CoGA submarines

Seems that i must explain myself. For a relatively long time, i've been closely connected with the russian alternate history fiction society. Currently, this genre here is plagued by so-called "popandantzev" (the ironic therm, which means "somebody who suddenly ends up in the past and started to mess up with history").

Generally, a awful lot of this stories adhere monotonous pattern - some men from our time (usually former military) suddenly appeared in some turbulent period of the past (usually 1941, 1936, 1917, 1914 or 1904) and started to mess up with everything, doing all the possible cheating to the author's favorable side to win. Generally, it means that the "popandanetz" implements the more advanced, purified technology (usually, he carry some database in the past - laptop with a lot of data that "just suddenly" appeared to be blueprints, schematics, weapon specification, ect. ect. ect.). By doing that, "popandanetz" - i.e. author - usually disregarded any technologically constrains, scientific level, resources and other capabilites. Stalin started to make supersonic jet fighters in 1942? Sure! The Russian Empire produce T-55 tank in 1914? What could be simpler! The authors simply disregard as insignificant any technological problems, industrial shortages and other things.

And i'm very worried, that i saw (repeat, it's just my concern) signs of this in recent Safehold books. The reasons and explanation of "how-they-were-able-to-do-so", that were such a good part of first books, simply disappeared in later. For example, we knew, how much work Charisian made to obtain shells for their gun; we knew about unsucsessfull experiments, about attempts to solve the problems. We didn't see many of this that later. They "simply obtain" breechloading artillery, "simply decided to build KH's", "simply decided to use landmines"... ect., ect., ect.

Please believe me; i would be VERY GLAD TO BE COMPLETELY WRONG ABPUT THIS. Still, i have reasons to worry.

Dilandu wrote:Seems that i must explain myself. For a relatively long time, i've been closely connected with the russian alternate history fiction society. Currently, this genre here is plagued by so-called "popandantzev" (the ironic therm, which means "somebody who suddenly ends up in the past and started to mess up with history").

Generally, a awful lot of this stories adhere monotonous pattern - some men from our time (usually former military) suddenly appeared in some turbulent period of the past (usually 1941, 1936, 1917, 1914 or 1904) and started to mess up with everything, doing all the possible cheating to the author's favorable side to win. Generally, it means that the "popandanetz" implements the more advanced, purified technology (usually, he carry some database in the past - laptop with a lot of data that "just suddenly" appeared to be blueprints, schematics, weapon specification, ect. ect. ect.). By doing that, "popandanetz" - i.e. author - usually disregarded any technologically constrains, scientific level, resources and other capabilites. Stalin started to make supersonic jet fighters in 1942? Sure! The Russian Empire produce T-55 tank in 1914? What could be simpler! The authors simply disregard as insignificant any technological problems, industrial shortages and other things.

And i'm very worried, that i saw (repeat, it's just my concern) signs of this in recent Safehold books. The reasons and explanation of "how-they-were-able-to-do-so", that were such a good part of first books, simply disappeared in later. For example, we knew, how much work Charisian made to obtain shells for their gun; we knew about unsucsessfull experiments, about attempts to solve the problems. We didn't see many of this that later. They "simply obtain" breechloading artillery, "simply decided to build KH's", "simply decided to use landmines"... ect., ect., ect.

Please believe me; i would be VERY GLAD TO BE COMPLETELY WRONG ABPUT THIS. Still, i have reasons to worry.

To be clear - that's not the complaint with regard to the ironclad galleons without steam engines? That one is more that they didn't include one as soon as they did have tested steam engines for ships?

I do see where you are coming from, but I think we've got reason to suppose RFC is playing fair. For one thing, Safehold's pre-Merlin tech base could be described as on the very verge of the Industrial Revolution, but with (1) relatively undeveloped gunpowder-related technology for the time, just waiting for a few ideas to take off, (2) the Proscriptions keeping power restricted to wind, water, and muscle (plus, er, gunpowder) and the scientific method discouraged on the mainland, and (3) lots of benefits of technology without understanding courtesy of the Archangels: fleming moss, perfect cartography, a practical substitute for the germ theory of disease, good sanitation, pasteurization (and pressure cooking), grown fibers that are as good as 20th century synthetics, awesome draft animals, etc. And the tech base was far more even across Safehold than across Earth, ever, with communications, shared language, and the Church knitting it all into a loose global community.

What Merlin and the Inner Circle have done is largely a few things to get gunpowder applications rolling - taking advantage of all the rest of Safehold's technology and infrastructure - and encouragement for Charis's early moves in developing actual science, particularly with regard to systematic testing.

Safehold in general and Charis in particular were well-primed for industry. Warfare makes for pressurized weaponry development. Langhorne and Bedard didn't get how much industry would fall out of water power particularly, or how industry will encourage technology and technology encourage science. Pressure cooking and pasteurization called for some good metallurgy, so once gunpowder was on the scene, it didn't have to wait for basic technologies to catch up too much to do some radical things.

It's still an option to complain about how well Safehold was primed for Merlin. For my part, I'm satisfied enough with that, factoring in Langhorne and Bedard's weak grasp on development relationships and the early decapitation of the command crew before they could learn from mistakes. It may have helped that what happened is exactly what Pei Shan-wei predicted and got her killed - admitting she was right was not politically possible for the remaining "angels".

JeffEngel wrote:
I do see where you are coming from, but I think we've got reason to suppose RFC is playing fair. For one thing, Safehold's pre-Merlin tech base could be described as on the very verge of the Industrial Revolution,

Yes, but the way from verge of industrial revolution to the high-developed industry, capable of building late-XIX century warships is pretty long. Up until the recent books, all seems to be in logical line; the new technology go spet by step, and was within the capabilites. Or at least we have sufficient description, how that capabilites would be created. But later... it just started to appear when it needed, without real explanation. It's just "oh, breech-loading guns are cool, we should build them". No considreation were given to how logical it would be to divert production capabilites, limited supply of trained workforce, high-grade steel, how hard it would be to mantain the new breech-loaders - much more demanding to the field conditions - in real warfare. It's just seems that the Charis have virtually unlimited industrial potential, and could build EVERYTHING in the same time.

And that's what worried me.

Safehold in general and Charis in particular were well-primed for industry. Warfare makes for pressurized weaponry development.

To be well-primed for industry and to create industry is two different things. Especially if you are forced to create all by yourself. Especially if you are also locked in large-scale warfare and your industry just lost a lot of trading partners. Simply speaking - if you need smutaneously to build weapons and build industrial tools (for building more weapons), you must very carefully maneuvre between to extremes; "stop building tools, we need guns immediatly" and "scrap the guns, we need more factories running".

Dilandu wrote:Seems that i must explain myself. For a relatively long time, i've been closely connected with the russian alternate history fiction society. Currently, this genre here is plagued by so-called "popandantzev" (the ironic therm, which means "somebody who suddenly ends up in the past and started to mess up with history").

Generally, a awful lot of this stories adhere monotonous pattern - some men from our time (usually former military) suddenly appeared in some turbulent period of the past (usually 1941, 1936, 1917, 1914 or 1904) and started to mess up with everything, doing all the possible cheating to the author's favorable side to win. Generally, it means that the "popandanetz" implements the more advanced, purified technology (usually, he carry some database in the past - laptop with a lot of data that "just suddenly" appeared to be blueprints, schematics, weapon specification, ect. ect. ect.). By doing that, "popandanetz" - i.e. author - usually disregarded any technologically constrains, scientific level, resources and other capabilites. Stalin started to make supersonic jet fighters in 1942? Sure! The Russian Empire produce T-55 tank in 1914? What could be simpler! The authors simply disregard as insignificant any technological problems, industrial shortages and other things.

And i'm very worried, that i saw (repeat, it's just my concern) signs of this in recent Safehold books. The reasons and explanation of "how-they-were-able-to-do-so", that were such a good part of first books, simply disappeared in later. For example, we knew, how much work Charisian made to obtain shells for their gun; we knew about unsucsessfull experiments, about attempts to solve the problems. We didn't see many of this that later. They "simply obtain" breechloading artillery, "simply decided to build KH's", "simply decided to use landmines"... ect., ect., ect.

Please believe me; i would be VERY GLAD TO BE COMPLETELY WRONG ABPUT THIS. Still, i have reasons to worry.

Build a T-55 in Russia in 1914? Good grief, The US would have been very hard pressed to build an M-4 Sherman in 1914 even with full plans. The Ford flathead v-8 was cutting edge tech in 1932, and it was still an L-head design, I think the engines in the M-4 were overhead valve designs. I am more used to seeing the claim that if Hitler had not interfered the Me-262 could have entered service and changed the war in 1943, when it could not have due to engine reliability problems, and when it did enter service in 1944 it still had problems with engine lifespan.

I do agree that the development of many technologies seems incredibly shortened. Some of this is due to most of us assuming too low of a tech level for building on, but much just seems improbably short, i.e. the discussions about where are they going to get all the ammo for those M-96 rifles. Drawing and forming metal is probably more advanced than the ~Renaissance level many of us assumed in the beginning, but at the same time what would you draw and form metal for if you are not making cartridges? The blanks for drawing into cartridges would be very similar to coins, but how many coins would be made? Enough to justify a ganged punch?

Castenea wrote:Build a T-55 in Russia in 1914? Good grief, The US would have been very hard pressed to build an M-4 Sherman in 1914 even with full plans. The Ford flathead v-8 was cutting edge tech in 1932, and it was still an L-head design, I think the engines in the M-4 were overhead valve designs.

I agree; it's just ridiculous. But a awful lot of authors in Russia are writing just like that; they really think that the single "popadanyetz" with laptop (on which, by chance, he store a lot of blueprints and schematics to everything) could build T-55 in 1914th Russian Empire!

Drawing and forming metal is probably more advanced than the ~Renaissance level many of us assumed in the beginning, but at the same time what would you draw and form metal for if you are not making cartridges? The blanks for drawing into cartridges would be very similar to coins, but how many coins would be made? Enough to justify a ganged punch?

I agree completely. Even if we assume that the Charis before Merlin actually have a early XIX-century level of metallurgy, it's still very far away from what they do now. As i recall, in 1810th James Watt proudly claimed, that he was able to fit together cylinder and piston so carefully, that the golden coin could not fit in clearance. Would this level of precision manufacturing fit for the reliable breechloading guns or triple-expansion engines, even if you have complete specification for them? I really doubt that; the level of machine tools accuracy must go far further the 1810th to make such things possible.

Castenea wrote:...what would you draw and form metal for if you are not making cartridges?

Copper Tubing for plumbing.

Dilandu wrote:
I agree completely. Even if we assume that the Charis before Merlin actually have a early XIX-century level of metallurgy, it's still very far away from what they do now. As i recall, in 1810th James Watt proudly claimed, that he was able to fit together cylinder and piston so carefully, that the golden coin could not fit in clearance. Would this level of precision manufacturing fit for the reliable breechloading guns or triple-expansion engines, even if you have complete specification for them? I really doubt that; the level of machine tools accuracy must go far further the 1810th to make such things possible.

I think you are a little pessimistic about how tight the tolerances can be, but this involves questions of quantity. There are many examples of very tight tolerance items dating back to the Classical Greece, but almost all of those were one-offs. For an example of what can be done if you have a skilled craftsman making a one of a kind item try this video: https://youtu.be/73txXT21aZU

Castenea wrote:I think you are a little pessimistic about how tight the tolerances can be, but this involves questions of quantity. There are many examples of very tight tolerance items dating back to the Classical Greece, but almost all of those were one-offs. For an example of what can be done if you have a skilled craftsman making a one of a kind item try this video: https://youtu.be/73txXT21aZU

On the one-off level, you could, of course, produce very high-quantity components. But it would cost a lot, took a lot of time, and this components would be avaliable only in very small numbers. It is possible, in theory, build triple-expansion engine by manual adjustment of parts to each other; and after a decade or two of craftsmanship, this engine may even actually work. But it's impossible to do this on industrial scale.

Dilandu,

It may help to remember that David has told us that it is incorrect to think of Safehold as a pre-industrial society before Merlin came along. In actuality, many aspects of Safehold life was far more advanced than that. Some aspects of Safehold were 17th century level, but others were 18th or 19th century level. Some were almost 20th century level.

You can't really compare it to historical Earth. That may be causing some (but perhaps not all) of the dissonance you feel.

SWM wrote:Dilandu,

It may help to remember that David has told us that it is incorrect to think of Safehold as a pre-industrial society before Merlin came along. In actuality, many aspects of Safehold life was far more advanced than that. Some aspects of Safehold were 17th century level, but others were 18th or 19th century level. Some were almost 20th century level.

I didn't considered Safehold or Charis as pre-industrial society. But there is a different level of industrial society. The Britain in 1801 were industrial more than enough - in most industrial spheres beyound pre-Merlin Charis - but still could not do anything on the Charisian scale. And per-Merlin Charis didn't have:

- Arabic numbers and advanced mathematic - at all
- Newton mechanics - at all
- Scientific approaches - almost completely nothing. The "Royal College", in comparsion with early-XIX century level is completely insignificant.

With all respect, this is far too much. It's below not just the 1800th, but 1700th and even 1600th level.

You can't really compare it to historical Earth. That may be causing some (but perhaps not all) of the dissonance you feel.

The principal patterns of civilization development is generally the same in all Earth models. Of course, the Safeholdian situation have no direct analogues, but have similarites.