The Howard Subcontinent and Logistics

Just looking at the map, it seems to me that once Silkiah is liberated, possessing and protecting the Salthar Canal doesn't pose a serious problem. They may want to take precaution such as sending scout snipers in coordination with riverclads to prevent destruction of the locks before the army arrives, but it should be doable.

Don

Hi SYED,

The problem of either South Harchong or Desnar going after the 'small fry'; Sodar, Delferahk etc, is what profit is in it for them?

The 'small fry' are all quite poor with nothing we know of now that would pay for the invasion let alone the occupation, so their poverty is also a protection from any but an idiot who'd impoverish his nation to hold such worthless real estate.

Decades ago I remember reading a book by a Pakistani general pointing out Pakistan's main reason for survival was India didn't want the headaches of trying to control or rule Pakistan, and that Pakistan's national security decisions should be built on that basis, not nonsense that skewed the nations limited resources away from truly building the country, which seemed surprisingly wise.

Silkiah is already rapidly increasing its arms production so it may soon outstrip Desnar in monthly modern arms production, while the few mountain passes might mean it needs to guard only a few dozen miles at most.

Given the roughly 1% of the population for the standing army most continental powers had before the SoS, 48 miles [I figure its about half that] means Silkiah could have 2 men for every linear foot guarding the frontier passes etc [assuming it was their only border to guard], while armed with weapons superior those of the AoNV at Petersburg whose pickets were able to be 5-6 yards apart, for only around 17,000 riflemen directly at any one time.

Besides the ready reserves behind them, the proximity of Silkiah means a far more rapid response to anything that does happen.

since most of the AoJ came from Hankey and North Watch, it will be month's if not next year before the Desnari empire could assemble another army the same size as the AoJ in North Watch, which will be far too late.

Consider the ICN and a relative handful of marines succeeded in compelling the Desnari to send all the supplies for the AoJ via Hankey Bay by occupying or controlling just a half dozen towns or points on the western coast of the Gulf of Jahras along the only high road north through the isthmus.

L


quote="SYED"]OK south harchong might be too much for desnair to aqcuire, but could the two bite up the smaller nations of howard, so sodar and delfrank, and i think there are a couple more. I doubt any of them were included in the church logistical plans for weaponry.
IN fact,silkiah might need to get republic or charis aid to remain independant of desnair. IT would not require much. HOward bay forces to ensure no desnair ships get close, and enough forces to make it that the only high road on the land bridge is blockaded against any military force.[/quote]

SAy silkiah is broken free of desnair, i wonder if the republic or charis use this to expand the Duchy's border down to that thin land bridge, so to minimize desnair access to the region. SO not only independant, but slight increase in size. The grand duke might be bribed wit hte ownership of islands in the region added to his holding.
There is said to be a single high road, for road travel. THat makes it seem that it would be simple to secure.

Some people earlier in this thread were talking about Thirsk and Alhverez doing various things in Dohlar. It seems to me, however, that certainly Alhverez and quite possibly Thirsk will soon be in no position to do anything at all.

First, Alhverez. He escaped the destruction of the Army of Justice, but only managed to get a small force out (32,000 Dohlarans and 13,000 Desnairians). This army is hundreds of miles away away from any resupply or reinforcements; it's questionable whether it will hold together long enough for the ICA to destroy it. Ahlverez himself could very well be killed or captured in the coming five-days, in which case he wouldn't be able to influence Dohlaran domestic policy at all. But even if he successfully returns to Dohlar, he's a general who got his army annihilated. Even without Clyhntahn's influence, he'd probably be fired at least; as it is, the only question in my mind is whether he'll be "merely" executed or subjected to the full Punishment as retribution for his "cowardice and incompetence".

In the case of Thirsk, the situation is more remote, but I think no less dire. The ICN in LAMA was in the process of establishing coaling stations that would enable the King Haarahlds to operate in Dohlaran waters. When they finally comission, the King Haraahlds will annihilate the RDN. If Thirsk manages to remain alive and uncaptured afterwards, his political enemies - such as his boss, Duke Thorast - will almost certainly be able to ruin him, which given the habits of the Inquisition will almost certainly result in Thirsk's death.

In short, I don't think Thirsk or Alhverez will be able to do anything to influence Dohlaran domestic affairs, because they'll be either dead or in Charisian hands (or both - it wouldn't surprise me if some Charisian sailor or naval officer decided to kill Thirsk in retribution for handing his prisoners over to the Inquisition).

Hi SYED,

Adding the northern section of Desnar's North watch province would increase the area of Silkiah by about 100,000 square miles or by 10-12+%, nothing to sneeze at given all the extra taxpayers.

Apparently the territory on the west side of the isthmus is so bad no high road has ever been considered there, no do I think either Desnar or the CoGA will be able to afford building one now, regardless of how long it takes.

Given only one high speed route of approach, the alliance's defenses reinforced by the navy being easily in range, ought to present an almost insurmountable obstacle for Desnar, even if it had CoGA financial support which I doubt, because I suspect Rhobair is going to enjoy cutting them off with Allayn's support; after all, they can spend the money far better elsewhere.

L

SYED wrote:SAy silkiah is broken free of desnair, i wonder if the republic or charis use this to expand the Duchy's border down to that thin land bridge, so to minimize desnair access to the region. SO not only independant, but slight increase in size. The grand duke might be bribed wit hte ownership of islands in the region added to his holding.
There is said to be a single high road, for road travel. THat makes it seem that it would be simple to secure.

Hi Caliban,

Allow me to disagree, despite all of RFC's tricks, I'd be surprised if Ahlverez is toast.

He is first cousin to the Duke of Malikai, one of the most important and powerful persons in Dohlar, while Graim Kyr is dead if not a POW, so the coward Hennet is the only one who escaped the AoS high command and has far more to answer for.

Why do you think he is so opposed or hated by the Dohlaran court, when there's no textev?

Opinions here aside, the fact he was chosen to be the Army's field commander tells me he is very popular with the court and the important decision makers, so all the suck ups liked him very much too.

Given he brought back [or will] far more troops [~35%] including 13,000 Desnari than anyone else from that trap, he will still have the support of the powers that be and the court suck ups will continue to ape and echo them, I don't see a problem for him from Dohlar, especially since the Duke of Fern is a remarkably able first minister for such an incompetent king.

I suspect any inquisitors who tried to arrest him before his army might have a remarkable series of purely coincidental accidents before they had a chance to present themselves, while any smart ones realized a mistake had been made and postponed things until clarifications were made.

But I don't think that's going to happen because Ahlverez's intendant, Father Sulyvyn's report ought to clear things up considerably, especially if copies are sent by messenger wyverns; matching up with what the Go4 already know about Desnari logistic incompetence that has caused much of their defeats over the past 2 centuries, combined with their arrogant refusal to accept Rhobair's help, and refusal to use the new manufacturing techniques [irritating Allayn] so they were the worse armed force the Go4 had created, in other words a disaster half expected.

So far we have no evidence that Clyntahn harbors Ahlverez any ill will, aside from posters think Clyntahn will be furious about losing the AoS, or because Ahlverez didn't keep attacking until he was destroyed; but since he hasn't removed either Wyrshym or Kaitswyrth for not doing that, I'm more sanguine about any punishment he attempts with Ahlverez when both Rhobair and Allayn are so strongly opposed.

Thirsk may lose much of his fleet but if its still a major organised force at the capitol when Dohlar collapses, or when Fern sees a way out by establishing a regency for one of Rahnyld's sons or grandsons, making Thirsk a regent with Ahlverez, and negotiate terms with the alliance, something still called the Kingdom of Dohlar might still survive the present turmoil.

Dohlar has some 97 million people, plenty if there are weapons for the ~1/1000th needed to replace its first army; if Ahlverez received 20,000 replacements in the couple month's he was at Fort Tairys, it won't take that long; given their armories are among the best on the continents, and in what has become a fight for survival, finding the money needed will happen, just as Corisande created the cash it needed, so don't count them out yet.

Desnar OTOH, is pretty much out of it, because I can see Rhobair arguing they can do more with the cash saved from ending Desnar's subsidies than Desnar could in trying to assemble a new army, particularly when the alliance is about to take Silkiah, especially the Salthar canal.

L

Caliban wrote:Personally, I think Ahlvarez is toast no matter what happens; as has been noted, he's the only one to get some of his troops out of a very bad situation,and he did it with his Inquisitor's approval- not that that will mean very bloody much to His Grand Festering Pustulence when it comes to finding a scapegoat for that whole debacle- and as much as he might like to, surrendering to the EoC is just not in the cards. Not that he would, mind you; he's very much the CoGA's man and probably realizes that his best option is to catch a bullet rather than submitting to the full Punishment- which is very likely what his fate will be if he gets back.Add to that the fact that his enemies (at least on the battlefield, not to mention the throne room) have very little sympathy for him. He's in a bad spot no matter what he does, and he knows it.

Thirsk is another matter. Agreed, he won't budge while his family is basically under house arrest, but IMO the bottom line is he's a good man doing his very best in a bad situation, and while Thorast has it in for him in a big way the Army's getting their gluteus handed to them will make him back off a bit for a while, at any rate. However, he does have some sympathy building among the Inner Circle; they know he really didn't have a choice about handing over the prisoners, and they know how he feels about being forsworn in the matter. Add to that is the fact that while he's dangerous to a point- look at the idea of the screw galley; not his idea, but he recognized a good idea when it was brought to him. He is, in my analysis, a fairly flexible individual and as time goes by and he sees more and more the hypocrisy of the CoGA, he'll find his trend toward Charis expanding.Get his family to safety and I think he'll seriously consider the idea that just maybe God isn't on his nation's or the CoGA's side and it would be a good time to decamp.

And yes, I really would like to see His Corpulence's reaction to that- catastrophic apoplexy, anyone?

More to the point, however, Dohlar is about done. Even with his navy's success, there just isn't enough manpower or money available even with the CoGA's backing- and that is starting to feel the strain as well.Desnair is about in the same situation, so it wont take too much to put the both of them down for the count.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Caliban,

Allow me to disagree, despite all of RFC's tricks, I'd be surprised if Ahlverez is toast.

He is first cousin to the Duke of Malikai, one of the most important and powerful persons in Dohlar, while Graim Kyr is dead if not a POW, so the coward Hennet is the only one who escaped the AoS high command and has far more to answer for.

Why do you think he is he opposed or hated by the Dohlaran court, when there's no textev?

Opinions here aside, the fact he was chosen to be the Army's field commander tells me he is very popular with the court and the important decision makers, so all the suck ups liked him very much too.

Given he brought back [or will] far more troops [~35%] including 13,000 Desnari than anyone else from that trap, he will still have the support of the powers that be and the court suck ups will continue to ape and echo them, I don't see a problem for him from Dohlar, especially since the Duke of Fern is a remarkably able first minister for such an incompetent king.

I suspect any inquisitors who tried to arrest him before his army might have a remarkable series of purely coincidental accidents before they had a chance to present themselves, while any smart ones realized a mistake had been made and postponed things until clarifications were made.

But I don't think that's going to happen because Ahlverez's intendant, Father Sulyvyn's report ought to clear things up considerably, especially if copies are sent by messenger wyverns; matching up with what the Go4 already know about Desnari logistic incompetence that has caused much of their defeats over the past 2 centuries, combined with their arrogant refusal to accept Rhobair's help, and refusal to use the new manufacturing techniques [irritating Allayn] so they were the worse armed force the Go4 had created, in other words a disaster half expected.

So far we have no evidence that Clyntahn harbors Ahlverez any ill will, aside from posters think Clyntahn will be furious about losing the AoS, or because Ahlverez didn't keep attacking until he was destroyed; but since he hasn't removed either Wyrshym or Kaitswyrth for not doing that, I'm more sanguine about any punishment he attempts with Ahlverez when both Rhobair and Allayn are so strongly opposed.

Thirsk may lose much of his fleet but if its still a major organised force at the capitol when Dohlar collapses, or when Fern sees a way out by establishing a regency for one of Rahnyld's sons or grandsons, making Thirsk a regent with Ahlverez, and negotiate terms with the alliance, something still called the Kingdom of Dohlar might still survive the present turmoil.

Dohlar has some 97 million people, plenty if there are weapons for the ~1/1000th needed to replace its first army; if Ahlverez received 20,000 replacements in the couple month's he was at fort Tairys, it won't take that long; given their armories are among the best on the continents, and in what has become a fight for survival, finding the money needed will happen, just as Corisande created the cash it needed, so don't count them out yet.

Desnar OTOH, is pretty much out of it, because I can see Rhobair arguing they can do more with the cash saved from ending Desnar's subsidies than Desnar could in trying to assemble a new army, particularly when the alliance is about to take Silkiah, especially the Salthar canal.

Nice post, Lyonheart...

I would only add that Clyntahn will soon be preoccupied with what Green Valley does to the Army of Sylvan Gap.

Don

Hi Don,

Thanks for the kind post.

Regarding BGV and Wyrshym, yes that will tick off Clyntahn, but Symkyns finishing off Kaitswyrth will enrage him even further I think.

Dividing tTMHoGatA into smaller armies to replace both the AoG's will infuriate him even more, especially when they are defeated...

By summer he could be boiling himself into glue.

L

n7axw wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi Caliban,

Allow me to disagree, despite all of RFC's tricks, I'd be surprised if Ahlverez is toast.

He is first cousin to the Duke of Malikai, one of the most important and powerful persons in Dohlar, while Graim Kyr is dead if not a POW, so the coward Hennet is the only one who escaped the AoS high command and has far more to answer for.

Why do you think he is he opposed or hated by the Dohlaran court, when there's no textev?

Opinions here aside, the fact he was chosen to be the Army's field commander tells me he is very popular with the court and the important decision makers, so all the suck ups liked him very much too.

Given he brought back [or will] far more troops [~35%] including 13,000 Desnari than anyone else from that trap, he will still have the support of the powers that be and the court suck ups will continue to ape and echo them, I don't see a problem for him from Dohlar, especially since the Duke of Fern is a remarkably able first minister for such an incompetent king.

I suspect any inquisitors who tried to arrest him before his army might have a remarkable series of purely coincidental accidents before they had a chance to present themselves, while any smart ones realized a mistake had been made and postponed things until clarifications were made.

But I don't think that's going to happen because Ahlverez's intendant, Father Sulyvyn's report ought to clear things up considerably, especially if copies are sent by messenger wyverns; matching up with what the Go4 already know about Desnari logistic incompetence that has caused much of their defeats over the past 2 centuries, combined with their arrogant refusal to accept Rhobair's help, and refusal to use the new manufacturing techniques [irritating Allayn] so they were the worse armed force the Go4 had created, in other words a disaster half expected.

So far we have no evidence that Clyntahn harbors Ahlverez any ill will, aside from posters think Clyntahn will be furious about losing the AoS, or because Ahlverez didn't keep attacking until he was destroyed; but since he hasn't removed either Wyrshym or Kaitswyrth for not doing that, I'm more sanguine about any punishment he attempts with Ahlverez when both Rhobair and Allayn are so strongly opposed.

Thirsk may lose much of his fleet but if its still a major organised force at the capitol when Dohlar collapses, or when Fern sees a way out by establishing a regency for one of Rahnyld's sons or grandsons, making Thirsk a regent with Ahlverez, and negotiate terms with the alliance, something still called the Kingdom of Dohlar might still survive the present turmoil.

Dohlar has some 97 million people, plenty if there are weapons for the ~1/1000th needed to replace its first army; if Ahlverez received 20,000 replacements in the couple month's he was at fort Tairys, it won't take that long; given their armories are among the best on the continents, and in what has become a fight for survival, finding the money needed will happen, just as Corisande created the cash it needed, so don't count them out yet.

Desnar OTOH, is pretty much out of it, because I can see Rhobair arguing they can do more with the cash saved from ending Desnar's subsidies than Desnar could in trying to assemble a new army, particularly when the alliance is about to take Silkiah, especially the Salthar canal.

Nice post, Lyonheart...

I would only add that Clyntahn will soon be preoccupied with what Green Valley does to the Army of Sylvan Gap.

Don

THe inquisitors will not like howard being cut off from haven, they could potentially see it being a breeding ground for heresy if they cant maintain their control over the region. so i expect an extreme reaction carried out to ensure that those nations are kept well in line and faithful to church doctrine.

SYED wrote:THe inquisitors will not like howard being cut off from haven, they could potentially see it being a breeding ground for heresy if they cant maintain their control over the region. so i expect an extreme reaction carried out to ensure that those nations are kept well in line and faithful to church doctrine.

That... sounds like it would have the exact OPPOSITE effect.