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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18 | |
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by lyonheart » Tue Feb 10, 2015 6:52 am | |
lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi McGuiness,
May I clarify a few things? First, the 'final' major ICA force [50,000+ men] hasn't been seen since it left Port Royal at the end of September 896 [chapter 10], and neither BGV, ie Baron Green Valley, or any other inner circle member who knows where they are, has wondered about them for our benefit; so they could be waiting for the opportunity to take the Salthar canal or the north end of North Watch Province above the Gulf of Jahras to block the isthmus, or reinforce Hanth, or some other place where its still warm and campaigning is possible. Secondly, Earl High Mount doesn't need to go to Glacierheart, because General Symkyn is already there with 75,000 men, and Kaitswyrth has, as far as we know, only 9-10,000 rifles for his 60-70,000 survivors, since any and all replacement rifles from the textev went to the Harchong MHoGatA, so Symkyn doesn't need help to crush Kaitswyrth, though he might need some help stopping the MHoGatA sub army probably replacing him. Given Hanth has 20,000 men at most after leaving the Thesmar garrison under Fyguera, he needs some reinforcements, but we don't know the size of Rychtyr's force before he was reinforced according to the last data in LaMA. Was it only 20 or 30,000 to start with? Attacking rifle equipped enemies in entrenched positions without artillery support etc, seems to be very very low on the ICA's recommended and preferred tactical solutions list; Cayleb among others is quite confident Hanth won't do anything stupid, so should we. I doubt ~20,000 men could besiege a potentially larger force without their mental cooperation, as in subconsciously already defeated, thinking they're already defeated. I suspect Fort Tairys can be handled a brigade or two of the RSA's rifled units already with DE, while DE heads west with EHM, perhaps to cross the Seridahn river above and below Everytyn, forcing Rychtyr to retreat regardless what he's armed with. To be a player in Gorath as much as I suspect, Ahlverez has to escape with most of his army, so crossing the Seridahn not to far from Thesmar still seems the most likely. The new CoGA rifles are more flexibly useful than the previous flintlocks, but the ICA's huge artillery and mortar advantage, especially if new explosive fillings are coming into use that have several times the power of gunpowder, make them far from an equalizer as some imply. I suggested month's ago and Thirsk's snippetted comments to his officers seems to confirm threatening Rychtyr's supply canal line back to Dohlar preempts the need for any such battle, although we have yet to have a meeting engagement, or one out in the open, which I doubt would go well for the RDA under any circumstances. Even if Ahlverez with his ~47,000 men met up with Rychtyr, I doubt they'd have more than Hanth and EHM's ~77,000 men [leaving DE free to operate elsewhere, ie penetrate far further into Dohlar], NTM fighting on even terms with the ICA is a guaranteed great way to lose. Taking Dairnyth as quickly as possible by EHM would prevent the MHoGatA from being able to advance logistically directly east from the Border States, a notable goal, NTM cutting off Dohlar and everything south from the temple [ie all of Howard]; something that might make Dohlar more compliant, or at least willing to admit its beaten when the time comes. Since the soonest the KH VII's will reach the Bay of Bess etc is 6 month's from now, why wait? Because taking the Salthar-Silk Town canal can been done this spring as I've detailed many times. Thirsk's fleet is going suffer considerable manpower shortages as he pointed out, so don't expect him to go seeking a major sea battle when he knows there are at least two armored ships to contend with already. Regarding Silkiah, the then 500 rifles per month was noted as only the beginning of rapidly increasing production last fall, hardly their upper limit by any means, because they were starting from a demilitarized state of exactly zero weapons capacity, which given their sympathy with Siddarmark and Charis, the inquisition watched carefully; yet they had already surpassed Desnar! Rather than denigrate their accomplishment, wonder what it might be if fully unleashed by the alliance. L [quote="McGuiness"]*quote="isaac_newton"*[quote="n7axw"]Since we now know that Hanth has been put to the back of the line for the new toys, I wonder what will happen when he gets to Evyrtyn. Will he slip around and cut off the canal behind Rychtyr and lay siege to the place? Much of the gear they have sent him would seem suited to defensive siege lines. At Evyrtyn Hanth will face the St Klymans in significant numbers for the first time. How will that change his tactics? Also, it has been noted here that Hanth is short of manpower. Presuming that to be true, will DE or EHM reinforce him? Finally, we know from [b]LAMA that there were still some TL militia in the Ft. Darymahn area... I wonder who is cleaning them out now[/b] that the balance has been tipped against them by Hanth's success in ejecting the Dohlarans from the Thesmar area and the destruction of thr Army of Shiloh. This snippet rounds out the picture somewhat...but still lots to speculate about. Don*quote*Hi Don I remember seeing this recently in BCG's second to last 'thoughts' from Allyntyn [section VI of November 896]*, when he is thinking over the deployment of the final echelon of Charisian troops... [quote]'Two more independently deployed mounted brigades where being sent south from the capital,where they would sson be teaching the TL guerrillas in the triangle of Southmarch lands between Southguard and the Taigyn river...'[/quote][/quote]If those brigades were actually sent, since they'd arrive about the time DE sallied out of Fort Tairys and mopped up the AoS, they free him to march to Thesmar to reinforce Hanth and drive the Dohlarans completely out of Siddarmark. (And they'll kill some TLs who [i]really [/i]need killlin'!) I'm sure a few galleons will be sent to smash Fort Darymahn to rubble (again) so the TLs have no place to hide. That would open the Taigyn river as a route to supply Fort Tairys and beyond, which is certainly worthwhile. DE is in position to intercept and destroy Ahlverez, which would be a [i]very [/i]good thing. Removing the enemy's most competent and experienced general (even if he ends up as a POW) may be crucial in defeating Dohlar. Let's not forget that the forces being rushed to Evrytyn have the new breech loading rifles, the church's first hand grenades based on the EoC's model, plus the church's first rifled artillery. Cracking that nut isn't going to be easy, especially if Ahlverez manages to bring his 35,000 troops inside. This would be the most even battle fought between the EoC and the CoGA since the final clash of the galleys at the end of OAR. Of course if the [i]Delthak [/i]can get within eight miles of Evrytyn, it might have just a [i]wee [/i]bit to say about the outcome! Hanth probably has the forces to lay siege to Evrytyn and to cut the locks behind it, but he doesn't have the forces to besiege it indefinitely, since the roads on either side of the canal are almost as good as high roads for moving troops and supplies, and he can't leave a blocking force because it could be easily encircled and destroyed. The same goes for his forces at Evrytyn. He [i]needs [/i]DE in order to drive Dohlar back. Looking at the strategic map, I can't think of anywhere that DE is needed more than to aid Hanth. Despite the sizable losses HM took in the Battle of the Kyplynger Woods, he still has plenty of men and artillery to hold Glacierheart, and even to go on the offensive against Kaitswyrth unless 600,000 or more Harchongese show up. Even if that happens he can fall back into the woods and decimate them, then fall back to the scar in the forest where the battle that routed Kaitswyrth took place, and if that fails, he has a prepared position on the shore of Ice Lake. He can bleed Kaitswyrth's forces the entire way, and Kaitswyrth's army that was routed by DE wants [i]nothing [/i]to do with facing Charisians again. They're beaten before they start, so unless Kaitswyrth is heavily reinforced with troops who have [i]never [/i]faced Charisian forces and been beaten, he's simply going to stay put - unless HM comes after him, or until his supplies from the south are cut off, which will happen as soon as the Haarahld VIIs (or even the Rottweilers, though that isn't the plan) sail into the Bay of Bess. Given that the Haarahld VIIs should be ready to steam by August, and could arrive at Claw Island in September, South Harchong and Desnair will be entirely out of the war by the end of the year. It will be interesting to see if the ICN goes after Gorath immediately, or elects to shut down the Dairynth and Salthar canals first. Trapping Thirsk and the last fleet of the NoG in Gorath Bay would be ideal, but he'll probably sortie as soon as he hears of ICN ships in the Gulf, and there are only two armored ships in the ICN fleet. His ships are badly outranged and the new rifled shells will wreak havoc on any NoG ship they hit, but it's simply not possible to keep the range open under sail. So if Thirsk leaves Gorath, mopping up his fleet will be largely up to the Rottweilers and Haarahld VIIs. A toe-to-toe fight with their unarmored galleons will result in severe damage to ICN ships, although the rifled shells they fire now hit 7x harder and have 10x the explosive power than before, so engagements between any ICN and NoG warships are going to be short and catastrophic for the NoG, but the ICN [i]will [/i]take casualties - and some severe ones at that. One possible sneaky twist that would be helpful - Silkiah is no longer declared a neutral zone by the CoGA, which so far means they've been allowed to begin producing rifles and are up to a whopping 500 a month! I doubt they're thrilled about supporting the jihad, since they were just as enthusiastic as Siddarmark in finding ways around the church mandated boycott of Charisian goods. The SoS caused them to pull their heads into their shells, but if Dohlar ends up surrendering, Silkiah may sign on with the allies. It has no army, but giving free and unfettered access to the Salthar canal would be a [i]huge [/i]advantage for the ICN, since it cuts 20,000 miles off of the journey to resupply the fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar, and [i]ironclads [/i]can pass through it... [/quote] Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18 | |
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by lyonheart » Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:01 am | |
lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi JeffEngel,
By taking the Salthar Canal and Dairnyth, the alliance can remove much of the CoGA's pressure on the real Dohlar leadership, and I too suspect the Bishop will play an important role in Dohlar's post inquisition religious leadership, whether it formally splits with the temple or not. Of course, its also possible he sacrifices himself for Thirsk or his family, but that's not my sense of where his character winds up. L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18 | |
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by lyonheart » Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:23 am | |
lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi Thanatos,
"Liberating" Silkiah is secondary to taking the Salthar Canal intact in order to reduce the ICN's supply line by at least 5-12,000 miles, depending whether you're supplying from Port Royal or Tellesburg, as I've emphasized a few times in past threads, as you know. While I think Nynian would be a great help in eliminating the Inquisition in Silkiah, I don't believe her organization is focused there enough to help all that much. Personally, I think 500 rifles per month from scratch in less than a year after the SoS is pretty good. Strategically and psychologically speaking, cutting Howard off from Haven will have important results in terms of getting many if not most of the vicarate to realise they're losing; especially in terms of control of Safehold, and they need to consider dealing with the reformists to prevent further losses, before its too late; thereby helping Duchairn etc when his coup comes. L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18 | |
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by lyonheart » Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:42 am | |
lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi Don,
If the alliance has to wait until the KH VII's arrive this fall, Dohlar has managed the incredible in terms of holding off the now far larger and far better armed ICA and RSA for several month's! In short, the momentum appears to be building towards a resolution much sooner than your projected schedule. I don't see them stopping either DE or EHM, NTM Hanth; but especially because taking the Salthar Canal and threatening Gorath from the Southeast is far close than the Siddarmark border; which wrecks all their defense plans that are based on their army[s] on the Siddarmark border, ie almost twice as far away. Thus the current king is toast! Please note this is far sooner than when the KH VII's can play a role. This assumes the new river ironclads can pass through the canal, with a minimum of 4-6 dealing with Thirsk's fleet. L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18 | |
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by lyonheart » Tue Feb 10, 2015 7:58 am | |
lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi EdThomas,
In response to your points: 1. I concur Hanth won't do anything stupid. 2. We have textev from LaMA that the inner circle knows the St Kylmahn's are better in some ways than the original Mahndrayn and are being sent to Rychtyr, etc. 3. It's certainly possible, and would be a nice ripost for the loss of those M96's from the convoy. Regarding DE's movements ... EHM is much closer, and taking and fortifying Dairnyth accomplishes the same canal denial mission, besides all the other advantages. 1. Given the energy requirements of blasting a uniform sphere, they'd be lucky to double or triple the volume. 2. You don't need to be anywhere near that high. L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18 | |
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by JeffEngel » Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:44 am | |
JeffEngel
Posts: 2074
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It certainly hasn't been historically - that's been a matter of Temple Lands connections and Siddarmark finances. But she saw something like the Sword of Schueler coming, put herself in Siddarmark and prepared rifle battalions for the occasion. Even then, she could have foreseen at least the shadow of that falling on Silkiah and begun some preparations. As things have unfolded with Charisian intervention in Siddarmark, predicting a key role for Silkiah would have been easier. So she's had a good bit of time and reason to prepare something in Silkiah - not with the focus or background she's had in the Temple Lands and Siddarmark by any means, but she's got mad letter-writing skills, plenty of cash, and connections everywhere. And she's well aware of her limitations too, so if she couldn't pull off the kind of miracles she did in Zion or Siddar City, she'd aim for something more subtle, perhaps coordinated with Charisian military action and/or her seijin friends. |
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18 | |
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by jgnfld » Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:48 am | |
jgnfld
Posts: 468
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As any sailor knows, you have to consider this from both sides! That is anything built up rises above the tangent and contributes to the total distance. For example, a platform 25 feet high can see a heliograph mounted 5 feet high for 10 miles. Or for that matter record hits on a structure 5 feet high 10 miles away--well given sufficiently good optics.
A 15 foot platform still gives 8 miles to something 5 feet off the ground. This also makes indirect approaches, as others have suggested, quite feasible.
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18 | |
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by JeffEngel » Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:51 am | |
JeffEngel
Posts: 2074
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I've got the same read. He's a very careful man, keeping the right things he does quiet and subtle so he can continue living and doing them. It probably "helps" that he's grown up with the awareness that loved ones are hostage to the Grand Inquisitor's opinion of one's value and loyalty, and that if he's going to get promoted to certain positions, he's expected to marry and have more hostages available. It would be fitting and a hoot if it turns out he's got deep, deep, utterly buried connections with Nynian and could be part of an orchestrated "liberation" of the senior Dohlaran leadership's Inquisition-"protected" family members. Of course, the best of plans often don't come off perfectly, and being smart doesn't mean being invulnerable, so it could well be that he gets killed - or captured and subjected to the Question - in the course of saving a lot of other people. |
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18 | |
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by n7axw » Tue Feb 10, 2015 9:10 am | |
n7axw
Posts: 5997
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Hi Lyonheart,
I've missed ya lately. Thought ya went awol or something. On to (slightly) more serious stuff... where are you coming up with your 20,000 figure for Hanth's army? The figure sloshing around in my head is more like 70,O00. As for invading Dohlar, I see what you are talking about but here is what I am thinking. We know that at this point, Dohlar has, including Rychtyr, in the range of about 120,000 men under arms. Attacking them on their own turf would mean they would be the ones dug in this time and so far, at least, they have been the COGA's most effective minions. It sounds real expensive in terms of blood and treasure. So is there any real downside to waiting for the Haarahlds? The only potential fly swirling around the olive in the martini here are the Harchongese. Being caught between them could be a bad thing... But then, how mobile will the Harchongese turn out to be? Don When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HFQ Offical Snippet #18 | |
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by PeterZ » Tue Feb 10, 2015 10:38 am | |
PeterZ
Posts: 6432
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Lyonheart is right, Don. Upon HMS Delthak's arrival in Thesmar, Hanth's garrison increased to 30,000 men; that's RSA, ICMC and ICA. I don't recall his being reinforced much beyond that. |
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