Should Safeholdians say NO to Gbaba war?

After a long enough time that's true - assuming they allowed genetic drift to continue. But if their activities were being governed more and more by instinct, it means they're doing things a certain way because of a strong inner sense that this is how they should be done. The mere suggestion of doing them differently would be disturbing to them. You can see where this might lead to a genocidal mindset. If you don't look and think just like a Gbaba you're a hideous abomination that needs to die.

Anyway, I think a program to scan for and "correct" mutations in each generation would be very likely. If you've reached the pinnacle of perfection why would you want any further change? We're going to face a similar choice ourselves when we start colonizing other planets. Take Mars for instance. Humans born there would be taller and thinner and perhaps unable to tolerate earth's gravity. Every world we settle will create variations on the human form unless we use some combination of medicines and genetic engineering to keep it standardized to earth normal. We may decide to do that. A race as inflexible as the Gbaba absolutely would.

There may be one hand wave which makes this work (although it has some scary implications as well): the Gbaba have the Ansible.

For people who never read Ursula Le Guin; the Ansible is a communications device which allows instantaneous communications across any distance whatsoever. For her stories (like The Left Hand of Darkness), humanity travels the stars in slower than light ships which move at relativistic speeds, but can communicate instantly with each other (space travellers are alienated by relativity, though, being centuries removed from when they departed).

By having the ability to communicate instantly over the entire span of their Empire, the Gbaba can quite easily enforce conformity, or even send things like genetic templates to ensure there is no genetic drift across their domain. This also allows them to instantly recognize and react to incursions of their space by potential competitors, which may be why the Federation thought the Enemy ships were faster, and why the Gbaba could bring such overwhelming force to bear so quickly.

Without the Ansible, the Federation was always behind the information curve, and any reborn Federation could suffer the same fate as well.

Well, in OAR it was mentioned that the Federation has the Hypercom but Crestwell's World lacked one.

It is likely that the Hypercom is expensive so new colonies (like Crestwell's World) can't afford them.

According to Word Of Weber, the Hypercom can't be used by even the largest Starship.

IMO, it is highly unlikely that the Gbaba lacks their version of the Hypercom.

Thucydides wrote:There may be one hand wave which makes this work (although it has some scary implications as well): the Gbaba have the Ansible.

For people who never read Ursula Le Guin; the Ansible is a communications device which allows instantaneous communications across any distance whatsoever. For her stories (like The Left Hand of Darkness), humanity travels the stars in slower than light ships which move at relativistic speeds, but can communicate instantly with each other (space travellers are alienated by relativity, though, being centuries removed from when they departed).

By having the ability to communicate instantly over the entire span of their Empire, the Gbaba can quite easily enforce conformity, or even send things like genetic templates to ensure there is no genetic drift across their domain. This also allows them to instantly recognize and react to incursions of their space by potential competitors, which may be why the Federation thought the Enemy ships were faster, and why the Gbaba could bring such overwhelming force to bear so quickly.

Without the Ansible, the Federation was always behind the information curve, and any reborn Federation could suffer the same fate as well.

Weird Harold wrote:

ecortez wrote:A slowly progressing species that lives in a static culture for millions of years would end up having their brains gradually rewired by evolution, reinforcing that culture. If they spoke the same language long enough it's even possible their offspring would be born knowing how to speak it (and likely less capable of learning a new one than their distant ancestors).

That would work on a single planet, or on a few planets fairly close together where there could be constant cross-fertilization and minimal language drift.

Expand that to a huge interstellar empire and the only way you could maintain genetic consistency would be to centralize reproduction on a single Creche Planet.

Or just clone from genetic templates stored in such a way that time couldn't corrupt it (store a trillion copies and check them against each other to avoid e.g. cosmic ray hits changing bits of data). That could lead to identical results everywhere, as long as they all started from the same template.

Icarium wrote:No, even if the Gbaba are not expanding, Langhorne wasn't right. The evidence is apparent in the first novel. In spite of his controls, lots of things were slipping through the cracks like gunpowder, and it would just grow wider as time went on. It would take time. It would grow bloody. But eventually, Safehold would hit space.

And then, without the information from Merlin, it would be destroyed when it came upon the Gbaba again.

Right? Certainly not morally, given all the evil, lies and oppression involved.

But was the plan actually unworkable as Langhorne proposed it (IE - without Merlin's intervention)?

I really have trouble seeing how Safehold ever could have broken out of the mold without Merlin or an equivalent. Even with the Brethren, without Merlin and his technological gifts, Charis would have been militarily crushed and the Brethren discovered and destroyed by the Inquisition.

And even if that didn't happen -- say, if the Inquisition had gotten corrupt in a different way, so that it was willing to overlook anything for a bribe -- once they got to electricity, the OBS would smash them down and provide apparently absolute "proof" of God's opposition to the technology. (Assuming it's active, but I don't think it would be in the story otherwise.)

I know Shan-wei thought it was unworkable, but she isn't necessarily factually right just because she's a morally good character.

(Also, I really don't think what she says in the beginning of OAR about technological development being inevitable is true, looking at our history. Really methodical/scientific advancement only originated once in our history, in late-medieval/early-modern Europe. The classical Greco-Roman civilization had primitive steam engines, but didn't do anything with them. Dynastic China had small hot air balloons for signaling (Kongming lanterns) since like 200 BC, but never made a human-carrying version. I don't think that the classical Greco-Roman or dynastic Chinese civilizations would have gotten to space flight even if you gave them 10,000 years without a "fall".)

EDIT:

SWM wrote:As Drak said. As far as Merlin (and Shan-Wei before him) can tell based on what the Federation knew, the danger to Safehold is not from accidental detection by the Gbaba. It is the danger of Safehold eventually breaking from Langhorne's plan, developing technology, going into space, and accidentally running into the Gbaba without forewarning.

I don't entirely "get" this. The Federation was tiny on an interstellar scale, and Safehold is really far from Gbaba space. So for future Safeholdians to run into Gbaba by accident, they'd need a gigantic interstellar colonized area, which also means much more time interstellar and thus probably higher tech. So they'd probably squish the Gbaba, given how close the Federation apparently came.

I mean, it's obviously not a good risk to take with humanity at stake. It just seems odd that people in the books (Shan-wei, Merlin etc.) act like it's the likely outcome.

EDIT: "far from Gbaba space" not "far from Gbaba technology"

cralkhi wrote:But was the plan actually unworkable as Langhorne proposed it (IE - without Merlin's intervention)?

I really have trouble seeing how Safehold ever could have broken out of the mold without Merlin or an equivalent. Even with the Brethren, without Merlin and his technological gifts, Charis would have been militarily crushed and the Brethren discovered and destroyed by the Inquisition.

You need to pay more attention to Nahrman's analysis in Book 2 of why the attack on Charis was stupid. If Charis had been crushed, every world leader would recognize that the Church had become their primary enemy. They'd start plotting against the Church just to protect themselves and another rebelling nation would have been inevitable.

If the second nation is destroyed, or even a third, people are going to start noticing patterns. How long until some leader starts telling the Church "No" when ordered to destroy yet another nation? Why would they say no? Because they know that they could be next.

Cue a recap of the European religious wars with territory constantly switching between "Catholics" and "Protestants", so much so that eventually religious wars became discredited as a valid war and religion in general was discredited in many eyes.

What's happening in canon is happening faster than it would have otherwise, but it would have happened.

And even if that didn't happen -- say, if the Inquisition had gotten corrupt in a different way, so that it was willing to overlook anything for a bribe -- once they got to electricity, the OBS would smash them down and provide apparently absolute "proof" of God's opposition to the technology. (Assuming it's active, but I don't think it would be in the story otherwise.)

You're assuming the OBS will in fact autofire on signs of emerging electrical tech.

Even if it does, telescopes and math with Arabic Numerals (or a reinvention of a system like Arabic numerals) will likely spot the OBS system (they're supposedly "not hard to find") and likely will expose the falsehoods in the Holy Writ's astronomical models.

And once the Writ is proven to be WRONG about something, how long is its and the Church's moral authority (assuming it still has it) going to last?

(Also, I really don't think what she says in the beginning of OAR about technological development being inevitable is true, looking at our history. Really methodical/scientific advancement only originated once in our history, in late-medieval/early-modern Europe. The classical Greco-Roman civilization had primitive steam engines, but didn't do anything with them. Dynastic China had small hot air balloons for signaling (Kongming lanterns) since like 200 BC, but never made a human-carrying version. I don't think that the classical Greco-Roman or dynastic Chinese civilizations would have gotten to space flight even if you gave them 10,000 years without a "fall".)

We've been advancing constantly since the Stone Age, and even Safehold has been advancing. But for most of human history on both Earth and Safehold, the advances were slow and gradual. Gunpowder got introduced after all. Arabic-like numerals are likely to be invented as well, simply because the rules for it are built into the language; saying numbers follows a pretty distinct pattern once you get past 12.

Lots of little improvements here and there would have eventually exposed the Writ's falsehoods. It may not be as fast for Safehold as it was for us, but it WOULD have happened eventually.

The only way Langhorne's plan could have worked is if his setup could stop ALL change, prevent ALL improvements from ever being introduced (which even Langhorne was forced to admit was impossible). Prevent the Church's upper echelons from being corrupted by their own power and thus ignoring large swaths of the Writ that they're supposed to enforce.

IOW, in order for Langhorne's plan to work, he had to make Safehold civilization truly and totally unchanging... kinda like the Gbaba actually.

cralkhi wrote:

SWM wrote:As Drak said. As far as Merlin (and Shan-Wei before him) can tell based on what the Federation knew, the danger to Safehold is not from accidental detection by the Gbaba. It is the danger of Safehold eventually breaking from Langhorne's plan, developing technology, going into space, and accidentally running into the Gbaba without forewarning.

I don't entirely "get" this. The Federation was tiny on an interstellar scale, and Safehold is really far from Gbaba space. So for future Safeholdians to run into Gbaba by accident, they'd need a gigantic interstellar colonized area, which also means much more time interstellar and thus probably higher tech. So they'd probably squish the Gbaba, given how close the Federation apparently came.

I mean, it's obviously not a good risk to take with humanity at stake. It just seems odd that people in the books (Shan-wei, Merlin etc.) act like it's the likely outcome.

EDIT: "far from Gbaba space" not "far from Gbaba technology"

That might be true. But it is still a risk. And it still represents a failure of the Langhorne plan to keep Safehold from developing technology. If Safehold was inevitably going to develop technology (which I believe is true), why withhold the knowledge of a threat that could potentially wipe out the entire race? That's criminal. Langhorne chose a path which was doomed to failure, and which potentially endangers the race by keeping critical knowledge secret.

evilauthor wrote:

cralkhi wrote:But was the plan actually unworkable as Langhorne proposed it (IE - without Merlin's intervention)?

I really have trouble seeing how Safehold ever could have broken out of the mold without Merlin or an equivalent. Even with the Brethren, without Merlin and his technological gifts, Charis would have been militarily crushed and the Brethren discovered and destroyed by the Inquisition.

You need to pay more attention to Nahrman's analysis in Book 2 of why the attack on Charis was stupid. If Charis had been crushed, every world leader would recognize that the Church had become their primary enemy. They'd start plotting against the Church just to protect themselves and another rebelling nation would have been inevitable.

If the second nation is destroyed, or even a third, people are going to start noticing patterns. How long until some leader starts telling the Church "No" when ordered to destroy yet another nation? Why would they say no? Because they know that they could be next.

I agree up to this point, but...

Cue a recap of the European religious wars with territory constantly switching between "Catholics" and "Protestants", so much so that eventually religious wars became discredited as a valid war and religion in general was discredited in many eyes.

I don't think that would be the final result in Safehold's case. There's far too much "proof" of the Writ's accuracy and the Archangels' real historical existence. Post-medieval Europe didn't have a giant "miraculous" Temple that anyone could visit full of wonders beyond anyone's understanding.

Without Merlin or the Brethren, "Protestant" equivalents might have arisen, but I don't think it would ever get to the point of discrediting the Writ/religion as a whole. So the "Protestant" nations would still have the Proscriptions. Plus it's unlikely that a really innovative/scientific mindset would arise without Merlin/Brethren there to introduce it; Langhorne was too effective at getting rid of it IMO. So technologically, nothing would really change, even if it did politically.

And even if that didn't happen -- say, if the Inquisition had gotten corrupt in a different way, so that it was willing to overlook anything for a bribe -- once they got to electricity, the OBS would smash them down and provide apparently absolute "proof" of God's opposition to the technology. (Assuming it's active, but I don't think it would be in the story otherwise.)

You're assuming the OBS will in fact autofire on signs of emerging electrical tech.

As I say, if it's inactive it doesn't really have a role in the story.

Even if it does, telescopes and math with Arabic Numerals (or a reinvention of a system like Arabic numerals) will likely spot the OBS system (they're supposedly "not hard to find")

Spot? Quite possibly. Identify what they are? No way.

and likely will expose the falsehoods in the Holy Writ's astronomical models.

And once the Writ is proven to be WRONG about something, how long is its and the Church's moral authority (assuming it still has it) going to last?

That would not be easy at all. Especially as the Safehold system may not have bright visible planets -- when Merlin describes the Safeholdian version of the Ptolemaic model in OAR, he mentions the spheres of the moon, sun, and fixed stars -- but no planets.

And the moon really does revolve around Safehold.

With no outer planets for retrograde motion to require epicycles, and no Jupiter's moons to be easily spotted in a primitive telescope and clearly observed not to revolve around Earth, the Ptolemaic system would be a lot harder to overturn.

Also, the Writ pretty much explains all observations possible to make with primitive instruments, including seeing microbes with primitive microscopes. So if the Safehold system had an equivalent of Jupiter's moons, the Writ would explain them satisfactorily.

There's just no reason for Safeholdians to ever develop science without Merlin or the Brethren, since everything is already explained!

(Also, I really don't think what she says in the beginning of OAR about technological development being inevitable is true, looking at our history. Really methodical/scientific advancement only originated once in our history, in late-medieval/early-modern Europe. The classical Greco-Roman civilization had primitive steam engines, but didn't do anything with them. Dynastic China had small hot air balloons for signaling (Kongming lanterns) since like 200 BC, but never made a human-carrying version. I don't think that the classical Greco-Roman or dynastic Chinese civilizations would have gotten to space flight even if you gave them 10,000 years without a "fall".)

We've been advancing constantly since the Stone Age,

Not really, there have been rises and falls (Bronze age collapse, EDIT: fall of the Roman empire) and things just get abandoned (China's retreat from exploration after the time of Zheng He's treasure ships) or forgotten (Roman knowledge of steam in the Middle Ages, loss of fire-making in Tasmania*) or ignored (steam in the Roman Empire, hot air balloons in China, the wheel among the Maya).

Technology and infrastructure get lost as well as invented.

*EDIT: apparently that is disputed/possibly not true, but they did give up the use of bone tools

Gunpowder got introduced after all.

True, but without a scientific-revolution mindset, I don't think it would get far enough to change much.

I know Merlin mentions the whole gunpowder being the end of an aristocracy idea in OAR, but gunpowder and primitive guns existed in the late Middle Ages, gunpowder's older than full plate armor IIRC. Guns that were effective enough to change things are during or after the Scientific Revolution -- longbows were used even in the Tudor era.


I have to think the Brethren were involved on Safehold (not inventing it originally, but perfecting it); even as primitive as the pre-Merlin guns in OAR are, they're better than what Earth had 80 years after gunpowder was invented.

[qupte]Lots of little improvements here and there would have eventually exposed the Writ's falsehoods. [/quote]

Not really, because the Writ already explains everything that can be observed with primitive instruments. Langhorne and co. were smarter than that.

Hello my friends, how are you?

Ok to answer the question about this post, if humanity want to go extinct yeah they can say no to the gbaba war.

The big point that a lot of humans don't understand is that every person makes their own decisions, and some people are willing to back up those decisions with extreme force.

Even if you try and get away you may find yourself a victim of your own stupidity, for example a guy who is a pacifist may decide that he is going to go into the wilderness because he doesnt want contact with his fellow humans, still he will have to take measures against wild predators, depending where do you live, it may be bears, wolves, Pumas, panthers, serpents, etc etc. Meaning you need a way to deal with decisions made by other individuals who dont care about your decisions (a bear may decide to eat you and he will not care that you are a pacifist, or that same bear may decide you are a danger to its cubs and again he will not care that you are a pacifist).

So what I'm trying to say is that even if the gbaba never find the humans in safehold, the wise choice would be to get a very strong defensive measures to ensure that safehold can survive any kind of attack, maybe making more colonies and resources available is a good way of making humanity stronger, in the end the war with the gbaba is not going to be safehold vs the gbaba, it would be humanity vs gbaba, and humanity can colonize multiple worlds get technology and get other stuff to ensure they are big enough and strong enough.

Also trying to say we will keep ourselves weak so that we dont get attacked, its dumb, even if the gbaba dont attack you, what if another race come into the same solar system they see the planet and like it a lot and want to colonize it and exterminate that little plague of primates in its surface?.

One thing that we humans have a very hard time understanding is that pacifism is a luxury, and luxuries are not always useful.

In other words, other races will have their own choices to make, and if they decide to attack humans, they wont care if we are pacifist or not, if the other guy decide to attack you, you will need enough strenght to make him back off, and if he doesnt off you will need enough strenght to kill him, if you dont, you will die.

Running and hiding may be choices but what if you dont have anywhere to run or anywhere to hide, also what if by running or hiding you abandon the resources that would ensure our descendants could had had protection.

Ok to wrap up this post, I think that humans should develop as much tech as they can and have enough strenght to defend ourselves, because if any other race decide to kill us they will not care about our opinion.

I'm still trying to understand how Safehold could possible be able to say no to the Gbaba war. If the Gbaba arrive in orbit are they really likely to just go away if Safehold says 'not today, thank you'?

John Prigent wrote:I'm still trying to understand how Safehold could possible be able to say no to the Gbaba war. If the Gbaba arrive in orbit are they really likely to just go away if Safehold says 'not today, thank you'?

I think the point was that the original poster believes that the gbaba are unlikely to find Safehold unless humanity goes looking for the gbaba. The poster was suggesting that Safehold decide not to go looking, and just stay as far away as possible.