Merlin was careless?

Kakai wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Come now, Lyonheart, all those objections are easily addressed. Its obvious. Merlin got help from seijin Ahbram or seijin Dialydd.

No one realized it at the time, but that must have been what happened.

Now this is a good explanation for the masses. The seijin network's existence has been established some two-three years back in-universe, wasn't it? This should give some food for thought to all the Safeholdian conspiracy theorist. Seijin seems to be travelling too quickly? It wasn't him, it was another seijin. Job done looks like too much for one person to accomplish? He just called his seijin friends to help.

SWM wrote:The simplest explanation is that almost no one actually saw all that evidence that Merlin left laying around. And those who did see it had no incentive to poke around.

There may have been a dozen people on Safehold who actually saw anything that could be interpreted as contradicting the official story. And all of them were loyal soldiers, most of whom are quite willing to follow orders and not think overmuch about minor inconsistencies.

JeffEngel wrote:

lyonheart wrote:The growing impression of a Safehold wide organization directed by someone or some group other than Merlin that clearly supports the EoC and the CoC may be even more terrifying to those trying to explain away how Merlin has accomplished so many miracles; that he has lots of 'unseen' seijin help doesn't help them very much at all!

L

And it's got to give theologically minded Safeholders pause.

According to the Writ, if demons appear, angels will appear to fight them.

The EoC is benefiting from one or more of the following:
1) Improbable, even unbelievable luck
2) Seijins - plural even
3) Demons or demonic intervention
4) Angels or angelic intervention

Improbable, even unbelievable luck is - improbable, even unbelievable.

Seijins would indicate angelic approval of the "heretic" Church and Empire of Charis, against the Temple.

Demons or demonic intervention would be the popular mainland story, but those angels aren't showing. I wonder if Clyntahn isn't going to manufacture an angelic hoax out of desperation.

Angels or angelic intervention - well, that's the seijin problem again, but even worse for the Temple.

So Temple theologians have to believe in hidden angels, unbelievable enemy luck, error in the Writ - or that God Himself is favoring the other side through His agents.

Rhobair Duchairn isn't willingly blind to evidence anymore, and he is well informed. I think this line of thought has to be weighing on him heavily by now. Trynair, Rayno, Magwair are all also well informed enough, but can probably live with Writ error in Rayno's case or carefully not think about this sort of thing in Magwair's case. Trynair, I figure, may go either of those ways - or start getting uncomfortable, if Duchairn's recovery of conscience starts wearing off on him.

Clyntahn, of course, can twist anything around to his point of view. I suspect he's opting for improbable luck in the form of a vast heretic conspiracy - as vast as it takes to justify what he does.

lyonheart wrote:While the Royal Guard may have been ordered to keep quiet in cleaning up Duke Tyrian's townhouse NTM the first assassins, don't you think stories about how the bodies were so slashed, indicating the incredible strength the seijin must have, soon leaked out to Tellesberg and the rest of Charis?

So I think it's quite possible that some in Dancer's crew saw signs of a seijin's 'handiwork', certainly the royal/imperial investigators who'd seen its like before and may have wondered then if there were other seijins since Merlin was so far away.

n7axw wrote:I find myself wondering if the joker in the deck might not turn out to be Magwair. He has been developing into a more sympathetic character lately and he is more aware that Clyntahn has been lying to him. He has to be getting tired of it.

I wonder where this will go next...

Don

JeffEngel wrote:

n7axw wrote:I find myself wondering if the joker in the deck might not turn out to be Magwair. He has been developing into a more sympathetic character lately and he is more aware that Clyntahn has been lying to him. He has to be getting tired of it.

I wonder where this will go next...

Don

I'm sure he's tired of it. I imagine one thing he's doing is cultivating his own intelligence sources and his own routes of communication with his commanders. One may be through Duchairn's logistics clerks - any commander worth a fig is going to be listening to them, many intendents won't be, and one of his likely alternative intelligence sources will be Duchairn's accountants, bailiffs, treasury officials, etc. In effect, all Magwair has to do is tap into Duchairn's net and encourage it to share information with the senior field army officers.

Magwair's getting more confident, more savvy, and less enamored of Clyntahn, but that's a far cry from actually opposing him. Magwair still believes in the jihad and wants to win it. He may not care for Clyntahn's interference, disdain, atrocities, or dishonesty, but their goals are too similar for him to work against Clyntahn for now.

PeterZ wrote:I work under the assumption that many Reformists within the Empire and in Siddermark still cherish a desire to reform and reconstitute the Church rather than shatter it forever. An insightful few know better. They know that a true rapprochement will never happen. If Duchairn and Magwair offer an opportunity to reform the CoGA peacefully, that opportunity might well be taken. The Reformist will resist reunification and the Loyalists will resist giving up their centralized authority, but elements on both sides will work towards a suitable compromise. At one point everyone will realize no meaningful compromise will be reached and hostilities will resume or both sides will be sick to death of a hot war and settle for a cold war.

JeffEngel wrote:

PeterZ wrote:I work under the assumption that many Reformists within the Empire and in Siddermark still cherish a desire to reform and reconstitute the Church rather than shatter it forever. An insightful few know better. They know that a true rapprochement will never happen. If Duchairn and Magwair offer an opportunity to reform the CoGA peacefully, that opportunity might well be taken. The Reformist will resist reunification and the Loyalists will resist giving up their centralized authority, but elements on both sides will work towards a suitable compromise. At one point everyone will realize no meaningful compromise will be reached and hostilities will resume or both sides will be sick to death of a hot war and settle for a cold war.

There's a third option. It's one that settles wars often enough, historically. At least one side accepts that living without all they want is better than continued fighting and lets the next generations grow to accept it - grudging peace instead of cold war.

That does likely favor the national churches over a restored world church in this case. I don't see Siddarmark as all that enthused about renewing a war like this if it can be ended in a way that offers a reasonable assurance of safety for its people, its national integrity, and its own Reformist clergy.