HFQ Official Snippet #9

PeterZ wrote:These were not the first M96s shipped out. That first shipment would have gone in an earlier convoy. I wonder who has that first shipment?

Methinks Wyrshym has more than 1 surprise in store for him. Cold hands trying to service a muzzle loader with paper cartridges against breech loaders firing brass cartridges. How effective can one be using gloves or mittens to muzzle load paper cartridges?

Hi PeterZ,

Good point. OTOH, We know that at least a few St. Klymans have reached Wyrshyam... I wonder if the cold w,I'll neutralize their advantage given the procedure that must be followed to load them.

Don

Hi Don,

PeterZ certainly has a point; being able to fire 10 rounds before the AoS can load or reload once due to the weather will smother the desperate return fire within 30 seconds or so, capped by switching to the second magazine making it all too obvious the AoS can't compete with the ICA.

How many will willingly surrender rather than fight on uselessly?

I'm still curious what kind of huts the AoS made in their camps in the Northland Gap; were there enough forests nearby to make log cabins or did they try to make do with sod because they couldn't use dragons to bring the logs from the nearest forests?

The first St. Kylman's that reached Wyrshym were only a half dozen prototypes, hardly enough to equip even a squad, NTM the time interval wasn't enough to get to Guarnak even if they were in one of Duchairn's 'specials' since it was only around 26 days from Magwair's meeting to Wyrshym's reminiscence about firing St Kylman's when they're ~5200 miles.

If M96's have reached SC, because the shipment that was lost could have been the first, BGV is the nearest army.

I've been expecting the reequipping with M96's to wait until each entire army could be switched simultaneously to simplify ammunition supply etc; dragging it out, of course, is also possible.

While the scout snipers might be first up for the M96's, if their primary role is secret silent reconnaissance, rather than fighting for information, the dragoon brigade is the next most likely since they are a combat unit expected to make lots of noise.

Zion by lake, river and canal is some 5200 miles from Guarnak, or ~130 days for normal barge movements before the GCR, so by the time enough St. Kylman's have been made to ship to Wyrshym when the ice melts the second and last AoS probably won't exist anymore.

L

n7axw wrote:

PeterZ wrote:These were not the first M96s shipped out. That first shipment would have gone in an earlier convoy. I wonder who has that first shipment?

Methinks Wyrshym has more than 1 surprise in store for him. Cold hands trying to service a muzzle loader with paper cartridges against breech loaders firing brass cartridges. How effective can one be using gloves or mittens to muzzle load paper cartridges?

Hi PeterZ,

Good point. OTOH, We know that at least a few St. Klymans have reached Wyrshyam... I wonder if the cold w,I'll neutralize their advantage given the procedure that must be followed to load them.

Don

Hi Lyonheart,

Ok, I remember... it was the Dohlarians who managed to get a significant number of St Klymans forward... to Rychter, I think.

As for your point about re-equiping armies with the M96s, my own expectation would be that it will be done by brigade rather than by whole armies. The supply will still be a bit limited at the start of the campaign season and the pressure will be to get the ones available into action.

Probably the first to receive them will be the forces facing the Dohlarians with the St Klymans....either DE or EHM.

Thanks for the references to the time table. That's always helpful.

Don

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

Ok, I remember... it was the Dohlarians who managed to get a significant number of St Klymans forward... to Rychter, I think.

As for your point about re-equiping armies with the M96s, my own expectation would be that it will be done by brigade rather than by whole armies. The supply will still be a bit limited at the start of the campaign season and the pressure will be to get the ones available into action.

Probably the first to receive them will be the forces facing the Dohlarians with the St Klymans....either DE or EHM.

Thanks for the references to the time table. That's always helpful.

Don

I think that BGV needs the weapons more than Eastshare. Eastshare and High Mount have the numerical advantage both in breach loaders and troops. BGV is seriously outnumbered and at the end of an extended supply line. Those M96s will be much more useful destroying Wyrshym's morale than adding to Eastshare's and High Mount's overkill.

Besides, BGV is closer from Telesberg by ship.

PeterZ wrote:

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

Ok, I remember... it was the Dohlarians who managed to get a significant number of St Klymans forward... to Rychter, I think.

As for your point about re-equiping armies with the M96s, my own expectation would be that it will be done by brigade rather than by whole armies. The supply will still be a bit limited at the start of the campaign season and the pressure will be to get the ones available into action.

Probably the first to receive them will be the forces facing the Dohlarians with the St Klymans....either DE or EHM.

Thanks for the references to the time table. That's always helpful.

Don

I think that BGV needs the weapons more than Eastshare. Eastshare and High Mount have the numerical advantage both in breach loaders and troops. BGV is seriously outnumbered and at the end of an extended supply line. Those M96s will be much more useful destroying Wyrshym's morale than adding to Eastshare's and High Mount's overkill.

Besides, BGV is closer from Telesberg by ship.

Hi Peter,

You've made good points, although my impression is that due to Wyrshyam's losses and the people he has sent to the rear to avoid having fed them, BGV may well have the actual larger number of troops in theater. But still, your basic point is well taken. We'll see how Caleb calls it!

Don

Hi, several remarks below.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Anwi,
Don't worry, HFQ won't cover the alliance overrunning the rest of the world.

I don't. My point's rather that the next few installments won't, either.

lyonheart wrote:Ever since father Paityr mentioned it, finding out what the thing(s) in the basement is/are has been driving the inner circle's efforts to find out how the archangels return in less than 20 years.
For some time here that's been the real reason for the raid on the temple or occupation, ie cover for such an investigation.

I don't recall textev on such plans and I'm not aware of RFC confirming that plan. I grant it's a possibility. What I don't figure is what Merlin could do then he can't do now. About the only thing I can come up with is having someone looking in the basement in Schueler's chamber. I'm not sure that there are significant benefits that justify the casualties.

lyonheart wrote:Once the MHoGatA has been defeated, the Go4 have shot their wad, they don't have anything left to train and equip in time before the alliance advances to Zion, which BGV could do before next winter.
(snip)
So the inner circle won't be worried about conquering hostile territory, it'll be bringing law and order if not justice to liberated lands, and some few may have rebelled and liberated themselves at terrible cost.

I disagree on both counts. The units currently deployed by the CoGA should not be the bottom of the barrel, just the numbers they can supply at the front (long communication lines) and with modern weaponry. Thus, the road (well - canal) from Lake City to Zion won't be a cakewalk. There might be a collapse of the CoGA (rather likely related to its current leadership) but that will be not due to purely military reasons.
As to the "liberation" issue: The Inquisition has now had several years to indoctrinate those people. Moreover, Charisians and Siddarmarkians would likely be seen as an occupying force, in a lot of cases from an old "enemy" (assume fearmongering in the Border States in previous decades (!)). Now, "bringing freedom and democracy" didn't work out so well once or twice before. So, without beating about the bush, I'd say it would here as well.

lyonheart wrote:What defensive line in Siddarmark or on its border do you see or suggest?
RFC among others has already dealt with the impossibility of trench warfare by pointing out that unlike the unique situation of WW1, Haven is a true continent thousands of miles wide, not the narrow four hundred miles of the western front; (snip)
So there are always flanks to take advantage of on Haven, which someone has or will.

Previous advances followed the (rather narrow) lines of canals, rivers, and major roads. If you have only some spots, where major numbers can actually advance through, you fortify those (eventually trenches) and cover the rest with sufficiently mobile units (no trenches). Even the "encirclement" of the AoJ at Kharmych was rather incomplete - they just blocked the main (and narrow!) major roads. Without cross-country transport, the Desnairians were toast. BGV will demonstrate, probably for the first time on Safehold, that under certain circumstances larger army units can actually go cross-country. But I'm rather sceptical if you could do that trick under less advantageous conditions. In any case, for now, only the ICA can actually do that at all. And you'd need automotive transport (IMHO) to do it on a really large scale.
Regarding lines of defense: That's a very good question, I don't have a good answer to right now. So far, the most effective strategy of the ICA has been to lure them in, cut off their communications and close the trap. If you have fortified positions (e.g. Thesmar) at major supply routes and apply defense in depth, you might be able to reach an effective stalemate.

lyonheart wrote:(snip)
No one has suggested that Desnar can afford to create organise and equip let alone send another army north for some time since its already being subsidized by the temple, and the CoGA can't afford to waste any more money on Desnar; the commerce raiders being about the best Desnar can do.
Silkiah and Dohlar will be dealt with in HFQ, but perhaps not in the fashion you expect.

Then let me do the suggestion . Desnair will have another army. It'll be insufficient and not well supplied, but it'll be there. More importantly, Dohlar will not simply be brushed over. They're producing enough weapons and can probably control lines of advance well enough to maintain a defensive position. And then, the population numbers for Dohlar are, well, staggering.
The ICN might manage to wreck Thirsk, but that won't defeat Dohlar, at least not militarily.
Moreover, so far Duchairn has staved off what Clyntahn probably already wants: setting everything on a war footing. In such a case, funds available to the Church treasury and deficits in its budget are rather irrelevant. That's the way WW1, WW2, and at least one infamous Asian state were sustained as long as they were (and are), especially for the loosing sides...

lyonheart wrote:All of Howard will soon be physically cut off from the Go4, (snip)
In other words it will be the CoGA armies that will have the few thousand rifles at best facing hundreds of thousands, not to mention far deadlier artillery etc, so the probability of alliance Pyrrhic victories will be nil.

My reading is this: RFC is doing his best to prevent such a scenario. What would be point of telling that story if there's no doubt about the outcome? Actually, if RFC would want to continue with an overland campaign against the Church, we would have to expect some major reversals for the EoC. Otherwise, how do you create tension? (Actually, I'm rather wondering how he'll solve that for HFQ.) So, he's stacking the Church's deck, giving them intel and innovations of their own. The improved processes will allow for equipping their units. Granted, their weaponry will be inferior for the next months, but it should be sufficient to hold onto well prepared defensive positions. And if the EoC lines of communication are getting strained, they can pull off the same counter-attacks as the EoC has.
Therefore, I'm a bit sceptical about all these nice offensive plans. As stated elsewhere, I'm expecting another storyline to take over. Although my main reason is that RFC will probably want to continue innovating beyond what's possible without electricity - and he can't with the current conditions. Moreover, he'd need to go for a time lapse, eventually, if there's not some major twist to the story and I'm not expecting a lapse.

anwi wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Once the MHoGatA has been defeated, the Go4 have shot their wad, they don't have anything left to train and equip in time before the alliance advances to Zion, which BGV could do before next winter.
(snip)
So the inner circle won't be worried about conquering hostile territory, it'll be bringing law and order if not justice to liberated lands, and some few may have rebelled and liberated themselves at terrible cost.

I disagree on both counts. The units currently deployed by the CoGA should not be the bottom of the barrel, just the numbers they can supply at the front (long communication lines) and with modern weaponry. Thus, the road (well - canal) from Lake City to Zion won't be a cakewalk. There might be a collapse of the CoGA (rather likely related to its current leadership) but that will be not due to purely military reasons.
As to the "liberation" issue: The Inquisition has now had several years to indoctrinate those people. Moreover, Charisians and Siddarmarkians would likely be seen as an occupying force, in a lot of cases from an old "enemy" (assume fearmongering in the Border States in previous decades (!)). Now, "bringing freedom and democracy" didn't work out so well once or twice before. So, without beating about the bush, I'd say it would here as well.

Hi,

We were reminded by the former EPA administer for Region VI how the Romans dealt with occupation. If you aren't familiar with the statement, look it up with "EPA Roman Crucifixion". The Romans kept the areas that they occupied for hundreds of years, and were able to deal with any insurgency. The Roman Empire both east and west fell to outside forces, when the empire failed to maintain its' relative superiority.

From the sixteenth century to the mid twentieth century western nations pretty much occupied whatever they wanted to, and were able to handle any insurgency that arose.

My point is that insurgency is not a magic stategy, and it isn't organized overnight. The EOC will be able to fight there way through the Temple Lands, and having dealt with regular army units shouldn't have much problem with local resistance in the time that they need to finish off the Temple itself.

James

Hi Anwi,

In regards to your remarks, I'll list my responses by the numbers, Shall I?

1. I'm afraid you completely misconstrued my comment.

I suspect you also recognise that the title HFQ, indicates that the alliance is no longer on the defensive as you suggest it should remain, nor in a static situation which you think RFC will maintain for another 10 books or so; but a rather successful advance against the G04 on several if not all fronts.

The whole continent of Howard will be largely ignored for the rest of this war, as it has been increasingly isolated; no one is suggesting North Harchong be invades either, NTM the western Temple Lands are also pretty safe from being overrun in HFQ.

Feel free to explain a way they could be in this war so the series can end as soon as possible.

Rather the alliance armies will deal with both the AoG and the MHoGatA by this summer, enabling them to advance toward Zion at will by fall, if BGV doesn't make a surprise visit.

2. The casualties may be far fewer than you think, the dilemma of what to do about what ever is in the temple basement has been a topic in every book since AMF, and threads here and at the bar, RFC hasn't approved any suggested plans for obvious reasons, but he hasn't ever ruled a 'raid' or invasion out, if anything he's made several hints of how where and with what it will happen.

3. Fear mongering is all the inquisition can do, since we have textev that the republic never threatened the Border States, and given the contrast between the prosperous republic and the poor Border States, I suspect much of the fear mongering has has become mere noise over the decades if not centuries, if not antagonizing its targets, as most threats tend to do over time.

Given emancipating the serfs will positively change the lives of 80+% of the population of the Border States, the Temple Lands, and Dohlar may also have such a high range of serfs, regardless of strong TL feeling, that the alliance is going to benefit from the popularity of its political program regardless of initial official opposition to its religious offering, though the success in the empire; ie Corisande, Zebediah, and Tarot indicate they should continue to expect success elsewhere as well.

Given Thirsk's thoughts on how the reformist movement or attitude, fueled in part by OWL's broadsheets, was sweeping Dohlar in past books; and the local popularity of the 'levelers' in the Border States that makes them a focal point of opposition to the current 'establishment' including the CoGA; I believe the reformist movement is far more popular in these regions than you do, so the alliance will be well received and welcomed by the clear majority of the remaining people.

4. Again both sides lack the troop numbers needed to fortify on such a continental scale, NTM man those fortifications afterward.

The historical record doesn't bode well for such fortifications being a success after all that work.

The effort to try to fortify the republic's borders could consume books, ie decades, yet you champion the concept while decrying your estimate of the eventual length of the series.

The Desnari AoJ could have followed Ahlverez if they had chosen wisely, the fact they didn't doesn't proscribe cross country movement in the first place, while Ahlverez used a high road due south then 'farm tracks' westward, covering some 300 miles in the 5day or so LaMA mentions in March.

5. Given the Desnari had to be subsidized to create the AoJ, particularly the rifles that equipped only a third of the infantry, that all the Desnari forces remaining in North Watch can't dislodge the puny road blocks the understrength ICN has made on the west shore of Jahras Bay for several month's, implies the IDA is in no position to field the army you propose or that it will seriously threaten alliance plans since it will never leave what is still Desnari territory for now.

RFC has posted on the textev economic and financial aspects of the war, I don't expect him to give the Go4 a free pass just to keep the status quo going.

6. Repeating the "Ashes of Victory" plot line has been discussed here several times, but I don't believe RFC is so limited in his story telling.

Most people expect some kind of time shift at some point, where and when has never been resolved, right now I'm having too much fun with the current characters.

The current war will end in a year or two at most, before further AoG etc armies can be raised or effectively trained, assuming the Go4 had a clue what ICA tactics really were etc; so attempts to attack alliance supply lines will be minimal because the forces to do won't have time to be created or trained etc.

But it is only the first of several RFC has hinted at, So I'm expecting 2 or 3 at least to enable the social and economic effects involved to develop over time, but well within current character lifetimes.

Feel free to disagree.

L

anwi wrote:Hi, several remarks below.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Anwi,
1. Don't worry, HFQ won't cover the alliance overrunning the rest of the world.
*quote*
I don't. My point's rather that the next few installments won't, either.

*quote="lyonheart"*
2. Ever since father Paityr mentioned it, finding out what the thing(s) in the basement is/are has been driving the inner circle's efforts to find out how the archangels return in less than 20 years.
For some time here that's been the real reason for the raid on the temple or occupation, ie cover for such an investigation.

I don't recall textev on such plans and I'm not aware of RFC confirming that plan. I grant it's a possibility. What I don't figure is what Merlin could do then he can't do now. About the only thing I can come up with is having someone looking in the basement in Schueler's chamber. I'm not sure that there are significant benefits that justify the casualties.

lyonheart wrote:3. Once the MHoGatA has been defeated, the Go4 have shot their wad, they don't have anything left to train and equip in time before the alliance advances to Zion, which BGV could do before next winter.
(snip)
So the inner circle won't be worried about conquering hostile territory, it'll be bringing law and order if not justice to liberated lands, and some few may have rebelled and liberated themselves at terrible cost.

I disagree on both counts. The units currently deployed by the CoGA should not be the bottom of the barrel, just the numbers they can supply at the front (long communication lines) and with modern weaponry. Thus, the road (well - canal) from Lake City to Zion won't be a cakewalk. There might be a collapse of the CoGA (rather likely related to its current leadership) but that will be not due to purely military reasons.
As to the "liberation" issue: The Inquisition has now had several years to indoctrinate those people. Moreover, Charisians and Siddarmarkians would likely be seen as an occupying force, in a lot of cases from an old "enemy" (assume fearmongering in the Border States in previous decades (!)). Now, "bringing freedom and democracy" didn't work out so well once or twice before. So, without beating about the bush, I'd say it would here as well.

lyonheart wrote:4. What defensive line in Siddarmark or on its border do you see or suggest?
RFC among others has already dealt with the impossibility of trench warfare by pointing out that unlike the unique situation of WW1, Haven is a true continent thousands of miles wide, not the narrow four hundred miles of the western front; (snip)
So there are always flanks to take advantage of on Haven, which someone has or will.

Previous advances followed the (rather narrow) lines of canals, rivers, and major roads. If you have only some spots, where major numbers can actually advance through, you fortify those (eventually trenches) and cover the rest with sufficiently mobile units (no trenches). Even the "encirclement" of the AoJ at Kharmych was rather incomplete - they just blocked the main (and narrow!) major roads. Without cross-country transport, the Desnairians were toast. BGV will demonstrate, probably for the first time on Safehold, that under certain circumstances larger army units can actually go cross-country. But I'm rather sceptical if you could do that trick under less advantageous conditions. In any case, for now, only the ICA can actually do that at all. And you'd need automotive transport (IMHO) to do it on a really large scale.
Regarding lines of defense: That's a very good question, I don't have a good answer to right now. So far, the most effective strategy of the ICA has been to lure them in, cut off their communications and close the trap. If you have fortified positions (e.g. Thesmar) at major supply routes and apply defense in depth, you might be able to reach an effective stalemate.

lyonheart wrote:(snip)
5. No one has suggested that Desnar can afford to create organise and equip let alone send another army north for some time since its already being subsidized by the temple, and the CoGA can't afford to waste any more money on Desnar; the commerce raiders being about the best Desnar can do.
Silkiah and Dohlar will be dealt with in HFQ, but perhaps not in the fashion you expect.

Then let me do the suggestion . Desnair will have another army. It'll be insufficient and not well supplied, but it'll be there. More importantly, Dohlar will not simply be brushed over. They're producing enough weapons and can probably control lines of advance well enough to maintain a defensive position. And then, the population numbers for Dohlar are, well, staggering.
The ICN might manage to wreck Thirsk, but that won't defeat Dohlar, at least not militarily.
Moreover, so far Duchairn has staved off what Clyntahn probably already wants: setting everything on a war footing. In such a case, funds available to the Church treasury and deficits in its budget are rather irrelevant. That's the way WW1, WW2, and at least one infamous Asian state were sustained as long as they were (and are), especially for the loosing sides...

lyonheart wrote:6. All of Howard will soon be physically cut off from the Go4, (snip)
In other words it will be the CoGA armies that will have the few thousand rifles at best facing hundreds of thousands, not to mention far deadlier artillery etc, so the probability of alliance Pyrrhic victories will be nil.

My reading is this: RFC is doing his best to prevent such a scenario. What would be point of telling that story if there's no doubt about the outcome? Actually, if RFC would want to continue with an overland campaign against the Church, we would have to expect some major reversals for the EoC. Otherwise, how do you create tension? (Actually, I'm rather wondering how he'll solve that for HFQ.) So, he's stacking the Church's deck, giving them intel and innovations of their own. The improved processes will allow for equipping their units. Granted, their weaponry will be inferior for the next months, but it should be sufficient to hold onto well prepared defensive positions. And if the EoC lines of communication are getting strained, they can pull off the same counter-attacks as the EoC has.
Therefore, I'm a bit sceptical about all these nice offensive plans. As stated elsewhere, I'm expecting another storyline to take over. Although my main reason is that RFC will probably want to continue innovating beyond what's possible without electricity - and he can't with the current conditions. Moreover, he'd need to go for a time lapse, eventually, if there's not some major twist to the story and I'm not expecting a lapse.

lyonheart wrote: Feel free to explain a way they could be in this war so the series can end as soon as possible.

Has there been textev that RFC intends to end the series with the defeat of the Go4 et al? I would consider it unfinished if it did not end with the defeat and destruction of the Gabba and the establishment of the Safeholdian Federation of Space.

The last we heard from David Weber is that this series ends with Safehold "learning" the Truth and starting on the road back to space.

David Weber has said that the rematch with the Gbaba would be a separate series.

Keith_w wrote:

lyonheart wrote: Feel free to explain a way they could be in this war so the series can end as soon as possible.

Has there been textev that RFC intends to end the series with the defeat of the Go4 et al? I would consider it unfinished if it did not end with the defeat and destruction of the Gabba and the establishment of the Safeholdian Federation of Space.