Do the Allies *need* to go on the offensive?

Larry wrote:Since I at least reference the strategic situation definitely Spoilers.
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With River Wind being dug in and well supplied to the north, plus outnumbering the EoC troops so handily, a strong offense on that front seems like a bad idea. Unless his forces can be flanked to the north, I see no percentage in attacking him beyond moving up to a long mutual engagement distance for protracted artillery duels in which the EoC's longer range might prove useful. Do not attack the enemy were he is strong, instead pin him down and make him come to you. Let the mighty host feed it's cannon fodder into your meat grinder and just keep turning the handle.

On the South yes press the offensive. Push where the numbers and the material favor you. Cut Silkiah out. Use combined land and sea interdiction to cutoff the South Harchong Empire from the North. Attack and take Dairnyth from the sea, then push up the Dairnyth-Aklesburg Canal to cut Dohlar out. Of course all of this requires gaining navel superiority from the Sea of Harchong all the way up to the Bay of Bess. We assume that the EoC can do this.
If they can, or just look like they can, than the CoGA will have little choice but to draw back out of the North and come running South to relieve the situation there.

And that's when you nail them, when they have to pull out of their strong positions into the chaos of a direction change.
This is when you slice the Langhorn, while the Mighty hosts is strung out along it trying to move south. Chop their movement then chop the pieces as opportunity allows.

Alternatively if you control the Gulf of Dohlar, you could instead launch an offensive straight into Malansath and the Temple Lands. That would really have Clynthan go nuts in panic. He'd start screaming for his loyal Harchongese soldiers to get back to cover that. And that would weaken the heck out of the Northern line fast.

Strategically you want to attack anywhere but in the North. Hey diddle diddle straight up the middle into prepared fortifications and artillery? No thank you. Hit the soft underbelly instead.

Larry

I can see some benefit in keeping Rainbow Water's positions on edge with artillery fire beyond the range where he can reply. But I would agree that feeding infantry into the meat grinder to assault those positions would be a very bad idea.

Don

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crucisnh wrote:In the highlighted cases, I think that you meant to say Grand Vicar, not Grand Inquisitor. Just a suspicion.

<sigh>. Fixed. I used to be able to type coherent posts...

Regardless, I kind of doubt that the Grand Vicar would have the intestinal fortitude to do anything more than tie his shoe laces. After all, it's not like we've see any textev of him mattering in the least.

Oh, I don't assume Grand Vicar Erek would do any such thing of his own volition. RFC has stated elsewhere he's not really a drooling idiot who can't choose matching socks without assistance, but he's certainly not a strong leader.

He's the classic compromise candidate who got elected Grand Vicar precisely because he wouldn't upset any priestly apple carts. (There's reference in an earlier book to a Grand Vicar who suffered an unfortunate fatal accident because he was an activist who was disturbing various cozy relationships devoted to increasing the wealth and power of those in them.)

(I suspect the process of electing a new Grand Vicar on Safehold would bear a strong resemblance to the sort of politicking that has taken place in the Roman Catholic church over the centuries, where you can assume religious orthodoxy of the candidate wasn't the only consideration of the Cardinals who cast votes.)

The Grand Vicar would only do such a thing if Trynair told him to and wrote his speech, and Trynair is highly unlikely to do that. I suspect he assumes that neither he nor the Grand Vicar would survive the attempt, and I think that's a correct assumption on his part.
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Dennis

WeberFan wrote:I personally don't think the risk is as great as you're making it out to be. The huge, almost incalculable advantage that Sharleyan has now that the Inner Circle didn't have in the Corisande affair is that Owl is now completely self aware and can easily keep track of even the most trivial sniff of rebellion as soon as it pops-up. I have little doubt that there are SNARC remotes "attached" to every conspirator... hearing what they say... Seeing what they write... And funneling it all to mother Owl who aggregates it all and prepares the real-time threat assessment.

I don't think it's a huge risk either. More of a concern.

Sharleyan has popular support, and also has the support of the army and navy. The conspirators can't even put together a larger, hidden group of armsmen without Owl knowing about it. And it's really hard to effect a coup-de-main without talking to anyone or without writing anything down.

Nope.

When it happens (and I believe it will in ATsT), I believe that Sharleyan's loyal forces will OWN the conspirators... But I'm looking forward to seeing how the loyal forces net them all in one fell swoop...

I concur. Sharleyan has no concerns about the nobles actually getting anywhere. As mentioned, they don't have the numbers, the modern weapons, and most important, the popular support.

But any such attempts will involve collateral damage, and Sharleyan is concerned about that, like what might happen to her supporter Countess what's-her-name whose none too populous or prosperous earldom happens to be between a couple of the conspirators who will try to squash her like a bug as part of their plans.

What Sharleyan will want is conclusive evidence that will stand up in court proving treason by the nobles that can be used to arrest, try, and behead the lot of them before they actually take up arms and cause that sort of trouble. The "standing up in court" part is the tricky bit, as that sort of evidence can't come from those irregular sources.

Sharleyan wants the same thing in Chisholm that she got in Corisande - iron clad proof, available for inspection by anyone, that the Northern Conspiracy was guilty of crimes that carried the death penalty under Corisandian as well as Charisian law, and trails conducted with full due process under the law. It needs to be made blindingly clear to all that she plays by the rules, and if you obey the law and actually keep your oaths, she has no problem with you.

It will be a very pointed reminder to other possibly discontented nobles about just which side their bread is buttered on.
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Dennis

Re the Grand Vicar impeaching Clyntahn and Maigwair arresting the inquisition afterwards

None of it going to happen
1) Trynair doesn't have the backbone
2) As soon as a meeting of the Vicarate that does not have Clyntahn's prior approval is announced, both the Grand Vicar and Trynair will have the kind of 'accident' that happened to St Everahrd
3)If, by some impossibility, it did happen, Clyntahn would ignore it, immediately have Trynair and the Grand Vicar arrested, and the minutes would show the meeting had been about ordering new teacups, or increasing the powers of the Grand Inquisitor in time of Jihad.
4) Arrest the Inquisition with whom? All the forces within 600 miles of Zion are under Inquisition control and it seems clear that actual Inquisition forces considerably outnumber the Temple Guard people still in Zion, who are mostly HQ staff etc.

Re the EoC convincing Clyntahn he has been wrong.
Very doubtful it's going to happen. Shan Wei is the mother of lies, after all. The more 'demonic trickery' used to try to convince him, the more evidence that the EoC are her servants. That would apply even if Clyntahn were remotely rational about this, which he isn't.

Randomiser wrote:Re the Grand Vicar impeaching Clyntahn and Maigwair arresting the inquisition afterwards

None of it going to happen
1) Trynair doesn't have the backbone
2) As soon as a meeting of the Vicarate that does not have Clyntahn's prior approval is announced, both the Grand Vicar and Trynair will have the kind of 'accident' that happened to St Everahrd
3)If, by some impossibility, it did happen, Clyntahn would ignore it, immediately have Trynair and the Grand Vicar arrested, and the minutes would show the meeting had been about ordering new teacups, or increasing the powers of the Grand Inquisitor in time of Jihad.
4) Arrest the Inquisition with whom? All the forces within 600 miles of Zion are under Inquisition control and it seems clear that actual Inquisition forces considerably outnumber the Temple Guard people still in Zion, who are mostly HQ staff etc.

Re the EoC convincing Clyntahn he has been wrong.
Very doubtful it's going to happen. Shan Wei is the mother of lies, after all. The more 'demonic trickery' used to try to convince him, the more evidence that the EoC are her servants. That would apply even if Clyntahn were remotely rational about this, which he isn't.

One possible way through this could be referred to in Tiny Snippet 2 ("Nimue is seriously pissed off"). The action that this snippet presages might be the raid on St Thyrmyn prison (in which case disregard this suggestion), but if there were to be an actual Rakurai-style strike, hits on the Inquisitor and Temple Guard barracks would put a serious dent in the quasi-military forces under Clyntahn's immediate control. And as well as getting rid of the armsmen, such expressions of Archangelic displeasure would deal Clyntahn's moral authority (or immoral authority? ) a severe blow.
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Ah! The soft underbelly.

Yes, indeed! The PPCLI are only one of many, many regiments who could tell you all about the Soft Underbelly of Europe

Larry wrote:< snip >

Strategically you want to attack anywhere but in the North. Hey diddle diddle straight up the middle into prepared fortifications and artillery? No thank you. Hit the soft underbelly instead.

Larry

If GV launches a frontal assault against a full-strength RW, he's beyond insane and should be relieved. If he survives.

I'm in agreement with most of what I've read here. Use his artillery and range to demonstrate and raise a lot of noise. Force RW to keep a constant vigil and draw everyone's gaze to the Border States. Then, cut Silkhiah out (not hard); offer terms to Dohlar (little harder, but not infeasible), and cut S. Harchong off and land some forces on the Harchong mainland.
Dohlar shouldn't be too difficult to bring to the table--not with Thirsk free to act his conscience and especially with a pincer from the sea [I'm thinking bombardment and fireships w/ ironclad support...maybe a Marine division attempting/securing a bridgehead for good measure] and the Allied army pressing in from the East.
Harchong gets a little more interesting. You can't leave S. Harchong to themselves, but they're not a priority right now. Cutting them off will just piss them off, especially since they have all the industry. I can't remember the population size though. However, S. Harchong aside, the Allies must land a sizable force in N. Harchong. That would be the simplest and fastest way to force the Church to shift resources from the Border States and relieve some of the pressure GV is facing. Plus with Dohlar out and the Silkhiah Canal in Allied hands, the Allies can seize/interdict the Canal RW is using to feed his troops. It gets even better if you either can bring Dohlar in or even make them become neutral. With dwindling supplies, reduced reinforcement and materiel, a short campaign season, and reduced strength, he'll be hard-pressed to attack GV. Not just by Zion, but out of military necessity.

Then, there's always the fleet anchored at the mouth of the Hsing-Wu Passage. Many, many things could be done with that force, especially with some full troops transports...

Randomiser wrote:Re the Grand Vicar impeaching Clyntahn and Maigwair arresting the inquisition afterwards

None of it going to happen
1) Trynair doesn't have the backbone

2) As soon as a meeting of the Vicarate that does not have Clyntahn's prior approval is announced, both the Grand Vicar and Trynair will have the kind of 'accident' that happened to St Everahrd

3)If, by some impossibility, it did happen, Clyntahn would ignore it, immediately have Trynair and the Grand Vicar arrested, and the minutes would show the meeting had been about ordering new teacups, or increasing the powers of the Grand Inquisitor in time of Jihad.

Agreed. I've mentioned elsewhere that Trynair is unlikely to play the Grand Vicar card, because he doesn't think he or the Grand Vicar would survive if he did.

I can see Clyntahn simply having Trynair and Grand Vicar Erek killed, and declaring himself Grand Vicar as well as Grand Inquisitor. It's not like anyone in the Vicarate is likely to gainsay him...

4) Arrest the Inquisition with whom? All the forces within 600 miles of Zion are under Inquisition control and it seems clear that actual Inquisition forces considerably outnumber the Temple Guard people still in Zion, who are mostly HQ staff etc.

That control might not be as solid as is being assumed.

The Inquisition has always relied on requisitioning secular assistance if armed force is needed. In the case of Zion, the secular might is the Temple Guard. There are less of them around than there were, since many were deployed as cadre with the AOG, but some do exist.

Clyntahn did take the precaution of assigning special intendants to Guard units to insure they behaved.

But Inquisitors aren't trained fighters. They are just dandy at torturing confessions out of accused victims. They are less dandy in actual armed combat.

What happens if members of the Temple Guard in Zion decide they've had enough of being used by Clyntahn, and maybe their special intendants suffer unfortunate mishaps?

Re the EoC convincing Clyntahn he has been wrong.
Very doubtful it's going to happen. Shan Wei is the mother of lies, after all. The more 'demonic trickery' used to try to convince him, the more evidence that the EoC are her servants. That would apply even if Clyntahn were remotely rational about this, which he isn't.

It may depend upon exactly how things are presented. I postulated earlier that he might decide Nimue's presentation was lies presented with the assistance of Shan Wei and Proctor. But even if he simply rejects it out of hand (which I agree is likely), the whole experience should leave him very badly rattled, starting with Nimue not being banished by brandishing Langhorne's scepter. Precisely where Nimue gives her presentation isn't revealed in the snippet, but given how close to home Zhaspar stays, it's likely to be some place he assumed demons couldn't appear.

As the Jihad suffers continuing and consistent reverses, doubt will continue to creep in. Duchairn and Magwair have already explicitly told him Mother Church could lose the war, though Clyntahn clung to the notion that God and the Archangels would intervene, and threatened to arrest both Duchairn and Magwair if they didn't do as he wished.

And as Clyntahn's (and the Iquisition's) reputation takes further damage because they've been consistently lying and more and more people are aware they have been, Clyntahn's control will fray and he may be unable to enforce his decrees.
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Dennis

DMcCunney wrote:

Randomiser wrote:Re the Grand Vicar impeaching Clyntahn and Maigwair arresting the inquisition afterwards

None of it going to happen
1) Trynair doesn't have the backbone

2) As soon as a meeting of the Vicarate that does not have Clyntahn's prior approval is announced, both the Grand Vicar and Trynair will have the kind of 'accident' that happened to St Everahrd

3)If, by some impossibility, it did happen, Clyntahn would ignore it, immediately have Trynair and the Grand Vicar arrested, and the minutes would show the meeting had been about ordering new teacups, or increasing the powers of the Grand Inquisitor in time of Jihad.

Agreed. I've mentioned elsewhere that Trynair is unlikely to play the Grand Vicar card, because he doesn't think he or the Grand Vicar would survive if he did.

I can see Clyntahn simply having Trynair and Grand Vicar Erek killed, and declaring himself Grand Vicar as well as Grand Inquisitor. It's not like anyone in the Vicarate is likely to gainsay him...

4) Arrest the Inquisition with whom? All the forces within 600 miles of Zion are under Inquisition control and it seems clear that actual Inquisition forces considerably outnumber the Temple Guard people still in Zion, who are mostly HQ staff etc.

That control might not be as solid as is being assumed.

The Inquisition has always relied on requisitioning secular assistance if armed force is needed. In the case of Zion, the secular might is the Temple Guard. There are less of them around than there were, since many were deployed as cadre with the AOG, but some do exist.

Clyntahn did take the precaution of assigning special intendants to Guard units to insure they behaved.

But Inquisitors aren't trained fighters. They are just dandy at torturing confessions out of accused victims. They are less dandy in actual armed combat.

What happens if members of the Temple Guard in Zion decide they've had enough of being used by Clyntahn, and maybe their special intendants suffer unfortunate mishaps?

Re the EoC convincing Clyntahn he has been wrong.
Very doubtful it's going to happen. Shan Wei is the mother of lies, after all. The more 'demonic trickery' used to try to convince him, the more evidence that the EoC are her servants. That would apply even if Clyntahn were remotely rational about this, which he isn't.

It may depend upon exactly how things are presented. I postulated earlier that he might decide Nimue's presentation was lies presented with the assistance of Shan Wei and Proctor. But even if he simply rejects it out of hand (which I agree is likely), the whole experience should leave him very badly rattled, starting with Nimue not being banished by brandishing Langhorne's scepter. Precisely where Nimue gives her presentation isn't revealed in the snippet, but given how close to home Zhaspar stays, it's likely to be some place he assumed demons couldn't appear.

As the Jihad suffers continuing and consistent reverses, doubt will continue to creep in. Duchairn and Magwair have already explicitly told him Mother Church could lose the war, though Clyntahn clung to the notion that God and the Archangels would intervene, and threatened to arrest both Duchairn and Magwair if they didn't do as he wished.

And as Clyntahn's (and the Iquisition's) reputation takes further damage because they've been consistently lying and more and more people are aware they have been, Clyntahn's control will fray and he may be unable to enforce his decrees.
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Dennis

If it turns out that Vicar Zhasphar is actually under the control of the seijins, one thing I wouldn't do is send him home after whatever presentation they have in mind...

...although there is some appeal in sending him home to keep gumming up the works, especially if he's thoroughly shaken up!

Don

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n7axw wrote:If it turns out that Vicar Zhasphar is actually under the control of the seijins, one thing I wouldn't do is send him home after whatever presentation they have in mind...

We don't know where Nimue's presentation takes place, but it's a reasonable assumption the seijins can't keep him. What would they do with him? It's unlikely they could take him with them when they leave.

...although there is some appeal in sending him home to keep gumming up the works, especially if he's thoroughly shaken up!

Quite. I can imagine the fun if he tries to tell anyone about his experience. (And the one he might tell is Rayno, and his likely mental state when he does so will push Rayno a lot closer to the edge... ("OMG! Zhaspar is losing it! WTF do I do now?" )
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Dennis