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SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats

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Re: SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats
Post by lyonheart   » Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:52 am

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Hi CJK,

Victory or death are indeed the only options Clyntahn gives anyone, quite spur to Duchairn to get it right.

Given the 70+ millions of SR citizens who were shocked to find they were now heretics according to the inquisitor general, I 'd expect any doctrinal shifts to be very gradual, but the only textev from MTaT was that the new Archbishop of Siddarmark would welcome Maikel with pleasure, which might happen late in 897 or early 898.

He might come with Sharleyan, who wants to meet Nynian among other things, which could have interesting repercussions, as in acting in Cayleb's place as he goes off to Zion, thus demonstrating her co-equal role to all
had heard but won't believe it until they see it with their own eyes.

If Nimue came along, it'd be quite a one-two punch for women's equality, but that might have to wait for a state visit from Daivyn etc.

Getting back to this thread topic, if indeed Rhobair manages to offer something acceptable to the allies, but is understandably unacceptable to the Harchong, the temple land remnant or most of the rest of the mainland CoGA members without another war over the true succession of the CoGA, for a mortal replay of the War of the Fallen.

Which just might shake up more than a few people's previous assumptions about how easily they'd have picked the right side back then and perhaps then add a bit more tolerance to how they view other people.

Militarily, attacking the allies will also increasingly be seen as suicide as the allied rate of technological improvement continues to climb much more steeply than the CoGA and its associated nations.

Whether or not we see machine guns or tanks soon Charis already has the tools at hand if the 4" rifled guns can hit a target 2000 yards away with a 2 yard CEP.

Of Howard, only Harchong and Desnar could afford to make the new weapons, and at very low rates until Duchairn intervened in the case of Harchong.

Howard is going to remain a backwater until the thing in the temple's basement is dealt with, since the ICN will determine who on Haven can interact with Howard.

Regarding all the open hearth furnaces Brother Lynkyn is building, we also had Wyrshym's extended thoughts on the temple lands being a net coal importer, especially quality anthracite, so I'm not too worried about a future capability that may never get off the ground.

Practicality generally does trump faith in the impossible happening (such as your faith enabling you to fly unaided), except for the very devout, but they are a rather small minority that suffer painful lessons when they meet reality, like such examples of the children's crusade, or the various natives who expect their faith would stop the white man's bullets etc.

Southern Harchong according to Sharleyan is somewhat more interested in a less structured society with more room fore merchants and innovation, which could lead to interesting accommodations with the allies or at least the EoC, specifically how the ICN could keep Northern Harchong from interfering in Southern Harchong's internal affairs after the war, leading to all sorts of interesting permutations.

Time to end this.

L


[quote="CJK"]While Clyntahn is in charge or the Inquisition has a strong hold on power within the CoGA the options really ARE total victory or total destruction for one side or the other.

However once you start leaving the Clyntahn world behind things start opening up, for instance the fact that every Island nation left the CoGA with hardly any resistance at all is a nice indicator that faith in the CoGA at least is not strong at all. Charis has already made the difference between God and the CoGA clear, plus even the mainland is aware of the systematic abuse the clergy has made in power. As an aside pretty much every time a religion (Christianity especially) became too corrupt a new version was able to move in and take over as people became disillusioned. That process has already started in Safehold, especially as the Siddarmark Republic is NOT following the Church of Charis as their new Church, they will make their own variation likely as Reformists Something.

This will become MUCH more popular once people realize that the alternative for many mainland nations is to charge in with muskets, maybe flintlock smooth-bores against the full range of toys Charis currently has. Suicide IS forbidden in the writ after all and at this moment there are 2 nations able to build the weapons necessary to fight Charis; the Temple Lands and Dohlar. The border states, Harchong and Desnair specifically have all failed to build up the weaponry needed to fight Charis.

A good example here is King Zhames of Delfarahk and his wife, even after twice having Charis go in and wreck parts of his kingdom he wants NO part of the Jihad. Even his wife who is VERY devout does not consider the Jihad a good idea, or approve of the actions taken by the Inquisition. All indications from the text says Zhames will carry out every order Clyntahn sends and do his absolute best to stay out of the way of EITHER Charis or the CoGA. Which he probably can do because like many of the nations on the mainland Delfarahk cannot afford the army needed to fight Chairs and Duchairn and Magwair will see this very quickly.

Faith IMO comes second to the practicalities of waging war, even most die hard fanatics are not going to think that kicking the sleeping dragon whilst buck naked and no weapon is what the writ demands.[/quote]
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Re: SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats
Post by lizon   » Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:29 am

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Right now the Go4 will view these defeats as setbacks because they still have the Harchong army as well as Thirsk's fleet ready to play.

The tipping point will be when Thirsk's fleet is destroyed and the Harchong army is stopped or defeated will they really begin to worry. The fleet is the tipping point imo.

The reason I say this is because the fleet is something that was always in the back of the Go4's mind in that they had something that they could use to attack the EoC directly. It was their last offensive weapon in their arsenal. If you remove that weapon the Go4 will find themselves in a position where they will never be able to attack the EoC ever again. Even if Siddarmark is destroyed (which likely won't happen) they still won't be able to attack the EoC.

When the Army of Harchong is defeated, that will bring us to the Go4 actively considering ultimate defeat. From their pov they will see that their fleet is gone, they can no longer attack the EoC, and now their biggest card the Harchong Army is now routed and driven back into the Border States. The CoGA at this point won't be fighting to drive out the heretics from Siddarmark. They will be fighting to defend the Temple Lands from invasion by the Siddarmark Republic and the EoC.

They way I see things playing out is that with the initial defeat of the Harchong, Clyntahn will order the Inquisition to place military units behind Harchong forces and force them to continue fighting against the Allies. Eventually, somebody is going to say "No" to that propitiation and fight back against the Inquisition and the Go4. This will eventually lead to a full scale mutiny. If I were Merlin I would then move in and knock off most if not all of the Inquisition authorities in the rearguard units paying the way for the Harchong to begin retreating back to their homelands where they will begin an uprising of the general serf population.

With Howard cut off from supplying any kind of support to the CoGA, revolution in the Harchong Empire, and with the Siddarmark and Charis armies poised to begin a full scale invasion of the Border States the eventual defeat of the CoGA will be as obvious as the Sun in the sky.
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Re: SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats
Post by n7axw   » Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:45 pm

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What do the rest of you think of poor ole Zhames? He has always seemed a bit of a victim to me. He honors the churches command to close his ports and confiscate Charis' merchantmen. Insread, what he gets is an inquisition orchestrated massacre which in turn leads to the trashing of his port city and the destruction of his merchant marine. He gives Daivyn and Irys refuge, but Clyntahn decides to kill them Merlin shows up on his doorstep and slaughters a healthy percentage of his guard to get the kids out and then to add insult to injury blows up most of Zhames' house.

It seems to me that the poor guy can't win for losing...

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:35 am

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Zhames might do well to seek a treaty with Charis as soon as the ICN blows the RDN to driftwood. If Charis will protect Delfahrahk from South Harchong and Desnair, Zhames could begin trading his way out of his financial woes. He might prevail upon his Queen's cousins to lend him funds to rebuild his ports. Rumour has it their new inlaws are looking forward to a substantial increase in cash flows. Zhames might have to grovel and beg forgiveness first. Still, I doubt he would have turned Irys and Daivyn over if he had any choice.

I suspect that if the ICN threatens major port cities with a visit from KH VII and her sisters with Dreadnought or Rottweiler tagging along, neither Desnair nor Harchong will push their luck. So peel a mainland nation from the CoGA and make it stick. If Irys pulls that off, she secures her place in Corisande's political circles as a serious player in her own right.
EDIT: Grammar
n7axw wrote:What do the rest of you think of poor ole Zhames? He has always seemed a bit of a victim to me. He honors the churches command to close his ports and confiscate Charis' merchantmen. Insread, what he gets is an inquisition orchestrated massacre which in turn leads to the trashing of his port city and the destruction of his merchant marine. He gives Daivyn and Irys refuge, but Clyntahn decides to kill them Merlin shows up on his doorstep and slaughters a healthy percentage of his guard to get the kids out and then to add insult to injury blows up most of Zhames' house.

It seems to me that the poor guy can't win for losing...

Don
Last edited by PeterZ on Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats
Post by Alistair   » Mon Mar 24, 2014 4:17 am

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Interesting thought Peter...

Its not as if Desnair has a large army anymore to crush Zhames if they do move and the reformist sentiment is probably still making a creeping progress despite the best efforts of Clinton and Rayno ...

It is possible the Temple could see some local forest fires breaking out. Just as Narhanman predicted all those years ago.
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Re: SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:47 am

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Alistair wrote:Interesting thought Peter...

Its not as if Desnair has a large army anymore to crush Zhames if they do move and the reformist sentiment is probably still making a creeping progress despite the best efforts of Clinton and Rayno ...

It is possible the Temple could see some local forest fires breaking out. Just as Narhanman predicted all those years ago.


Desnair might have a large army and it is likely enough to defeat Zhames. I doubt it has a sufficiently large or well enough equipped army to fend off ICN coastal attacks. Desnair the City and Geyra are coastal cities exposed to ICN bombardment and ICN Marine raids.

I wonder if Delfarahk or Silkiah will turn coat first?
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Re: SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats
Post by Aethor   » Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:51 pm

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We shouldn't forget whatever it is that sleeps under the Temple and is scheduled to wake up in 19-ish years.
EoC must be in control of the Temple and all its underground hardware well before that happens.
If they aren't, and if what awakes there decides to fight them, the consequences would likely be worse than fighting the CoGA/Go4 to the bitter end now, conquering Zion and the Temple.
Merlin, Cayleb etc know that, so I don't think they will allow any negotiations until Zion is firmly in their hands.


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Re: SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Mar 24, 2014 1:19 pm

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Trouble is with the revelation of the Stone of Schueler the Inner Circle doesn't know if there is another mechanism to manually control the OBS. That mechanism might be used to call forth KEW strikes on an attacking army or navy appeoaching Zion. If that happens all of Safehold will know God is truly protecting the CoGA.

At that point is it better to ensure that innovation is spread as far as possible before the awakening or to risk the KEW strike and take Zion ASAP? A strike now would destroy the Reformation before Innovation as a mind set has truly been ingrained.

I would argue for the surer course and wait. Allow the CoGA to implement innovative meathods on its own before the Awakening. Should the acceptence of innovation be spread far enough, the Sleepers would have to destroy too much to push Safehold back to pre jihad levels.

If attacking Zion triggers a KEW strike or awakens the sleepers now, Merlin's cause is lost for generations and maybe forever.

Aethor wrote:We shouldn't forget whatever it is that sleeps under the Temple and is scheduled to wake up in 19-ish years.
EoC must be in control of the Temple and all its underground hardware well before that happens.
If they aren't, and if what awakes there decides to fight them, the consequences would likely be worse than fighting the CoGA/Go4 to the bitter end now, conquering Zion and the Temple.
Merlin, Cayleb etc know that, so I don't think they will allow any negotiations until Zion is firmly in their hands.


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Re: SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Mar 29, 2014 3:42 am

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Hi Lizon,

You have some good points but I'm not sure about some of your assumptions.

I don't think the Go4 has seriously considered Thirsk's fleet to be a truly offensive weapon for years since it was designed and built before explosive shells were perfected, NTM its 80 ships or less when they know the ICN has at least 200 in commission.

The Go4 knows it needs a fleet to get to Charis etc, yet they know Thirsk's is obsolete, but since they can't afford to build a replacement they're keeping it in service because Thirsk is plainly their best admiral so it's the best of what they've got left rather than any future plans to send it to Charis, Tarot, or Corisande etc.

That was one of the major reasons why the SoS was such a blunder, in that it diverted the CoGA from building a new fleet, to building and equipping a huge army, far bigger than they needed to invade and destroy Charis.

Essentially Clyntahn thinks it was a step forward, but Duchairn and Magwair know it was really two steps back, as does Trynair, but he may be too scared to admit it even to himself.

While Clyntahn would like to have inquisition units that could act as commissars or enforcers to shoot the soldiers when they don't fight the way he wants, he doesn't have enough for all the other things he needs them for, but since the IHA already has those in its military police units ("the emperor's spears"), they aren't necessary at the moment.

The IHA represents just over 5/8 of the Go4 armies, so its understandable if they see the current losses as only temporary setbacks, however I suspect Duchairn may encourage Magwair to have a fallback plan, just in case.

Theoretically, knocking off the enforcers whoever they are is a good idea, but that assumes whoever takes over is just as incompetent, which is hard to predict let alone ensure they stay that way.

Given the ~400,000 IHA cavalry contingent are basically controlled by the aristocrats and bureaucrats, killing all of them (or at most) will have to come before any serf marches home, increasing the unlikelihood of this scenario.

Even if it works as you say, and I've thought the same, it would take several months for them to get back to Harchong, ie well after winter begins again, even assuming foraging will supply all their needs, so finding shelter would be another distraction to going home.

So by the time they get there, the empire has had time to make many more rifles and cannon to defend itself, limiting the serf's weapon advantages.

I've posted elsewhere how the allies could compel the various IHA sub-armies to surrender before summer by capturing or destroying their supplies while avoiding major battles.

From the inner circle comments, I'm not sure sending the serfs back armed to the teeth is what they want to do, although they may be forced into it.

However holding them back makes a great bargaining chip, if there are ever negotiations, since the ICN could get them home before winter if necessary. ;)

Obviously the threat of letting the IHA serfs (or at least some of them) march back through the now defenseless Border States might quickly compel their surrender to avoid that fate, effectively extending the republic's borders westward without much fighting (and dying) by the RSA, something not to be overlooked by the Lord Protector. :D

So the Go4 could be discussing this unbelievable losing situation by early summer.

Will it precipitate Duchairn's coup attempt?

Waiting for the snippets is excruciating!

L


[quote="lizon"]Right now the Go4 will view these defeats as setbacks because they still have the Harchong army as well as Thirsk's fleet ready to play.

The tipping point will be when Thirsk's fleet is destroyed and the Harchong army is stopped or defeated will they really begin to worry. The fleet is the tipping point imo.

The reason I say this is because the fleet is something that was always in the back of the Go4's mind in that they had something that they could use to attack the EoC directly. It was their last offensive weapon in their arsenal. If you remove that weapon the Go4 will find themselves in a position where they will never be able to attack the EoC ever again. Even if Siddarmark is destroyed (which likely won't happen) they still won't be able to attack the EoC.

When the Army of Harchong is defeated, that will bring us to the Go4 actively considering ultimate defeat. From their pov they will see that their fleet is gone, they can no longer attack the EoC, and now their biggest card the Harchong Army is now routed and driven back into the Border States. The CoGA at this point won't be fighting to drive out the heretics from Siddarmark. They will be fighting to defend the Temple Lands from invasion by the Siddarmark Republic and the EoC.

They way I see things playing out is that with the initial defeat of the Harchong, Clyntahn will order the Inquisition to place military units behind Harchong forces and force them to continue fighting against the Allies. Eventually, somebody is going to say "No" to that propitiation and fight back against the Inquisition and the Go4. This will eventually lead to a full scale mutiny. If I were Merlin I would then move in and knock off most if not all of the Inquisition authorities in the rearguard units paying the way for the Harchong to begin retreating back to their homelands where they will begin an uprising of the general serf population.

With Howard cut off from supplying any kind of support to the CoGA, revolution in the Harchong Empire, and with the Siddarmark and Charis armies poised to begin a full scale invasion of the Border States the eventual defeat of the CoGA will be as obvious as the Sun in the sky.[/quote]
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Re: SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats
Post by lyonheart   » Sat Mar 29, 2014 3:58 am

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Hi Alistair,

I suspect the remainder of the IDA is still several times larger than the AoJ, still guarding the rest of its borders and keeping order.

Delferahk doesn't have much of an army so a large IDA isn't needed to take it out, if they ever felt like it; Delferahk's main deterrent being there's no profit for Desnar to conquer it.

Forest fires will indeed erupt, but internally not by the current nations' leadership.

L


Alistair wrote:Interesting thought Peter...

Its not as if Desnair has a large army anymore to crush Zhames if they do move and the reformist sentiment is probably still making a creeping progress despite the best efforts of Clinton and Rayno ...

It is possible the Temple could see some local forest fires breaking out. Just as Narhanman predicted all those years ago.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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