Speculation on the next in the Safehold series

CJK wrote:Whenever someone talks about killing Clyntahn I am reminded of the sermon Staynair gives about why Safehold MUST rise against the group of four. "Choose the best and brightest to be my priests" in other words it is the duty of Safehold to cleanse the Temple, not Merlin. Very similar to how they are encouraging innovation in Safehold.

Merlin may want to kill Clyntahn now but to be quite frank the good guys inc. NEEDED Clyntahn to be a monster as it forces people to question their unthinking obedience to the CoGA. Clyntahn is not the ultimate enemy its the ideology of the CoGA that needs to be broken, in this regard the 3 million dead may well be regarded as necessary and unavoidable.

For that matter given the fuedal state Desnair and Harchong (and the presence of slaves/serfs) we could certainly expect to see more (possibly larger) genocidal atrocities in the future. Especially in light of how these empires rely upon the CoGA clergy support for their position of wealth and power NTM the upsetting nature of the industrial revolution. IMO there is no real way Merlin could have avoided all the bloodshed, what he HAS done is speed up the process of the CoGA's inevitable collapse. May want to reread OAR and Nimue's first thoughts on what would happen, like for example she could do nothing and the collapse would still happen.

This is something that I more or less agree with. I once did a little research into how psychology had been used against Hitler during WWII. I ran across a paper that was a psychological profile of Hitler and described how the military might be able to take advantage of Hitler's weaknesses to have an effect on how Germany's armies were deployed and used. And as they found that they indeed could take actions that would twist Hitler into taking counter actions detrimental to the German army, no Ally was making an effort to explicitly take out Hitler.

In this series of books Clyntahn is more or less playing the roll of a destructively volatile version of Hitler and he is demanding actions by the army that are being detrimental to the AOG success. Clyntahn, right where he is, is playing a pivotal roll in the destruction of the CoGA, he needs to be there.

Merlin not only needs to win this war, he needs to also crush and destroy the CoGA both as an organization and as a theology. Safehold then needs to get back to a rapid state of technological development. People may need to accept neurological implants so a great deal of known knowledge can be give to them to help this process along. After all, in the end, Safehold must develop a space fleet with the weapons needed to defeat the Gababa. (and probably send off another "ark" to yet another distant planet in case the Gababa aren't defeated this time either)

CJK wrote:Charis has a numerical disadvantage versus the CoGA so trying to sidestep Dohlar is likely to be more detrimental to Charis. Then there is the fact that the Dohlarian army could turn around and cut the canal behind the ironclads, risking such a powerful weapon being destroyed or captured sounds a bit too risky.

As for hitting Dayzor, sure expect that will happen regardless given the Harchongese support in the jihad. Doubt that this would effect the supply of the HoGaA though given the huge distances the CoGA could supply locally (border states). My expectation is that the Langhorne canal will be threatened, as the HoGaA is massive and the bulk of its supplies needs that canal to reach the army in Lake City.

My take on what is happening is that all the armies on all sides in the northern areas are getting ready to establish camps to survive the winter. Although, because Green Valley was so effective in his winter campaign last winter things are sure to be different this winter. But the winter is going to more or less isolate Dohlar from every other CoGA member. Right now Dohlar has it's army holding Hanth at bay in the East with the Navy protecting it's West. However, that navy is about to be destroyed during the winter allowing an army to be landed in Dohlar's Western side. This should collapse Dohlar's defences and force a surrender. Which should send the CoGA's intendants in Dohlar running for any available escape route. This would free Dohlar of the CoGA's control and allow them to at least become something other than a tool of the CoGA.

A thing that Merlin might consider doing to make it ruff for the CoGA armies in the north during the winter months is to have his recon skimmer drop some incendiaries into supply depots. (just a thought)

There are a number of plot threads that come to mind from HFQ and the rest of the series that we could see addressed in the next installation:

1) Thirsk - Obviously, he is going to be presented with the truth. Merlin doesn't do personal house calls for anything less (see HFAF and Paityr Wylsyn's exposure to the truth). The real question is where does he go from there? Merlin would probably assure him that his family is alive and safe (in Charisian custody). But what does he then do? All the world currently believes Thirsk's family is dead (including the Church) with the official story being that their ship was attacked by half a dozen Charisian warships and exploding after a gallant defense. Having them show up in Corisande for example would of course prove the Church is full of $#!t, but it would also automatically paint a giant bull's eye on the good earl. Clyntahn would certainly be inclined to eliminate him just to be sure Charis can't use him to undermine Dohlar. At the very least he would lose his command because his king would know he's been compromised. All that leaves the second option of their arriving secretly somewhere in Charis (perhaps split them up on separate islands just to be on the safe side) and keeping them "dead" for a time at least.

2) Dohlar - Clyntahn was only barely convinced not to move immediately against the Dohlaran officers and seamen who survived the Battle of the Trosan (having lost the promised prized of some 500 Charisian prisoners to torture to death) and still decided to have Thirsk's family brought to Zion to better control him. Yet now he has been denied even that leverage. So the only question is whether he decides to move against all of those Dohlaran sailors for their "blunder". If he does, it is likely to seriously piss off the Royal Dohlaran Navy and any high born relatives of the seamen in question. As Trynair notes during a discussion on Kaitswyrth's position, the Earl of Hennet was related to too many Desnairian nobles for the Church to risk pissing off by punishing him for his far more real cowardice. So what would happen in Dohlar should Clyntahn "determine" that all of those officers must face the Punishment for that debacle? Would they simply acquiesce to Clyntahn's demand and sacrifice these officers just to keep the Church happy? Or would this push Thirsk and the Navy over the edge into all out rebellion? Or worse, would the factions in the Royal court (shown in HFQ) come to open blows over this and trigger a civil war in Dohlar? When you add Thirsk's new perspective on the Church (following Merlin's visit) and any assurances that the Seijins would help him in dealing with this fresh atrocity, things getting far more dicey than before.

3) Rayno - HFQ does a lot to present him more sympathetically. Certain he manages to restrain Clyntahn several times in the book from going overboard. Yet it's clear that while he was always a faithful servant for Clyntahn, his position is getting mighty precarious, despite his competence and his willingness to tell Clyntahn unpleasant truths. Then there is his understanding that "demons" are assisting the heretics. While only RFC knows where this will lead, it is clear that Rayno is likely to at least think about how to deal with this "demonic" threat. He's already concluded that the "demons" can't or won't operate within a 5 mile radius of the Temple and operate more circumspectly than they did in the War Against the Fallen. What more they could do to utilize these disadvantages of Merlin (beyond what they've doing already) is unclear. But it will likely set him on some research into the "demons" in the War Against the Fallen and how they were defeated.

4) The Wynsyn Legacy and the Writ's Promise of Divine Intervention Against Demons - We now know that the "demons" of the War Against the Fallen were the Seijin fighting on the side of the Fallen and that the Fallen were the military and law enforcement personnel of the colony administration. This would seem to imply that the Writ at least says that demons can look human. Yet it also raises the question of what the Writ meant by divine intervention when demons were loose in the world. We also know that Schueler entrusted his descendants with the Key and the Stone to ensure Mother Church remains pure. Given the Wylsyn family's commitment to reform and the way in which the Inquisition was set up at the time (under the Order of Bedard and separated from the Order of Jwo-Jang and Schueler) it seems that Schueler feared both some sort "demonic" threat as well as the threat of the Church becoming tyrannical. Schueler would have to be worried that some of the Fallen had not been discovered and were waiting for all of the "Angels" to die out in order to move more openly (or had some people in cryo with an industrial module ready to wake up within a century). In would make sense therefore to create some sort of contingency plan for such a possibility. But could they have guessed that something like a PICA with hacked software would wake up after over 900 local years with an industrial module and a tactical AI?

@ thanatos;

1. Disagree. IMO Merlin should not tell Thirsk the true history in his current mental state (his family is alive is a given). Besides it is possible that the appropriate cover story is in place given it is several weeks past the attack. That his family is alive does mean Thirsk is on the clock and will force him to move in the next book.

2. When Clyntahn gives the order is a big question mark, the semaphores allow him to give the order on very short notice now that he has ordered preparatory measures. NTM that letter really pissed him off, something which Dohlar spies will learn of but we have no text on how Dohlar leadership will react outside of Thorast, Thirsk and possibly Fern. Here my guess is that if Dohlar's military position looks bad enough to the nobility they can use Clyntahn's attacks as an excuse to leave the jihad. Given the only of victories of the jihad are from the navy their mistreatment should backfire regardless. Especially given the odds, casualty rate (75%?) and the total surprise.

Merlin's sejin help drastically increases Thirsk's survival, if he accepts it (pretty likely but not certain). One thing that may happen is that Merlin may STAY in Gorath to help Thirsk, after all its not like Cayleb needs a super bodyguard as much right now with Aivah, Narhmarhn and ballistic undies. This move solves a lot of issues with Thirsk and the true history plus helps avoid demonic charges. Assuming that Merlin's first visit can be explained.

IMO Dohlar is out of the jihad very soon, Merlin would prefer Thirsk lived and I do not expect it will be resolved by armies/navies. Charis can use military force if the subversion fails, besides Charis has a history of making risky /ballsy moves.

Will get back to you on the other 2 points, this post is pretty big already.

I want to repost something here as this thread may be more appropriate for it.

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The CoGA is going to bring to the battleground some new rockets that were compared to Russian katyusha rockets from WWII.

Charis is intending to bring to production a better version using better propellants with dynamite explosive charges that results in longer range and more destructive power.

What I am wondering is if they couldn't also start to make man portable shoulder fire versions of these. Can any body say "R P G." They could come in handy in street fighting or in ambushes. And unlike the Harchong "sling" weapon they can be fired from cover. (more or less)

The CoGA katyusha is going to change things about fixed fortifications and trench warfare. I see next summer's battles being more a case of maneuver and fire operations. I can see modified gorilla style of fighting where you hit them hard then reposition before the katyusha's can be put to use and then fire again. I want lots of 3 inch mortars that small units can move around with easily.

When katyusha's are involved, I cant see sitting in one place letting the CoGA armies use them effectively. Maneuver the enemy into an open position where anti-personal shrapnel shells or the EoC's own longer ranged version of the katyusha can be used to devastating effect.

But before next summer gets there, the Gulf of Dohlar must be under complete control of the EoC navy and Dohlar and Silkia must be surrendered to the EoC. That is what the winter months need to be used for. This will give the EoC a speed of maneuver over the ocean that the CoGA armies on land can not match.

Then in the spring, I want to see the new armies of Charis, Ghisholm and Corisade to open a new battle front way in the rear of the Siddarmark lines. I would invade from Malansath as that would give me the shortest path to Temple Lands. I would move up the hi-road from Hayzor through the Wishbone Mountains heading to Lakeview on Lake Pei. And up the river that I think is named “Samabana”. If I could get 3 or 4 river class iron-side boats up that river and the connecting “Lake Pei” canal onto Lake Pei itself, I could cause some serious damage and threaten Zion itself.

Such a thing would threaten the supplies of the CoGA armies in Siddarmark and cause a substantial division of forces on the CoGA side. It would also cut the Harchong Empire off from it's armies in Siddarmark.

It could all be helped out if Merlin could be convenience to take out a few locks on the Holy Langhorne Canal and drop a few incendiaries on the supply dumps of the Harchong armies during the winter.

[quote from Charybdis in another thread]
Yeah BUT what about "Helm Cleaver" operations? The Inquisition is probably running short of Clyntahn-vetted agents. The problem with these kind of loyalty agents is that they require extreme dedication AND ability to think, a dichotomy that has sunk such efforts in the past. The Inquisition needs presence wherever there are troops AND where there is "New Thought" manufacturing AND in Zion AND in foreign capitals AND ...

Add to that, the defined policy of Charis towards the Inquisition, and the body count alone has got to be getting thin!
[/quote]

Add to all of that the order Clyntahn gave Rayno to increase the staffing levels.

Hire in haste, repent at leisure. Helm Cleaver doesn't even have to plant a double agent. It's enough for their purposes if they can identify corrupt or blackmailable people among the newly hired Inquisitors. In fact it's enough to identify a stupid one. "When Rayno addresses your graduating class, you can bring God's blessing to the entire room with this holy relic. Just enter this simple PAL code."

Just as a general point, don't forget that Murphy is still around, guys! Merlin and Nimue are not invulnerable. Difficult to "kill", yes, but a sufficiently large shell arriving at just the wrong time would be quite enough if either of them got stuck in a really messy battle. And the consequences on Charisian morale if that happened would be nigh-on catastrophic.

Now that big guns etc. have arrived on the scene, to my mind it is essential to keep Merlin, Nimue, and Cayleb as safe as possible. As well as their obvious skills, their continued existence has become critically important to the Charisian cause.

Didn't Merlin say his body could regenerate from materials in the environment after any catastrophe that left his power plant and a bootstrap level of nanotech intact?

Something tells me the shielding on his power plant is robust even by TF standards.

Annachie wrote:I'm wondering if Merlin will survive to the next series. Not that anything can hurt him. I wonder if he'll shut himself down and allow a fresh Nimue to take over for the next war.


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It is unlikely that a principal character, dedicated to bringing humans back to a technological level able to fight war in space against the Gbaba, would be removed or replaced in the series. Given the present degree of advancement comparable to Earth's 19th (& early 20th) century, there are many generations of advancement to be covered. Remember that Nimue Alban's generation was defeated by the Gbaba; humanity's survival will require technology exceeding that with which Nimue (Merlin) knew.

StealthSeeker wrote:I want to repost something here as this thread may be more appropriate for it.

---------------------

The CoGA is going to bring to the battleground some new rockets that were compared to Russian katyusha rockets from WWII.

Charis is intending to bring to production a better version using better propellants with dynamite explosive charges that results in longer range and more destructive power.

What I am wondering is if they couldn't also start to make man portable shoulder fire versions of these. Can any body say "R P G." They could come in handy in street fighting or in ambushes. And unlike the Harchong "sling" weapon they can be fired from cover. (more or less)

The CoGA katyusha is going to change things about fixed fortifications and trench warfare. I see next summer's battles being more a case of maneuver and fire operations. I can see modified gorilla style of fighting where you hit them hard then reposition before the katyusha's can be put to use and then fire again. I want lots of 3 inch mortars that small units can move around with easily.

When katyusha's are involved, I cant see sitting in one place letting the CoGA armies use them effectively. Maneuver the enemy into an open position where anti-personal shrapnel shells or the EoC's own longer ranged version of the katyusha can be used to devastating effect.

But before next summer gets there, the Gulf of Dohlar must be under complete control of the EoC navy and Dohlar and Silkia must be surrendered to the EoC. That is what the winter months need to be used for. This will give the EoC a speed of maneuver over the ocean that the CoGA armies on land can not match.

Then in the spring, I want to see the new armies of Charis, Ghisholm and Corisade to open a new battle front way in the rear of the Siddarmark lines. I would invade from Malansath as that would give me the shortest path to Temple Lands. I would move up the hi-road from Hayzor through the Wishbone Mountains heading to Lakeview on Lake Pei. And up the river that I think is named “Samabana”. If I could get 3 or 4 river class iron-side boats up that river and the connecting “Lake Pei” canal onto Lake Pei itself, I could cause some serious damage and threaten Zion itself.

Such a thing would threaten the supplies of the CoGA armies in Siddarmark and cause a substantial division of forces on the CoGA side. It would also cut the Harchong Empire off from it's armies in Siddarmark.

It could all be helped out if Merlin could be convenience to take out a few locks on the Holy Langhorne Canal and drop a few incendiaries on the supply dumps of the Harchong armies during the winter.

Development of railroads by the church would greatly increase the ability of the AofG to move men and supplies. Since this would be out of reach by the Charis Navy, interdiction would require guerilla forces, commando forces, or aerial forces. Blocking a railroad line is simply a matter of removing rail-spikes on he outside of a curve. Inspection for that trick is easily overcome by replacing good spikes with very short "fakes" that won't hold against side pressure, but will fool casual looking.
When a derailment blocks a track, other trains in both directions are halted, and a a single soldier with a rocket can then blow up the locomotives as they stand idle. If lit by a fuse, the rocket can fire when the single soldier is long gone.