Safehold: Story line Speculation

Don,
I find your most recent comments resonate with my own views but I want to suggest that "North Harchong, Desnair and the Temple Lands being more resistive to change, centers of reaction, if you will."... maybe true of the leaders but not necessarily of the of the man on the street... especially with many returning vets.
I know David indicated that the leaders of North Harchong do not want the discharged troops to come back but 'you can't always get what you want'

You are right also, the jump from steam engine to steam turbines that generate electricity is not very large at all so, we could expect that genie to be out of the bottle very quickly...

"Merlin doesn't have to convince the whole planet of his point of view to meet his goal " again I agree but, tend to think in terms of 'what they don't know... won't hurt them'

So, if I were asked my 2¢ I would quietly move most of the R&D into space starting ASAP so that by the time the surprise is dealt with there would already be mounting support to allow a fleet to come to Safehold and show the hold outs why the Proscriptions and Langhorn were wrong.

But, I have been wrong before

C. O. Thompson wrote:Don,
I find your most recent comments resonate with my own views but I want to suggest that "North Harchong, Desnair and the Temple Lands being more resistive to change, centers of reaction, if you will."... maybe true of the leaders but not necessarily of the of the man on the street... especially with many returning vets.
I know David indicated that the leaders of North Harchong do not want the discharged troops to come back but 'you can't always get what you want'

You are right also, the jump from steam engine to steam turbines that generate electricity is not very large at all so, we could expect that genie to be out of the bottle very quickly...

"Merlin doesn't have to convince the whole planet of his point of view to meet his goal " again I agree but, tend to think in terms of 'what they don't know... won't hurt them'

So, if I were asked my 2¢ I would quietly move most of the R&D into space starting ASAP so that by the time the surprise is dealt with there would already be mounting support to allow a fleet to come to Safehold and show the hold outs why the Proscriptions and Langhorn were wrong.

But, I have been wrong before

You might convince someone that way, but most of the holdouts won't be rational or open to persuasion. That is what mhicks is right to point out. The point will instead be to prevent them from interfering and otherwise work around them.

You probably could move some R&D into space, given the reality that the OBS doesn't seem to react to the skimmers and shuttles that have been used so far... If you could arrange a location beyond the OBS to put it a small R&D community could be invaluable...perhaps even figure out how to neutralize the OBS.

After the OBS is dealt with, you want most of your scientific community on the ground because you want to expand scientific knowledge and its benefits as widely as possible, both in its pure and applied forms that overall, people benefit from those discoveries as their standard of living rises from the resulting industrialization that will happen as a consequence of applied tech. That, in turn, becomes the basis for a more widespread return to space and the support structure needed to support a space presence and eventually colonization and a space navy.

I think that it is in this last phase that Owl's database really comes into its own as trained Safeholden scientists use TF tech as a foundation to build upon and eventually transform until when humanity once again encounters the Gbaba, humanity will be in a position of superiority, both in numbers and technology.

Don

-

Before they head into space, I think the Inner Circle should set up a colony of members in an isolated location. Armageddon Reef or the Baren Lands would be good. Have their children be given NEATs, the interface and the full prolong treatment.They can have a full on R&D facility with a fabber far away from anyone who doesn't know the Truth. That distance lets them tell folks at a young age because there is no one to tell unless they leave.

Set up under ground shelters capable of surviving KEW strikes. Doing that quietly might take a while, but starting now means they get a head start before the Return. So, I guess I am saying it's time to rebuild what Alexandria was supposed to be; the seat of human knowledge.

I think Mhicks and my last post are considering different timescales. I started by talking about 'a generation or 2 after the reveal'. (The church I envisaged strongly discouraging Luddites at that time was the CoC, of course)

I am entirely with him on the idea that the time immediately post reveal will be bloody, chaotic and confusing. It is canon that Merlin expects a world wide conflict that will be much worse than the recently finished war. My comments assume the Inner Circle win that one too and take up a generation or so later. I find Mhicks comments confusing because he seems to compress time, jumping from the reveal right into preparations for the war with the Gbabba and how many will volunteer for it, without allowing for societal change in the intervening time.

In reality that war is not going to be a major driver for generations, in the sense that even on the most aggressive assumptions, it will be generations till anyone needs to go off and do any fighting.

When future generations of kids get the TF/Gbabba war footage delivered via their NEATs it will seem very close up and personal. ...

The extent to which the CoGA or any church will still be an influential force in society after the reveal wars is debatable and depends how RFC writes it. Where the CoC or similar 'offshoots' are influential, however, the healers v doctors, church schools v technical schools etc dilemmas won't exist, because the healers will be doctors, and the church schools will teach science.

Randomiser wrote:I think Mhicks and my last post are considering different timescales. I started by talking about 'a generation or 2 after the reveal'. (The church I envisaged strongly discouraging Luddites at that time was the CoC, of course)

I am entirely with him on the idea that the time immediately post reveal will be bloody, chaotic and confusing. It is canon that Merlin expects a world wide conflict that will be much worse than the recently finished war. My comments assume the Inner Circle win that one too and take up a generation or so later. I find Mhicks comments confusing because he seems to compress time, jumping from the reveal right into preparations for the war with the Gbabba and how many will volunteer for it, without allowing for societal change in the intervening time.

In reality that war is not going to be a major driver for generations, in the sense that even on the most aggressive assumptions, it will be generations till anyone needs to go off and do any fighting.

When future generations of kids get the TF/Gbabba war footage delivered via their NEATs it will seem very close up and personal. ...

The extent to which the CoGA or any church will still be an influential force in society after the reveal wars is debatable and depends how RFC writes it. Where the CoC or similar 'offshoots' are influential, however, the healers v doctors, church schools v technical schools etc dilemmas won't exist, because the healers will be doctors, and the church schools will teach science.

Yes, I did compress the time a bit to show how hard it will be for people getting the truth and the reveal to accept it all. The hopelessness they would feel knowing that all future generations will have to fight a war we almost lost once and have been trying to hide from for the last 1000 years is going to be hard to over come.
When the time arrives to colonize more worlds to increase population density and to get more resources and manufacturing... going forward to get more, more, more.
There will be many wondering WHY?
How do you get all of them excited to fight a war against a foe that has nearly destroyed you once and who you have little data about. They will have gone from ignorant bliss to hopeless bleak despair over night with the reveal.
Just getting back up to TF pre GBABA fleet sizes will take $$$, resources, and man power, many will be hesitant to give. Look at how hard it is to get congress to pass a budget for one year. It will take Safehold (and any colonies) many generations to get everyone on the same page and even then I only see 10% of entire population signing up for the GBABA war effort. I do not see the book arc ending any time soon. too much relearning by humanity needs to take place. Plus how do you give hope to people now that the religion they "knew was true" is all a lie. And how do you get people interested in progressing the species and increasing it to expand to other colonies with the end game being sending humans off to a war we are not sure we can win.
Once the truth is reveled and the OBS is gone the rest of the story will need to be Merlin and circle playing psychologist. A change of mind and thinking as a collective will be more important than developing weapons or anything else.

Fireflair wrote:Yes, there needs to be cultural change, I don't think anyone denies that and I did bring it up. My point was that there's nothing technology wise or production capability wise which limits Merlin and company from being in space post haste, if they choose.

They're smart enough to understand that they need to get people on Safehold thinking scientifically and to develop a mindset that encourages not just relying on 'magic' devices but thinking past them.

So the notion of a 100-200 year wait is probably pretty excessive. Once people get into the questioning mindset I think they can be pushed along fairly quickly. Remember that when the big reveal happens, even if Safehold has stepped into the 21st century, culturally and so forth, it's still going to be one hell of a shock.

And I stand by my last comment about the next arc dealing with the Gbaba. If they're to be dealt with in a reasonable arc of story time then the MWW won't be taking a couple hundred years to get them off the planet and into space.

This kind of change can happen incredibly rapidly. Look at Japan, which went from a roughly middle ages technology and society to essentially a fully modern society in less than two generations, and was able to militarily defeat a major power. I have literally worked with people whose grandparents lived a life essentially unchanged from the Edo period.

Hildum wrote:

Fireflair wrote:Yes, there needs to be cultural change, I don't think anyone denies that and I did bring it up. My point was that there's nothing technology wise or production capability wise which limits Merlin and company from being in space post haste, if they choose.

They're smart enough to understand that they need to get people on Safehold thinking scientifically and to develop a mindset that encourages not just relying on 'magic' devices but thinking past them.

So the notion of a 100-200 year wait is probably pretty excessive. Once people get into the questioning mindset I think they can be pushed along fairly quickly. Remember that when the big reveal happens, even if Safehold has stepped into the 21st century, culturally and so forth, it's still going to be one hell of a shock.

And I stand by my last comment about the next arc dealing with the Gbaba. If they're to be dealt with in a reasonable arc of story time then the MWW won't be taking a couple hundred years to get them off the planet and into space.

This kind of change can happen incredibly rapidly. Look at Japan, which went from a roughly middle ages technology and society to essentially a fully modern society in less than two generations, and was able to militarily defeat a major power. I have literally worked with people whose grandparents lived a life essentially unchanged from the Edo period.

Japan's cultural jump was pressurized by its desire to be able to compete militarily and in terms of social development wasn't very healthy. They ended up pretty militarized. After their defeat in WW2, they jumped to the other extreme. It's only been in the last generation or so that they have started to look a bit more normal.

Then too, they are a comparatively small, tightly knit society which is a possible factor in making rapid change possible. There are two possible questions here. The first is are they congruent enough with Safehold to make the example valid? The second is is what happened in Japan desireable and a good example for Safehold to follow?

My own answer to both questions would be no.

Don

-

PeterZ wrote:Before they head into space, I think the Inner Circle should set up a colony of members in an isolated location. Armageddon Reef or the Baren Lands would be good. Have their children be given NEATs, the interface and the full prolong treatment.They can have a full on R&D facility with a fabber far away from anyone who doesn't know the Truth. That distance lets them tell folks at a young age because there is no one to tell unless they leave.

Set up under ground shelters capable of surviving KEW strikes. Doing that quietly might take a while, but starting now means they get a head start before the Return. So, I guess I am saying it's time to rebuild what Alexandria was supposed to be; the seat of human knowledge.

Good idea... how about the Western Crown Demesne on the boarder of Chisholm and Raven Lands

Find the more remote spot and build a space port with Federation fabbers and university to begin the infrastructure though I would really build most of it far away from the orbital platform till it can be brought under ICN control.

C. O. Thompson wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Before they head into space, I think the Inner Circle should set up a colony of members in an isolated location. Armageddon Reef or the Baren Lands would be good. Have their children be given NEATs, the interface and the full prolong treatment.They can have a full on R&D facility with a fabber far away from anyone who doesn't know the Truth. That distance lets them tell folks at a young age because there is no one to tell unless they leave.

Set up under ground shelters capable of surviving KEW strikes. Doing that quietly might take a while, but starting now means they get a head start before the Return. So, I guess I am saying it's time to rebuild what Alexandria was supposed to be; the seat of human knowledge.

Good idea... how about the Western Crown Demesne on the boarder of Chisholm and Raven Lands

Find the more remote spot and build a space port with Federation fabbers and university to begin the infrastructure though I would really build most of it far away from the orbital platform till it can be brought under ICN control.

Doing it in an isolated spot deals with the issue of the local politics.

But it doesn't deal with the OBS. I'm not sure that you can find a spot on the planet's surface safe from the OBS unless you figure out how to control it. The instant the thing detected electricity, it would respond. As for shelters, I understand that the kenetic strikes took Armageddon Reef down to the bedrock.

Maybe you could create facilities under mountains like Nimue's cave, although with Safehold's current tech that might not be possible. The other thing that might work would be to use Merlin's orbital assult shuttle to get people off planet past the OBS and build a habitat on a moon or something. Assuming that the OBS's focus is directed at the planet, that might be safe.

Don

-

SNIP...Before they head into space, I think the Inner Circle should set up a colony of members in an isolated location. Armageddon Reef or the Baren Lands would be good. Have their children be given NEATs, the interface and the full prolong treatment.They can have a full on R&D facility with a fabber far away from anyone who doesn't know the Truth. That distance lets them tell folks at a young age because there is no one to tell unless they leave.

Set up under ground shelters capable of surviving KEW strikes. Doing that quietly might take a while, but starting now means they get a head start before the Return. So, I guess I am saying it's time to rebuild what Alexandria was supposed to be; the seat of human knowledge.



Good idea... how about the Western Crown Demesne on the boarder of Chisholm and Raven Lands

Find the more remote spot and build a space port with Federation fabbers and university to begin the infrastructure though I would really build most of it far away from the orbital platform till it can be brought under ICN control.

[/quote]

Doing it in an isolated spot deals with the issue of the local politics.

But it doesn't deal with the OBS. I'm not sure that you can find a spot on the planet's surface safe from the OBS unless you figure out how to control it. The instant the thing detected electricity, it would respond. As for shelters, I understand that the kenetic strikes took Armageddon Reef down to the bedrock.

Maybe you could create facilities under mountains like Nimue's cave, although with Safehold's current tech that might not be possible. The other thing that might work would be to use Merlin's orbital assult shuttle to get people off planet past the OBS and build a habitat on a moon or something. Assuming that the OBS's focus is directed at the planet, that might be safe.

Don

-[/quote]


It is the OBS that had me want to put the Inner Circle's build up efforts in space to begin with.

Merlin could take a lorry full of 'servitors' and a copy of OWL up to set the wheels in motion... build more servitors, do some mining, bring the raw materials down to the cave to build a fabber for the colony and set it on auto pilot for a decade or three.

This lets the humans ramp up for the defense and offensive recon missions.

A lot can be done to build a habitat/station before any air breathers move to the site.