fraction of the population, but the remaining combined patriotic army was down to 890,970 according to RFC's Raw Meat etc post, versus the 473,900 TL militia before the RSA had its frontier units slaughtered by the AoG and RDA in MTaT.
Given the September X/10 contingent of 50,000+ combat troops reached the theater in 2 month's or less [ie some time in November], the number of muzzle loading rifles that should have been given to the RSA is around 270,000+ enough for some 60 RSA brigades or 20 divisions, besides the 32,000 captured by Hanth, BGV and DE before the RDA/IDA AoS's additions are added, which could be up around 60,000 in the smooth bores are included.
I've asked before how quickly can the smooth-bore barrels be converted to rifled, especially if they can be rifled by DE's own armorers, ie do they have rifling benches in the field, and if so how many and how fast can they convert them [what kind of power do they use, a dragon]?
I've posted before that the 8,000+ civilians who helped build DE's fortifications etc ought to receive a converted smooth-bore and possibly a captured pistol in thanks, as well as deterrent to any further adventures by the local TL's.
We don't know how many rifles Siddarmark has made since the SoS, having only 8-10,000 on hand then thanks to Nynian, and up to only 4800 by early September, so perhaps something around 27,000 more for 35,000 then before adding the last 4 month's production for something between 55-60,000 up to but not including March 897.
The RSA had trained and equipped 15 divisions [~13,500 without adding any attached artillery] and was in the process of training 15 more [~405,000 total] but obviously didn't have enough rifles yet for all of them until sometime in the spring of 897, which implies more muzzle loader production in the EoC, ie possibly in Emerald, Tarot and Chisholm etc.
The EOC's production of the M96 may top 300,000 for 897, although I expect most made in Maikelberg will stay in Chisholm to equip the new recruits; still some 200,000+ should get to the republic, enabling those Mahndrayn's to be exchanged and turned over to the RSA as well, so without adding any captures from the remainder of the AoG and the MHoGatA, the alliance should be looking at at least a million riflemen in country by the end of 897, or more than half again the 640,000 the MHoGatA expects to get assuming all were on Haven before the ICA blocked South Harchong in the Gulf of Dohlar.
We have yet to read the Go4's reaction to that little hiccup in their plans.
NTM that's far more rifles [25-30%] for the alliance than all those Go4 has had built in the past 5 years, and next year Charis will make another 450,000 more plus the SR's 60,000+ at minimum besides adding 500,000+ more from the MHoGatA.
I expect the ICA to reach at least a million men from the current textev, so how will the Go4 be able to fight 2 million plus riflemen next year [898]?
It would still take almost a another two years to reequip 3 million Siddarmark soldiers with rifles and artillery, without any further captures, but all of that isn't required to win this war.
I don't expect the current war to go much past 898, because the Go4 won't have any armies left to stop the alliance after the MHoGatA is wrecked, ruined or otherwise eliminated from their OoB, sometime this summer as most everyone expects.
Since BGV can be in Zion by the fall if not sooner, courtesy of a lift by the ICN from Salyk in Spinefish Bay, while the Go4 and vicarate are all concentrating on the more conventional land approach of DE, EHM, and the growing RSA from the south east etc, as Dohlar folds and the Border States cave and collapse, while the whole of Howard is effectively out of the war as well; totally justifying the book's title from Zion's point of view.
Again, you're right; manpower really isn't a critical issue for the EoC or the alliance in the field or the factory in this war, and the tech gap is widening.
Now the next war, and the one after that possibly after the 'great reveal', could be entirely different situations, possibly including civil wars across Safehold.
L
[quote="n7axw"]Hi Anwi,
Well, between us let's see if we can come up with some numbers. You feel free to refine this, Lyonheart since you're better than I with numbers. We know the numbers for Charis. Charis' population is 72,000,000 with about 400,000 for their army and 300,000 for their navy as of the beginning of the campaign in MTAT. It terms of the casualties, the Empire has yet to take a real strong hit except for Taisyn and that mess on the Daivyn.
Siddarmark is a lot more problematic since it took a real direct hit in the campaign. We know that at the start, Siddarmark was 131,000, with armed forces in the range of 1.5 million. But between defections and combat losses that total was reduced to about 100,000 million with about 70,000,000 being concentrated in Old Province. Since Charis arrived, Siddarmark will have converted about 180,000 men over to rifles with large numbers of regular army and militia still to be converted over and reorganized. In addition to that, Siddarmark has been furiously recruiting and it is not hard to assume that her army will reach its former size, this time with modern arms.
IIRC, Merlin was expecting the allies armed forces to eventually reach 4-5 percent of total population which between the two lets call at roughly 170,000,000. That would be about 8.5 million under arms. I suspect that Siddarmark's percentage will end up somewhat higher and the EOCs somewhat lower since Charis will have the burden of being the alliance's arsenal.
The thing is, what the alliance is really counting on is how much better she will be armed and how much more efficient her manufactories are than the bad guys. It is not really necessary for her to match the COGA man for man. In fact, I suspect that given that, I suspect that the alliance can win being outnumbered 3 or 4 to one. And the thing is, the tech gap is widening, not narrowing as of the end of LAMA.
So the chokepoint isn't a manpower issue. The problem is that the alliance still doesn't have a large enough industrial base to arm the men she can field promptly, especially on the army side of things. That's not so much a manpower issue as it is the reality that the needed factories are still in the process of being built and people trained to man them. I would expect the EOC's armed forces to expand somewhat from here, but perhaps not hugely so. More will be put into manning the assembly lines, raising food, etc.
That's how it looks from here, anyway. My numbers off the top of my head are a bit rough, but I doubt that refining them will change the picture dramatically.
Don[/quote]
