PeterZ wrote:Harchong has an interest in expansion. South Harchong has to see the resources and captive market potential of Desnair. North Harchong sees more land to distribute to younger sons of their aristocracy. With the current military disparity between Desnair and Harchong, I can see Northern aristos drooling over a "short, victorious war". I can see the bureaucrats killing two birds by sending the Mighty Host to do the conquering. I can see the Norther clergy having more than a residual animus against Desnair for weaseling out of the jihad. I can see Rainbow Waters using the MH as a way to keep his troops alive. If they disband and return home, they are dead. Those common troopers' only hope is to find a long term reason not to disband that satisfies all the factions.
Desnair will pay anything for weapons. Dohlar and the CoGA will see a golden opportunity to jump start their economy, just like Japan got a boost supplying vehicles to the UN in the Korean War. Fighting a war against a more industrial foe is a very powerful incentive for Desnair to industrialize. Kohlman and Jaras are perfect places to begin. Charis, Siddermark and Silkiah will gladly facilitate accommodation with those regions.
So, it is very possible that Harchong takes digestible segments of Desnair at regular interval over the next two decades. It is also possible that Kohlman and Jaras becomes an increasing more influential as well as secure part of Desnair over the next two decades. Those two outcome could very easily spark hostility within the Desnari court. Enough hostility to cause a civil war.
All this is rampant speculation. However, it does follow from how the jihad ended and the CoGA's loss of ability to forcibly compel other secular nations into any sort of international policy. I am sure there are other directions for the story to go. My speculation is but one.
I've been looking over the map of Safehold and Desnair doesn't share a border with either North or South Harchong. Between South Harchong and Desnair lays Shwei Bay, which means any direct Harchongian invasion of Desnair would still depend upon having sea power, something neither had at the end of the Jihad. Nor should you assume that Siddarmark, Silkiah or Dohlar would so eagerly assist Harchong or Desnair in any invasions. They all have to worry that if one falls to the other, they would eventually have to worry about the winner. Remember that they don't know about the potential return of the archangels so they are all pursuing limited self interest. Moreover, if God and the Archangels did not intervene during the Jihad to stop Charis, why would he or they intervene now (again, they know nothing of the Key of Schueler)?
You should also remember that Harchong and the Church would need to find a solution for Rainbow Waters' troops fairly quickly. They can't wait a few years until things settle and the economy recovers in order to launch those troops on some misbegotten foreign adventure. They would still need to pay those troops' salaries while they remained in service. And if they aren't in active service and are not found real work in the Temple Lands, then they are free to go wherever they wish. Most would not wish to be separated from the families permanently and it would be hard to prevent 3 million or so men from returning back home. But they definitely can't just keep them in the Temple Lands. Idle troops can cause a lot of trouble, especially if they aren't being paid.
So, as has been implied throughout the series, the issue of slavery and serfdom is likely to become the main issue in the post-Jihad recovery period. Many serfs who joined the Mighty Host might have joined in or to be freed from their indenture. The same would apply to Desnairian slaves and the "bound" peasantry of the Temple Lands. Charis and Siddarmark are likely to continue to champion "free labor", especially since it favors their economy. They are also likely to offer asylum to any escaped slaves and serfs that come their way and actively abet the formation of underground railroads for slaves and serfs. So if Charis is willing to offer preferential trading and economic terms to any duchy or barony that is willing to abolish these institutions, and those regions' economies flourish relative to slave holding regions, that's when you'll see civil war. And yes, I too am only guessing at the moment.