War final objective? Which front is main axis's of advance?

Hi Don,

Given the time RFC has spent on Dohlar, Ill be surprised if it vanishes from the map, though there may be territorial losses, rather it sets the example of how the second tier states can survive if they change appropriately, which I think can happen if Thirsk and Ahlverez are co-regents etc.

I don't think the Border States will survive or last once the alliance begins to advance into their territory since they are now defenseless, before considering the 'levelers', and so are the eastern temple lands.

Siddarmark, like Stalin and the soviets, may feel it necessary to expand for safety sake, to create its own buffer zones and defense in depth.

Because of the population losses, the land grants to the survivors including the condemnation of the fleeing TL's, could be so large that will considerably increase the republic's franchise into the middle class, considerably changing the post war political landscape.

L

n7axw wrote:

SYED wrote:SAy they do break the main power and hold of the church, later on the republic could take over the border states, dohlar and silkiah just by themselves.
WIthout the backing and support of the church, those regions are not likely able to hold out against a republic out for revenge. Silkiah while belonging to desnair, they have lost most of their army and they have limited funds to create one truly able to fight the better armed units.
Dohlar is the only issue, but it seems likely that they will come through the war in an intact state. CHaris is sure to damage alot of their infrastructure to ensure the navy is properly broken down. The border states are not even a threat, they will have been drained dry by the battle, and unable to put up even minimal resistance.

I think you have this about right. After seeing to it that the Temple forces are cleared out of the area, there is no immediate need to pay much attention to the border states sinse they are unable to project power beyond their borders.

Silkiah, on the other hand, was one of those arrangements created by the church as a buffer between Siddarmark and Desnair mostly because it was uncomfortable with how successful Siddarmark had been in pushing Desnair back and was concerned about Siddarmarian designs on its own holdings. So Silkiah ended up more or less semi-independent, but still in a vassal relationship to Desnair. IIRC, the duchy was supposed to remain demilitarized. Silkiah's primary asset is its strategic location which makes it a hub of trade, esp. with Charis and the other out islands, and before the war quite wealthy.

I think you are right about Dohlar. It will survive and perhaps even thrive post war under good leadershp. In terms of both its military and its manufactorys Dohlar has been the church's most capable ally. I could see it becoming like a post war Germany.

I don't see Siddarmark becoming expansionist if for no other reason than they will have too much work to do in recovering from the sword of Shueler and the deprivations of the war.

Don

The langhorne canal is a key feature to the region, I can see the repulic seizing it. as one ogf the oldest canals in the world, it would be linked to the most developed locations. also logistically important if in the future, they want all the border states.

The church is the sole unifying force, with out it to unify the states and support them, they would be easy to deal with. Most of the church funding to the military industries have been harchong, desnair and dohlar, they never hd much industrial capacity to begin with.

While the desnair have lost alot, they are an empire with plenty of man power, so good chance they could cause trouble given time. best way is to linit their access by holding the land bridge. charis will help mess up coastal holdings. with their financial issues, might be better to see them flounder, then deal with therm

SYED wrote:The langhorne canal is a key feature to the region, I can see the repulic seizing it. as one ogf the oldest canals in the world, it would be linked to the most developed locations. also logistically important if in the future, they want all the border states.

The church is the sole unifying force, with out it to unify the states and support them, they would be easy to deal with. Most of the church funding to the military industries have been harchong, desnair and dohlar, they never hd much industrial capacity to begin with.

While the desnair have lost alot, they are an empire with plenty of man power, so good chance they could cause trouble given time. best way is to linit their access by holding the land bridge. charis will help mess up coastal holdings. with their financial issues, might be better to see them flounder, then deal with therm

So far Dohlar seems to have been the COGA's most effective ally. In addition to that, their population is large enough so they can regroup their losses given time. You don't want them behind you intact when you go after the Harchongese.

Don

n7axw wrote:
So far Dohlar seems to have been the COGA's most effective ally. In addition to that, their population is large enough so they can regroup their losses given time. You don't want them behind you intact when you go after the Harchongese.

Don

Agreed. However, I wouldn't want a nation that populated to turn into another Somalia either. Crushing them like grapes and then letting rot is a recipe for ensuring a gaping wound along that border with Siddermark as well as a large nest of pirates raiding the Gulf of Dohlar.

As much as reading about Dohlar rotting away appeals to me, I can't see either Cayleb nor Stohnahr letting that happen. They either invest the troops to keep Dohlar somewhat stable or they prop up leadership they can live with.

PeterZ wrote:

n7axw wrote:
So far Dohlar seems to have been the COGA's most effective ally. In addition to that, their population is large enough so they can regroup their losses given time. You don't want them behind you intact when you go after the Harchongese.

Don

Agreed. However, I wouldn't want a nation that populated to turn into another Somalia either. Crushing them like grapes and then letting rot is a recipe for ensuring a gaping wound along that border with Siddermark as well as a large nest of pirates raiding the Gulf of Dohlar.

As much as reading about Dohlar rotting away appeals to me, I can't see either Cayleb nor Stohnahr letting that happen. They either invest the troops to keep Dohlar somewhat stable or they prop up leadership they can live with.

Yep. I don't think they crush the social structures apart from getting rid of the inquisitors. Offer them a treaty that neutalizes them for the duration of the present war. Apart from making sure they can't rebuild fast enough to contribute to the COGA's current war effort, the allies have no reason to concern themselves with Dohlar. In fact it should be up to the Dohlarians themselves if they want to keep their king.

Don

Hi Don,

OTOH, the alliance is committed to freeing all the serfs, a rather considerable shift if not break of the previous social structures.

Cayleb and Stohnar must maintain their integrity on all these points or publicly lose that precious advantage.

Since Emerald and Chisholm evidently had a two year transition period, Dohlar may earn the same amount of time, if the alliance can freely monitor the progress.

What will be interesting is to see how the TL serfs feel about being liberated by the heretics.

We will see this played out again in the Border States, so there can be several variations.

If its as popular as it has been elsewhere, the CoGA might find itself in a bidding war of grating freedoms and privileges that abandons the old order to desperately win current support as theirs continues to crumble.

Granted that's not going to fly in Harchong, but due to the serf's illiteracy and ignorance, NTM the extent of the aristocrat and bureaucrat's control, it will take a great deal of time for that to percolate into Harchong in the first place.

When it does, watch out.

L

n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:*quote="n7axw"*

So far Dohlar seems to have been the COGA's most effective ally. In addition to that, their population is large enough so they can regroup their losses given time. You don't want them behind you intact when you go after the Harchongese.

Don*quote*

Agreed. However, I wouldn't want a nation that populated to turn into another Somalia either. Crushing them like grapes and then letting rot is a recipe for ensuring a gaping wound along that border with Siddermark as well as a large nest of pirates raiding the Gulf of Dohlar.

As much as reading about Dohlar rotting away appeals to me, I can't see either Cayleb nor Stohnahr letting that happen. They either invest the troops to keep Dohlar somewhat stable or they prop up leadership they can live with.

Yep. I don't think they crush the social structures apart from getting rid of the inquisitors. Offer them a treaty that neutalizes them for the duration of the present war. Apart from making sure they can't rebuild fast enough to contribute to the COGA's current war effort, the allies have no reason to concern themselves with Dohlar. In fact it should be up to the Dohlarians themselves if they want to keep their king.

Don

The Go4 will break before any of this happens.

Given the way the narrative has been going, I still see the Go4 folding sometime in the next two books, or even possibly at the culmination of this one. My long-shot guess relates to Harchong... they represent a huge destabilizer to the story with their numbers and apparent progress in producing state of the art weapons. The Mad Wizard has set up a powder keg situation there with an extremely downtrodden, numerically huge serf underclass that looks like it's going to suddenly find itself in possession of breachloading rifles and the training to use them. If a successful mutiny / revolution spreads and destabilizes Harchong, then the Go4 is toast.

I'm not sure where he takes it from here. Breaking the CoGA is simply not the current wars final objective.. it can't be yet. 99.999% of Safehold on BOTH SIDES of the war are absolutely convinced that the Church is the absolute, manifested house of God, with testimony and miracles aplenty to prove it. The public disagreement is with the current church leadership, not the church itself.

I still see a war resolution in the next book or two, followed by a cold war leading up to the return of the archangels with a time jump. I can't see DW writing civil war style battles back and forth across Haven and Howard for 20 more books until they come back.

SAy the alliance simply restores the border, the church would not survive a seige campaign, after all their effort in holy war. A seige allow time, for the alliance to build a force to take the fight to the temple lands.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

OTOH, the alliance is committed to freeing all the serfs, a rather considerable shift if not break of the previous social structures.

Cayleb and Stohnar must maintain their integrity on all these points or publicly lose that precious advantage.

Are you sure about that? I don't recall that being part of the publicly stated goals of the alliance, or even of Cayleb and Charis. It is part of their secret goals, sure, as a component of uplifting the entire race to high technology. But I don't believe they have made it an official public policy to free all serfs everywhere.

SWM wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

OTOH, the alliance is committed to freeing all the serfs, a rather considerable shift if not break of the previous social structures.

Cayleb and Stohnar must maintain their integrity on all these points or publicly lose that precious advantage.

Are you sure about that? I don't recall that being part of the publicly stated goals of the alliance, or even of Cayleb and Charis. It is part of their secret goals, sure, as a component of uplifting the entire race to high technology. But I don't believe they have made it an official public policy to free all serfs everywhere.

I agree that the goals aren't public. His actions to abolish that institution suggests that ceteris paribus, Cayleb will foster policies that lead to abolishing serfdom and slavery where ever he has authority to implement those policies. I believe that tendency of his will be noticed by anyone with eyes to see the dawn, ears to hear canon fire and a brain slightly more effective than porridge.

Will that by itself cause disruption to those societies forced to deal with Charis in the future? Perhaps.