n7axw wrote:JeffEngel wrote:I'm fairly optimistic myself about Dohlar's likelihood of leaving the jihad, for these and other reasons. I just wanted to make the point that Earl Thirsk himself was just one small part of that, and to avoid too much optimism. The defections so far have been:
Charis: Defect or die, you've been essentially cast out already.
Chisholm: Defect or probably die - you're too likely to get blamed for insufficient participation against your own interests already, or to face the same treatment but alone down the road if you don't.
Emerald, Tarot: Defect or get invaded and forced to defect, and, well, you know you're suspect anyway
Zebediah: pretty much the Emerald/Tarot story, plus opportunism to play both sides in the late Grand Duke's case; nowadays, among the Zebediahan people, it's get behind the defection because they like it.
Corisande: defect willingly and be a participant or stay loyal (but suspect) and occupied
(loyal) Siddarmark: see Charis
Delferahk, Desnair: excusably fail to volunteer for more pointless slapping around without really stepping out of the Temple side
Dohlar isn't in a defect or die situation yet. They may well be able to avoid death for a long time just because there's only so much that can be brought to bear on them with Harchong on the same continent and their own population and manufacturing base. They're in a far better position to hold out than Corisande was. That may make for a brutal, slow destruction of their nation, but if they really think the Temple must win, that would still mean coming out on top. For that matter, giving the Allies a "Dohlaran ulcer" could contribute to their ultimate defeat, like Spanish resistance did for Napoleon.
They have too much going for them in terms of manufacturing and population base - and position - to be in Delferahk's or Desnair's position of being able to fall quietly out of the jihad.
So Dohlar would have to opt out of the jihad, if they do, with far more freedom not to than Siddarmark or any of the Out Islands did, and far more decisively than Desnair or Delferahk (or Fallos or the Raven Lands) have. It wouldn't be dropping out for being kicked out, or for facing that as a certain result of sheer force anyway, but because (at least in very large part) because it's just the right thing to do. (Though, granted, not being kicked around any more by the Allies would be nice, as would not having their sailors and soldiers under the de facto command of Desnairians and fanatics. It's not like moral indignation has to be the sole reason!)
Don't quite agree here. Dohlar is more heavily threatened than you seem to be indicating, whether the threat comes from a reinforced Hanth or from the Cities showing up in Gorath Bay. Either of those possibilities confront Dohlar with being knocked out of the war. Dohlar's participation in the Jihad is measured in not more than a few months and there is textev to support Thirsk's knowing that.
So it happens...one way or another.
Don
Dohlar's threatened with a navy that can chuck explosive shells a few miles inland and land marines to raze its ports, and possibly some army that can get over the border even with the rear-guard actions Rychtair has been performing very, very well to slow them down.
I don't want to minimize how rough on Dohlar the coastal attacks can be - or what it would do to Dohlar's economy to lose the use of the coast for transport. And if/when the Allies choose to divert forces from dealing with the Mighty Host, lingering AoG formations, lingering rebel Siddarmark militias etc., and opt to use them on Dohlar instead of (e.g.) Silkiah or Desnair, or land them on either of Harching's Gulf coasts... it would be really hard on Dohlar's troops, militias, and border integrity.
None of that knocks a genuinely determined and committed nation out of a coalition war though., and occupying a genuinely, seriously resistant Dohlar is beyond the available means of the Allies. Rainbow Waters would be dancing for joy if they tried it.
Oh, it'd be quite enough for a nation that
isn't so determined to settle down grumpily and try to avoid further punishment til things change - Desnair's situation. But Dohlar is better able to keep putting armed men in the way, especially if the Allies bring occupation troops right there to it, so it isn't so likely to have Desnair's out that way - unless they work it out as a quiet de facto agreement with Charis, effectively defecting without formalizing it. But that one is really dangerous and unstable.
And a major problem with hitting Dohlar til it backs down is that you may find Dohlar resisting because it just hates Charis even if it also has lost all respect for Zion. Wars do that kind of thing, especially when the punishment gets meted out on civilians.