The Navy of God against Charis naval superiority

Castenea wrote:I would be careful about disregarding the influence of great power rivalry during the industrial revolution. In many ways the industrial revolution began as the Napoleonic Wars were ending, and while major wars were few for the next century, rivalries and threats of war were not. Major conflicts included the American Civil War, wars of German unification, and Crimean War.

Before that even. More British troops were deployed in England against the Luddites than were ever deployed in the Iberian Peninsula against the French troops.

Dilandu wrote:P.S. And after all, could Merlin at least do SOMETHING for another side to support there is a commitment to innovations? The Brennan-type torpedo wouldn't be able to really hit the Charisian operations, but it would demonstrate a lot to the other side engineers!

Wow, just... wow... Why in the name of god would Merlin actually help those people? Not going out and assassinating the CoGA innovators, (discarding the option when Howysmyn brought it up) is one thing. The very notion that he would introduce something to help kill the people he thinks of as his own is the most nonsensical idea I have seen since the last time I read a Lord Skimper thread. And even then this probably tops that. Why on earth would he EVER help them?! Yes he wants to push the innovation thing, but Charis winning the war would accomplish that nicely. Thinking that he would deliberately prolonging it and increasing the body count, in the enemies favor, to accomplish what he is already accomplishing, is chewing on the furniture madness.




Also as part of this thread. I agree that Charis needs more brown water Monitor Ironclads, then blue armored cruisers (which is essentially what the KHs are). However that is exactly why production of the KHs was not only cut from 12 to 6, but has been delayed repeatedly. Meanwhile there are the 4 Delthak class ships on top of what, 28 River class monitor gunboats being built? Yes they are important, that cruising range and speed (they can do what 22 knots?) is going to be earth shattering by itself. However they are overkill, with the Rottweiler class being good enough for now, while monitors for fighting in Siddimark are damn well necessary today. Don't forget they started the KHs before the war in Siddimark ever started, if they knew that was coming the things might have been delayed even further. These ships have been in development for what... 3 books now? I know the ideas behind the construction of them have been popping up from book 1 but still.

Regardless, sending said monitors to places like Gorath may be a bit of a challenge, don't forget what happened to USS Monitor, or for that matter the Duke of Malikai in Off Armageddon Reef. Yes I know there are individual cases of them crossing the Atlantic, but we can all acknowledge that was normal operating procedure for them.

Also for attacking coastal cities I fail to see how even a screw galley (man-powered at that) could outmaneuver a KH. Those things are going to be frigging nimble even as big as they are, and the draft thing won't really be an issue pounding any of the major targets. I mean sure, I guess going up a river is probably not in the cards but who cares, those things are meant for naval dominance.

I agree that there were some great power struggles going on at that time. But then, there always are. Nor will I deny that great power rivalry had its impact.

But in the main, I stand by my post. The primary applications seem to have been commercial, where you are talking about steam engines used in mines or powering textile mills, etc. The first railroad was used for hauling coal from the mines to factories in Liverpool. It was a matter of individual inventers coming up with ideas, patenting them and selling them and finding their way into usage by business. This is true whether you are talking about the direct use of steam, or the cotton gin, or any number of other things you could name.

While much of this did find its way into military application, it was more a case of the military coming along and finding application for things already invented rather than being the driver.

By way of contrast, much of the innovation during the cold war was government driven with specific goals in mind. The race to put a man on the moon, for example, had all sorts of civilian spin offs such as computers, hand calculators, medical applications, etc.

I see Safehold at the beginning of the industrial revolution which is well under way in Charis. Much of that is government driven to the survival needs of the war. But when the war is over, I think that the commercial takes over as the move from a muscle powered to a steam powered society gains momentum. Eventually combustion power will also come into play as Charis' penchant for more efficient ways of doing things spreads. All the way from farm tractors to freighters will appear as more and more applications are found for power that doesn't have to be near a stream.

If I'm judging this right, its going to be an enormously creative time...

Don

IMO stagnation isn't going to happen after the current war end especially if the main Safehold Church "looses" its power to prevent innovation.

Stagnation happens mainly when somebody has the power to prevent change over a wide area.

Imperial China stagnated because the "Powers That Be" didn't like change and prevented it. China got away with doing so for a long time because its neighbors were "barbarians" that could not afford to innovate and could get "more advanced" stuff from China.

Ancient Egypt had a period of great stagnation because it was surrounded by desert areas (prevent advances from coming there) and its leadership also didn't like change.

Europe, on the other hand, had no political unity which meant that nobody had the power to prevent chance. Europe also had a common language for the educated class, Latin, and thus ideas could spread throughout Europe.

Safehold is going to be closer to Europe than China as with the loss of power by the main Church nobody has the power to prevent innovation. While it is possible (by not likely) that Charis may slow down regarding innovation, other parts of Safehold may begin innovating and Charis would likely be "forced" to continue innovation. I suspect that the Republic may take what it has been given by Charis and begin innovation on its own. We have seen signs that other regions of Safehold are beginning to think in terms of innovation.

Of course, Merlin will still be around to "encourage" innovation.

Re Post War Development

Housemynn has to do something with all that money and heavy industrial capacity once the military orders scale back. Can anyone say 'railway'? Even pre-war Charis made the best agricultural machinery on Safehold, with assembly lines even more so. Tractors, diggers for road-making, dredgers for canals, barges, every manufactory you can think of, are all candidates for steam power. NTM pneumatic power tools and assembly lines for the latter. Slowdown, what slowdown?

You remember that all the innovators in Charis are busily patenting their inventions? In a well designed patent system, which I'm sure Charis has (the US not so much), you have to specify exactly what your device does and precisely how it does it to get a patent granted. All that stuff is then a matter of public record. Post-war I'm sure all sorts of people will be making research trips to the Charisian patent office. I would not be at all surprised if the most important patents in the most important industries turned out to be owned by people who were willing to license them to anybody for a pittance. I would also not be surprised if 'certain countries' refused to accept the validity of Charisian patents, after diligently studying them of course.

If the Inquisition still exists, I think there will be remarkably few prosecutions for breach of the Proscriptions with Father, excuse me, Vicar Paityr as Grand Inquisitor! And possibly even a few general dispensations. (Assuming little things like the OBS and the Beast in the Basement get taken care of.)

Through suitably obscure intermediaries, the House of Armahk will be looking for Safehold wide investment opportunities for its little windfall on Silverlode. No, I don't think there is much chance of stagnation if we manage to get anything resembling peace.

DrakBibliophile wrote:IMO stagnation isn't going to happen after the current war end especially if the main Safehold Church "looses" its power to prevent innovation.

Stagnation happens mainly when somebody has the power to prevent change over a wide area.

D

Stagnation happens anytime, and anywhere the government creates extractive economic institutions.

In 1623, the English Parliament legislated the Statute of Monopolies. Prior to that the king could grant "letter patent" to whomever he wanted. The legislation granted property rights for ideas, and the right to use the idea in business.

Another common restriction was royal charters. These were extensively used in South America. In fact, the Spanish went even further, not only was the charter required to do business, the inhabitants were required to make minimum purchases.

South America is still messed up today, because every economic enterprise requires licenses, and approvals, and the bureaucrats that administer these believe that they have a right to bribes for their cooperation.

Sometimes extractive economic institutions are a matter of degree. Consider that Texas from 2008 to 2012 created as many jobs as the rest of the U.S. The difference is that Texas worked really hard to minimize the impact of regulation on business. Go online, and check how long it takes to get all of the permits required for drilling an oil well in Texas verses California. Texas is in the same world as California, but that hasn't measurably affected California's competitiveness.

There are quite a few indexes that measure the economic freedom of various nations. A general rule of thumb is that nations with greater freedom will grow faster than those with less. The only exception seems to be nations with wealth based on basic resources, and their growth depends on price level of their commodities.

JRM

No argument with "how" stagnation can happen but I'm comment on the idea that stagnation would happen everywhere on Safehold.

While some in Charis may "want to slow down innovation", Cayleb isn't going to support any official government efforts to slow down innovation. Note, Cayleb also has funds available to support innovations that his government doesn't want to support.

Siddarmark likely doesn't want Charis to be the "ending edge" of innovation so would likely support innovation.

After being "clubbed" by Charisian innovations, there may be more of a push to support innovation in some of Charis's former enemies.

JRM wrote:

DrakBibliophile wrote:IMO stagnation isn't going to happen after the current war end especially if the main Safehold Church "looses" its power to prevent innovation.

Stagnation happens mainly when somebody has the power to prevent change over a wide area.

D

Stagnation happens anytime, and anywhere the government creates extractive economic institutions.

In 1623, the English Parliament legislated the Statute of Monopolies. Prior to that the king could grant "letter patent" to whomever he wanted. The legislation granted property rights for ideas, and the right to use the idea in business.

Another common restriction was royal charters. These were extensively used in South America. In fact, the Spanish went even further, not only was the charter required to do business, the inhabitants were required to make minimum purchases.

South America is still messed up today, because every economic enterprise requires licenses, and approvals, and the bureaucrats that administer these believe that they have a right to bribes for their cooperation.

Sometimes extractive economic institutions are a matter of degree. Consider that Texas from 2008 to 2012 created as many jobs as the rest of the U.S. The difference is that Texas worked really hard to minimize the impact of regulation on business. Go online, and check how long it takes to get all of the permits required for drilling an oil well in Texas verses California. Texas is in the same world as California, but that hasn't measurably affected California's competitiveness.

There are quite a few indexes that measure the economic freedom of various nations. A general rule of thumb is that nations with greater freedom will grow faster than those with less. The only exception seems to be nations with wealth based on basic resources, and their growth depends on price level of their commodities.

JRM

South America is still messed up today, because every economic enterprise requires licenses, and approvals, and the bureaucrats that administer these believe that they have a right to bribes for their cooperation.

Well, talking about the South America, there was two (even three) unsucsessfull attempt to break the system.

1) The Peru-Bolivian Confederacy in 1836-1839. If they hadn't lost the war with Chile, they may be a significant pacific power (at least by the South American standarts)

2) The Paraguay before the Triple Alliance war. After all, Lopez actually made a industrialisation in almost completely isolation? and fought against two most powerfull South American countries, supported by mighty Britain!

3) The Pacific war of Peru and Bolivia against Chile.

Historically, most innovation has occurred in the private sector, where removing government and social roadblocks are more important than passive or active government support. In our world, we can see the difference between New York and Pennsylvania on fracking. Money is flowing into Pennsylvania, while upstate New York continues to hurt.

MWW acknowledges this in the MT&T, May 896, Chapter 13. There is a lengthy discussion about Chisholm's tariff policies, and the problems that the local aristocracy policies are to general economic growth. He addresses the problem of guilds in LAMA, September, Chapter 1. He introduces the head of the Gunmakers Guild, with the acknowledgement that guild members will have to transition to expert supervisors in the new manufactories. What is implicit is that innovation will threaten local government, guilds and existing businesses. All of these groups will try to place barriers in the way of innovation. All of these groups will support captive regulation. Existing bureaucracies will judge their performance on the regulations that they create.

While Charis appears to be an open economy, the empire will have a lot of work to do to create the same opportunity in the new parts of the empire. The degree of autonomy that the empire granted makes the problem harder.

Siddarmark has the same potential problems. Greyghor Stohnar would be wise to try to bind removing barriers with recovery help.

I don't see the rest of Safehold changing their basic economy, and they will have the same problems that the Russians had. You can command major changes in the economy, but when staying competitive requires wide ranging constant innovation, command economies find that they can't plan and/or motivate the little changes that are required.

JRM

DrakBibliophile wrote:No argument with "how" stagnation can happen but I'm comment on the idea that stagnation would happen everywhere on Safehold.

While some in Charis may "want to slow down innovation", Cayleb isn't going to support any official government efforts to slow down innovation. Note, Cayleb also has funds available to support innovations that his government doesn't want to support.

Siddarmark likely doesn't want Charis to be the "ending edge" of innovation so would likely support innovation.

After being "clubbed" by Charisian innovations, there may be more of a push to support innovation in some of Charis's former enemies.

JRM wrote:Historically, most innovation has occurred in the private sector, where removing government and social roadblocks are more important than passive or active government support. In our world, we can see the difference between New York and Pennsylvania on fracking. Money is flowing into Pennsylvania, while upstate New York continues to hurt.

For the small scale innovations and applied research, it's true. But for fundamental research, the main power was - at least in XX century - almost always the goverment.

For example: the rocketry. What use have a privat sector for rockets? Thei civilian application was... almos nonexistent until the dawn of space age. And to the space age, the rocketry reached only through the govermen interest.

The space age was born not from some sort of "private innovations"; there simply was not enought profits in the near terms to attract investors to rocketry. Their only customers was military. And even military didn't always be enthusiastic about them. The "Convair" has all principal components of SM-65 "Atlas" in 1948th HIROC. The USAF simply wasn't interested in proposed ICBM, that may be avaliable in 1954-1955. They have a lot of bombers, they have a lot of airbases near USSR, and they were afraid of the INTERNAL competition with army and navy about the control over the ballistic missiles.

The USSR started the Space Age simply because he haven't any other solution. They haven't any bases near the US territory. The long-range bombers and intercontinental cruiser missiles were too vunerable for the CONAD air defense systems. They clearly understand, that the ballistic missiles is their only solution, and soviet goverment concentrated all avaliable resources on the rocket programs.

So the internal competitions is a good thing; but the external one - the arm race, to be exact - is a great stimul for improvements, too.