(SPOILERS) The solution to Baron Green Valley's logistic qua

Hi Henry Brown,

If a 15,000 pound dragon can move a well sprung articulated 30 ton wheeled wagon 40 miles in a day, how many much smaller animals like snow lizards can achieve the equivalent performance (or something near it) with sleds and sleighs which have far more surface friction?

Given the limitations of load and distance that horses pulling a wagon had on unimproved roads or tracks were limited to a 100 mile radius over 5-7 days, which is why canals were such an improvement in transportation, can the various animals be totally supplied by the sleigh born fodder they tow while carrying all the other gear and rations the advance guard requires?

While BGV's quartermasters are certainly competent is an excellent point, the large numbers of transport animals; ie thousands of horses, caribou and snow lizards, even at half or 2/3 the normal [30 lb] ration for the horses means up to a hundred tons per day if there are ten thousand High Hallows at 20 pounds per horse per day, or 13,333 High Hallows at 15 pounds per day; while the caribou at their weight should be near the same, and several thousand would make a daily total of 150 tons per day before adding the men and the snow lizards which are only around a ton or so in size compared to the up to 15,000 lb dragons, requiring 3-4 to tow the same load apparently, but if their ration is proportional to their size [~13.33% @], then an individual ration is somewhere between 56-77 pounds per day [depending on which daily rate of consumption for dragons chosen], or up to 231 pounds for 3 per sleigh they're towing, which eats up the useful load on the sleigh they can move before they run out of on-board fodder, because 6000 snow lizards would thus require 169-232 tons per day.

We also don't know the size of BGV's advance winterized force but given the scouts and engineers, at least 10,000, and quite easily 12,000 men with attached artillery and cavalry, who eating more to stay warm while exercising so much might need 4 pounds per man, not 3, per day, which means 20-24 tons every day.

If, as I suggested in my original post, BGV's daily advance is much faster than we've suggested in the past [ie ~20 miles/day], the absolute total tonnage is dramatically reduced, but its still a bear for those who have to get it there.

It may be the advance force has only half that many snow lizards and 75% of the horses and caribou to get to the daily ~250 ton figure [I can't find my original notes at the moment], but even spread over 20 days [or advancing ~30 miles per day] moving 5000+ tons of supplies eventually 600 miles solely by animal power is some trick.

However, since that leaves BGV only halfway to Guarnak, a major resupply, getting an entire fresh supply train or in effect a second stage, is required, and waiting for the supplies well behind to catch up with you seems counter indicated if you're trying to move quickly.

Now it may also be possible that the ice boats, if they weren't prepositioned as my original post suggested from Ranshair, might be part of the advance force's extra 'inedible' baggage, to be assembled and sent to Ranshair up river when they reach it; either way as the New York-Albany etc races indicate its quite possible to travel the necessary distances, particularly given the higher latitude [than NY-Albany] and Safehold's generally colder climate.

L


[quote="Henry Brown"]I think you are onto something regarding the effectiveness of steel runners for transporting supplies in winter conditions. I just am not sure that the runners are going to be attached to an ice boat. I think they will just use regular sleds pulled by draft animals.

We already saw textev in one of the snippets that BGV's force has small sleds integrated into the army on a squad level. These are more or less a tactical transport system, designed to keep up with the troops and only move the winter gear assigned to the squad.

Although we haven't seen them, I think it is a fairly safe assumption that the quartermasters of BGV's army are using much larger sleds in the baggage train to manage logistics on a strategic level. Given the effectiveness of steel runners on ice, the draft animals of BGV's army should be able to move considerably larger loads than they would using wheeled wagons under summer conditions. With this in mind, I think that the logistics of BGV's army might be in better shape than you are assuming.[/quote]

Hi Don,

To review, Castenea's suggested crane while quite possible isn't necessary because the lock gates are kept open during the winter to avoid the ice expansion damage they'd get if they were closed, which is why sleighs are normally so common in and on the canals during the winter.

BGV intends to travel some 1200 miles to Guarnak, plus carry the supplies needed during the interval his blocking force in the Sylman on Lake Wyvern needs to advance the 200 miles to Guarnak under probably rather muddy conditions if not much enemy opposition, for at least 60-70 days, for 10-12,000 men and probably twice as many animals could total over 18,000 tons that must all be carried from Allyntyn, a ridiculously huge amount that diminishes the odds of success no matter how willing the animals are, and far too risky without being resupplied from Ranshair, the best way for that being via ice boats or ice yachts etc.

Online articles on ice yachts cite triangular races to ensure sailing into the wind, and all the small racers ask is safe ice- ie just 4" thick for the smallest racers on a lake, obviously much less on a solid supporting surface.

The canal water level may have been far too shallow for barges, but a foot or two may be all the heavier ice boats and yachts may need even carrying large loads.

On a frozen canal on Safehold that far north, all the water has been ice for month's, and even if slightly thawed by the time BGV gets to the Guarnak-Ice Ash Canal [late March], probably still refreezes overnight, in effect resurfacing the roadway, NTM the potential for traveling by moonlight.

I can't help but wonder if the smallest ice racers might be able to travel on even the frozen high roads, mainly for messenger work, or in the adjacent frozen gutters depending on traffic.

L

n7axw wrote:

Castenea wrote:*quote="n7axw"*Then the question of getting the sleds past the locks which has already been mentioned. We know that the iceboats work for the temple, but that is actually crossing a lake where there is lots of room and no locks. It might work as Lyonheart has described, but I think that there could well be some problems to be solved to make it so.

Don*quote*
Rather straight forward brute force solution to that, set up a gantry crane. Pick up the sled in front of on end of the locks, set it down on the other side. Take the crane down about the time spring thaw arrives. Supports for the gantry would be set on either side of the locks.

This kind of demonstrates that often where there is a will there is a way. One would still need a prevailing wind in the direction the supplies would need to go and haul them back with slow lizzards the other, or failing that use the carribou and slow lizzards both directions.

Of course, we really don't have any textev that BGV is having a problem at all... so all this could be a solution looking for a problem.

Don

The basic problem is that as usual you aren't checking your assumptions. The assumption rack is over there, right beside the door. Please stop on your way in; that pretty lady will be happy to hand you a receipt.

The key ones are that the Guarnak-Ice Ash Canal is in any way usable to start with, and that you can somehow move ice-boats up and down it in winter without animal draft.

I'm not sure where you would have gotten the first idea from, if you've read LAMA - it's absolutely clear that the canals are being repaired from west to east, for the purpose of re-establishing the supply line for the Army of the Sylmahn. The Ice Ash line is of no use whatsoever in that endeavour, and any resources devoted to repairing it will have been purely local. It going to be pretty much still in the condition our friend Bahrns left it in. The implications of that are considered below.

Your second assumption is really a whole slew of them, not all of which I can address - I'm a piss-poor sailor, for example, so while I know that _i_ most certainly wouldn't be able to tack up wind in a 60' channel, or keep an ice boat off the lee wall of the canal in anything above a light breeze - if then - I can't certify that a brilliant ship-handler couldn't pull it off. I'd cheerfully bet the farm against it, but I don't _know_.

What I can say is that if there's any ice for them to move on, it's between closed locks. You clearly missed the discussion of this [between, IIRC, Duchairn and Maigwair] in which it is stated that the canals damaged during the raid would not be usable during the winter because so much of the bed was either stone dry or at best disconnected pools. You also seem to have missed the implications of that scene in LAMA with the engineer surveying the _on-going_ erosion of a canal because of the destruction of the control structures at the upstream end. Opening the gates along the course of a canal will give you one of 2 conditions: a dry canal bed or one with a stream flowing down the center that in many locations will, as shown in the books, be too fast to permit safe ice to form, and where it isn't, quite often it will be too narrow to fit the runners across. Canal beds, at least the ones I've had a chance to look at, are _not_ flat, for a variety of reasons relating to ease of construction and maintenance and the fact that at various times of the year they rather strongly resemble streams in their own right. What that means is that when drained there isn't a sheet of water covering the full width.

Now, back to the Guarnak-Ice Ash. As you may have noticed, it was one of the canals damaged in the raid. From what we know, on the upstream leg from the Ice Ash [which, BTW, has a couple of flights of locks of its own that you would have to portage around] Bahrns left the upstream gate of every flight intact, so he'd have something to float his boat, but we have no reason to believe he did that on the downstream leg, since it was the locks he hadn't reached yet that were holding his water. What that means is that there _could_ still be water - now ice-covered - in some of the segments between the river and the Ohlarn Gap. However, where any of those gates have been opened - to permit inspection of damage upstream, say, or to relieve pressure because of too much water accumulating, or just because nobody knew Green Valley was going to be wanting to use them - those segments are going to be empty. And the odds are very good that they've _all_ been opened, because if you open any of the upstream gates, you'll overflow the banks downstream. That tends to get the people who live in the neighbourhood rushing over to open _their_ gate, which shifts the whole issue down to the next one, only with even more water, and so on...

Now, on the other side of the height of land, it's not likely that anybody had to decide whether or not to open surviving gates, because it's not likely that there are any surviving gates. Which means that there's not going to be a heck of a lot of water in the upper segements of the canal, for reasons already explained. In fact, if the sailors haven't already pinched my farm, I'll bet it again that 1/2 or more of the canal bed is bone dry and has been since the raid. I would doubt that there's any way to refill it, either, since the associated water works would have been blown as well, as would any on the Ice Ash side that could be hit without stranding the raiders.

In short, however its water levels might be adjusted in a normal winter, the canal is not in normal condition this winter, and its most likely condition is "empty". Just for fun, though, let's assume that, somehow, with gates open you end up with enough water covering the entire canal bed to make an ideal skating rink. That brings us to...

Have you ever _seen_ an empty lock? Or even watched one in operation? Any idea what a set of locks looks like? I'll answer that last one for you: it's a giant stair case. With steps up to 20' high, and sometimes more. Did you really think anyone was going to go blithely sailing up and down a giant stair case in ice boats? _Any_ vehicle using the canal is going to have to be hoisted through or around the locks. That's why the locks are there to begin with! They're hydraulic hoists!

That, finally, brings us to the really egregious assumption: that there's a problem looking for your brilliant solution. Those numbers you're waving around really, really need to be discussed with the Army of Midhold's Quartermaster. Unfortunately, he seems to be incommunicado at the moment. I can assure you, however, that it is much, much easier to move heavy loads during the winter. In fact, the major issue is going to be a _lack_ of friction where it's needed. It's not a simple matter moving a multi-ton load when your draft animals are red splotches half-way down the hill.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Don,

To review, Castenea's suggested crane while quite possible isn't necessary because the lock gates are kept open during the winter to avoid the ice expansion damage they'd get if they were closed, which is why sleighs are normally so common in and on the canals during the winter.

BGV intends to travel some 1200 miles to Guarnak, plus carry the supplies needed during the interval his blocking force in the Sylman on Lake Wyvern needs to advance the 200 miles to Guarnak under probably rather muddy conditions if not much enemy opposition, for at least 60-70 days, for 10-12,000 men and probably twice as many animals could total over 18,000 tons that must all be carried from Allyntyn, a ridiculously huge amount that diminishes the odds of success no matter how willing the animals are, and far too risky without being resupplied from Ranshair, the best way for that being via ice boats or ice yachts etc.

Online articles on ice yachts cite triangular races to ensure sailing into the wind, and all the small racers ask is safe ice- ie just 4" thick for the smallest racers on a lake, obviously much less on a solid supporting surface.

The canal water level may have been far too shallow for barges, but a foot or two may be all the heavier ice boats and yachts may need even carrying large loads.

On a frozen canal on Safehold that far north, all the water has been ice for month's, and even if slightly thawed by the time BGV gets to the Guarnak-Ice Ash Canal [late March], probably still refreezes overnight, in effect resurfacing the roadway, NTM the potential for traveling by moonlight.

I can't help but wonder if the smallest ice racers might be able to travel on even the frozen high roads, mainly for messenger work, or in the adjacent frozen gutters depending on traffic.

L

n7axw wrote:**quote="Castenea"***quote="n7axw"*Then the question of getting the sleds past the locks which has already been mentioned. We know that the iceboats work for the temple, but that is actually crossing a lake where there is lots of room and no locks. It might work as Lyonheart has described, but I think that there could well be some problems to be solved to make it so.

Don*quote*
Rather straight forward brute force solution to that, set up a gantry crane. Pick up the sled in front of on end of the locks, set it down on the other side. Take the crane down about the time spring thaw arrives. Supports for the gantry would be set on either side of the locks.

This kind of demonstrates that often where there is a will there is a way. One would still need a prevailing wind in the direction the supplies would need to go and haul them back with slow lizzards the other, or failing that use the carribou and slow lizzards both directions.

Of course, we really don't have any textev that BGV is having a problem at all... so all this could be a solution looking for a problem.

Don

Louis R wrote:The basic problem is that as usual you aren't checking your assumptions. The assumption rack is over there, right beside the door. Please stop on your way in; that pretty lady will be happy to hand you a receipt.

The key ones are that the Guarnak-Ice Ash Canal is in any way usable to start with, and that you can somehow move ice-boats up and down it in winter without animal draft.

I'm not sure where you would have gotten the first idea from, if you've read LAMA - it's absolutely clear that the canals are being repaired from west to east, for the purpose of re-establishing the supply line for the Army of the Sylmahn. The Ice Ash line is of no use whatsoever in that endeavour, and any resources devoted to repairing it will have been purely local. It going to be pretty much still in the condition our friend Bahrns left it in. The implications of that are considered below.

The Canals are probably being used to haul freight, it will just be a fraction of what can be hauled if there is any water in the canal. RFC has said that all of the canals have a tow path on each side (most historical canal only had one towpath), these will be carrying wagons. The problem is that canal boats can carry well over 300 tons of cargo with one draft animal, the biggest wagons on safe hold are 30 tons, and the large American freight wagons of the early 1800s were ~7 tons.

Have you ever _seen_ an empty lock? Or even watched one in operation? Any idea what a set of locks looks like? I'll answer that last one for you: it's a giant stair case. With steps up to 20' high, and sometimes more. Did you really think anyone was going to go blithely sailing up and down a giant stair case in ice boats? _Any_ vehicle using the canal is going to have to be hoisted through or around the locks. That's why the locks are there to begin with! They're hydraulic hoists!

That, finally, brings us to the really egregious assumption: that there's a problem looking for your brilliant solution. Those numbers you're waving around really, really need to be discussed with the Army of Midhold's Quartermaster. Unfortunately, he seems to be incommunicado at the moment. I can assure you, however, that it is much, much easier to move heavy loads during the winter. In fact, the major issue is going to be a _lack_ of friction where it's needed. It's not a simple matter moving a multi-ton load when your draft animals are red splotches half-way down the hill.

If you have trees or other good anchor points this is not an issue and one advantage of hauling along a canal towpath is that significant slopes will only be found near locks (generally a few feet downstream from the lock). Trees are used for friction brakes in combination with ropes, the draft animals may not even be in harness during this operation. Also these trees are much less likely to be removed as they will be protected by the lock keeper, as they are shade during hot summer days and possibly fruit trees.

You don't have to keep the tow path level, so they will be sloping upwards starting several hundred feet from the lock. the drover and boat captain deal with the changing distance by adjusting the tow rope [BTW, neither trade is nearly as unskilled as some people might think]

ISTR seeing references to locks where the teams were unhitched and the boats warped through using winches. Can't think which canals that would have been, so can't look it up, but that would be a simple way to deal with too much difference in height between tow path and water. I'd be rather surprised if the tow paths ever have grades reaching even 40% [1% is the norm for railways, I've driven on roads that exceeded 70% - scary!]

Castenea wrote:If you have trees or other good anchor points this is not an issue and one advantage of hauling along a canal towpath is that significant slopes will only be found near locks (generally a few feet downstream from the lock). Trees are used for friction brakes in combination with ropes, the draft animals may not even be in harness during this operation. Also these trees are much less likely to be removed as they will be protected by the lock keeper, as they are shade during hot summer days and possibly fruit trees.

Hi Weird Harold,
Thanks for your thoughts, that sparked my own.

In response to #1, the whole point of ice boats in the canal is the much greater distance traveled each day, and while snow lizards, caribou and horses could also use the dragon tow paths, only when there's no wind, which we don't have to worry about too much given how much more wind there is on Safehold, especially during their blizzards etc.

My main concern besides navigation in the 50 yard wide canals is how much wind they'd be getting at the bottom of the canal, ie around 16' below the tow path lip, but I suspect it would be enough to keep way on, and again I'm looking at rather slow speeds, only 8-12 mph during the day, plus any further time by moonlight for 9-13 hours a day to reach Guarnak far faster than Wyrshym knows is possible, like 5-7 days even if he learns they've taken Fairkyn.

#2. Excellent point which I'd thought I'd made plain enough, but thanks again.

#3. I suppose they could still use the sails on the wheeled wagons as some pioneers demonstrated on the prairies.

However I suspect the weather, even if thawing during the day will be freezing the water every night for 5days to come, so that extra utility won't be necessary for awhile.

#4. I suspect a rig that attempts to be all year round useful will fail or compare rather poorly to one designed for a particular single season.

Even if the ice boats had to be completely scrapped at the end of BGV's expected victorious campaign, it would be more than enough return on the investment, although I expect them to last much longer, to revolutionize RS's winter transportation until steam can make itself felt.

Please keep the good ideas coming.

L


[quote="Weird Harold"][quote="n7axw"]This kind of demonstrates that often where there is a will there is a way. One would still need a prevailing wind in the direction the supplies would need to go and haul them back with slow lizzards the other, or failing that use the carribou and slow lizzards both directions.[/quote]

A few random thoughts:

1) Summer-time canal traffic is powered by dragons on a "Mule Path;" Winter-time ice-rigger traffic doesn't need wind when a snow-lizard or reindeer can navigate the "Mule Path." Steel runners would still expand the tonnage that can be moved.

2) Whether the canal is full or drained isn't really important. I would probably be even better if there was less than a foot of water to freeze solid, since there would be no worries about falling through the ice.

3) If the steel runners were fixed in place of winter-time skis or wagon wheels in such a way that the could be lifted out of the way to resume more conventional suspension, worries about a dry canal or locks become a simple matter of raising the steel blades and/or building a ramp to the towpath or adjacent road.

4) Make sure the wagon/sled/barge is water-tight, and the same equipment can be used year round. Raise both blades and wheels, and you have a barge that can detour around damaged locks. Lower the steel blades and you've got a dismasted "Ice-rigger" that can be towed across/along any frozen surface. Lower a set of wheels/skis and you have a "land-barge" able to travel along high roads or back lanes as any other freight wagon might.[/quote]

Hi Don,

Good points!

It is a question for RFC for how much snow might pile up in the canals, and how much sunlight would have melted those piles into a flatter surface that could be navigated.

I'm betting BGV's force can cope.

L

n7axw wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:*quote="n7axw"*This kind of demonstrates that often where there is a will there is a way. One would still need a prevailing wind in the direction the supplies would need to go and haul them back with slow lizzards the other, or failing that use the carribou and slow lizzards both directions.*quote*

A few random thoughts:

1) Summer-time canal traffic is powered by dragons on a "Mule Path;" Winter-time ice-rigger traffic doesn't need wind when a snow-lizard or reindeer can navigate the "Mule Path." Steel runners would still expand the tonnage that can be moved.

2) Whether the canal is full or drained isn't really important. I would probably be even better if there was less than a foot of water to freeze solid, since there would be no worries about falling through the ice.

3) If the steel runners were fixed in place of winter-time skis or wagon wheels in such a way that the could be lifted out of the way to resume more conventional suspension, worries about a dry canal or locks become a simple matter of raising the steel blades and/or building a ramp to the towpath or adjacent road.

4) Make sure the wagon/sled/barge is water-tight, and the same equipment can be used year round. Raise both blades and wheels, and you have a barge that can detour around damaged locks. Lower the steel blades and you've got a dismasted "Ice-rigger" that can be towed across/along any frozen surface. Lower a set of wheels/skis and you have a "land-barge" able to travel along high roads or back lanes as any other freight wagon might.

Hi Harold,

Some real good thoughts here. I really like the wagon/sled/barge. Your thought about about the water level makes sense. A potential question about it is a point raised up thread about the possibility of the canal filling with snow during storms.

I would suppose though that you would face the same issue with snow drifting across roads. So you end having to cope with the issue either way.

Don

Hi PeterZ,

While there was speculation that BGV and Wyrshym would race for Five Forks, that assumed a later campaign season which RFC has apparently preempted, so our curiosity regarding Five Forks' name as indicating a future battle and surrender may involve the Harchong instead.

We're down to only 200 days until we can buy HFQ!

L

PeterZ wrote:Ah! Recall that some us believe BGV is headed further west with his vanguard. That vanguard containing only half of his arctic trained and equipped troops. That other half can shoot trough to Guarnak via the pass further east.

Mounting steel blades on those sleds will extend BGV's range using what supplies he has. That southern thrust will also clear a shorter route to resupply both BGV's deep thrust forces. That route is closer to Siddermark's canal system and by extension Charisian supply galleons.

Also, artillery mounted on steel bladed sleds can move quickly into position to fire on the GoGA defenders. Attacking directly accross the lake becomes much more feasible.

n7axw wrote:*quote="Castenea"*
Rather straight forward brute force solution to that, set up a gantry crane. Pick up the sled in front of on end of the locks, set it down on the other side. Take the crane down about the time spring thaw arrives. Supports for the gantry would be set on either side of the locks.*quote*

This kind of demonstrates that often where there is a will there is a way. One would still need a prevailing wind in the direction the supplies would need to go and haul them back with slow lizzards the other, or failing that use the carribou and slow lizzards both directions.

Of course, we really don't have any textev that BGV is having a problem at all... so all this could be a solution looking for a problem.

Don

Hi DennisLee,

If I haven't done so before, welcome to the forums and enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum.

Thanks for the data!

Perhaps the ice boats will need to be able to switch runners after all, with toboggan type runners as needed.

L

DennisLee wrote:I think the whole discussion overlooks the other component of winter weather, namely that (not so) fluffy white stuff called snow. Up here in Minnesota, most winters you would have to plow the lake before you could use an ice boat. And if you have a canal with low water level, that's just a ditch that will be full to the brim with drifted snow. Steel runners don't work well in snow, they just make it easier for your sleigh to sink in, you need a flat bottomed device like a toboggan.

lyonheart wrote:My main concern besides navigation in the 50 yard wide canals is how much wind they'd be getting at the bottom of the canal, ie around 16' below the tow path lip, but I suspect it would be enough to keep way on, and again I'm looking at rather slow speeds, only 8-12 mph during the day, plus any further time by moonlight for 9-13 hours a day to reach Guarnak far faster than Wyrshym knows is possible, like 5-7 days even if he learns they've taken Fairkyn.

That's the main problem with your idea; wind is fickle and unreliable. A typical real-world canal is definitely not wide enough for wind-power except when the wind is basically blowing directly down the canal in the direction of travel.

Consequently, you're going to have to pace your ice-riggers along the towpath with animal power to take over when the wind isn't favorable. It is just less trouble and time consuming to have the draft animals provide power full-time instead of trying to change from sails to draft animals and back again as the wind shifts or falters.