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Direction of the story

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Re: Direction of the story Spoiler
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:18 pm

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Don,

We know that this current arc will end without the Reveal. The story will deal with the Reveal in a second arc. Might the gap between the two arcs be taken up with a cold war just as easily as a defeat of the CoGA? I suspect there is much to be said about a cold war. I further suspect that a cold war would be a good way to progress the plot until the awakening.

If the Allies can win quickly, they might not trigger the Temple. It might be the best option to send Payter into the Temple with the Key. If they can't, will the cost of a longer hot war be better for Merlin's goal than a an even longer cold war?

Not sure which way it will go. I just believe the CoGA is still needed as an antagonistic foil for the plot.

n7axw wrote:
So...what do you do? Avoid Zion? Say that you can only get so close and no closer, leaving the Temple and its denisons untouched? Imagine Zhasphar Clyntahn still in control as the wheels come off. The allies approach and then stop. Your perspective rules out the Haarahlds escorting in the transports to land troops in Temple Bay. Now what? If there can be no threat to Zion, Father Paityr certainly isn't going to make it into the Temple basement. No way to establish what will or will not trigger the Tenple's safeguards.

(Shrug) I don't know which way the story is going to go any more than you do. But I don't believe its going to go this way.

Don
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Re: Direction of the story Spoiler
Post by evilauthor   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:41 am

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Are people forgetting that Helmcleaver set off an explosion powerful enough to rattle the Temple and the Temple just seemed to ignore it like it ignores everything else? If the Temple can ignore a massive explosion going off practically right next door, some King Haraalds steaming up the river aren't going to trip any alarms that haven't already been tripped by Helmcleaver.

Besides which, I wouldn't be surprised if the Inquisition agents that are guarding the Temple have been equipped with firearms by now. Meaning people with blackpowder firearms are running around inside the Temple also without tripping any alarms.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by JeffEngel   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:47 am

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n7axw wrote:
JeffEngel wrote:I'm fairly optimistic myself about Dohlar's likelihood of leaving the jihad, for these and other reasons. I just wanted to make the point that Earl Thirsk himself was just one small part of that, and to avoid too much optimism. The defections so far have been:
Charis: Defect or die, you've been essentially cast out already.
Chisholm: Defect or probably die - you're too likely to get blamed for insufficient participation against your own interests already, or to face the same treatment but alone down the road if you don't.
Emerald, Tarot: Defect or get invaded and forced to defect, and, well, you know you're suspect anyway
Zebediah: pretty much the Emerald/Tarot story, plus opportunism to play both sides in the late Grand Duke's case; nowadays, among the Zebediahan people, it's get behind the defection because they like it.
Corisande: defect willingly and be a participant or stay loyal (but suspect) and occupied
(loyal) Siddarmark: see Charis
Delferahk, Desnair: excusably fail to volunteer for more pointless slapping around without really stepping out of the Temple side

Dohlar isn't in a defect or die situation yet. They may well be able to avoid death for a long time just because there's only so much that can be brought to bear on them with Harchong on the same continent and their own population and manufacturing base. They're in a far better position to hold out than Corisande was. That may make for a brutal, slow destruction of their nation, but if they really think the Temple must win, that would still mean coming out on top. For that matter, giving the Allies a "Dohlaran ulcer" could contribute to their ultimate defeat, like Spanish resistance did for Napoleon.

They have too much going for them in terms of manufacturing and population base - and position - to be in Delferahk's or Desnair's position of being able to fall quietly out of the jihad.

So Dohlar would have to opt out of the jihad, if they do, with far more freedom not to than Siddarmark or any of the Out Islands did, and far more decisively than Desnair or Delferahk (or Fallos or the Raven Lands) have. It wouldn't be dropping out for being kicked out, or for facing that as a certain result of sheer force anyway, but because (at least in very large part) because it's just the right thing to do. (Though, granted, not being kicked around any more by the Allies would be nice, as would not having their sailors and soldiers under the de facto command of Desnairians and fanatics. It's not like moral indignation has to be the sole reason!)


Don't quite agree here. Dohlar is more heavily threatened than you seem to be indicating, whether the threat comes from a reinforced Hanth or from the Cities showing up in Gorath Bay. Either of those possibilities confront Dohlar with being knocked out of the war. Dohlar's participation in the Jihad is measured in not more than a few months and there is textev to support Thirsk's knowing that.

So it happens...one way or another.

Don

Dohlar's threatened with a navy that can chuck explosive shells a few miles inland and land marines to raze its ports, and possibly some army that can get over the border even with the rear-guard actions Rychtair has been performing very, very well to slow them down.

I don't want to minimize how rough on Dohlar the coastal attacks can be - or what it would do to Dohlar's economy to lose the use of the coast for transport. And if/when the Allies choose to divert forces from dealing with the Mighty Host, lingering AoG formations, lingering rebel Siddarmark militias etc., and opt to use them on Dohlar instead of (e.g.) Silkiah or Desnair, or land them on either of Harching's Gulf coasts... it would be really hard on Dohlar's troops, militias, and border integrity.

None of that knocks a genuinely determined and committed nation out of a coalition war though., and occupying a genuinely, seriously resistant Dohlar is beyond the available means of the Allies. Rainbow Waters would be dancing for joy if they tried it.

Oh, it'd be quite enough for a nation that isn't so determined to settle down grumpily and try to avoid further punishment til things change - Desnair's situation. But Dohlar is better able to keep putting armed men in the way, especially if the Allies bring occupation troops right there to it, so it isn't so likely to have Desnair's out that way - unless they work it out as a quiet de facto agreement with Charis, effectively defecting without formalizing it. But that one is really dangerous and unstable.

And a major problem with hitting Dohlar til it backs down is that you may find Dohlar resisting because it just hates Charis even if it also has lost all respect for Zion. Wars do that kind of thing, especially when the punishment gets meted out on civilians.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by n7axw   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:38 pm

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Hi JeffEngel,

You would be right for a nation that is genuinely committed. Where we differ if how true that would be for Dohlar. Where I would place my own wager is that if there was a feasible way out of the war, Dohlar would head for the exit.

Secondly, without in any way dsparaging Rychtyr's accomplishment in slowing Hanth down, if Hanth has been reinforced heavily enough, Rychtyr will no longer be able to contine holding Hanth.

Finally, the ICN can do more than lob shells inland. They can also escort troop transports for an army large enough to control Gorath. Given that what's left of the Dohlaran army is concentrated against Hanth, the RDA wouldn't be able to interfere.

There really isn't a need for a punative settlement. It can be quite generous, in fact. The allies only real interest is getting Dohlar out of the war and making sure they stay out.

For Dohlar's part, I suspect that the basic response would be a huge sigh of relief.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:28 pm

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A Dohlaran ulcer is something to really consider both from the Dohlaran and Charisian/Allied point of view. The threat of that will encourage Charis to foster a negotiated peace with Dohlar. That same threat will encourage Dohlar to hold out for the best possible outcome, including eventual victory.

The longer Dohlar holds out and draws large amounts of troops from Allies, the more likely the GHoGaA will either survive or make headway. If Dohlar caves quickly, the GHoGaA will have less time to develop better weapons and deploy their massive strength before the allies recruit up.

The purely practical motivations suggest Dohlar holding out for as long as possible. Unless their decision is driven by impractical reasons, that is. Impractical reasons such as a theological argument supporting the moral position that the CoGA was wrong to launch the jihad and engage in the subsequent atrocities.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by n7axw   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 6:36 pm

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PeterZ wrote:A Dohlaran ulcer is something to really consider both from the Dohlaran and Charisian/Allied point of view. The threat of that will encourage Charis to foster a negotiated peace with Dohlar. That same threat will encourage Dohlar to hold out for the best possible outcome, including eventual victory.

The longer Dohlar holds out and draws large amounts of troops from Allies, the more likely the GHoGaA will either survive or make headway. If Dohlar caves quickly, the GHoGaA will have less time to develop better weapons and deploy their massive strength before the allies recruit up.

The purely practical motivations suggest Dohlar holding out for as long as possible. Unless their decision is driven by impractical reasons, that is. Impractical reasons such as a theological argument supporting the moral position that the CoGA was wrong to launch the jihad and engage in the subsequent atrocities.


I don't think Dohlar has the means to hold out very long. Give them time to rebuild their army and they can become at least a short term threat to tie up allied resourses to contain them. But if Hanth presses home his attack, once the Cities and/or Haarahlds arrive in the Gulf, my take is that Dohlar is out of time. I find myself wondering if the winter campaign might not happen in the south in the coming months. Clearing the deck in Dohlar before facing down the Harchongese in the spring would be an important thing for the allies to do.

As for the theological argument, let's face it, schism runs completely contrary to the COGA/Safehold story line. Virtually every country that has embraced it has done so as a consequence of force or the threat of force when survival was at stake. I don't see that Dohlar will be different except that all that is really being asked of Dohlar is that they quit the Jihad. That should be an easier sell than asking them to embrace schism.

The moral argument seems much easier to make. The God presented in the Book of Scheuler and one presented in the rest of Writ is very different; deeply conflicted. The TLs are caught between the two pictures and we are seeing a lot of misgivings over the inquisition's embodiment of the Book of Schueler on the TL side.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by Expert snuggler   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 6:56 pm

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Imagine a careful list of 95 theological reasons the Book of Schueler is not and cannot be authentic, nailed to a church door or to every church door.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:50 pm

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All holding out entails is a continued active resistance even after a defeat. Having an organized force that would force Charis into ever harsher measures. That alone will demand a large garrison from the Allies. THAT prospect would give the Charisians leadership a real ulcer. Unlike the Corisande campaign Charis cannot focus on one enemy alone and the population is both much larger and much more densely packed.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by CJK   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:09 pm

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In HFQ Thirsk, Fern (chancellor), Thorast, Salthar (amry commander, Ahlverez and Yellowstone (foreign secretary) had a meeting. At this meeting we learned that King Rahnyld IV spends his time with racing pigeons over matters of state and that Duke Fern is concerned over Charis prisoners. This kind of discussion does not show a determination to wage a costly war. Nor does the absence of the King in such a discussion, compare this to Prince Hektor's council of war where Hektor fought as long as he could. IMO Dohlar does not have the determination to fight the jihad without CoGA prodding them in that direction. After all the reason they started the war was the CoGA gave Rahnyld a tax break, not exactly a rousing endorsement of a willingness to fight to the death.

Besides there is a high probability that Clyntahn will push Dohlar out of the jihad by summer by persecuting the seamen who let the Charisian prisoners escape. NTM Clyntahn has got to be considering removing Thirsk now his family is gone. At which point Dohlar will at least question the value of staying with the CoGA when it cannot be trusted to support those who fight in her name.
Last edited by CJK on Sun Nov 15, 2015 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Direction of the story
Post by n7axw   » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:54 pm

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PeterZ wrote:All holding out entails is a continued active resistance even after a defeat. Having an organized force that would force Charis into ever harsher measures. That alone will demand a large garrison from the Allies. THAT prospect would give the Charisians leadership a real ulcer. Unlike the Corisande campaign Charis cannot focus on one enemy alone and the population is both much larger and much more densely packed.


Good points. But if the recognized leadership such as Fern and people such as Thirsk and Ahlverez accept the situation, your resistance scenario becomes unlikely, I think. My reading on this is that Dohlar is war weary and would be grateful for an out. That is really the wager the allies would be making.

Neutralizing Dohlar is not the same thing as conquest. Occupy Gorath long enough to get a declaration of neutrality. Decapitate the local inquisition, leaving the Dohlaran government in control of its own act. Then withdraw leaving behind some sort of embassy while the ICN keeps an eye on things from a distance.

Momentum for a resistance won't build up as long as there is nothing to resist. Hopefully by the time what happened sunk in, it would be over.

Do this right and you give added incentive to the Desnairians to seek a similar arrangement and get the privateers out of the EOC's hair.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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