NinaKatarina wrote:Soooo, all you logistics guys, just how many miles per day are these troops reasonably able to cover? How many days of winter were left when we last left them, and what concentrations of enemy troops or logistics depots could they reasonably reach?
Where would YOU send them?
Once Green Valley gets to St. Zhans to Ohlahrn, it is only slightly farther to Ice Lizard lake than it is to Guarnak. Along the way the way the ICA provisions off of those enemy towns. Take what can be carried and hate to say it, but burn the remaining stockpiles beyond what the locals can carry away.
If GV races to Lake City through Hyrdmyn and Ice Lizard Lake, Wyrshym has to retreat or be caught at the far end of an overextended supply line come spring. If the ICA either lands more forces in Ranshair or simply retraces GV's route around Allyntyn, he gets flanked. At that point he either fights multiple fronts under provisioned or retreats anyway.
If Wyrshym retreats immediately, he loses a painfully significant amount of men during the journey. As in Napoleon retreating from Moscow significant. He needs to run through Five Forks and Sairmeet in order to get to Lake City. If Green Valley gets to Ohlahrn before Wyrshym finds out about the flanking maneuver, it would appear that both sides have similar distances to cover if not slightly less for Wyrshym. When he pulls back he has to leave a goodly chunk of men to crock Sylman's Gap. That rear guard is toast within 2 five days. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised if whoever was in charge of the Gap for the allies attacked real soon in an attempt to distract Wyrshym.
The safest course for Green Valley is not to attack anyone, but to overwhelm what forces are at Lake City. Every town along the way might be taken using overwhelming force and tactical surprise if not always strategic surprise. That sort of deep strike is truly beyond the scope of the AoG to envision. At 15 miles per day, that 1,000 mile trip takes slightly more than 2 months. GV's 40,000-ish men have 2 sizable towns to use to provision. Wyrshym needs to bring way more than 40k men to threaten GV. Whatever he does bring will be nearly impossible to feed during a winter cross-continental march without starving what he leaves behind.