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[HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?

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Re: [HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?
Post by McTurbo   » Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:15 am

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2 things about that...

copying a technology can be expensive.. in some cases more expensive than inventing it. The base to support said technology does not exist. its basically a form of entrapment.

If i am trying to copy your technology.. i am spending resources and materials playing catch-up while i am doing that you get to spend your resources on innovation and improvement.

in some cases as the gun conversion kits.. its not always going to work that way..

so while the church is spending resources and funds they are breaking themselves trying to catch up not knowing the technology they are coping is already "old tech" as Charsis already has started working on steel framed, hulled/armored vessels powered by steam...

It going to cost the church a ton of resources to gear up to copy her.. from new type guns, armored hulls, and so on... where as Charsis has already moved on to something better, faster, and deadlier...

Sorry to say as an added food for thought.. the harchong army is dead meat... all you have to do is cause it to split up into smaller and smaller sections... they are built on a serf/conscription basis with a limited set of officers... doing to the Mighty Host what they did by targeting officers will have a more profound effect on them than it did the Army of God.

to give you an idea of how bad its hosed.. i leave you with this... the Charsis/Chisholme model is pretty much like the US Marines.. you kill the guy in charge out in the field and the next guy takes over and tries to do the job... you pretty much have to kill all the officers and more than likly nco's before forcing them to retreat/regroup... this is not the case in a forced conscription based army.. you chop the head off.. they hunker down and await further orders as no one has any training to take the initiative...
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Re: [HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?
Post by DrakBibliophile   » Wed Oct 14, 2015 9:40 am

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I'd be very surprised if Thirsk leaves Dohlar.

I suspect that David Weber has other plans for him.

Of course, The Mighty Wizard Weber has surprised me before and likely will surprise me again. :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:


Bluestrike2 wrote:
(more spoilers)

I wouldn't even go so far as to call it a setback. It'll take a few months to go over Dreadnought, duplicate its ammunition, and figure out how the guns work. By the time they get it into service, the King Haarahlds are going to be commissioned based on the revised timeline after the delays in HFQ. At that point, the game is up for every non-Charisian navy on Safehold.

Dreadnought gives their technicians something to concentrate on in the meantime, and maintains the illusion that they can keep up with Charis. It'll be a profound shock unlike anything else in the Jihad to date, especially after the feeling that they were making progress with Dreadnought's capture. Not only will it strongly suggest the Church can and will likely lose (which people are already starting to suspect), it might even be enough to push Dohlar to follow the Desnairian example and back out of the Jihad in order to "regroup." They've already lost an army, no need to lose their entire navy as well.

Then there's Thirsk. Merlin showed up at his home at the end of HFQ, and the impossibility of his being there suggests that he might get a version of the truth along with the good news about his family. Either of those ought to be enough to get him to leave Dohlar altogether when coupled with his own troubles over the Jihad's morality. Throw in some imagery of what the Inquisition is actually up to, and his oath to Rahnyld might not be enough to keep him from realizing what he's actually in service of.

I'd say that it's likely Thirsk is going to be leaving Dohlar. Whether he enters Charisian service, or just stays neutral and goes off with his family, the defection of one of the Jihad's only heroes is going to be even worse than when Irys and Daivyn went over to Charis. All of this together is going to make it clear that the wheels are coming off, and that might be enough to drive Clyntahn to take control of the Jihad like he threatens to (520).

At that point, the Church's technicians are going to be on thin ice with the Inquisition. Irrational as Clyntahn is, there's a chance he might strike out at them since he can't reach any from Charis to assuage his need to feel in control.
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Re: [HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?
Post by Louis R   » Wed Oct 14, 2015 10:48 am

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Dreadnought's shells were still filled with black powder, since the only new explosive isn't a reliable shell filling. Well, it's reliably suicidal, but that's not a recommendation.

3., like 1. & 2., is mainly due to superior metallurgy. What the Dohlarans will pick up from studying the shells is the base-fusing design. Neither the shell bodies nor the fuses themselves are trivial exercises of the machinist's art; there are people in Dohlar who could certainly duplicate them, but not in quantity. Doing that would require pushing forward on standardised measurements and power tools - neither of which they can just copy :)

Jeslis wrote:Seemed to be some wrong info in here....

Dreadnaught did not have breechloaders, those were the *city class* ? which were used elsewhere. Dreadnaught was only an ironclad.

Second, they go over what the *capture* of the ship truly impacts in the book - the main points were:

1. The armor of the ship was somehow stronger on one side, but they had no idea how to even begin to duplicate that.
2. The armor was twice the thickness, and instead of a 2x2 foot squad the CoGA can make, it was 4x4? or double, or bigger (I forget the exact wording)
3. The shells were half the size and weight of shells the CoGA can make, for the same (but more reliable) boom//explosion//destructiveness. No real indication of ability to duplicate... assumption I made was that the chemicals inside Charisian shells would not be easy for the CoGA to figure out. Would require chemical formula and processes.
4. One of the Charisian POV's descriptions of *What would COGA gain from capturing the ship*, was the.. mahndaran? (spelling), recoil system was in place on the guns. The CoGA POV did not go into the recoil systems after capture.
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Re: [HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?
Post by Hiruu   » Wed Oct 14, 2015 4:52 pm

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vsimco wrote:Yes I got the book early and about 3/4 of the way through. Long time lurker of these forums.

I'm still reading the book, but the part I want to discuss happens after the "mudbank" sea battle.












-----SPOILERS----------












----You HAVE BEEN WARNED







So the Dohlarns got themselves a "ironclad" and I can't just help that it doesn't really make a whole lot sense. Oh I understand the crew died, but the thing was rigged to blow, and I can't really understand why Merlin couldn't have detonated one of his SNARCs to "finish what the crew was planning to do". This is aptly frustrating when the inner circle is discussing what should be done if the "prisoners" get sent to inquisition again... that Merlin might blow the magazine if they are sent by ship.

I can't help but think the situation is forced by glorious author for the other side to have a fighting chance on the navy side. It seems forced.



LOL, I just got to this portion of the book, and the portion with the after action conference call. I can't help but agree 110%!!! The Leadership (local and Strategic) clearly understood the critical nature of this, since Thunderer had blown her magazines...to have yet another of the most advanced warfare ships in the world make the same mistake was befuddling, to say the least. This was most certainly THE MOST important ship not to allow being captured, as well as the bombardment ship. RFC constantly (almost nauseatingly) reminds us of how professional the ICN is, so people need to be held accountable. First off, Abaat should be court martial, and at the very least, not given another seagoing command. Secondly, a Captain's Standing Orders are not optional, but maybe being recently retired navy so my perspective is jaded. The CO is ALWAYS responsible…I don’t care if you are in your cabin asleep and the Watch makes a mistake. You delegated authority, not responsibility. This is a hallmark of the US Navy, at any rate…so I’m a bit bias. One of those damned Officers should have plunkered near the bomb and blown the damn ship...no questions asked! Lastly...and to your point, why in the heck didn't Marling blow the ship, but is worried about 500 prisoners...WHAT?!?!? So you aren't concerned about a ship and hi-tech that will allow the enemy to kill magnitudes more?!?! All very confusing sequence, imho. I actually liked that the ICN get smacked, since this captains and admirals were looking to be infallible, but smdh at this…it’s almost as if this was a set-up for whatever this event is on the cover of the book…till waiting to get to that part.
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Re: [HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?
Post by n7axw   » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:19 pm

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Abaht was captain of Thunderer which was successfully scuttled after being grounded on that mudd reef.

Dreadnought's captain was killed. All of her officers except one midshipman were also killed. The midshipman was knocked unconscious during the battle. I think this was why the plan to scuttle Dreadnaught failed.

Don
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Re: [HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?
Post by Caoster   » Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:40 pm

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Isilith wrote:Be far the most annoying "Deus ex machina" twists are from RFC forcing help/tech to the CoGA. Same thing with how the CoGA got the plans for the new puddling hearths and steam engine.

No, the "they didn't knoooooooow it would be so dangerous in Siddarmark" response was... not even remotely believable.

As to your other point, there is ZERO rational reason for Merlin to not have blown it up. NONE, ZERO... capturing an EoC warship isn't helping ANYONE break the chains against innovation... it just gets more of "his" ( that he supposedly loves ) people killed.



Yup, those Deus Ex Machina twists that he pulls out really hurt my suspension of disbelief. There were quite a few similar things in the Honorverse to keep Haven in the fight after getting stomped on time and again, and they were equally annoying. Having to keep reinflating the 'big bad' after all the air is knocked out of it time and again to try to force them into being a believable threat is bad writing.

Merlin not destroying Dreadnaught is a huge plot hole and poor storytelling. Merlin had tons of snarcs there, viewsing the battle. He WATCHED the Captain set up the FIVE fuses to blow the ship, and presumably watched it fail to blow up. We are supposed to believe is just didn't occur to ANYONE who was watching that "hey, maybe we should finish the job?"
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Re: [HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?
Post by evilauthor   » Thu Oct 15, 2015 4:43 pm

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Caoster wrote:Merlin not destroying Dreadnaught is a huge plot hole and poor storytelling. Merlin had tons of snarcs there, viewsing the battle. He WATCHED the Captain set up the FIVE fuses to blow the ship, and presumably watched it fail to blow up. We are supposed to believe is just didn't occur to ANYONE who was watching that "hey, maybe we should finish the job?"


That still gets into the question of why Merlin needs to build primitive 500 pound bombs to do the job of that a single SNARC could have done at the end of the book. If you could answer why a bomb and not a SNARC, the same answer would apply to why SNARCs weren't used to blow Dreadnought's magazine.
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Re: [HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?
Post by Jonathan_S   » Wed Oct 28, 2015 11:40 am

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evilauthor wrote:
Caoster wrote:Merlin not destroying Dreadnaught is a huge plot hole and poor storytelling. Merlin had tons of snarcs there, viewsing the battle. He WATCHED the Captain set up the FIVE fuses to blow the ship, and presumably watched it fail to blow up. We are supposed to believe is just didn't occur to ANYONE who was watching that "hey, maybe we should finish the job?"


That still gets into the question of why Merlin needs to build primitive 500 pound bombs to do the job of that a single SNARC could have done at the end of the book. If you could answer why a bomb and not a SNARC, the same answer would apply to why SNARCs weren't used to blow Dreadnought's magazine.

Quite possibly because SNARCs use more hard to replace high-tech than a primitive laser guided bomb. OWL, despite having fabbers, doesn't have access to all the feedstocks you need to endlessly reproduce Terran Federation tech. So using what you have efficiently makes sense - the guidance circuit and control servos for a LGB should take vastly less than the cutting edge recon device that is a SNARC.

Plus developing the bombs gives you the option to blow up things that don't have significant powder magazines (merchant ships; disabled ship that have put their power overboard, non-ships, etc).
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Re: [HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?
Post by runsforcelery   » Wed Oct 28, 2015 3:59 pm

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Caoster wrote:Merlin not destroying Dreadnaught is a huge plot hole and poor storytelling. Merlin had tons of snarcs there, viewsing the battle. He WATCHED the Captain set up the FIVE fuses to blow the ship, and presumably watched it fail to blow up. We are supposed to believe is just didn't occur to ANYONE who was watching that "hey, maybe we should finish the job?"


evilauthor wrote:That still gets into the question of why Merlin needs to build primitive 500 pound bombs to do the job of that a single SNARC could have done at the end of the book. If you could answer why a bomb and not a SNARC, the same answer would apply to why SNARCs weren't used to blow Dreadnought's magazine.


Jonathan_S wrote:Quite possibly because SNARCs use more hard to replace high-tech than a primitive laser guided bomb. OWL, despite having fabbers, doesn't have access to all the feedstocks you need to endlessly reproduce Terran Federation tech. So using what you have efficiently makes sense - the guidance circuit and control servos for a LGB should take vastly less than the cutting edge recon device that is a SNARC.

Plus developing the bombs gives you the option to blow up things that don't have significant powder magazines (merchant ships; disabled ship that have put their power overboard, non-ships, etc).


You know, guys, the fact that Merlin used a bomb to destroy one galleon doesn't — as Jonathan points out above — mean that that's the only reason to build the thing in the first place. Note that Merlin has considerably heavier weapons that he also built "just in case." Does he want to use them? No. But if it becomes necessary for a "miraculous" intervention — of the sort that he absolutely hates the thought of but might find himself forced into in order to prevent something even worse — the bombs give him the ability to do that without using weapons which are likely to attract the attention of the bombardment system or whatever is/is not sleeping under the Temple. So, yes, he decided to use one of them to take out the galleon instead of expending a SNARC remote to detonate the magazine. He could have done it the other way, but the recon scammer was already in the vicinity — remember that it delivered the "fishing boat" the seijins used to board the galleon in the first place — and there was no reason not to.

And for those who are concerned about the recon skimmer's possibly being sited, please do recall its stealth capability. No one was going to see it unless Merlin chose for them to see it, and he didn't.

As for all of the complaints about "why didn't Merlin" blow up this or demolish that, and "why wasn't Ahbaht court-martialed," I think most of that should be fairly self-evident if you think it through.

A court of inquiry — or even a court-martial — doesn't necessarily mean that the "accused" is going to be found culpable and stripped of command. In fact, it's much more likely that you'd get a result in which Ahbaht would be removed from command in peacetime than it is that you would get the same result in wartime. Husband Kimmel was effectively retired following Pearl Harbor as part of what amounted to a peacetime witch hunt in a military transitioning (rather abruptly and very much against its will) from peacetime to wartime but still with a peacetime mindset. Seven months later, Richmond Kelley Turner, the commander of the invasion force at Guadalcanal, could have been court-martialed and put ashore for the rest of the war following the Battle of Savo, arguably the worst blue-water defeat in the history of the United States Navy. Although he did not exercise direct tactical control over the cruisers covering the anchorage or issue specific orders for how the approaches were to be covered, he was still ultimately responsible for those decisions, and those decisions were disastrous. However, it was recognized by his superiors that stuff happens, especially in wars, and that while an officer may be legally responsible for the bad decisions of subordinates — or even for bad consequences of decisions he himself made based on the best available information — this is an often unavoidable consequence of fighting a war.

The ultimate lesson of someone like Turner — who went on to become the most successful commander of amphibious operations in the history of the United States — is that you don't throw away the expertise and capability of an officer of superior ability in the middle of a war over a military disaster unless there's clear evidence that the disaster in question was the result of negligence (which it was not, in this case) or of gross incompetence (which it also was not, in this case).

As for blowing up Dreadnought,, there was an officer sitting there ready to blow up the ship — and himself. Unfortunately, he got killed before he could. And so did all of the rest of the ship's officers, aside from one midshipman, who (I believe) was unconscious when he was captured.

If the fact that the chain of command can be fatally disrupted in the middle of a savage hand-to-hand fight after an hours-long gunnery duel using six-inch muzzle-loading cannons and black powder I invite the reader's attention to the battle between USN Chesapeake and HMS Shannon. The unfortunate midshipman who carried his mortally wounded captain below decks for treatment was court-martialed for quitting the deck primarily because command had devolved upon him. Think about how many levels of command authority had to be wiped out in a battle lasting — I believe — no more than 10 or 15 minutes. Dreadnought's battle lasted for hours, the final boarding action came about as the result of a collision between her and another ship, virtually all of her officers had already been killed before the collision occurred, and her captain was killed at the moment of the collision, crushed by falling rigging. Then the gunner, who was supposed to fire the charges in the magazine — and who was, I think, understandably somewhat distracted by the fact that he was having to make up powder charges for the guns on the fly because the battle had lasted so long that she'd used up all of her existing cartridges — was killed by a grenade before anyone could tell him what was happening on deck.

I may been guilty of "handwavium "in setting up the battle at all — frankly, I don't think I was (obviously) — but given the circumstances confronting the ship's crew, the fact that the magazines weren't blown up shouldn't seem all that inconceivable . . . or culpable.

And that is completely aside from the points I made in another thread in explaining why Merlin didn't blow the ship up after her capture.


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Re: [HFQ] SPOILERS -- Why didn't Merlin?
Post by n7axw   » Wed Oct 28, 2015 4:13 pm

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Thanks for this post, RFC. 90% of what you said was right there in the text.

Guys, are we Reading before we react???

Don
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