Should Safeholdians say NO to Gbaba war?

This was essentially Langhornes point. Just say no to the war, hide forever and never ever do something that might draw their attention ever again. Kinda sounding like a Langhorne apologist to be honest.

This was doomed to failure in the end, maybe not quickly but eventually. Either humans did get past the tech barriers that the Rakuri established (systems failing after tens of thousands of years) or the Gbaba would EVENTUALLY stumble into them. May take 50 thousand, or a hundred thousand, or who knows how many thousands of years. But it would have happened sooner or latter. Either way they run into the Gbaba and they won't be ready.

Merlin's way, they are.

I'm not sure who is actually right about whether a confrontation is inevitiable...Shanwei or Lanhorne. If the Gbaba are gradually expanding, then Shanwei is right and Safehold must prepare for the eventual encounter. If--and there does seem to be evidence to support this---, what the Gbaba are doing is dealing with threats to their own turf rather than expanding, then Langhorne may well be right. Safehold is probably far enough away from Gbaba turf not to be found.

But the safer course does seem to be to prepare.

Don

n7axw wrote:Transmitting radio signals probably is not as dangerous as You might think. They travel at the speed of light, emit in all directions, and lose energy as they go. Safehold is millions of light years from old Sol, iirc. That would mean that it would take a light speed signal that many years to get back to the Gbaba, assuming it didn't completely run out of energy.

That colony that was detected by the Gbaba before Operation Ark must have been tramsmiting FTL.


Don

Don, tiny nitpick. Safehold is located in the Milky Way. It can't be located more than 60 000 or so light years away from Earth.

No, even if the Gbaba are not expanding, Langhorne wasn't right. The evidence is apparent in the first novel. In spite of his controls, lots of things were slipping through the cracks like gunpowder, and it would just grow wider as time went on. It would take time. It would grow bloody. But eventually, Safehold would hit space.

And then, without the information from Merlin, it would be destroyed when it came upon the Gbaba again.

Icarium wrote:No, even if the Gbaba are not expanding, Langhorne wasn't right. The evidence is apparent in the first novel. In spite of his controls, lots of things were slipping through the cracks like gunpowder, and it would just grow wider as time went on. It would take time. It would grow bloody. But eventually, Safehold would hit space.

And then, without the information from Merlin, it would be destroyed when it came upon the Gbaba again.

Well, almost certainly. It is always possible that the civilization to get of Safehold was rabidly militant, and would push military tech to surpass the Federation, and have the numbers to fight the Gbaba. But I wouldn't want to bet the survival of the species on it.

akira.taylor wrote:

Icarium wrote:No, even if the Gbaba are not expanding, Langhorne wasn't right. The evidence is apparent in the first novel. In spite of his controls, lots of things were slipping through the cracks like gunpowder, and it would just grow wider as time went on. It would take time. It would grow bloody. But eventually, Safehold would hit space.

And then, without the information from Merlin, it would be destroyed when it came upon the Gbaba again.

Well, almost certainly. It is always possible that the civilization to get of Safehold was rabidly militant, and would push military tech to surpass the Federation, and have the numbers to fight the Gbaba. But I wouldn't want to bet the survival of the species on it.

The immediate question is whether or not Safehold's islolation would be whether or not Safehold's isolation would be sufficient to prevent the Gbaba from stumbling across them. Of course, visualizs Safehold getting out into space with modern tech, the whole equation changes and must be recalculated from Lanhorne's vision of a tech free Safehold.

Don

With Merlin's presence, how Safehold will expand into space would have been already affected and Safehold will go to space differently from how it was before.

The Terran Federation expand into 11-12 system outside sol without knowing what's out there. If they had known a species like Gbaba is out there when they first started out, I bet the Terran Federation would have expand much differently, maybe with a different focus like rapid expansion to match the Gbaba numbers or defensive focus like low emission colonies and having heavy stealth patrols to kill off any Gbaba scouts that comes near before they got a chance to report back home the existence of the Terran Federation.

Brog wrote:With Merlin's presence, how Safehold will expand into space would have been already affected and Safehold will go to space differently from how it was before.

The Terran Federation expand into 11-12 system outside sol without knowing what's out there. If they had known a species like Gbaba is out there when they first started out, I bet the Terran Federation would have expand much differently, maybe with a different focus like rapid expansion to match the Gbaba numbers or defensive focus like low emission colonies and having heavy stealth patrols to kill off any Gbaba scouts that comes near before they got a chance to report back home the existence of the Terran Federation.

Or, if they know where the Gbaba are at, they avoid expanding toward the Gbaba to avoid provoking a response. Until Safehold is strong enough to risk confronting the Gbaba, they should expand in the opposite direction of last known contact.

Don

Langhornes plan could/would work because the archangels are coming back in 20 years and they have an insurance policy in place (KEW).

Whether his plan should work is another question of course!

Alistair wrote:Langhornes plan could/would work because the archangels are coming back in 20 years and they have an insurance policy in place (KEW).

Whether his plan should work is another question of course!

You are leaping to conclusions in the absence of evidence.

First, we don't know what the return of the Archangels means. It does not necessarily mean that the "returned Archangels" will be in a position to actually change things if the plan is going awry. For instance, if it is just a hologram recording, it won't be able to physically do anything (though it might change mental attitudes). For that matter, we don't even know that the return of the Archangels was intended to bolster Langhorne's plan--there have been suggestions on this forum that it was a backstop plan by doubters.

Second, we only know that the Archangels will return after 1000 years. What about in 2000? 3000? Will the Archangels be returning for the next 10,000 years? Eventually, innovation is certain to rise; Safehold will either reach space or die in one disaster or another.

Third, we don't know that the KEW is actually active. Merlin is acting on the assumption that it is active and under orders to act independently, but he (and we) does not know that for certain. We don't know what orders it has, if any.

Fourth, even if it is active and would strike down any detected high-technology, we don't know what its limits are. Will it survive another 1000 years? 10,000? Has it already broken down? Are there circumstances where technology could arise that it doesn't detect in time?

Fifth, you are assuming that the KEW can stop incipient technological revolutions before it gets out of control. What if innovation and technology spread so far and so fast that the KEW cannot stop it without destroying large portions of the population? Will it do that? The extinction of Safehold is just as much a failure of Langhorne's plan to save the human race as the rise of a space-going technology would be.

The return of the Archangels and the KEW are not the guarantees of the perpetual success of Langhorne's plan that you think they are.