Gun evolution

n7axw wrote:I think that I agree with you on your main point, Harold. But those are weapons for the next war. M96s will probably be the final stage for this war.

Don

I didn't think it necessary to keep repeating my belief that there will be no further advances before this war ends.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:I think that I agree with you on your main point, Harold. But those are weapons for the next war. M96s will probably be the final stage for this war.

Don

I didn't think it necessary to keep repeating my belief that there will be no further advances before this war ends.

I think that there will be 1 more advance before the end of the war: smokeless powder. Smokeless powder is in the process of being produced, and when it is used as the propellant for the M96 rounds, it will be a game changer, especially for the scout snipers.

iranuke wrote:I think that there will be 1 more advance before the end of the war: smokeless powder.

A matter of definition: I consider smokeless powder and Gun Cotton to be advances already made but not in full production.

Semi and Full automatic weapons are not even mentioned as desired concepts in textev yet. Revolvers and Bolt-action Rifles seem to be the limit of repeating arms development so far.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:I think that I agree with you on your main point, Harold. But those are weapons for the next war. M96s will probably be the final stage for this war.

Don

I didn't think it necessary to keep repeating my belief that there will be no further advances before this war ends.

I think the prospect of further firearm development depends on how soon RFC chooses to end the current war. As I see it, long as Clyntahn is in power the CoG will never negotiate with Charis, hence the war will continue until one side is beaten. He could have Duchairn take out Clyntahn and sign some kind of armistice or peace treaty with Charis and Siddarmark.

But if this does not happen, given the size of the armies and the distances involved I think around 2 years from the end of LAMA is the earliest possible timeframe for a Charis/Siddarmark military victory. In this estimate, I am projecting roughly one year to deal with the massive Harchongese army as well as the other AoG forces still in Siddarmark. And then one additional year for Charis and Siddarmark to launch a war ending counter offensive. And if the war ends in this timeframe then I agree there might not be time for another generation of weapon development.

However, I tend to think that 2 years might be a bit optimistic. Remember, the CoG still controls the majority of Safehold's population and resources. They can continue to raise large forces for awhile to come. I could see the war stretching for 3 or 4 more years. And if this timeframe happens, then I think we will see the introduction of machine guns.

Henry Brown wrote:However, I tend to think that 2 years might be a bit optimistic. Remember, the CoG still controls the majority of Safehold's population and resources. They can continue to raise large forces for awhile to come. I could see the war stretching for 3 or 4 more years. And if this timeframe happens, then I think we will see the introduction of machine guns.

I tend to think that two years might be a bit pessimistic. I don't have a lot of respect for Harchong's conscripted peasant army; I think they're more dangerous to the Harchong Empire than they are to Charis and Siddarmark.

The primary limitation on Charis' advance to Zion seems to be logistics, and I would expect Tactical Rail and/or Steam Trucks to make an appearance before machine guns; better transportation and better logistics is going to do more to shorten the war than automatic firearms.

Weird Harold wrote:I tend to think that two years might be a bit pessimistic. I don't have a lot of respect for Harchong's conscripted peasant army; I think they're more dangerous to the Harchong Empire than they are to Charis and Siddarmark.

The primary limitation on Charis' advance to Zion seems to be logistics, and I would expect Tactical Rail and/or Steam Trucks to make an appearance before machine guns; better transportation and better logistics is going to do more to shorten the war than automatic firearms.

With regards to the state of the Harchonese army as originally constituted, I would say you are absolutely correct. The army that left Harchong was badly trained, and poorly equipped. But since then, Duchairn has organized a program to re-arm them and the AoG has undertaken a winter-long training program. I would expect this to make a big difference.

A historical example of this would be the winter training that Washington's army received at Valley Forge during the American Revolution. In addition there is the sheer size of the Harchongese army. It will be extremely difficult to wipe them out quickly, which will give the survivors of the initial battles a chance to gain combat experience.

The other factor to consider is that RFC does not do one sided military porn. I just can't see him writing a book in which the entire million and a half man Harchongese army is wiped out as quickly as you seem to think. Remember, he might have once titled a book "The Short Victorious War." But he usually does not write about them.

Henry Brown wrote:I just can't see him writing a book in which the entire million and a half man Harchongese army is wiped out as quickly as you seem to think.

Not wiped out, just defeated and disenchanted with the Harchongese aristocracy.

Henry Brown wrote:A historical example of this would be the winter training that Washington's army received at Valley Forge during the American Revolution. ...

I think a better historical example is the conscript Russian peasants Tzar Nicholas sent to the Eastern Front in WWI. They did not defeat the Germans, nor even put up a good fight against them.

They did however, mutiny and then go home and support the Bolsheviks in overturning the Tsar and Russian aristocracy.

The Harchong regiments in the AoG are far closer to Conscripted Russian Peasants than American Revolutionary Volunteers.

Weird Harold wrote:

Henry Brown wrote:I just can't see him writing a book in which the entire million and a half man Harchongese army is wiped out as quickly as you seem to think.

Not wiped out, just defeated and disenchanted with the Harchongese aristocracy.

Henry Brown wrote:A historical example of this would be the winter training that Washington's army received at Valley Forge during the American Revolution. ...

I think a better historical example is the conscript Russian peasants Tzar Nicholas sent to the Eastern Front in WWI. They did not defeat the Germans, nor even put up a good fight against them.

They did however, mutiny and then go home and support the Bolsheviks in overturning the Tsar and Russian aristocracy.

The Harchong regiments in the AoG are far closer to Conscripted Russian Peasants than American Revolutionary Volunteers.

I agree with Harold on this one. Then too, what has the Army of God actually accomplished except wiping out units armed with pikes? Kaitswryth's tactical victory against Taisyn on the Daiyvn which was horrifically expensive and turned out to be a strategic defeat. That's it. Very little to suggest that the AOG trainers know what it takes much more than the Harchongese. They will make the Hachongese better disciplined and a bit tougher, not otherwise...?

Don

Weird Harold wrote:

Henry Brown wrote:I just can't see him writing a book in which the entire million and a half man Harchongese army is wiped out as quickly as you seem to think.

Not wiped out, just defeated and disenchanted with the Harchongese aristocracy.

Henry Brown wrote:A historical example of this would be the winter training that Washington's army received at Valley Forge during the American Revolution. ...

I think a better historical example is the conscript Russian peasants Tzar Nicholas sent to the Eastern Front in WWI. They did not defeat the Germans, nor even put up a good fight against them.

They did however, mutiny and then go home and support the Bolsheviks in overturning the Tsar and Russian aristocracy.

The Harchong regiments in the AoG are far closer to Conscripted Russian Peasants than American Revolutionary Volunteers.

I agree with Harold on this one. Then too, what has the Army of God actually accomplished except wiping out units armed with pikes? Kaitswryth's tactical victory against Taisyn on the Deify which was horrifically expensive and turned out to be a strategic defeat. That's it. Very little to suggest that the AOG trainers know what it takes much more than the Harchongese. They will make the Hachongese better disciplined and a bit tougher, not otherwise...?

Don

While I doubt that the Harchongese peasants troops will win against the allied forces, I'm suspecting that they'll surprise people.

It's a dangerous game to underestimate the "bad guys".

It is possible that trainers know more that you're giving them credit.

Also, one possible advantage the trainers may have is that they won't have to "untrain" the peasants.

The peasants don't know the "old ways" of infantry warfare so they'll be more able to learn the "new ways" than would troops that "know what works".

Yes, the Temple trainers are "playing catch up" but they may be on the "right track".

Oh, while I doubt the peasants will win against the Allies, they may very well "teach" the Harchongese aristocracy a few lessons.

n7axw wrote:

Weird Harold wrote:
Not wiped out, just defeated and disenchanted with the Harchongese aristocracy.

I think a better historical example is the conscript Russian peasants Tzar Nicholas sent to the Eastern Front in WWI. They did not defeat the Germans, nor even put up a good fight against them.

They did however, mutiny and then go home and support the Bolsheviks in overturning the Tsar and Russian aristocracy.

The Harchong regiments in the AoG are far closer to Conscripted Russian Peasants than American Revolutionary Volunteers.

I agree with Harold on this one. Then too, what has the Army of God actually accomplished except wiping out units armed with pikes? Kaitswryth's tactical victory against Taisyn on the Deify which was horrifically expensive and turned out to be a strategic defeat. That's it. Very little to suggest that the AOG trainers know what it takes much more than the Harchongese. They will make the Hachongese better disciplined and a bit tougher, not otherwise...?

Don