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[Spoiler] The final chapter

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Re: [Spoiler] The final chapter
Post by Bosparan   » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:53 am

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DrakBibliophile wrote:Just to repeat something I said earlier, Charis can not hide the fact that Thirsk's family is still alive indefinitely unless they're hiding in Nimue's Cave.
That one is already out of the game, cave or no cave. They got shipped on a shooner, remember? Lots of sailors, impressionable kids ... no way could they keep their identities secret with that, especially without a briefing.
A secret is no more a secret when two people know it, they say. With a load of sailors knowing the tale ... well, let's just say unless they all forego all alcohol until the end of their days (uhm ... not likely) one of them is going to tell the tale, even if they promise to keep it hidden.

And when Clynthan hears it - which he probably will - then Thirsk has to be gone, however that will play out. Cause there's no way that Grand Fornicator will ever allow Thirsk to live with what he assumes to be hostages on Charis' side.


Regarding all those doubters about Thirsk getting circle'd:
One question: How will they explain Merlin's presence without that? With all the travel time he obviously didn't take I don't see them getting away without either ...
a) ... the full version
b) ... the "He's a Seijin and has a Whatchamcallit flying thingie" version
or
c) ... the Thirsk was dead drunk version (which would be an interesting sell imo ... ^^)

Cheers
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Re: [Spoiler] The final chapter
Post by evilauthor   » Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:44 am

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Bosparan wrote:[
Regarding all those doubters about Thirsk getting circle'd:
One question: How will they explain Merlin's presence without that? With all the travel time he obviously didn't take I don't see them getting away without either ...
a) ... the full version
b) ... the "He's a Seijin and has a Whatchamcallit flying thingie" version
or
c) ... the Thirsk was dead drunk version (which would be an interesting sell imo ... ^^)

Cheers


Given that Thirsk is an admiral and not a spy master, why should he be kept up to date on Merlin's public activities? He's (probably) not going to report Merlin's visit and Merlin likely doesn't make the news (as reported by the CoGA) often enough for Thirst to be aware of where he is on a given day (or five-day, or month...). After all, he hadn't heard anything about Iris and Davyn's rescue except for rumors until the Church gave the official story. Frankly, the day to day activities of Cayleb's bodyguard is completely irrelevant to Dohlaran Navy and the man who runs it.

So for all Thirsk knows, Merlin traveled to Dohlar by entirely conventional means. And unless Merlin pulls another epic stunt too soon AS Merlin, he's not going to learn any different from anyone who might have enough information to tell him so.
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Re: [Spoiler] The final chapter
Post by MWadwell   » Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:15 am

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n7axw wrote:
MWadwell wrote:"Adeon Hawkwood" wrote: I'm leaning towards the "organize a coup" option (against the Church, not necessarily against the King). I think that there's no way Thirsk would take service with Charis, his loyalty to his country is to strong for that.

He might be willing to seek asylum in Charis, but I think that would be a last resort for him since it would mean abandoning the officers and men of the Dohlaran Navy (and Clyntahn would probably do a major purge of the navy to be on the safe side if Thirsk defects).

Given that I can definitely see him organizing a coup to move Dohlar to at least a neutral stance.



I agree.

One thing that I think most people are missing, is that while the ICA has a HUGE military advantage, it also has a HUGE population disadvantage. As a result, trying to garrison captured nations is going to be a hinderance to the war effort.

As a result, I believe that part of Merlins plan is to "wean" nations away from the CoGA, and help them becoming reformists.


To do this, he needs people who are high up in the conquered nations political enviroment, who support the dissolution of the CoGA.

I think that Thirsk (and Alverez) fit that description, and are being "groomed" by Merlin (and co) to start the process of removing the CoGA dominance from Dohlar.


Hi Matt,

Good to see your post. I couldn't more wholeheatedly agree that the last thing that the EOC needs is to be spreading armies of occupation around, the possible exception being Zion and the Temple lands.

Where moving in on Dohlar might be helpful would be to get rid of the inquisition. That would be the complicating factor to getting Dohlar out of the war at the moment.

Don


G'Day Don,

I agree that the Temple lands needs to come under new management.

On Dohlar, part of the deal with them becoming Reformist, is that the Inquisitors are now NOT above the law. They injure someone, or are part of a conspiracy to injure someone - then it's a long drop from a short rope.....

That will help reduce the influence of the inquisition in Dohlar.... :twisted:
.

Later,
Matt
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Re: [Spoiler] The final chapter
Post by Annachie   » Tue Oct 20, 2015 6:44 am

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Personally I suspect the conversation will be along the lines of "No matter what happens your family is safe".
Honestly, little more needs to be said.

Thirsk will be primed to do what he thinks is best for Dohlar. Whether that is a coup or a prompt surrender.

Oh and maybe that his aid wasn't a spy, that he just claimed to be to protect Thirsk.

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You are so going to die. :p ~~~~ runsforcelery
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Re: [Spoiler] The final chapter
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:54 am

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Thirdly already knows his aide was no spy. The man didn't even duck when that aide shot him. Trust and high regard flowed both ways to the end.

Annachie wrote:Personally I suspect the conversation will be along the lines of "No matter what happens your family is safe".
Honestly, little more needs to be said.

Thirsk will be primed to do what he thinks is best for Dohlar. Whether that is a coup or a prompt surrender.

Oh and maybe that his aid wasn't a spy, that he just claimed to be to protect Thirsk.

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Re: [Spoiler] The final chapter
Post by Annachie   » Tue Oct 20, 2015 9:32 am

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I agree, but I bet it would still be nice to hear it.

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You are so going to die. :p ~~~~ runsforcelery
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
still not dead. :)
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Re: [Spoiler] The final chapter
Post by Randomiser   » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:41 am

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While it might be nice to imagine Thirsk pulling off a coup, I can't see it. Thirsk's status seems to be complex and, I think, misunderstood by many posters (possibly because they are too used to living in a democracy) The Navy thinks Thirsk is wonderful, the public, to some extent, think he is a naval hero. The political class, as evidenced by the royal council, think he is only an earl, has very little support among the people who matter, i.e. the politically minded aristocracy, and is only accepted on sufferance because the Navy is kind of needed just now. In a society like Dohlar, that is nowhere near enough political cover for a coup. Politically speaking, Ahlvahrez' situation is even worse, and he has much less grip on the Army than Thirsk has on the Navy. So I can't see a coup, even if his honour would allow it.

Readers know he had until spring MAX before Clyntahn arrested him, and that was when the Inquisition could threaten his family. Even a half-drunk Thirsk can work out that he is on borrowed time. So where is there anything beyond a very short term role for him in the navy if he stays? What could he do in that time? (NB no KH VIII's off Gorath till August or so now.)

Besides I just can't imagine how he could be head of the RDN and do deals with Charis about early surrender. Can anyone say, 'conflict of interest'? Even the ghost of his honour would have to be howling about that one.

The most obvious thing would be him agreeing to go off into a quiet family retirement somewhere in Charis. Again I can't see him working for Charis, nor would it be proper to give him a powerful command. Merlin getting in is easy to handwave away as unspecified Seijin abilities Thirsk has no right to ask for an explanation of. Getting Thirsk out, should he choose to go, without inducting him at least partway to the Truth is more difficult. Easiest thing might be to drug him with the TF coldsleep prep thingy and keep him under till he wakes up a suitable time later on a boat about to dock at Claw Island. That takes a lot of trust on his part (or playing a drinking game with Merlin!)

Of course RFC, may he reappear here soon, is much more inventive than me and probably has something entirely credible and much more interesting in mind. That's why he writes the books and I just read 'em! :D
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Re: [Spoiler] The final chapter
Post by Adeon Hawkwood   » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:07 pm

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Bosparan wrote:
DrakBibliophile wrote:Just to repeat something I said earlier, Charis can not hide the fact that Thirsk's family is still alive indefinitely unless they're hiding in Nimue's Cave.
That one is already out of the game, cave or no cave. They got shipped on a shooner, remember? Lots of sailors, impressionable kids ... no way could they keep their identities secret with that, especially without a briefing.

I think you're overestimating information gathering in a pre-technical society. Yes, the sailors on the ship will know that they picked up someone (although probably not exactly who) and yes some of them will probably mention it to other people and in time it might even come to ears of an inquisition agent. But when it does it'll just be a rumor that a Charisian ship picked up some people in a fishing boat, with very little hard info on dates and locations. Chances are the inquisition will just file it as an irrelevant rumor and forget about it along with their collection of rumors about the face of Langhorne appearing in someone's toast.

It's the problem any intelligence agency has, you don't have the manpower to chase down every rumor or random story so you have to prioritize. Since the Inquisition "knows" that Thirsk's family is dead they are very unlikely to connect a rumor they hear months later with their disappearance.

It's possible that some clever inquisitor will hear the rumor with enough accuracy to match the dates but I would say that the odds are low. So long as Charis stashes them somewhere out of sight (a remote villa in the country somewhere) and makes sure that the staff are trustworthy then they can probably keep them off the inquisition's radar at least long enough to win the war.

Plus of course if the inquisitor who figures it out is outside the Temple there's a decent chance of the SNARCs picking it up in time for Merlin to kill him.
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Re: [Spoiler] The final chapter
Post by Alcatraz   » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:05 pm

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My guess is Merlin is there to tell Thirsk of his family and tell him Gorath is about to be visited by battleships, so he might want to save his navy.
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Re: [Spoiler] The final chapter
Post by Bosparan   » Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:26 am

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Adeon Hawkwood wrote:
I think you're overestimating information gathering in a pre-technical society. Yes, the sailors on the ship will know that they picked up someone (although probably not exactly who) and yes some of them will probably mention it to other people and in time it might even come to ears of an inquisition agent. But when it does it'll just be a rumor that a Charisian ship picked up some people in a fishing boat, with very little hard info on dates and locations. Chances are the inquisition will just file it as an irrelevant rumor and forget about it along with their collection of rumors about the face of Langhorne appearing in someone's toast.

It's the problem any intelligence agency has, you don't have the manpower to chase down every rumor or random story so you have to prioritize. Since the Inquisition "knows" that Thirsk's family is dead they are very unlikely to connect a rumor they hear months later with their disappearance.

It's possible that some clever inquisitor will hear the rumor with enough accuracy to match the dates but I would say that the odds are low. So long as Charis stashes them somewhere out of sight (a remote villa in the country somewhere) and makes sure that the staff are trustworthy then they can probably keep them off the inquisition's radar at least long enough to win the war.

Plus of course if the inquisitor who figures it out is outside the Temple there's a decent chance of the SNARCs picking it up in time for Merlin to kill him.
First, I doubt the sailors will not know exactly who their transportees are. It's a small ship with precious little privacy. People talk, especially kids and curious sailors - which probably quite a few of them are, given that they chose naval service - will get a kid to talk.
This means that likely that tale will contain names ...

Either way, if I were an inquisition manager with the task of spying on the enemy navy - especially under the current constraints - what I'd do is place my isolated agents in sailor's taverns in port cities. Perfect to actually talk with the people out there doing the things, and with a 'little' help from alcohol and skillful guidance of the conversation you can get a lot of context from a sailor (especially where date and location is concerned). It's virtually impossible to detect that kind of thing either - sailors in a tavern carousing and telling tales? How conspicious - and given the location you can setup a direct message connection out of the empire fairly easily (Sailors carrying letters to the lover of a stranded fellow? Not exactly unusual either, given the literacy levels in Charis).

Then there's the bragging rights involved in the story. "Hey, imagine that, last month we went and rescued the enemy high admirals' family from his own inquisition!" I'd imagine some sailors would be telling that story a bit louder than what would be prudent :)

So yes, I think it's highly likely the inquisition will hear about the story. Either way, all parties can't assume it won't (though it would probably take a while, given simple travel time).

On the other hand, yes, if they can keep the identities hidden and stash them away somewhere, then the inquisition has almost no chance to find them.
On the other hand, do they want to do that? Consider the propaganda value of advertising their presence (and safety):
- "We'll take in all refugees with honor, even the close family of enemy admirals"
- "We can free high-profile prisoners from the inquisition, even from right in front of their own shores"
The first one would be especially effective for the honor-over-faith kind of people (e.g.: Thirsk and - probably - Alvarez).

most people wrote:
He'd never consider abandoning his country
While still most of you argue he wouldn't abandon his kingdom, remember, he already considered doing so when offered position 2 in the Tarot navy after the Armageddon Reef fiasko. If memory serves, it was only his family that kept him from picking up the offer either, let's see ...

By Shism Rent Asunder wrote:
Under the circumstances, Thirsk had actually seriously considered the invitation from Baron White Ford to stay on in Tarot as the second-in-command of the Tarotisian Navy.

If it hadn't been for his family, he probably would have, he admitted to himself now.
One of the thing most people don't really understand on an emotional level - even though the author explicitly explains it in the case of Corisande some books later - loyalties in a feudal system tend to be very personal. Thirsk's loyalty was to his king, not to the kingdom of Dohlar. Charisians are untypical in that they think of themselves as Charisians first and subjects of whatever local lord only third or so ...
I think we can by now safely assume that loyalty is long buried, so what kept Thirsk in line? Well, I'd assume a combination of three things:
- Inertia (never underestimate it)
- Threat to family
- Honor. His loyalty might have been spent, but that doesn't change the fact that he gave his word when he swore loyalty to the king (which would probably what every officer needs to do, never mind an earl).

Factor one is already out thanks to the inquisition (there will be change). Factor two just got taken out and I really disbelieve that factor three is enough to make him stay and take the shitstorm that's coming his way.

Cheers,
Bosparan

Edit:
Oh hell, while I'm at it, here's the quote regarding the loyalties:
A Mighty Fortress wrote:
There really weren't all that many Corisandian "patriots," in the sense that someone from the millennium-dead Terran Federation might have understood the term. Loyalties in most Safeholdian realms — there were exceptions, like Charis and the Republic of Siddarmark — tended to be purely local. Loyalties to a specific baron, or earl, or duke, perhaps. Or to a prince, or an individual monarch. But not to the concept of a "nation" in the sense of a genuine, self-aware nation-state.
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