HFQ Official Snippet #28

Don, the problem is that what we know is not what the generality of the EoC know, and your extended treaty aims look a step too far for most of them as a consequence. In addition there is a basic philosophical problem; Archbishop Maikel cannot contend for freedom of conscience in religion on the one hand while the EoC refuses the rump of the CoGA the right to organise themselves as their conscience dictates on the other. So a central Vicarate is a given for the foreseeable future. And maybe the Inquisition operating in CoGA territory too, although that might be easier to ban, in theory at least. Once the war is over and the EoC returns to a peace-time military establishment how can they effectively police what the CoGA is doing in Harchong or the Temple Lands or Desnair?

lyonheart
We still don't know enough about Duchairn's coup plans, some of which seem likely to be revealed in the next snippet, if we get one...

WHAT?

I figured we were going to get details about that visit to Zion by Merlin and Aivah.

McGuiness wrote:
Revoke the requirement that everyone must visit the Temple during his/her life.

I don't think this is actually possible. The stipulation of visiting the Temple is explicitly part of the Writ, not something mandated by the Vicarate or CoGA in general. Charis can no more remove this stipulation than it can lift the Proscriptions.

And in the grand scheme of things, it's a pretty minor stipulation. Most people never get around to visiting the Temple anyway, even when they can afford to.

n7axw says
>abrupt

Macchiavelli recommends just that -- to get the nasty stuff done as soon as possible and as close to all at once as possible.

Narhmann's reaction to studying Macchiavelli was that he'd figured out most of it on his own already.

I don't think we should be overly worried about the Writ. Before the war the vicars were already making a mockery of it. Now the COGA is no longer the keeper of men's souls since the unity upon which that depended is shattered...although keeping souls has played second fiddle to power and wealth for a long time. The Writ is tainted by the enforcement of the Book of Schueler. And the Writ promised to intervene to preserve his church as the keeper of men's souls. God didn't.

As for the TLs, I'm not telling them to like it. I'm telling them to deal with it. I really don't even want a "purified" COGA with power to enforce its will on others. That would merely offer them the opportunity to regain its moral standing and prolong the time it took to get rid of the proscriptions.

Frankly I think getting rid of the central authority would force a breakup along national lines. That would put the bishop under the thumb of the prince rather than the other way around. After that has been said, as long as there is no coercive political power tied up with it, they could even reconsitute their central authority and use the Temple for their yearly enclave of archbishops.

To conclude, here is another thought. A COGA left battered and bruised becomes a rallying point. Ah, the TLs could think, God intervened and saved his church after all. The COGA smashed and flattened is another matter. Forced to reorganize no poltical power except in those countries that remain loyal and I would suspect reduced political power there, there really is no symbol for them to rally around.

Don

Hi McGuiness,

While I agree with you that the ICA generals are excellent, let's not go overboard with all the Homeric hubris, OK?

I think we all recognise the AoG most definitely had both vastly superior numbers and weapons' technology when Wyrshym and Kaitswyrth made their bloody drives last summer, so much so they didn't bother trying to spare their troops lives by trying to be clever.

Hanth actually had over 21,000 men in Thesmar when Harless made his attempt, so the odds were closer to 12-1 than over 20, but the attack should never have been made if Harless had been more rational or just a little more thoughtful.

Now thanks to the 8,000+ men of the 4th Brigade [despite losing a thousand plus man battalion] with the extra scout snipers and field artillery, he has over 30,000 men although at least 10,000 should be holding Thesmar.

Rychtyr's force wasn't that much bigger than Hanth's to start with [less than 20,000 men given how many went with Ahlverez], and the whole purpose of Delthak's attack [coordinated with Hanth's barrage] was to compel him to retreat to the east side of the Seridahn and thence to Everytyn and the Sheryl-Seridahn Canal rather than be cut off.

Having retreated in the face of the ironclad they can't fight, I rather strongly doubt Rychtyr plans on crossing the same river to attack Hanth any time soon.

So Hanth is in much better shape than you presented.

Since RFC doesn't write military porn, its more than possible that an alliance army could lose a battle, and that might be Hanth's, but given how far north Ahlverez is going, I don't see Hanth being surrounded yet.

I further suspect if General Symkyn, DE and EHM squash Kaitswyrth as indicated, that the Dohlarans would quickly withdraw back into Dohlar all on their own, rather than face one or more of those victorious NTM increasingly powerful armies.

Then I wonder exactly how do you expect the inner circle to reveal everything to Hanth?

What happens if he rejects it or wants to denounce everything immediately?

How do you fill that command hole?

Are you sure he won't break from the shock, since its got to happen to somebody?

In the forest fight, EHM's men had both revolvers and grenades, rather useful as the textev mentioned which certainly helped pushing the Dohlarans back.

DE has been amazing and I expect him to continue to shine, guided by the occasional seijin as needed.

BGV still has 2 month's to finish Wyrshym before the MHoG could even start marching from Lake City, almost a thousand miles from Guarnak as the wyvern flies, at least 1300 by river and canal, the only efficient way the MHoG can be supplied, plenty of time for lots of other things to happen that bode ill for the MHoG.

L

McGuiness wrote:

Aethor wrote:*quote="n7axw"*"Me? I think the temple and the inquisition have some fairly competent people in the field..."

Yeah, they manage everything but win. With the exception of Taisyn on the Daivyn who was just a tad bit outnumbered, the Temple has lost every battle where they couldn't match rifles against pikes...

Don*quote*To be fair, Charisians are winning only because they had cannon-armed galleons against galleys, newer model rifles vs old matchlock smoothbores and pikes, new vs old artillery, TF-level recon in some cases (SNARCs, and Merlin to go around in the scout skimmer), etc etc.

Some of the Church-aligned armies weren't very competent (Desnairians come to mind) but Temple regulars (Wyrshym's army comes to mind) are reasonably competent against same numbers and same level of technology.

If Charis had to fight on the same tech level as its enemies, it would have been defeated a while ago.

Before I break down my analysis general by general, let me note that the ICA has never fought a battle where they weren't heavily outnumbered! Kaitswyrth outnumbered DE ten to one, and DE almost caught the slash lizard when he trapped two-thirds of Kaitswyrth's troops against the river before his troops allowed them to escape. (Where is the M96 when you really need one, or a few thousand?) Or the machine gun we've been waiting for since the Mahndrayn was invented. Next book...

Hanth has been fighting his entire campaign without the aid of SNARCs, and his troops are rehabilitated Siddarmark militia with muzzle loading rifles, sailors he drafted from the fleet to fire naval guns (which comprise his field artillery) and a few thousand marines. He has a few thousand ICA troops who have Mahndrayn breech loading rifles, as do his marines. He also received some specialist ICA reinforcements, but over a thousand were drowned in storms before they reached him. When Harless attacked him, he was outnumbered over twenty to one. Fortunately there was only one avenue of attack, and naval gunners are very good at what they do!

The only major advantage Hanth has is the ironclad making its way up the river, and he'd better hope it's enough. Exactly what those hundreds of "special" shells are capable of, we aren't sure, but they'd better be enough to drive the Dohlarans out of Evrytyn and back to the Dohlaran border!

At Everytyn he's facing the St. Kylmahn breech loading rifle for the first time, as well as "the hand grenades Dohlar had duplicated, and the very first Church-designed rifled, muzzle-loading artillery." to quote LaMA.

Seriously, Hanth is going to find himself outgunned and outnumbered, while spread across a front close to 300 miles long. If the 50,000 ICA troops en route to who knows where aren't headed his way, we could see the defeat of an ICA "army" if you can call Hanth's cobbled together force such a thing.

Yes, Merlin will see it coming and Nimue may show up in her new persona to warn Hanth of the hornet's nest he's about to stick his head into, and those are Safeholdians hornets, so feel free to wince! I've been screaming for Hanth to be brought into the inner circle for ages now, and if they don't hurry up and do it, without the advantages of SNARCs and despite an occasional visit from a helpful seijin (or messages from one) he's in serious trouble.

I just hope the latest snippet that didn't have Duke Eastshare rushing down the high road to reinforce Hanth was faked in order to fool a CoGA spy in the midst of the ICA high command. If not... get ready to duck!

It's worth noting that DE won both of his major battles pretty much on his own, and HM got his troops into the Kyplynger forest to block the Desnairan supply route on his own as well, with one hint from Merlin. He fought the battle entirely on his own, and he didn't have time to set up a proper perimeter, so it was bayonet to bayonet for quite a while. The ICA won because they wanted it more and were much better trained, not because they had superior weapons. As usual, they were heavily outnumbered! (Like four to one, and that was without the Desnairan infantry moving in to assault them)

Don't underestimate the abilities of the allied generals - yes, they've had some advantages, but they've also been so heavily outnumbered in every battle that their success is due more to their troops superior training than having superior weapons, which at times they can't use. (As in the Battle of the Kyplynger Forest.)

Put every general in the inner circle, and I'd buy your argument. For now, the ICA is simply a more professional and capable army than anything the CoGA has put together. DE will never be a member of the inner circle because he's a true believer, yet he's the mastermind behind the victories in western Glacierheart and Fort Tairys, along with the Kyplynger forest.

BGV does have the advantage of full access to SNARCs, yet his troops managed to clear Midhold and most of Northland Province, with Mountaincross in the crosshairs. He sent his troops where he knew the enemy was, but his troops destroyed them. Soon I expect we'll see him crushing Wyrshym from both the northwest and the south, which will drive the AoSG into full retreat to the northwest, while trying not to starve or freeze.

Too bad the MHoG will be moving towards Wyrshym's survivors soon...

Hi Don,

It'd be nice if the CoGA and all the baddies could all be destroyed immediately, but you know that's not going to happen.

Just as the alliance can't conquer everything at once, the CoGA can't be broken all at once, so the CoGA will still be there for the next war, probably coming soon.

The CoGA will still be in control in northern Harchong and the western KotTL, and to a lesser extent all of Howard if their wyvern messages do delay their orders for over half Safehold's population, and we have no indication the inner circle has any problem with that, especially if they get access to the temple basement.

Having BGV steam up the Zion River this summer or fall and take the temple is precisely to make the point that the CoGA has failed at everything since they started the attack on Charis; which has triumphed ever since then, which unless the TL's want to believe God is trying to trick them [which for some is quite possible], might indicate who's side he's on.

Regarding your second point, Langhorne, the archangels, and the Holy Writ specify the double tithe, the KotTL, the vicarate and the Grand Vicar and Inquisitor; there are far too many TL's and reformists who will fight to preserve what they believe God ordained to try to punish the CoGA's holy purpose and organization when only the corrupt mortal men should be punished.

Zion isn't going away, not only will the pilgrims keep coming as they're supposed to, which Maikel has never opposed, but to also see the thing in the basement especially if it confirms the inner circle's beliefs who will then encourage even more pilgrims, to learn the truth, whenever that can be arranged.

Thirdly, demanding justice for the guilty doesn't mean ignoring how some TL's will treat them, as you may remember there's been some discussion as to when the inner circle will have it's 'Antietam moment' to publish all of Nynian's records.

While it might follow defeating Harless, or Wyrshym and Kaitswyrth, I suspect it won't come until after the MHoG are broken as well this summer, to top off all the victories, 'broadcast' by Owl on all his broadsheets, as well as mysteriously appearing pamphlets that are easier to hide and read privately for month's; meanwhile BGV suddenly appears on Zion's riverside and doorstep, taking the temple by guile or siege among other things.

After all, just how much reserve food is the temple likely to have on hand within if suddenly surprised, when its usually replaced daily?

Fourthly, compelling the CoGA to liquidate it's primary property holdings isn't a bad idea, indeed it's great!

Transferring the CoGA titles to all its lands within Siddarmark, Silkiah and Dohlar etc to each respective government after surrendering them to the alliance with the CoC and CoS etc holding the rest to dispose as they determine could promote quite a boom locally in each nation.

But let's be honest, it's unlikely that even that much property, remember its only that within the alliance territories [~half by population], developed and undeveloped, could still pay for all the vast damage caused by the SoS and the jihad in the RoS, so quite a bit will still come from the double tithes and other CoGA profits until the next war.

Who will be the baddies then?

L


[quote="n7axw"][quote="lyonheart"]Hi Don,

You left out ending and renouncing the jihad, which I believe you've mentioned before.

The problem is what is politically possible to achieve even a temporary peace.

1. I don't think temple loyalists will accept surrendering the temple in any shape or form peacefully, since its too much of a violation of Langhorne's laws and the Holy Writ etc.

OTOH, "sharing temple access for all pilgrims" sounds so much more diplomatic, doesn't it?

2. Dismantling the council of Vicars again strikes too close to the Holy Writ and how Langhorne set things up, NTM the Inquisition's purpose was God ordained, nor will any CoGA signer last long if he so constrains the inquisition.

It might be best to separately simply reiterate that inquisitors found in alliance territories have no such authority and if caught will suffer execution, thus generally freeing some 400-500 million people from it as well as limiting it's direct effect on Howard where another 310-320 million people live by cutting its land communications.

3. While I'd love war crimes trials for the political impact, the victims are going to be seen by the TL's as martyrs not criminals until some time, possibly a couple generations, has passed.

Though it might be fun for some of those caught for trial to be so shocked by the seijins who grabbed them that they admit they must be seijins...

4. How much do you figure that is?

This might be another thread if we get too bored before October 13th.

It's unlikely the CoGA or temple could afford to pay just reparations for the SoS and the jihad, even if there were no compensation for all those killed by the SoS [there almost riots in Israel when West Germany offered reparations for Jewish property in the early 1960's as gift rather than economic loans, for perceiving them as putting a price on their relatives lives], so about the best result might be TL's refusing to pay their double tithe to avoid giving anything to the heretics.

Documenting all the SoS atrocities, from their own reports, like those from Ferayd, have the best chance of making most TL's realise and accept them as fact, so getting whoever survives to open and publish the inquisition records and reports may do more good in the long run than half or quarter paid reparations.

Are all those records in the temple now, or would the Inquisition annex hold the older stuff?

We might need a thread again to attempt to consolidate what the alliance conditions are.



L

[/quote]

Hi Lyonheart,

1, The TLs are not accepting anything peacefully right now. The real reason for occupying the Temple is to make it plain to the TLs and everybody else that the COGA is no longer in control.

2.The point of dismantling the Council of Vicars and the central authority is to reduce the COGA to its local expressions and prevent it from regrouping to where it can make or break princes. The inquisition will continue to exist in those countries beyond allied reach. Whether or not this conforms to the Writ, the TLs need to be confronted with reality that their notion of the proper order of things is not the way it is. "Conforming to the Writ" gave Safehold the question, the punishment and the SoS to say nothing of pouring 20% of the resourses of Safehold into Zion for almost a thousand years. Best that Zion be gone.


3.Yes, the TLs, or at least a portion of them, will regard those convicted at the war crimes trials as martyrs, especially at first. But for those with brain cells to rub together, the public record of the trials will be there along with the accusations and the evidence. It's kinda hard to nominate torturers and murderers for sainthood, after all's said.


4.Despite of Duchairn's efforts, the COGA's holdings world wide are huge. It's as important to impoverish the COGA as it is to help Siddarmark. Let those holdings be liquidated to pay the reparations.

The point is that this should be harsh and abrupt. We know that there is another war over this coming. Let's at least arrange it so the COGA is not who organizes and trigures it.

Don[/quote]

Hi Lyonheart,

I agree that the COGA will still be there when all's said and done. The question is in what form.

I really have no objection to the TL's gathering in their own churches with their own priests or to organizing themselves beyond the parish in whatever manner they might choose.

The question really is how to render the COGA harmless for others who do not share their convictions to be around. I can't see how that might be accomplished if its hierarchy in Zion is left intact. Taking that route simply guarantees that they will serve as a rallying point for the TLs to gather around, take a deep breath and get ready for the next war. That may well be how RFC decides to play it. But standing inside the story, why should the EOC and the Republic settle for that, given the cost in lives and treasure of the war they have on their hands now?

Now regarding the Writ, I know that Safehold as a whole at least in some sense regards it as authoritive. I can only point out that the authority of the Writ is already being smashed. The Writ specifies the existence and dominance of the COGA in pretty much the way Merlin found it when he came on scene. To be sure, there has been some evolution such as the emerging dominance of the Order of Schueler. But not in the main. The Writ prescribes a world wide theocracy that rigorously enforces the proscriptions. If we were to honor that, Cayleb and Sharleyan just as well travel to Zion and throw themselves on the mercy of the inquisition!

Now I know full well that you are not suggesting that. But what I am saying is that with the defeat of the COGA, a new day arrives. The TLs have to come to grips with that. That new day means that the world wide dominance of the COGA in conformity with the Writ is past. If the TLs and others wish to honor the Writ in their personal lives and piety, that is fine right uup to the point where they start jamming it down the throats of the unwilling. But the bottom line here is that saying that the Writ says this or that is no longer a sufficient appeal for the ordering of public life.

Now I know full well that this is something that is in process rather than being fully accomplished. It is going to take a lot longer to sink in and take effect in places like Harchong and Desnair than it has in Charis. That is one of the reasons my own view is that the allied victory be made as clear as possible. God didn't step in and save the COGA at the last minute. So let's abolish the Council of Vicars. You say, but that's against the Writ. I say, tough banana. Deal with it. It's a new day.

Don

n7axw wrote:
<snip>

But what I am saying is that with the defeat of the COGA, a new day arrives. The TLs have to come to grips with that. That new day means that the world wide dominance of the COGA in conformity with the Writ is past. If the TLs and others wish to honor the Writ in their personal lives and piety, that is fine right uup to the point where they start jamming it down the throats of the unwilling. But the bottom line here is that saying that the Writ says this or that is no longer a sufficient appeal for the ordering of public life.

Now I know full well that this is something that is in process rather than being fully accomplished. It is going to take a lot longer to sink in and take effect in places like Harchong and Desnair than it has in Charis. That is one of the reasons my own view is that the allied victory be made as clear as possible. God didn't step in and save the COGA at the last minute. So let's abolish the Council of Vicars. You say, but that's against the Writ. I say, tough banana. Deal with it. It's a new day.

Don

Hi Don

I think the thing is that you believe a modern, western, (particularly USA) view of religion is right and obvious and applicable to Safehold. This shows up explicitly in your distinction between personal piety and the ordering of public life. Practically everyone on safehold doesn't think like that. They reckon that kings should 'study the book of the law and not let it depart from their mouths day or night' (excuse the loose OT quotation). Or, in other words, that religion should be pervasive and rightly directs public policy as well as private devotion. So they are not going to want a secularised division of church and state.

If religious freedom means anything (and it certainly does to Maikel) they are entitled to organise their church and state according to those beliefs. (Even Revisionists, who may not want the Temple to direct public policy, certainly want godliness, as they understand it, to direct public policy.) Clearly official policy in the Alliance does not believe that freedom extends to coercing others. The CoGA will have to agree to give up trying to enforce their view of religion where other churches are in existence 'abroad' and maybe give some assurances of some kind of religious freedom at home for those who are part of other churches.

Beyond that it gets practically impossible. Consider that the whole educational, welfare, legal, medical, and long distance communication system is run by the church. The various states are not remotely equipped to take that over and a great many of the workers conscientiously believe the church should do those things and may well refuse to work for a 'usurping' national government. Moreover, tithes pay for them. The CoGA may well decide that those who don't pay shouldn't benefit, in good capitalist style. While you are on a war footing and have your pistol at their head you can get people or governments to promise practically anything. Come the peace and the restoration of a peacetime economy, how on earth (or Safehold) could you enforce it? The EoC or even the Alliance cannot garrison the whole of Safehold.

Historical opinion seems pretty convinced the 'severe' terms of the peace treaties at the end of WW1 were one of the roots of WW2. The Inner Circle may be pretty convinced that 'Round 2' is inevitable, but how can they persuade the rest of the population of Charis that they are being reasonable if they act on that at the end of this war?

'Politics is the art of the possible', as someone said. In this case, the kind of demolition of the CoGA you are calling for doesn't seem to me to be remotely politically or philosophically possible.

Randomiser wrote:
Hi Don

I think the thing is that you believe a modern, western, (particularly USA) view of religion is right and obvious and applicable to Safehold. This shows up explicitly in your distinction between personal piety and the ordering of public life. Practically everyone on safehold doesn't think like that. They reckon that kings should 'study the book of the law and not let it depart from their mouths day or night' (excuse the loose OT quotation). Or, in other words, that religion should be pervasive and rightly directs public policy as well as private devotion. So they are not going to want a secularised division of church and state.

If religious freedom means anything (and it certainly does to Maikel) they are entitled to organise their church and state according to those beliefs. (Even Revisionists, who may not want the Temple to direct public policy, certainly want godliness, as they understand it, to direct public policy.) Clearly official policy in the Alliance does not believe that freedom extends to coercing others. The CoGA will have to agree to give up trying to enforce their view of religion where other churches are in existence 'abroad' and maybe give some assurances of some kind of religious freedom at home for those who are part of other churches.

Beyond that it gets practically impossible. Consider that the whole educational, welfare, legal, medical, and long distance communication system is run by the church. The various states are not remotely equipped to take that over and a great many of the workers conscientiously believe the church should do those things and may well refuse to work for a 'usurping' national government. Moreover, tithes pay for them. The CoGA may well decide that those who don't pay shouldn't benefit, in good capitalist style. While you are on a war footing and have your pistol at their head you can get people or governments to promise practically anything. Come the peace and the restoration of a peacetime economy, how on earth (or Safehold) could you enforce it? The EoC or even the Alliance cannot garrison the whole of Safehold.

Historical opinion seems pretty convinced the 'severe' terms of the peace treaties at the end of WW1 were one of the roots of WW2. The Inner Circle may be pretty convinced that 'Round 2' is inevitable, but how can they persuade the rest of the population of Charis that they are being reasonable if they act on that at the end of this war?

'Politics is the art of the possible', as someone said. In this case, the kind of demolition of the CoGA you are calling for doesn't seem to me to be remotely politically or philosophically possible.

The advocates for negotiating with the COGA seems to have overlooked the fact the COGA is not willing to neqotiate. In fact, they would probably burst more than a few blood vessels at the mere suggestion that they meet with Charis and/or Siddarmark as equals.

Also, despite the exhortations on this board for Charis to send an army to Zion, Charis does not currently have the logistics capability to keep an army supplied over winter at the distances involved. They are at their limit keeping BGV supplied at a distances of hundreds of miles.

Therefore, the strategy that makes the most sense is to pressure the COGA puppets. After, the Church and Harcongese forces have been dealt with, move on the borderlands. As each state is brought into the crosshairs, Offer them reasonable terms. Does anyone seriously think that any of the rulers of the borderlands will fall on their sword for the current vicars of the COGA.

The best part is that because of the JIHAD and COGA inquistion, no one will ever return to the COGA. After all, their reward would be to become guests of the inquisition followed by a bonfire ceremony in their honor in the Plaza of Martyrs. So relatively few Alliance forces will be needed to keep the new allies stable and loyal.

Ever state that switches will end up setting up their own reform church which will take control of the Church property in that state. Die hard Temple Loyalists will flee to the Temple Lands putting even more stress on COGA finances.

As more and more states switch a tipping point will be reached and states will start to switch before the alliance even targets them. At this point the COGA is finished. The only states left will be temple lands that haven't been conquered and a few reactionary holdouts like Harchong and Desmair.

At this point, the Alliance can dictate any terms that they want, They can demand unconditional surrender if they want to.