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Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)

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Re: Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Jun 24, 2014 10:09 pm

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I agree. Unfortunately, Sharley cut her forces to much to prevent the ijits from being tempted. They'll bite and it's Windshare to the rescue!

On my reread, I'll play the the score to the final action scenes of most recent Lone Ranger film. I'll die laughing it there is a trooper named Tahntoh scouting for his force.

n7axw wrote:
I'm wore concerned about Sharley's "idiot aristocracy" at the moment than I am Corisande. Chisholm probably shouldn't be drawn down further. Corisande still bears watching as Daivyn and Irys settle in. Still, Corisande has a fairly large pool of vets who could be recruited and sent to Chisholm's training facility without diminishing the already lean forces on hand.

Don
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Re: Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)
Post by SYED   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 12:44 am

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Do we all believe that the retreating dohlar force will get back to their own lines?
They are deeply in need of supplies, but most of their men are gone. I guess total number of 56000 men or less. The thing is due to their size they will be forced to use the main roads, sure they could attempt cross country, but again they dont have supplies. Do they even know thesma is on the move so the closest supplies they believe are theren have been taken.
It is possibly for some of the men to get back, i doubt they are in the best shape and numbers will fall.
They might bdes marching faster than ever before, but they had an intact logistics system no matter how poor it was. While they must deal with poor weather.
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Re: Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)
Post by n7axw   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:55 am

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SYED wrote:Do we all believe that the retreating dohlar force will get back to their own lines?
They are deeply in need of supplies, but most of their men are gone. I guess total number of 56000 men or less. The thing is due to their size they will be forced to use the main roads, sure they could attempt cross country, but again they dont have supplies. Do they even know thesma is on the move so the closest supplies they believe are theren have been taken.
It is possibly for some of the men to get back, i doubt they are in the best shape and numbers will fall.
They might bdes marching faster than ever before, but they had an intact logistics system no matter how poor it was. While they must deal with poor weather.


Interesting question. IIRC, Ahlvarez has his own force of 15000 Dohlarians, plus some 13,000 Desnairian calvary. He'd left another force at Thesmar who had competent leadership, Rychtar I believe, who retreated back toward Dohlar, and was met by reinforcements armed with St Klymans. The question will be if they can join up with Rychtar. Dunno how that will turn out. If they do make it back they might be able to regroup and be a force that Siddarmark and EOC would have to take the time to deal with. A question that interests me if if Ahlvarez finds himself trapped between Hanath and Eastshare, does he fight or surrender?

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)
Post by DrakBibliophile   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:03 am

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IMO if David Weber intended for Ahlvarez (and his forces) to be killed or captured, he would have done it in the last book.

IMO Ahlvarez will be a factor in the next book. Oh, I don't think the Inquisition will kill him.

n7axw wrote:
SYED wrote:Do we all believe that the retreating dohlar force will get back to their own lines?
They are deeply in need of supplies, but most of their men are gone. I guess total number of 56000 men or less. The thing is due to their size they will be forced to use the main roads, sure they could attempt cross country, but again they dont have supplies. Do they even know thesma is on the move so the closest supplies they believe are theren have been taken.
It is possibly for some of the men to get back, i doubt they are in the best shape and numbers will fall.
They might bdes marching faster than ever before, but they had an intact logistics system no matter how poor it was. While they must deal with poor weather.


Interesting question. IIRC, Ahlvarez has his own force of 15000 Dohlarians, plus some 13,000 Desnairian calvary. He'd left another force at Thesmar who had competent leadership, Rychtar I believe, who retreated back toward Dohlar, and was met by reinforcements armed with St Klymans. The question will be if they can join up with Rychtar. Dunno how that will turn out. If they do make it back they might be able to regroup and be a force that Siddarmark and EOC would have to take the time to deal with. A question that interests me if if Ahlvarez finds himself trapped between Hanath and Eastshare, does he fight or surrender?

Don
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Re: Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 10:17 am

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Yeah, Ahlvarez is being set up as a player for some reason. Between he and Thirsk, there is a core group that will stick together when the fecal matter strikes the rotary impeller.

If HFQ is the final book in this arc, the wheels will come off for Dohlar during this next Allied offensive. That means Dohlar needs some rallying points if they are to survive widespread anarchy. Thirsk is not enough by himself, even if he survives.


DrakBibliophile wrote:IMO if David Weber intended for Ahlvarez (and his forces) to be killed or captured, he would have done it in the last book.

IMO Ahlvarez will be a factor in the next book. Oh, I don't think the Inquisition will kill him.
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Re: Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)
Post by isaac_newton   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 1:44 pm

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PeterZ wrote:Yeah, Ahlvarez is being set up as a player for some reason. Between he and Thirsk, there is a core group that will stick together when the fecal matter strikes the rotary impeller.

If HFQ is the final book in this arc, the wheels will come off for Dohlar during this next Allied offensive. That means Dohlar needs some rallying points if they are to survive widespread anarchy. Thirsk is not enough by himself, even if he survives.


DrakBibliophile wrote:IMO if David Weber intended for Ahlvarez (and his forces) to be killed or captured, he would have done it in the last book.

IMO Ahlvarez will be a factor in the next book. Oh, I don't think the Inquisition will kill him.


yup - Alvarez positive statements about Thirsk, do seem to signal an interesting re-alignment in Dohlaran politics
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Re: Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Jun 26, 2014 1:41 am

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Hi PeterZ,

What is the production rate for mortars?

1 or 2 a day?

5 a day?

10 a day?

The 150 mortars were a very big item in the arms convoy yet they represented less than 4% of the mortars the ICN needed if it then had ~360,000 in combat units, assuming the scout sniper regiments don't have any and not counting the Corisande garrison; nor was there any mention of giving them to the RSA at that point, so yes I think they were for the ICA, specifically DE's first 80,000+ men who may have been trained on mortars, but not yet dully equipped since they were so far away from Maikelberg.

I wouldn't be surprised production was at the low end of that range a year ago or when the SoS attacked, given Howsmyn didn't have an assembly line to produce them in such numbers.

We don't know the ratio of mortars the RSA will have but even if only half that of the ICA, they would still need 2250 for the RSA's 30 divisions in service or training, plus their artillery, which the empire must mainly supply, and at 1 battalion per brigade or equivalent, that's 1500 12 pounders, with out getting into 4" rifles and 6" angles.

The quickest and simplest way may be for the ICA to turn over their current inventory as its artillery is upgraded, but that could be slow, perhaps too slow to adequately fight the IHA etc.

While we haven't any textev of bottleneck's in mortar or artillery production for the ICA yet, we also haven't had any about supplying the RSA on top of that.

Hopefully HFQ will resolve these questions or the book after that, apparently the last for this bridge of the story.

Regarding Corisande saving Chisholm, Windshare may figuratively rescue Empress Sharleyan (who's safe in Cherayth, far away), and die charging doing it, but until RFC sheds some further light, we can only speculate.

Personally, I suspect Gahrvai will be there too, since the window for the traitors will be narrowing by the end of summer, but don't forget Chermyn is closer in Zebediah with his own garrison and lots of eager volunteers.


PeterZ wrote:Well, Lyonheart, the convoy was primarily sent to arm the Siddermarkians. I suspect those 150 mortars are in excess of ICA needs. If the ICA mortars had already been sent to Chisholm, there might well be very few to send with the convoy. All that is indeed supposition until HFQ.

What isn't supposition is that Charis will have had time to ramp up production by the time the KH VIIs sail for Corisande. Ramp up production not only from Delthak, but from all the steel works of Charis. I am sure whatever force gets sent to Dohlar will have plenty of infantry toys and a cadre to train that force in their use.

I had a thought recently. Suppose Koryn Gahrvai takes his Corisandian infatry to Dohlar. They decide to keep Windshare at home. Then the Chisholm aristos show signs of becoming restless and Windshare comes to the rescue. I recall speculation that Corisande and Zebediah would save Sharley's bacon in Chisholm. It would be nice if the dashing Windshare would be a key instrument of that salvation.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Maybe you're right, but given how few mortars there were being produced when the SoS struck the republic, ie only 150 in all of Charis for the arms convoy, I strongly doubt the Corisande garrison was the ICA's top priority given how closely OWL and everybody were monitoring things there.

Getting the ICA up to speed, NTM it was BGV's idea, leads me to think Maikelberg had first call on all production, just to get the training and doctrine down.

Again since the TO&E provides a mortar for almost every 90 soldiers in a battalion, the ICA if up to 450,000 combat troops requires 5,000 just for itself before we get into how many the SRA needs.

Then again, since DE had twice that ratio, the ICA could need 10,000 itself. ;)

L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Jun 26, 2014 2:35 am

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Hi Deqnius,

Clarity of expression is critical to communication, and primarily the responsibility of the sender.

I presume by 'late summer or soon after' you mean autumn or fall, which is what I said.

I believe I already pointed out these clashes could be the last naval battles for some time, so RFC probably wasn't going to pass by the opportunity to detail all the differences from Terran history.

12-20 armored ships against ~80 war galleons [besides another 30-60 ICN war galleons] sounds too close to slaughter for RFC to me, nor does it fit what else I think is happening or will in Dohlar.

If the Silkiah canal is taken then Howard is physically cut off from Zion, that includes the semaphore; while messenger schooners from Dohlar will work it delays the response time from hours to at least a 5day or more, before getting into interceptions by ICN schooners, which can soon be too long to be worth bothering to attempt, while the delay and relative isolation could have all sorts of interesting effects in Desnar.

Other posters have suggested again that the Corisande army and garrison may be delayed by Chisholm erupting, NTM the idea that Corisande officers and NCO's are going to pick up what took BGV a couple of years to pound through the ICA even with DE's support, in just a few month's laughable, even if they're all eager to learn new things.

I'd be very interested if you could share some examples from history of any army so out of date tactically that managed successful combat only a few month's after the notice to modernize.

Then again, how many more are there like Sheltyn?

Again there is a 50,000+ man ICN force already in theater, probably near Silkiah, yet to play, so once the canal is taken available for the amphibious raids on Dohlar if not much more.

I have already repeatedly mentioned the advantages of sea power when it comes to raiding in this thread and elsewhere for some time, so why keep reiterating the obvious?

L


[quote="Deqnius"]Well, sorry for the bas spelling. So, Sharpfield indeed is in charge of the fleet at the moment. However I think I said that an attack of Thirsk fleet should happen lake summer of soon after. Rock Point may not be there at the moment but I believe he will come with the ironclads, the armored galleons he can get be that time and whatever
else he can get. This probably will be the last big naval battle for quite same time and given the importance of the gulf, I don't think he will take any chances and ignore the advantage of the SNARKS and coms. How many? I think anything above 12 ,both ironclads and armored galleons will be enough. Probably around 20 if he can get them at the time.
Screw galleys with rust - good. However salt water is the same in the open ocean and at the cost. Galleys were usually coastal ships. Small galleys more so and these were specifically designed to be small. There were a nice discussion on the topic in one of the first books I think.
Sharpfield doen't have the marines to do a lot more than holding the islands and pouncing on some sea towns in the western gulf after the navy drives away the Dohlar fleet.
Silkiah canal is indeed very important and should be closed , however that alone will not cut off the southern kingdoms. It will be difficult but the Temple can go around a few blocks be roads of through the cost.
The integration of the army of Corisande should have begun as soon as princedom became part of the empire. And the training of the army doesn't realy have to happen in Crisholm. There is big enough charisian garrison to train the corisandians and more than half a year to do so. Training the officers would be a little more tricky but not so much. So Charis can have the numbers there to land a significant force in Dohlar sometime in the autumn. And it doesn't have to occupy the kingdom. Burn the capital, the big coastal towns involved in the Navy creation, then move inland and trash anything remotely of use for the military or transportation - mines, foundries, bridges, canals, supply depots ... Considering the production numbers discussed in LaMA Dohlar should not be able to make more than 50 to 70K riffles and the corresponding artillery. And they will be needed badly north. Even if they don't send them all there, they still will be too few to cover the kingdom. And if the Temple sends the army of harchong south, they still need to travel vast distance to get there and if the charisians don't like the odds, they can simply get on their transports and sail to make trouble somewhere else.
[quote="lyonheart"]Hi Deqnius,

Kudos for a far more cogent post.

Nits: Rock Point isn't in command of the fleet, Admiral Sharpfield, a Chisholmian ignorant of the inner circle is.

2) From the textev of the battery commander on Claw Island, Thirsk has screw galleys, whose frontal armor has left rust marks from so much training at sea.

How many steam ironclads will it take to destroy Thirsk's fleet?

6? 8? 12?

Or will he be so intimidated he stays in Gorath Bay?

L
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Re: Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Jun 26, 2014 2:53 am

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Hi SYED,

Yes the weather could slow Ahlverez, but it should then slow any pursuit just as much, as Earl Grey Harbor often reminded Cayleb.

Ahlverez has ~48,000 men, 35K Dohlarans and 13K Desnari infantry; the 8K cavalry retreated to join Kaitswyrth.

They have some supplies because Ahlverez had prepared before Harless's last conference, and had managed to move ~200 miles, half the distance to Thesmar while DE was still concentrating on the AoJ [a 5day?] according to the textev in March 897.

Ahlverez's rear guard fought to the death to give the rest time to escape, so as previously suggested, the Desnari infantry may simply replace them in terms of consuming their rations.

That would require less than 27 wagons, though if Ahlverez still has 12,000 cavalry, they'd need more than twice as many just for fodder.

L


SYED wrote:Do we all believe that the retreating dohlar force will get back to their own lines?
They are deeply in need of supplies, but most of their men are gone. I guess total number of 56000 men or less. The thing is due to their size they will be forced to use the main roads, sure they could attempt cross country, but again they dont have supplies. Do they even know thesma is on the move so the closest supplies they believe are theren have been taken.
It is possibly for some of the men to get back, i doubt they are in the best shape and numbers will fall.
They might bdes marching faster than ever before, but they had an intact logistics system no matter how poor it was. While they must deal with poor weather.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:01 am

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Hi Drak,

Yup, totally agree.

Furthermore, would he be more likely to spring Thirsk's family than directly apologise? 8-)

That way Thirsk is grateful to him. :D

The local inquisition might not realise just how much his thinking regarding Thirsk may have changed before he gets custody. ;)

Feel free to disagree. :lol:

L


DrakBibliophile wrote:IMO if David Weber intended for Ahlvarez (and his forces) to be killed or captured, he would have done it in the last book.

IMO Ahlvarez will be a factor in the next book. Oh, I don't think the Inquisition will kill him.

n7axw wrote:**quote="SYED"**Do we all believe that the retreating dohlar force will get back to their own lines?
They are deeply in need of supplies, but most of their men are gone. I guess total number of 56000 men or less. The thing is due to their size they will be forced to use the main roads, sure they could attempt cross country, but again they dont have supplies. Do they even know thesma is on the move so the closest supplies they believe are theren have been taken.
It is possibly for some of the men to get back, i doubt they are in the best shape and numbers will fall.
They might bdes marching faster than ever before, but they had an intact logistics system no matter how poor it was. While they must deal with poor weather.


Interesting question. IIRC, Ahlvarez has his own force of 15000 Dohlarians, plus some 13,000 Desnairian calvary. He'd left another force at Thesmar who had competent leadership, Rychtar I believe, who retreated back toward Dohlar, and was met by reinforcements armed with St Klymans. The question will be if they can join up with Rychtar. Dunno how that will turn out. If they do make it back they might be able to regroup and be a force that Siddarmark and EOC would have to take the time to deal with. A question that interests me if if Ahlvarez finds himself trapped between Hanath and Eastshare, does he fight or surrender?

Don
**quote**
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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