Should Safeholdians say NO to Gbaba war?

SWM wrote:

Alistair wrote:Langhornes plan could/would work because the archangels are coming back in 20 years and they have an insurance policy in place (KEW).

Whether his plan should work is another question of course!

You are leaping to conclusions in the absence of evidence.

First, we don't know what the return of the Archangels means. It does not necessarily mean that the "returned Archangels" will be in a position to actually change things if the plan is going awry. For instance, if it is just a hologram recording, it won't be able to physically do anything (though it might change mental attitudes). For that matter, we don't even know that the return of the Archangels was intended to bolster Langhorne's plan--there have been suggestions on this forum that it was a backstop plan by doubters.

Second, we only know that the Archangels will return after 1000 years. What about in 2000? 3000? Will the Archangels be returning for the next 10,000 years? Eventually, innovation is certain to rise; Safehold will either reach space or die in one disaster or another.

Third, we don't know that the KEW is actually active. Merlin is acting on the assumption that it is active and under orders to act independently, but he (and we) does not know that for certain. We don't know what orders it has, if any.

Fourth, even if it is active and would strike down any detected high-technology, we don't know what its limits are. Will it survive another 1000 years? 10,000? Has it already broken down? Are there circumstances where technology could arise that it doesn't detect in time?

Fifth, you are assuming that the KEW can stop incipient technological revolutions before it gets out of control. What if innovation and technology spread so far and so fast that the KEW cannot stop it without destroying large portions of the population? Will it do that? The extinction of Safehold is just as much a failure of Langhorne's plan to save the human race as the rise of a space-going technology would be.

The return of the Archangels and the KEW are not the guarantees of the perpetual success of Langhorne's plan that you think they are.

The Rankora (KEW) system was active enough to destroy any probe/drone Merlin tried to send out to it to check up on it. So the defense aspect of the orbiting KEW is working. With that, there's good reason to assume that the rest of it is working too even though it hasn't been used in hundreds of years. Until Merlin sent out the probes, the defense part hadn't probably ever been used either except for shooting the occasional asteroid/meteorite. If the maintenance systems can keep that running, there's nothing to assume that they couldn't keep the bombardment part of it in functional order either.

What Merlin and the circle know is that there's something under the Temple and that something will be 'waking' to check on the world in a few decades/hundreds of years. It could be several PICAs or 'Archangels' in hibernation. The last one is the more likely option imo since the only PICA that was sent with the colony we knew of was the one that became Merlin. Unless Langhorne had a bunch listed and shipped in as something else, the odds of it being another PICA is kind of low I think. It's far more likely some of the surviving 'Archangels' set up several hibernation units for them so they could check up on their descendants, and play God without anyone else around.

Zakharra wrote:

SWM wrote:You are leaping to conclusions in the absence of evidence.

First, we don't know what the return of the Archangels means. It does not necessarily mean that the "returned Archangels" will be in a position to actually change things if the plan is going awry. For instance, if it is just a hologram recording, it won't be able to physically do anything (though it might change mental attitudes). For that matter, we don't even know that the return of the Archangels was intended to bolster Langhorne's plan--there have been suggestions on this forum that it was a backstop plan by doubters.

Second, we only know that the Archangels will return after 1000 years. What about in 2000? 3000? Will the Archangels be returning for the next 10,000 years? Eventually, innovation is certain to rise; Safehold will either reach space or die in one disaster or another.

Third, we don't know that the KEW is actually active. Merlin is acting on the assumption that it is active and under orders to act independently, but he (and we) does not know that for certain. We don't know what orders it has, if any.

Fourth, even if it is active and would strike down any detected high-technology, we don't know what its limits are. Will it survive another 1000 years? 10,000? Has it already broken down? Are there circumstances where technology could arise that it doesn't detect in time?

Fifth, you are assuming that the KEW can stop incipient technological revolutions before it gets out of control. What if innovation and technology spread so far and so fast that the KEW cannot stop it without destroying large portions of the population? Will it do that? The extinction of Safehold is just as much a failure of Langhorne's plan to save the human race as the rise of a space-going technology would be.

The return of the Archangels and the KEW are not the guarantees of the perpetual success of Langhorne's plan that you think they are.

The Rankora (KEW) system was active enough to destroy any probe/drone Merlin tried to send out to it to check up on it. So the defense aspect of the orbiting KEW is working. With that, there's good reason to assume that the rest of it is working too even though it hasn't been used in hundreds of years. Until Merlin sent out the probes, the defense part hadn't probably ever been used either except for shooting the occasional asteroid/meteorite. If the maintenance systems can keep that running, there's nothing to assume that they couldn't keep the bombardment part of it in functional order either.

What Merlin and the circle know is that there's something under the Temple and that something will be 'waking' to check on the world in a few decades/hundreds of years. It could be several PICAs or 'Archangels' in hibernation. The last one is the more likely option imo since the only PICA that was sent with the colony we knew of was the one that became Merlin. Unless Langhorne had a bunch listed and shipped in as something else, the odds of it being another PICA is kind of low I think. It's far more likely some of the surviving 'Archangels' set up several hibernation units for them so they could check up on their descendants, and play God without anyone else around.

Sure, there is no reason to assume that the KEW is non-functional. But we don't know for sure that it is functional. And we certainly don't know that it is actually programmed to automatically launch KEWs at Safehold.

The returning Archangels could be PICAs or hibernating people, as you suggest. But remember that the Merlin doubted that hibernation would work for that long a period. I actually doubt that it is hibernation. And those are certainly not the only two possibilities. It could be an AI (though there's no obvious reason an AI would be programmed to check after 1000 years instead of monitoring continuously). It could be a ship returning from a millennium-long round-trip. It could simply be a pre-recorded 900-foot hologram appearing in the Temple courtyard. It could be something else.

My point is that we don't know, and we don't know that whatever form the Return takes would actually be able to do anything to put Langhorne's plan back on course. We don't even know whether the Return is intended to put Langhorne's plan back on course if things have drifted. So to suggest that the KEW and the Archangels Return give any kind of guarantee that Langhorne's plan would be a success is assuming facts not in evidence. Especialy since Langhorne intended this to keep working forever.

I think we have to assume some sort of AIs sinse the hibernation thing is a process that is not known to have gone much more than 50 years - I don't remember the exact figure. Whether it's a PICA or a computer generated AI working with holograms, I think we have to assume it can control OBS. Given the reality that it has not acted sinse the destruction of the Alexandrian enclave, I am assuming that the thing is not automated and must be given a command to work.

Don

The Terran Federation had no idea how large Gbaba territory actually was. Isn't it possible they are the galaxy's only permanent residents? If they were among the first races to arise and the most vicious of the bunch, they would've wiped out the others and set about creating a system to ensure that no one else took their place ... ever.

If you're so paranoid and xenophobic that you'll pay any price to cleanse your domain of all other forms of intelligence, why would you leave the "outside" untouched and risk a more powerful civilization establishing itself? Instead of filling up every available world, the Gbaba may colonize more sparsely in clusters scattered here and there throghout the Milky Way, while keeping an eye on the "voids" in between for any sign of emerging technology. No matter where a species pops up, if they leave their home system in any direction they'll eventually enter a Gbaba-settled region and awaken the great galactic immune system to their presence.

ecortez wrote:The Terran Federation had no idea how large Gbaba territory actually was. Isn't it possible they are the galaxy's only permanent residents? If they were among the first races to arise and the most vicious of the bunch, they would've wiped out the others and set about creating a system to ensure that no one else took their place ... ever.

If you're so paranoid and xenophobic that you'll pay any price to cleanse your domain of all other forms of intelligence, why would you leave the "outside" untouched and risk a more powerful civilization establishing itself? Instead of filling up every available world, the Gbaba may colonize more sparsely in clusters scattered here and there throghout the Milky Way, while keeping an eye on the "voids" in between for any sign of emerging technology. No matter where a species pops up, if they leave their home system in any direction they'll eventually enter a Gbaba-settled region and awaken the great galactic immune system to their presence.

I would suppose that your thought is possible, but some possibilities are less likely than others. There is no textev that I am aware of that would support your idea.

Now that I have stepped on your idea, I see that you are new. Welcome to the rough and tumble of the forums. Don't hesitate to jump in and mix it up.

Don

ecortez wrote:...Instead of filling up every available world, the Gbaba may colonize more sparsely in clusters scattered here and there throughout the Milky Way, while keeping an eye on the "voids" in between for any sign of emerging technology. ...

<Paranoid hat on>
Settling in clusters would encourage separatism and permit secession. The Gbaba in that cluster aren't the same as the Gbaba in this cluster, so they must be destroyed.
<Paranoid Hat off>

The Gbaba couldn't colonize the entire galaxy -- even in nodal positions -- without extending their communications line to the point where opposite sides of their "empire" would eventually be working at cross-purposes. The Singularity of purpose in the Gbaba encountered suggests an "empire" small enough to maintain a centralized control and unitary purpose.

That is not to say that the Gbaba "empire" is small in any absolute measure, only that it can't be so enormous it covers everything.

Weird Harold wrote:

ecortez wrote:...Instead of filling up every available world, the Gbaba may colonize more sparsely in clusters scattered here and there throughout the Milky Way, while keeping an eye on the "voids" in between for any sign of emerging technology. ...

<Paranoid hat on>
Settling in clusters would encourage separatism and permit secession. The Gbaba in that cluster aren't the same as the Gbaba in this cluster, so they must be destroyed.
<Paranoid Hat off>

The Gbaba couldn't colonize the entire galaxy -- even in nodal positions -- without extending their communications line to the point where opposite sides of their "empire" would eventually be working at cross-purposes. The Singularity of purpose in the Gbaba encountered suggests an "empire" small enough to maintain a centralized control and unitary purpose.

That is not to say that the Gbaba "empire" is small in any absolute measure, only that it can't be so enormous it covers everything.

There's an easy solution for that: assign each node its own territory to cover so that there's minimal overlap. Or if there is overlap, the Gbaba nodes only need to communicate with their immediate neighbors to eliminate any confusion. A totally centralized management system isn't really necessary if everyone uses the same playbook.

Node A: Hey, errant signal in sector 31. Does it belong to anyone?
Node B: Nope.
Node C: Not mine either.
Node A: Okay, must be a new race then. Sending a ship to investigate.

And this is assuming the Gbaba are in fact truly monolithic and not divided into many different nations of their own with Earth having the misfortune to be in the space belonging to the Gbaba version of North Korea or something.

evilauthor wrote:There's an easy solution for that: assign each node its own territory to cover so that there's minimal overlap. Or if there is overlap, the Gbaba nodes only need to communicate with their immediate neighbors to eliminate any confusion. A totally centralized management system isn't really necessary if everyone uses the same playbook.

...

And this is assuming the Gbaba are in fact truly monolithic and not divided into many different nations of their own with Earth having the misfortune to be in the space belonging to the Gbaba version of North Korea or something.

I have trouble believing that the Gbaba aren't subject to the same factors that drive species to evolve and/or colonies to revolt.

The scant information we have portrays the Gbaba as extremely conservative in addition to being paranoid xenophobes -- they adopt new technology only slowly, even under wartime pressures. That would slow down pressure to break away from the Gbaba Empire, but it wouldn't stop it.

The only way that individual Gbaba systems won't change is if there is a monolithic control over the entire empire that is far deeper than simple tradition -- something like a group mind that spans the entire "empire."

A slowly progressing species that lives in a static culture for millions of years would end up having their brains gradually rewired by evolution, reinforcing that culture. If they spoke the same language long enough it's even possible their offspring would be born knowing how to speak it (and likely less capable of learning a new one than their distant ancestors).

Humans split into factions because of differences between them, ones that already exist or ones that come about over time. If we were all genetically programmed for one specific culture it would have the force of instinct and the divergences that lead to those splits would be almost impossible. We would do things the same way, have exactly the same priorities, speak a common language, act and dress the same, believe the same things. Even populations that were separated and out of contact for centuries would have no trouble being combined into one group without conflict or resentment. There would be no us and them, only us.

If Gbaba in one cluster couldn't be different from their brethren across the galaxy the kind of tension which could break their empire into pieces wouldn't exist. The idea of declaring independence and going their own way would be ... well, alien. Wouldn't even cross their minds. Humans, dedicated individualists that we are, had empires controlling far-flung provinces long before modern communications. Local officials have to be granted autonomy in most matters because consulting with the motherland takes too long. That's the attached string that could eventually cause the whole arrangement to unravel.

Gbaba wouldn't have this problem. The decisions their leaders would make together in one room are the same ones they'd make scattered across light years of space. Uniformity of thought. It has its drawbacks. But if you told them it was a limitation they might ask who's been around forever and who got their asses kicked. Assuming of course they condescended to speak to you.

ecortez wrote:A slowly progressing species that lives in a static culture for millions of years would end up having their brains gradually rewired by evolution, reinforcing that culture. If they spoke the same language long enough it's even possible their offspring would be born knowing how to speak it (and likely less capable of learning a new one than their distant ancestors).

That would work on a single planet, or on a few planets fairly close together where there could be constant cross-fertilization and minimal language drift.

Expand that to a huge interstellar empire and the only way you could maintain genetic consistency would be to centralize reproduction on a single Creche Planet.

Without genetic control/consistency, each planet would exert different evolutionary pressures and the Empire would eventually fracture because of parochial issues.