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KEW for Charis

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Re: KEW for Charis
Post by runsforcelery   » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:35 am

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abrax894 wrote:
evilauthor wrote:One more thing!

The idea of trying to love tap your way past the Temple's armor seems to be based entirely on the assumption that the Temple WON'T REACT to an attack that threatens its integrity (ie, "the Tank won't shoot back if I shoot it"). However, Merlin's entire decision making process about the Temple assumes the Temple WILL react if it detects anything that could be considered a threat. Threats like SNARCs and Merlin's mere presence would be far below the threat level of even a love tap bombardment.

If Merlin starts assuming the Temple WON'T react to a love tap bombardment, then what's stopping him from walking in through the Temple's front door and killing whoever he pleases? If the Temple isn't going to react to an attack, there's no need to try to punch through its armor at all.


I'll respond to the last 2 posts. First, the rifle comment. Umm, I'm not talking about using a an ar15 firing a 5.56 round at an MBT, I'm talking about using .50 cal plus anti-materials rifle with specially designed rounds to penetrate the armor. The KEW's would be designed, probably from battle steal, to PENETRATE, like the difference between between a rapier vs broadsword or claymore. A nuke is very similar to the broadsword. You are depending on the shock wave and heat to do you destructive damage and it would take something very big to do the kind of damage you would need to destroy a hardened bunker. But you're not depending on the shock wave to do you damage, you using the direct kinetic energy transfer onto the outer shell to do your damage. A number of smaller, consecutive hit on the same area in quick succession.

As for the Temple defending itself, go back and read my previous comments on that topic. I'm actually assuming that the temple HAS point defense, which is why, once again, it will be made of a material that will be resistant to that damage and traveling at a speed that will minimize it's engagement window.

This post has become most repetitive and has gone far afield of where I wanted it to go.


The main problem with the proposals to take out the Temple is that you can't "erode" the armor. The amount of kinetic energy required to do appreciable damage to the armorplast protecting it is a . . . nontrivial number. Even assuming that Merlin possessed sufficient space going capability to loft the number of penetrators you seem to be proposing, he'd have to be able to guarantee hitting exactly the same spot repeatedly to "chip away" at the armor, and each impact — assuming he was going to be able to get through at all — would be the equivalent of a ground burst kiloton-range explosion. The consequences of that for the citizens of Zion would be significant and result in very high civilian death tolls, unless it was possible for her to somehow warn the citizens of the city to evacuate.

Further, however, you need to look at Nimue's description of the Temple from Off Armageddon Reef Reef.

nimue alban on page 68 wrote:
It was ridiculous. She'd seen planetary-defense command bunkers which had been flimsier than the Temple, and she wondered which brilliant lunatic had decided to plate that silver dome in armorplast? It looked as if the plating was at least seven or eight centimeters thick, which meant it would have been sufficient to stop an old, pre-space forty-centimeter armor-piercing shell without a scratch. It seemed just a little excessive as a way to keep the dome and that ludicrous statue of Langhorne bright and shiny.


She isn't saying that the armorplast is what makes it less flimsy than "planetary-defense command bunkers" which she'd seen. Planetary defense bunkers are designed to sneer at mere 16" (well, 15.8") armor-piercing shells. They are designed to stand up to high megaton-range bunker busters. The Temple as a whole is built to that standard of toughness; the armorplast coating of the dome (as Nimue's own reflection make clear, I thought) is to permanently and miraculously preserve the brilliant polish of the Temple's dome and Langhorne's statute. Even assuming that she could take down the dome without totally flattening Zion (which, to be fair, she probably could do, although she'd still inflict significant collateral damage), all she'd manage to do would be to piss off whatever might be hiding under the dome in the basement of that "planetary-defense command bunker" she's talking about.

Now, even if all she needed to do was to knock down the dome, and even if she was able to accomplish that with "only" the equivalent of a Hiroshima or Nagasaki-level explosion at an altitude of less than 200 feet, she would kill a whole big bunch of Zionites. If you'll go back and look at her reflections on this very matter, she knows that she could take out the aboveground portions of the Temple anytime she wanted to, although it might require a suicide run on someone's part to get the nuke onto the Temple's grounds. Unfortunately, unless she could get her device into the Temple/bunker's basement, she couldn't take out the entire facility. And even if she managed that, she and the "good guys" would have to explain to the survivors why they detonated a megaton-range device in the middle of the largest city on Safehold. The death toll would be horrendous, and the initial assumption of virtually all Safeholdians would be that Shan-wei had finally managed to escape hell and destroy the Temple. Surely only the Queen of Hell would be willing to murder tens of thousands of people to destroy the structure! So when Charis announced that it had destroyed the Temple — "We had to destroy the village to save it" — who do you think the Temple Loyalists would decide Charis had been serving all along?

And, of course, there's also the question of what the bombardment system would do. Best case scenario, it would do nothing . . . which would mean that Merlin and his friends would still have no way of knowing what its on board instructions might be. Worst-case scenario, it would take the explosion of a nuclear device on the planetary surface as an indication that someone had managed to build a very high level of technological capability without its sensors detecting them, in which case its instruction hierarchy might call for the systematic destruction of every major population center in order to get whoever had so thoroughly violated the Proscriptions. There are all sorts of other Really Bad possible outcomes between those two extremes, and Merlin and the inner circle have absolutely no way to guess which Really Bad Thing might happen.

You have to remember that the Temple may be the central command and control node for the bombardment system. It may not be, however, and even if it is, the system could well contain a Doomsday Protocol or some sort of deadman's switch.

In short, there is no way — from either the bloodbath quotient perspective or the "we don't know what would happen" perspective — that Merlin/Nimue would even contemplate some sort of frontal assault on/bombardment of the Temple unless there was literally no other conceivable alternative.


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Re: KEW for Charis
Post by n7axw   » Sat Aug 23, 2014 7:36 pm

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If I am reading this right, it's the temple as a whole that's built to that level of toughness. That would mean not only shell, but interior walls, floors, etc.

If so, whew... you're not gonna knock that thing down overnight with a sledge hammer! Rats! :lol:

Don
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Re: KEW for Charis
Post by evilauthor   » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:18 pm

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n7axw wrote:If I am reading this right, it's the temple as a whole that's built to that level of toughness. That would mean not only shell, but interior walls, floors, etc.

If so, whew... you're not gonna knock that thing down overnight with a sledge hammer! Rats! :lol:

Don


Don't forget that the ENTIRE above-ground Temple complex is basically ablative (or not so ablative) shielding for whatever is in the basement.

And that what is in the basement may not necessarily be what controls the OBS. The post-Langhorne "Archangels" may have set up their own version of Nimue's Cave as their REAL control center and left the Temple out in the open as bait for anyone else who might have WMDs tucked away.
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Re: KEW for Charis
Post by Earldrygulch   » Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:13 pm

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Even though you're talking about technology possibly less than Federation tech, you still talk about technology much higher than current Safehold tech.

If a fleet just disappears between point A and point B and the only people who knew how it was done are not going to be talking to anybody but God, does it make a difference how far in advance of Safehold tech it is? Excepting, of course, anything that would trigger the OBS. Merlin has done this in small scale already. If erasing an enemy force without a trace would save lives overall, then it should be done. Remember Merlin's guilt feelings over all the deaths?

I know that the ultimate goal is to make Safeholdians think for themselves, but the dead do very little thinking.
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Re: KEW for Charis
Post by n7axw   » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:21 pm

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evilauthor wrote:
n7axw wrote:If I am reading this right, it's the temple as a whole that's built to that level of toughness. That would mean not only shell, but interior walls, floors, etc.

If so, whew... you're not gonna knock that thing down overnight with a sledge hammer! Rats! :lol:

Don


Don't forget that the ENTIRE above-ground Temple complex is basically ablative (or not so ablative) shielding for whatever is in the basement.

And that what is in the basement may not necessarily be what controls the OBS. The post-Langhorne "Archangels" may have set up their own version of Nimue's Cave as their REAL control center and left the Temple out in the open as bait for anyone else who might have WMDs tucked away.


This is a thought... but an even scarier scenario would be if Lanhorne's flagship is not gone after all, but just lurking out there in orbit beyond the OBS with AIs controlling both ship and OBS. Nothing either Safehold or Merlin has would be able to even get at it, let alone destroy it. And that is if they could find it.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: KEW for Charis
Post by evilauthor   » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:04 am

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Earldrygulch wrote:Even though you're talking about technology possibly less than Federation tech, you still talk about technology much higher than current Safehold tech.

If a fleet just disappears between point A and point B and the only people who knew how it was done are not going to be talking to anybody but God, does it make a difference how far in advance of Safehold tech it is? Excepting, of course, anything that would trigger the OBS. Merlin has done this in small scale already. If erasing an enemy force without a trace would save lives overall, then it should be done. Remember Merlin's guilt feelings over all the deaths?

I know that the ultimate goal is to make Safeholdians think for themselves, but the dead do very little thinking.


Except of course, fleets DON'T wholly disappear like that. Even in OAR with a fleet of coastal galleys undertaking long range blue water voyages they were never designed for sailing into storms they were never intended to weather with a complete hack in overall command, said fleet suffered damage but ultimately only lost a few ships. If Cayleb hadn't intercepted them, survivors would certainly have reached their destination even if they had run into every storm and hurricane in their way.

In short, there's no way to explain an entire fleet just vanishing without fighting a battle except by supernatural means. One or two ships, yes, but not whole fleets!

Not to mention that "cheating" doesn't help Merlin's overall goal of getting Safehold into an innovating mindset. Necessity is the mother of invention after all, and there's no necessity if any and all innovations are rendered moot by advanced technology that no Safeholdian can hope to match.

If Merlin were to cheat in that manner, it'd be like someone who espouses free market competition being good for an economy while using underhanded methods to make sure he locked the market down with his own personal monopoly and strangle out any competition.
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Re: KEW for Charis
Post by DrakBibliophile   » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:16 am

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Plus, David Weber has said that Merlin has always intended that the Truth will come out, including what he had done behind the scenes.

He can rightfully state that some of his actions, like the slaughter of the people manning the Church's communications stations, are justified in times of war.

His killing of the Inquisitors can be justified by the actions of the Inquisitors in question.

But destroying an entire fleet would be harder to justify to himself and the relatives of the fleet's officers & crew.


evilauthor wrote:
Earldrygulch wrote:Even though you're talking about technology possibly less than Federation tech, you still talk about technology much higher than current Safehold tech.

If a fleet just disappears between point A and point B and the only people who knew how it was done are not going to be talking to anybody but God, does it make a difference how far in advance of Safehold tech it is? Excepting, of course, anything that would trigger the OBS. Merlin has done this in small scale already. If erasing an enemy force without a trace would save lives overall, then it should be done. Remember Merlin's guilt feelings over all the deaths?

I know that the ultimate goal is to make Safeholdians think for themselves, but the dead do very little thinking.


Except of course, fleets DON'T wholly disappear like that. Even in OAR with a fleet of coastal galleys undertaking long range blue water voyages they were never designed for sailing into storms they were never intended to weather with a complete hack in overall command, said fleet suffered damage but ultimately only lost a few ships. If Cayleb hadn't intercepted them, survivors would certainly have reached their destination even if they had run into every storm and hurricane in their way.

In short, there's no way to explain an entire fleet just vanishing without fighting a battle except by supernatural means. One or two ships, yes, but not whole fleets!

Not to mention that "cheating" doesn't help Merlin's overall goal of getting Safehold into an innovating mindset. Necessity is the mother of invention after all, and there's no necessity if any and all innovations are rendered moot by advanced technology that no Safeholdian can hope to match.

If Merlin were to cheat in that manner, it'd be like someone who espouses free market competition being good for an economy while using underhanded methods to make sure he locked the market down with his own personal monopoly and strangle out any competition.
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Re: KEW for Charis
Post by Caliban   » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:49 am

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Hi, all...

IIRC,Heinlein posited just such a series of strikes in 'The Moon is a Harsh Mistress'. As one of the characters in the story said,"hit anything hard enough,(you'll) strike sparks." No radiation, but one godawful amount of heat and concussive damage. The projectile of choice in this case was a steel cylinder loaded with around 100 tons of rock, flipped over the 'curb' of the earth's gravity well at 11 m/s.

A series of such strikes turned Cheyenne mountain into a crater, with concomitant damage to the surrounding real estate. I seem to recall the Temple's shell as being armorplast over BS (could very well be wrong here, happens often enough :roll:)which would mean that godrod/titanium phone pole/flying crowbar penetrator type weapon not withstanding that energy would have to go somewhere, probably vaporizing Zion with a huge amount of civilian casualties.

And the flash was visilbe from the lunar surface without any sort of magnification necessary. I would tend to think that the OBS would notice something like that.

I do like the idea of mines, but do agree that it would well nigh impossible to catch all the ships in a detachment with 'em. Now, as a defensive option (say in the Throat),well, that would be entirely possible. :twisted:
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Re: KEW for Charis
Post by DrakBibliophile   » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:55 pm

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Good point about what happened in Mistress. :D

As for marine mines, even Charisian designed marine mines have been "taken off the table" as far as weapons that Charis might develop.

The problem is that almost anything Charis could design, the Church could copy and marine mines are a defensive weapon.

Charis doesn't need marine mines (the Throat already has plenty of defenses) and those marine mines could be used against the Charisian Navy when they are the attacking force.

While Merlin and the Inner Circle want everybody to think about developing new ideas, they don't see the need of introducing a weapon system Charis doesn't need and could be used against Charis. :D


Caliban wrote:Hi, all...

IIRC,Heinlein posited just such a series of strikes in 'The Moon is a Harsh Mistress'. As one of the characters in the story said,"hit anything hard enough,(you'll) strike sparks." No radiation, but one godawful amount of heat and concussive damage. The projectile of choice in this case was a steel cylinder loaded with around 100 tons of rock, flipped over the 'curb' of the earth's gravity well at 11 m/s.

A series of such strikes turned Cheyenne mountain into a crater, with concomitant damage to the surrounding real estate. I seem to recall the Temple's shell as being armorplast over BS (could very well be wrong here, happens often enough :roll:)which would mean that godrod/titanium phone pole/flying crowbar penetrator type weapon not withstanding that energy would have to go somewhere, probably vaporizing Zion with a huge amount of civilian casualties.

And the flash was visilbe from the lunar surface without any sort of magnification necessary. I would tend to think that the OBS would notice something like that.

I do like the idea of mines, but do agree that it would well nigh impossible to catch all the ships in a detachment with 'em. Now, as a defensive option (say in the Throat),well, that would be entirely possible. :twisted:
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Re: KEW for Charis
Post by abrax894   » Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:04 pm

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All, excellent points. I'm in the middle of reading MTaT atm and it's funny that Nimue did bring up the temple again and it's armoring. More detail was put into what it could and could not withstand. I was working, when I first posted this, that BS was the outer shell, with some 'lighter' armor on the outside as something of an all around weather coating. Protects from anything short of a direct attack. But, DW went in to a lot more detail about the actual temple/bunker itself and yes, I would conclude that my initial supposition about multiple small KEW strikes might not be sufficient, especially if they put more armor underneath the temple, I hadn't considered that before.

I'm not gonna bother with discussing the possibility anymore because it wasn't my main point. As for the rest, I understand where you all are coming from with modern tech stuff, but the loss of life debate is something that has been going on for a very long time. With the 'fleet disappearances' I'll make these points: First, you said that everything would come out in the end, granted, however, WHEN that would come out would be after the war was over, probably YEARS after. Second, when this information came out, as it stands, don't you think Merlin is going to be questioned heavily and why he didn't stop or at the very least, even the odds a bit in favor of Charis during certain operations? Especially when those operations resulted in massive CHARISIAN casualties? Given a choice, I would be picking my allies lives to save vs those of my enemy, and you will have to face your allied FAMILIES when this information comes out too. While the enemy families may be upset that you used some of this tech to defeat them, it IS war. Your allies on the other hand would have a legitimate complaint. Sometimes things ARE unavoidable with the limitations that are in place, but sometimes direct actions could be carried out, both at sea, out of site of EVERYONE. Hell, even on land, a small detachment could play merry hell with the enemy behind the lines. Guerrilla tactics have been the bane of every large standing army since forever. Hit and fade strikes, sew fear amongst your enemies and that detachment could be vetted heavily before introducing them to new weapons, nothing to raise eyebrows but enough to give them a decisive advantage in the field. On the sea, it is much easier, we've already, multiple times in fact, that CoG fleets have a hard enough time staying within site of one another, much less in any kind of formation. Someone wanders off, and they disappear, a detachment sets out to make rendezvous with the rest of the fleet and they never make it. It's selective and you don't use it ALL the time. The overall strategic picture remains relatively the same, but you're giving your allies just a bit more of an edge, not to mention a morale boost. Given the choice between saving the lives of my enemies and saving the lives of my allies, I'll take my allies thanks. Sometimes there isn't anything you can do, but when there is, yes I think it should be taken. You may say that Merlin already does that but, I've seen a number of opportunities that were passed up because it would be hard to explain. That, in my mind, would be a good thing. Not knowing what happened to a ship squadron, or a guard detachment, they just disappear, THAT is scary. It takes weeks, if not months to move from one place to another, whether your talking about land or sea, it would be at least that long till those groups are reported missing. There is no telling what happened, where it happened, or if it was natural or they just ran afoul of someone with a bigger force. The point is, you disguise your more advanced weapons/explosives to LOOK like their current, or very close to current tech level (lets face it, they aren't more than 3-4 generations away from semi-auto weapons anyway). The way you employ those weapons is key. The ability of Charis to progress down this line so quickly (Manticore anyone?) is what is allow them to, at the very least, break even with, and in most cases win, every battle they have been in, with few exceptions. The enemy is already used to coming up against 'New Charisian weapons', what's one or two more.
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