Thucydides wrote:Like many posters, I doubt there is a "choice" involved. Either you take active measures or eventually the Enemy will discover you.
Far better to make contact at the time and place of your own choosing.
A single solar system probably does not provide enough energy and material to take on the enemy (the entire Terran Federation was essentially overwhelmed by the production capability of the Gbaba), but there are options once a breakout into space can be achieved:
If Von Numann machines are possible, entire fleets can be built by self replicating "seed factories" deposited at every suitable solar system (i.e. anyplace with matter and energy, even if humans might not be able to inhabit the system). even if you are simply building FTL missile busses, you will overwhelm the enemy through sheer weight of fire.
Humans could choose to colonize habitable planets circling Red Dwarf stars. If recent research is core ct, there may be as many as 60
billion habitable planets circling Red Dwarf stars in our galaxy alone.
Go one better than Langhorne and research moving into alternative dimensions or "pocket universes" (variation, figure out a way to enclose the Enemy in a "pocket universe").
Other ideas are possible, I lack the imagination to think of them right now...
The key is production capability, much like the Allies were able to defeat the axis powers ultimately not though better equipment (compare the Sherman tank to a Panther or Tiger, for example), or better soldiers (debatable, but the Germans and Japanese were certainly battle hardened forces and to be treated with respect) but having more resources and being able to deploy them to the fight.
In my own thinking I've broken the long-term program into 4 periods:
Breaking Langhorne's Legacy - Basically our story so far. This won't be completed until the secular and cultural power of the CoGA is destroyed, and the threats of the returning Archangels and the Rakurai are dealt with (whatever that may mean).
Human Renaissance - This is mainly about reshaping the dominant culture into something that can accept the reality of human history and the challenges going forward without imploding. Ideally, the truth would gradually come out over several generations, but that wouldn't be as much fun, would it?
Breakout - Safehold is well outside of any immediate Gbaba threat, but a responsible leadership wouldn't want to rely on that forever. Instead I think they'd mount an aggressive development program aimed at building a civilization that could withstand and defeat a Gbaba assault. That means:
- Focused, long-term military R&D to create a decisive advantage.
- First wave colonies sited for their industrial potential. For a given colony lets say 10 years to terraform, 10 years of intensive settlement/terraforming completion, and 5 years of industrial development. If they build 2 terraforming fleets then they can set up a virtual assembly line of colonies, with a new world opening up every 10 years. Let's say Safehold has a population of 3 billion with a growth rate of 1 percent at the start of this. Population-wise, they could easily support 10 million settlers/year. And these colonies wouldn't be like Operation Ark; they'd have full contact and support from the mother world.
- At least a couple Operation Ark-style safety colonies. They'd have orders not to attempt contact for a century or so, just in case.
- Don't build a big fleet initially, just enough for escort, exploration, and experience. Once they reach a suitable level of tech, then build a battle fleet capable of demolishing any Gbaba attack.
End Game - Once humanity is 'safe' expansion can continue more 'normally'. New colonies could be built for national or cultural reasons. For example: the Church of Langhorne (descendent of the CoGA) might build a limited tech colony where people could live simply according the the Holy Writ. There could be a 'New Corisande' or a 'New Harchong'.
The military up to this point has been built based on existing, limited knowledge of the Gbaba. R&D might refocus a bit to emphasize stealth and Hyperdrive speed to enable scout missions toward/into Gbaba space. The goal would be to get the information humanity will need to decide how to deal with them once and for all.
I see 4 basic options (what I call the 4 B's):
- Beat 'em. Genocide might be simply a long-term policy based on a political process. A decisive defeat could convince them to change that policy. A comparable situation is what happened to Emerald after their fleet was smashed. Nahrmahn basically said 'Well
that didn't work, time to try something else.' I think that this is
extremely unlikely, but I'm trying to be comprehensive.
- Break 'em. They may be xenophobic and genocidal at a cultural level - perhaps driven by religion or some racial trauma. Humanity could win by
almost destroying them, occupying the remainder, and rebuilding their civilization along less destructive lines.
- Burn 'em. Xenophobia may be at the genetic level, where the Gbaba
can't be reformed. I hate to use the term 'rabid dog' but it sort of applies - all humanity can do is put them down as quickly as possible. I can see the Federation leadership being very reluctant to do this because we're the good guys, and good guys don't exterminate other guys, but sometimes the worst choice is the only real choice.
- Blow 'em off. 'The best revenge is to live well.' Humanity is well outside of Gbaba space. Maybe far enough that it will be a couple thousand years before the Gbaba can even theoretically detect us. If they're non-expansionist then they're the galactic equivalent of the crazy guy in the woods who patrols his property with a shotgun - it's simpler to avoid him than confront. The cheapest option would be to maintain vigilance, continue to expand and progress. As time passes humanity's advantage will only grow. When/if the the Gbaba discovers us and attacks, dealing with them will be less about survival than pest control.
Now, after going through all this (and congratulations if you made it this far), I have to say that it's pretty certainly not going to happen this way. This is just a framework to organize my own thinking. Kind of the ideal path for an ultimate strategy (not to mention it would lead to about a 20 to 25 volume count for the series
). As others have pointed out in this thread there are all sorts of ways this 'best laid plan' could go astray. And I'm certain RFC already has a collection of monkey wrenches ready to throw into the gears.
Anyway, this has been bouncing around my head for a while, so thanks for the opportunity to get it out of my system.
jms
