HFQ Official Snippet #16

isaac_newton wrote:
Makes you blink to think that Alvahez would have had 2-3 days on horse just to catch up with his infantry!

I suppose the one benefit that it offers the Dohlarens - lots & lots of space to 'get lost' in, and to try and sneak by Hanth. Depends upon how effective his[H's] scouts are, and what hints are handed in his direction by certain other parties...

I don't think we have had explicit reference to it on land, but you would think that whatever OWL is using as weather satellites would have the resolution to detect anything the size of an army on the move, outside of the forest, certainly. So, yes, whether Ahlvarez sneaks past is more a matter of (Charisian) policy than luck.

Randomiser wrote:

isaac_newton wrote:
Makes you blink to think that Alvahez would have had 2-3 days on horse just to catch up with his infantry!

I suppose the one benefit that it offers the Dohlarens - lots & lots of space to 'get lost' in, and to try and sneak by Hanth. Depends upon how effective his[H's] scouts are, and what hints are handed in his direction by certain other parties...

I don't think we have had explicit reference to it on land, but you would think that whatever OWL is using as weather satellites would have the resolution to detect anything the size of an army on the move, outside of the forest, certainly. So, yes, whether Ahlvarez sneaks past is more a matter of (Charisian) policy than luck.

Undoubtedly use snarcs. In a way the story would be more interesting if Ahlverez managed to catch a small part of Hanth's army by surprise, break through and get back to Dohlar.

Don

Allow me to stick an oar in here.
1. Using the LAMA map, it's a little under 400 straight-line miles from the southern edge of the Forest to the Seridahn. Which coincidently is just north of Thesmar which might not be the best place to try to cross the river.
2. It's a little under 500 miles if he goes through Cheryk, From Cheryk he has two roads to the river, to Somyr and to Yairdyn which presumably have bridges or established ferries.
3. Hanth apparently is somewhere up towards Evertyn on the west bank of the river and presumably is moving supplies up the river which will be patrolled and defended.
4. We don't know how much Hanth knows other than a honking big Army went west to the retake Ft Tairys.
5. We don't know how much Ahlverez knows about Hanth's activities.
I'm not optimistic Ahlverez is going to get his army back to Dohlar because he's got that big, heavily trafficked and patrolled river to cross.
It's not likely A will be able to sneak up on Hanth because of the supply line patrols.
It's highly unlikely, IMHO, A is carrying bridging material for his engineers to put a bridge across the river.
There may be bridges at the Somyr-Cheryk rd crossing and at Yairdyn. The bridges will be guarded by relatively small entrenched forces which will have to be removed before A can move his troops across across the bridges. Any attempts to take the bridges by assaults will be costly and time-consuming which will allow Hanth to move against him.
So, unless A has come across a large deposit of handwavium it doesn't look like he's gonna get his men across that river.

EdThomas wrote:Allow me to stick an oar in here.
1. Using the LAMA map, it's a little under 400 straight-line miles from the southern edge of the Forest to the Seridahn. Which coincidently is just north of Thesmar which might not be the best place to try to cross the river.
2. It's a little under 500 miles if he goes through Cheryk, From Cheryk he has two roads to the river, to Somyr and to Yairdyn which presumably have bridges or established ferries.
3. Hanth apparently is somewhere up towards Evertyn on the west bank of the river and presumably is moving supplies up the river which will be patrolled and defended.
4. We don't know how much Hanth knows other than a honking big Army went west to the retake Ft Tairys.
5. We don't know how much Ahlverez knows about Hanth's activities.
I'm not optimistic Ahlverez is going to get his army back to Dohlar because he's got that big, heavily trafficked and patrolled river to cross.
It's not likely A will be able to sneak up on Hanth because of the supply line patrols.
It's highly unlikely, IMHO, A is carrying bridging material for his engineers to put a bridge across the river.
There may be bridges at the Somyr-Cheryk rd crossing and at Yairdyn. The bridges will be guarded by relatively small entrenched forces which will have to be removed before A can move his troops across across the bridges. Any attempts to take the bridges by assaults will be costly and time-consuming which will allow Hanth to move against him.
So, unless A has come across a large deposit of handwavium it doesn't look like he's gonna get his men across that river.

Ahlvarez certainly doesn't have his problems to look for. But maybe things aren't so black for him as you paint. Just to play devil's advocate, you understand.

He has an army of about 35,000. That takes a fair while to get over a river, but it also means you need a pretty large force to tangle with him. Maybe it gives him enough force to take the bridge on the Cheryk to Somyr road pretty quickly and hold it for long enough to get across. You could see it if most of Hanth's mobile forces are up near Evrytyn so it would take him a while to get back and the 2nd rank forces in Thesmar find they can't sally in enough strength without putting the town in danger

OR There is a whole forest of bridging material just waiting to be cut down outside Cheryk. Hanth can't be strong enough to ward off a 35K man army at every point along the river from Thesmar to Yairdyn while still focusing on attacking Evrytyn in order to destroy the Dohlaran bridgehead and supply route into South March. If Ahlvarez can find a nice flat plain without large pre-built defences where he can manoeuvre, and cross the river there ....

OR If Ahlvarez is up to a long hike, maybe he can go around north via the Fort Sheldon to Alykberg Road. That has the advantage that he isn't threatening Hanth's supply line so it might be decided it was strategically more valuable to concentrate on Evrytyn than on him.

Of course, Ahlvarez might consider it his duty to threaten said supply line so that he tries one of the first two, which might turn into quite a fight on the right terrain.

I could see RFC being able to put up a reasonable case for quite a few options.

EdThomas wrote:

4. We don't know how much Hanth knows other than a honking big Army went west to the retake Ft Tairys.

I'm working from memory here, so please forgive me if I make even more mistakes than usual.

I'm going to assume that you meant east, rather than west, since Ft. Tairys is east-northeast of Thesmar.

I believe that Hanth has sources of information of which we are not aware. He certainly broke out of Thesmar at an ideal time. That suggests that he either has sources of information, an excellent sense of military timing, or the luck of the...well people who have excellent luck. His enemies concluded that he should have good information predicated on Charis's control of the seas. It wouldn't take much for someone to travel south Ft. Sandfish (or to Ft. Darymahn) to give information to someone on a galleon, and for that information to travel from there to Thesmar.

~Tonto

I am sure that if Hanth is in danger Merlin or better yet Nimue would pay him a visit in order to alert him.

Tonto Silerheels wrote:EdThomas wrote:

4. We don't know how much Hanth knows other than a honking big Army went west to the retake Ft Tairys.

I'm working from memory here, so please forgive me if I make even more mistakes than usual.

I'm going to assume that you meant east, rather than west, since Ft. Tairys is east-northeast of Thesmar.

I believe that Hanth has sources of information of which we are not aware. He certainly broke out of Thesmar at an ideal time. That suggests that he either has sources of information, an excellent sense of military timing, or the luck of the...well people who have excellent luck. His enemies concluded that he should have good information predicated on Charis's control of the seas. It wouldn't take much for someone to travel south Ft. Sandfish (or to Ft. Darymahn) to give information to someone on a galleon, and for that information to travel from there to Thesmar.

~Tonto

IIRC, both Eastshare and Hanth are in semaphore communication with the capital. It would be surprising indeed if summary copies of Eastshare's reports hadn't found their way into Hanth's hands via perfectly normal means.

fallsfromtrees wrote:

Tonto Silerheels wrote:EdThomas wrote:

4. We don't know how much Hanth knows other than a honking big Army went west to the retake Ft Tairys.

I'm working from memory here, so please forgive me if I make even more mistakes than usual.

I'm going to assume that you meant east, rather than west, since Ft. Tairys is east-northeast of Thesmar.

I believe that Hanth has sources of information of which we are not aware. He certainly broke out of Thesmar at an ideal time. That suggests that he either has sources of information, an excellent sense of military timing, or the luck of the...well people who have excellent luck. His enemies concluded that he should have good information predicated on Charis's control of the seas. It wouldn't take much for someone to travel south Ft. Sandfish (or to Ft. Darymahn) to give information to someone on a galleon, and for that information to travel from there to Thesmar.

~Tonto

IIRC, both Eastshare and Hanth are in semaphore communication with the capital. It would be surprising indeed if summary copies of Eastshare's reports hadn't found their way into Hanth's hands via perfectly normal means.

Ahlvarez's best chance for survival is to have the luck or the wit to be where Hanth ain't. Hanth can't be everywhere and it could happen that even with the best info, he would be too badly out of position to respond to Ahlverz, especially when Rychter is the more dangerous opponent.

Don

XofDallas wrote:

dwileye13 wrote:When Alvahrez is at the bottom of the Kyplyngyr and turns West he is closing on half way, Eastshare should be able to flank him by heading straight throough the Forest on the High Road . The Other ICA Forces that took Roymark and Malyktyn are also well placed to slow him down. Forces from Thesmar and Hanth should be able to catch him in the Open. Will he fight or will he save his men?

OR is he fast enough to slip through to Dohlar? I do not hold that he is starving or lacks supplies. Alvahrez was afraid he would have to support the Desnairians but didn't. He also had good logistical discipline and got away with his entire supply train.

Things might be tough but he is not starving or short of Arms and ammo.

While he may not be immediately starving or short of supply, anything he expends can't be replaced, save for fodder and (possibly) food. Problem is, he's cornered, and with limited options, none of which are good ones - so he will have to pursue the one that is least palatable with some urgency - or find an option we haven't thought of.

With perfect information (which he does not have), he might be able to force his way through a weak area in Hanth's forces stretching from Thesmar to wherever they extend (Evrytyn?). He'll have to evade or outrun pursuing or flanking forces as well.

If he had the boats, or access to them, he could attempt a Dunkirk from the peninsula east of Fort Sandfish, but he has neither. It's also possible he could try the marshes. The only reason I say this is because of the pages in LAMA that discussed artillery emplacements there.

Just remember, a cornered animal is the most dangerous kind of animal. We'll see.

Why would he be that stupid and totally brain dead. Alvahrez has several problems.

1) No control or contested control of the sea.

forgot about the ICN didn't you, the ICN would act like a Kraken and a Doomwhale. if they got the slightest hint of it.

2) No navy to cover the evacuating ships or do some evacuating themselves.

3) No merchant ships to do the evacuating

saber964 wrote:

XofDallas wrote:
While he may not be immediately starving or short of supply, anything he expends can't be replaced, save for fodder and (possibly) food. Problem is, he's cornered, and with limited options, none of which are good ones - so he will have to pursue the one that is least palatable with some urgency - or find an option we haven't thought of.

With perfect information (which he does not have), he might be able to force his way through a weak area in Hanth's forces stretching from Thesmar to wherever they extend (Evrytyn?). He'll have to evade or outrun pursuing or flanking forces as well.

If he had the boats, or access to them, he could attempt a Dunkirk from the peninsula east of Fort Sandfish, but he has neither. It's also possible he could try the marshes. The only reason I say this is because of the pages in LAMA that discussed artillery emplacements there.

Just remember, a cornered animal is the most dangerous kind of animal. We'll see.

Why would he be that stupid and totally brain dead. Alvahrez has several problems.

1) No control or contested control of the sea.

forgot about the ICN didn't you, the ICN would act like a Kraken and a Doomwhale. if they got the slightest hint of it.

2) No navy to cover the evacuating ships or do some evacuating themselves.

3) No merchant ships to do the evacuating

Uh... yah. That's kind of what I said ("but he has neither [boats nor access to them]"). It was an exercise in brainstorming options and then knocking them down.

Ahlverez' most probable course will be to get his troops to the Seridahn River, and hope to force his way across at a thinly defended point, before any reaction force can get there that's of sufficient size to prevent the crossing. He can do it if Hanth is poorly informed of Ahlverez' whereabouts or has insufficient troops to keep both Rychtyr and Ahlverez at bay. The former is unlikely because I can imagine no scenario that wouldn't have a seijin whispering in Hanth's ear. The latter? Not sure at this point.

In addition, would either Earl High Mount or Eastshare be sending troops in pursuit, or to intercept? Not sure of that either, but but it's definitely a possibility. That's what makes this so much fun.