Attacking and Defending Gorath Bay==Possible Spoilers==

Keith_w wrote:No, Caleb's little brother is engaged to the Baytz daughter, both of whose names I forgot and cannot be bothered to look up.

Correct, and for the record it's Mahrya Baytz Ahrmahk and Prince Zhan Ahrmahk. Mahrya is described as something of a book worm.


Larry

Larry wrote:

Keith_w wrote:No, Caleb's little brother is engaged to the Baytz daughter, both of whose names I forgot and cannot be bothered to look up.

Correct, and for the record it's Mahrya Baytz Ahrmahk and Prince Zhan Ahrmahk. Mahrya is described as something of a book worm.


Larry

I believe she was more aptly described as a buxom book-worm.

Ok, the glossary of the preview suggests a clearer picture.

The dotted read lines are likely mine fields as Dohlar appears to have mines and the ICN has counter measures. We know that 4 City class ships and at least 3 Rottweiler class ships are being deployed in the Gulf of Dohlar. When the King Haarald's arrive, the menu of options Adm. Sarmouth will have is just too large for Dohlar to effectively counter.

I can see the ICN galleons traveling in squadrons accompanied by 1 Rottweiler. Each of those squadrons will be able to defeat a significant portion of the RDN by itself. They can certainly take out any convoy escorts. The cities can destroy whatever fortifications there are in whatever additional anchorages Sarmouth may desire. They certainly have enough to destroy whatever is there in Saram Bay.

By the time the King Haarald's arrive, the ICN should be able to support operations deep in the Gulf of Dohlar with at least 1 fortified anchorage. I have a hard time envisioning what the RDN can do to counter anything the ICN tries. Whatever mines are deployed will simply delay the inevitable. Perhaps that delay will help Thirsk and Maik pound some sense into the more recalcitrant of the Dohlaran nobles.

The RDN will either contest the ICN in open waters....and be destroyed or they can pull back into Gorath Bay and allow the ICN to shut down the entire Gulf to jihadi shipping. It just seem that by March 898 the Gulf of Dohlar will not be usable by the jihad. Rainbow Waters will have to rely on the Holy Langhorne Canal for all his supplies. The Southern MH forces will be further out on the limb with respect to their supply chain.

When all is said and done that is a huge number of troops to be supported entirely via the Holy Langhorne. Shutting down Dairnyth as a distribution point for the Southern Host and attacking up the Tanshar River to cut off the Bedard Canal at its source would put paid to the Jihad.

Even if an attack up the Tanshar is slow, neither the MH or the AOG would be able to effectively act quickly enough. Any quick action would require engaging in an open field battle with the ICA. At the very least it would entail fighting less than sufficiently well prepared positions. Neither prospect is a good one. As soon as Magwair realizes the ICN brought troops with them, he has to begin worrying about the Tanshar river. The question to me is just how long the ICN can obscure that bit of information? I assume the ICN is bringing in those troops but may be wrong. However, once Silkiah falls and the ICN owns the Gulf of Dohlar lock, stock and barrel, that possibility has to become obvious.

Yet, if the MH begins to cover that wider front, do they have the strategic reserve to defend against a serious Allied offensive? All of these uncertainties arise from losing the Gulf of Dohlar and are painfully obvious to me. I am not well versed in military strategy and RFC is. When three generations of ironclad show up in the Gulf of Dohlar with each type being vastly superior to anything the Dohlarans can build, how on earth can Magwair or Duchairn envision extending active military operations? The Gulf will be lost well before the summer campaign season. The MH won't be able to force the ICA to attack its fortified positions before the summer. The additional options open to the ICA with the loss of the Gulf will mean the allies won't be forced to attack those very well defended positions. Rainbow Waters has to know the jihad is doomed at that point.

How long before Magwair and Duchairn will also recognize that and act to keep the Church intact?

PeterZ wrote:Ok, the glossary of the preview suggests a clearer picture.

The dotted read lines are likely mine fields as Dohlar appears to have mines and the ICN has counter measures. We know that 4 City class ships and at least 3 Rottweiler class ships are being deployed in the Gulf of Dohlar. When the King Haarald's arrive, the menu of options Adm. Sarmouth will have is just too large for Dohlar to effectively counter.

I can see the ICN galleons traveling in squadrons accompanied by 1 Rottweiler. Each of those squadrons will be able to defeat a significant portion of the RDN by itself. They can certainly take out any convoy escorts. The cities can destroy whatever fortifications there are in whatever additional anchorages Sarmouth may desire. They certainly have enough to destroy whatever is there in Saram Bay.

By the time the King Haarald's arrive, the ICN should be able to support operations deep in the Gulf of Dohlar with at least 1 fortified anchorage. I have a hard time envisioning what the RDN can do to counter anything the ICN tries. Whatever mines are deployed will simply delay the inevitable. Perhaps that delay will help Thirsk and Maik pound some sense into the more recalcitrant of the Dohlaran nobles.

The RDN will either contest the ICN in open waters....and be destroyed or they can pull back into Gorath Bay and allow the ICN to shut down the entire Gulf to jihadi shipping. It just seem that by March 898 the Gulf of Dohlar will not be usable by the jihad. Rainbow Waters will have to rely on the Holy Langhorne Canal for all his supplies. The Southern MH forces will be further out on the limb with respect to their supply chain.

When all is said and done that is a huge number of troops to be supported entirely via the Holy Langhorne. Shutting down Dairnyth as a distribution point for the Southern Host and attacking up the Tanshar River to cut off the Bedard Canal at its source would put paid to the Jihad.

Even if an attack up the Tanshar is slow, neither the MH or the AOG would be able to effectively act quickly enough. Any quick action would require engaging in an open field battle with the ICA. At the very least it would entail fighting less than sufficiently well prepared positions. Neither prospect is a good one. As soon as Magwair realizes the ICN brought troops with them, he has to begin worrying about the Tanshar river. The question to me is just how long the ICN can obscure that bit of information? I assume the ICN is bringing in those troops but may be wrong. However, once Silkiah falls and the ICN owns the Gulf of Dohlar lock, stock and barrel, that possibility has to become obvious.

Yet, if the MH begins to cover that wider front, do they have the strategic reserve to defend against a serious Allied offensive? All of these uncertainties arise from losing the Gulf of Dohlar and are painfully obvious to me. I am not well versed in military strategy and RFC is. When three generations of ironclad show up in the Gulf of Dohlar with each type being vastly superior to anything the Dohlarans can build, how on earth can Magwair or Duchairn envision extending active military operations? The Gulf will be lost well before the summer campaign season. The MH won't be able to force the ICA to attack its fortified positions before the summer. The additional options open to the ICA with the loss of the Gulf will mean the allies won't be forced to attack those very well defended positions. Rainbow Waters has to know the jihad is doomed at that point.

How long before Magwair and Duchairn will also recognize that and act to keep the Church intact?

Fascinating analyses. Have we been given any hints as to when we will see the Haarahlds?

Don

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n7axw wrote:Fascinating analyses. Have we been given any hints as to when we will see the Haarahlds?

Don
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I haven't read anything about the Harralds. The interesting part is that the Haraald's were estimated to arrive before the cities in HFQ. Since the cities are halfway to the Gulf of Dohlar in early February, it follows that the Haaralds could have been nearer at that time.

If the cities are ahead of the Haaralds, then my hopes may come to fruition. That the Haaralds will have smokeless powder and true HE shell filler (TNT or one of the other compounds Dr. Lywys is working on). That delay may also mean that the current batch of the ICA being trained as of HFQ will tag along as well. That answers how the Allies will hide information about additional ICA troops being deployed in the Gulf.

The Gwyllym Manthyr turns up east of the Dohlar Bank well before the end.

And it seems that Thirsk is laying up his galleons in response.

PeterZ wrote:

n7axw wrote:Fascinating analyses. Have we been given any hints as to when we will see the Haarahlds?

Don
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I haven't read anything about the Harralds. The interesting part is that the Haraald's were estimated to arrive before the cities in HFQ. Since the cities are halfway to the Gulf of Dohlar in early February, it follows that the Haaralds could have been nearer at that time.

If the cities are ahead of the Haaralds, then my hopes may come to fruition. That the Haaralds will have smokeless powder and true HE shell filler (TNT or one of the other compounds Dr. Lywys is working on). That delay may also mean that the current batch of the ICA being trained as of HFQ will tag along as well. That answers how the Allies will hide information about additional ICA troops being deployed in the Gulf.

Louis R wrote:The Gwyllym Manthyr turns up east of the Dohlar Bank well before the end.

And it seems that Thirsk is laying up his galleons in response.

Do you recall the date? If this is still during the early spring or late winter, then Rainbow Waters may well be hosed. So hosed he'll order redeployment regardless of what Clyntahn wants. He'll be dead or captured if he doesn't.

Excerpt in media res, so no immediate date marker. In fact, they've all be chopped out today. Can't even see the one I had yesterday.

PeterZ wrote:

Louis R wrote:The Gwyllym Manthyr turns up east of the Dohlar Bank well before the end.

And it seems that Thirsk is laying up his galleons in response.

Do you recall the date? If this is still during the early spring or late winter, then Rainbow Waters may well be hosed. So hosed he'll order redeployment regardless of what Clyntahn wants. He'll be dead or captured if he doesn't.

PeterZ wrote:

Louis R wrote:The Gwyllym Manthyr turns up east of the Dohlar Bank well before the end.

And it seems that Thirsk is laying up his galleons in response.

Do you recall the date? If this is still during the early spring or late winter, then Rainbow Waters may well be hosed. So hosed he'll order redeployment regardless of what Clyntahn wants. He'll be dead or captured if he doesn't.

As this is inside a posting listed as a possible spoiler, I HOPE this is OK....

First mention of the Gwylym Manthyr is on page 313.

Page 217 is the start of April.

When introduce to the GW, she is still in Charis (finishing acceptance trials??). We ARE also told that she will be the only one of her class completed at that time, with the others coming along 4 months or so later. This is still fallout from the Delthak fire. They can't make more 10" guns until the facility is back up.

So they must have decided to use those two mounts and the pair of 10 inch barrels that didn't get caught in the fire after all. In the conversation in the inner circle following the fire, Howsmyn expressed that he wasn't comfortable doing that, but sometimes needs must...

It does seem like the other Haarahlds are taking longer than expected unless my own impression of how far along they were is mistaken.

I imagine those Cities must be Zhastro's squadron unless someone has better info. I expected them to be transfered over from the coast of Desnair...

Don

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