Frustrations with tactical blinders on the Inner Circle

It is close to a miracle that Harchong put a competent and visionary military man in charge of the Mighty Host. If he were to go the way of Yamamoto, odds are his replacement would be in it for the graft, or at best would be clueless about modern warfare.

Nahrmann's probably got a little list of competent people with stupid or counterproductive deputies.

Expert snuggler wrote:It is close to a miracle that Harchong put a competent and visionary military man in charge of the Mighty Host. If he were to go the way of Yamamoto, odds are his replacement would be in it for the graft, or at best would be clueless about modern warfare.

Didn't Magwair go through half a dozen replacements before finding a Harchongese CO willing to play ball?

Silverwall wrote:Who would you assassinate? Other than Clynthan who is not just going to be replaced by the next man in the chain of command?

Even assinating Clynthan doesn't do much for your cause long term as the rest of the Go4 are just as committed to crushing heresy and much less dogmatic about things so are more flexible and dangerous as a result. At the risk of invoking Godwins law there is a reason that the allies decided not to kill Hitler, specifically he was helping them more than his less nutty replacement would have. Clynthann is the same.

Actually killing Hitler or Churchill or whomever would have been nontrivial. It is also not obvious that the Allies held him in such contempt. Recall that the historical veracity of "The German Generals Speak" blaming Hitler has been somewhat demolished. See "Liddel-Hart and the Weight of History".

mscase wrote:
Appreciate the comments and obviously have different opinions.

Re: assassination, I can't accept that accepting the deaths of tens of thousands of soldiers is in any way morally superior to the targeted deaths of dozens or even hundreds of officers. Furthermore, surveillance gives the allies excellent amd immediate visibility as to which enemy commanders are dangerous and which are not - as well as the effectiveness of their subordinates and replacements. It is an unusual situation where there can be considerable confidence that removing one man (or even ten men, if necessary) would meaningfully degrade the AOG's ability to conduct the war while further degrading the morale of the AOG leadership, as shown by the outcome of Merlin's reprisals against concentration camp officers.

Never suggested any use of advanced weaponry or mass distribution of advanced technology - that would just be daft. Although I think the risk of automated response has been overblown considering that we're using communications and skimmer-type technologies pretty much without restriction. Still agree it's probably not worth the risk.

However, Lywysite mines used against ships in port would be blamed on saboteurs. Even better, if an entire fleet in transit were to disappear - then that's just a mystery that's never going to be solved, isn't it?

As the war continues to turn against the AOG, it will be easier to see traitors and saboteurs in every corner. As the Church has continued to embrace and adopt each Charisian technological innovation, the charge of "demonic" intervention (at least without the appearance of an assault shuttle in the air above the Temple) has become effectively irrelevant. Likewise, the strength of the Proscriptions have eroded to the point where the "benefit" of prolonging this costly & bloody war is outweighed by the costs.

Re: Assassination, as an Israeli, I have many friends and relatives who think assassination is a perfectly legitimate tactic of war and should be used more freely. And every time they raise this idea I am forced to remind them of the law of unintended consequences and all the other downsides of assassination. I remind them that Israel assassinated Abbas al-Musawi who was the leader of Hezbollah some 20 years ago. He was replaced by Hassan Nasrallah, who turned out to be far more competent and far more dangerous than his predecessor. And while Israel has managed to take out quite a few enemy combatants in this fashion with minimal collateral damage, it has not been perfect and has made quite a few mistakes. Moreover, each one of these assassinations has created plenty of martyrs who are used to rally more desperate people to the cause of fighting Israel.

So when applied to the Inner Circle's situation, and putting aside any moralistic arguments, you see that assassination is not an advisable tactic. If the objective is to eliminate competent commanders and overly clever R&D types on the church's side in order to further hamper the Church's war effort, then you would still need to pull it off in plausible ways - ways that are obviously "mortal" and explainable. Using TF technology to pull it off would be used to turn the entire population (under Church or Charisian control) against such obviously demonic attacks and would cause people to ask who the demons are benefiting with their attacks and deciding that Charis is obviously in league with them (see the reactions in Corisande to Hektor's assassination). And to pull it off, they would need to kill quite a lot of people - anyone competent in fact on the Church's side. Otherwise, Thirsk would simply be replaced by one of his competent subordinates. As the situation stands right now, Clyntahn already mistrusts all of them and having him eliminate them would actually be better from a cold blooded perspective. In fact, that is likely to happen in the next novel as the Church's situation deteriorates and Clyntahn looks for scapegoats.

Regarding mining Gorath Bay, I would point out that Rayno has already become suspicious of "demonic" activity. If such an attack cannot be readily explained, if the only explanation for the masses is "supernatural" (not just extreme skill, dumb luck and remarkably good intelligence), then even Charisians might start to suspect that the seijins are far too capable even within the bounds of what people know about them. Note how much effort is put into making the people at the top (like the Siddarmarkian leadership and Charisian politicos outside of the Inner Circle) think that the seijin spies are simply too good (and not ask why such good spies couldn't operate freely in the Temple itself). This serves both to avoid such unnecessary suspicion and encourage people to think independently from what the Writ and the Church have indoctrinated them to think.

Finally, the Proscriptions have not eroded - Not at least in the eyes of most Safeholdians. They all still operate on the belief that they would need to justify any innovation to the local intendant, with most simply giving up in advance rather than risk it. Indeed, RFC has commented on this very subject. While Clyntahn is approving innovations left, right and center, he is only doing so as an expedient for the war effort, using his specific authority to do while withdrawing that authority from any Schuelerites who are behind enemy lines (if any are left of course). Legally speaking, he isn't violating the proscriptions until and unless he starts working with electricity (something even he isn't stupid enough to risk). Obviously he believes that when he wins, he will be able to stuff that genie back in the bottle by eliminating all of the innovators and anathematizing their work and inventions. And I would remind you that many clergymen were already uncomfortable with all the innovation being approved by the church, even if it was completely legal and absolutely necessary for survival. They all still fear the Rakurai will come crashing down for their "sins". No, the Proscriptions will only be degraded if people no longer fear the church punishing them for their creativity or if they start twisting the rule to accommodate electricity.

>Clyntahn already mistrusts all of them and having him eliminate them would actually be better from a cold blooded perspective

A few forged letters apparently from and to the targets could easily prompt Clyntahn to torture and kill them. The Inquisition is presumably intercepting mail.

The impact on morale would be brutal.

thanatos wrote:
Re: Assassination, as an Israeli, I have many friends and relatives who think assassination is a perfectly legitimate tactic of war and should be used more freely. And every time they raise this idea I am forced to remind them of the law of unintended consequences and all the other downsides of assassination. I remind them that Israel assassinated Abbas al-Musawi who was the leader of Hezbollah some 20 years ago. He was replaced by Hassan Nasrallah, who turned out to be far more competent and far more dangerous than his predecessor. And while Israel has managed to take out quite a few enemy combatants in this fashion with minimal collateral damage, it has not been perfect and has made quite a few mistakes. Moreover, each one of these assassinations has created plenty of martyrs who are used to rally more desperate people to the cause of fighting Israel.

So when applied to the Inner Circle's situation, and putting aside any moralistic arguments, you see that assassination is not an advisable tactic. If the objective is to eliminate competent commanders and overly clever R&D types on the church's side in order to further hamper the Church's war effort, then you would still need to pull it off in plausible ways - ways that are obviously "mortal" and explainable. Using TF technology to pull it off would be used to turn the entire population (under Church or Charisian control) against such obviously demonic attacks and would cause people to ask who the demons are benefiting with their attacks and deciding that Charis is obviously in league with them (see the reactions in Corisande to Hektor's assassination). And to pull it off, they would need to kill quite a lot of people - anyone competent in fact on the Church's side. Otherwise, Thirsk would simply be replaced by one of his competent subordinates. As the situation stands right now, Clyntahn already mistrusts all of them and having him eliminate them would actually be better from a cold blooded perspective. In fact, that is likely to happen in the next novel as the Church's situation deteriorates and Clyntahn looks for scapegoats.

Regarding mining Gorath Bay, I would point out that Rayno has already become suspicious of "demonic" activity. If such an attack cannot be readily explained, if the only explanation for the masses is "supernatural" (not just extreme skill, dumb luck and remarkably good intelligence), then even Charisians might start to suspect that the seijins are far too capable even within the bounds of what people know about them. Note how much effort is put into making the people at the top (like the Siddarmarkian leadership and Charisian politicos outside of the Inner Circle) think that the seijin spies are simply too good (and not ask why such good spies couldn't operate freely in the Temple itself). This serves both to avoid such unnecessary suspicion and encourage people to think independently from what the Writ and the Church have indoctrinated them to think.

Finally, the Proscriptions have not eroded - Not at least in the eyes of most Safeholdians. They all still operate on the belief that they would need to justify any innovation to the local intendant, with most simply giving up in advance rather than risk it. Indeed, RFC has commented on this very subject. While Clyntahn is approving innovations left, right and center, he is only doing so as an expedient for the war effort, using his specific authority to do while withdrawing that authority from any Schuelerites who are behind enemy lines (if any are left of course). Legally speaking, he isn't violating the proscriptions until and unless he starts working with electricity (something even he isn't stupid enough to risk). Obviously he believes that when he wins, he will be able to stuff that genie back in the bottle by eliminating all of the innovators and anathematizing their work and inventions. And I would remind you that many clergymen were already uncomfortable with all the innovation being approved by the church, even if it was completely legal and absolutely necessary for survival. They all still fear the Rakurai will come crashing down for their "sins". No, the Proscriptions will only be degraded if people no longer fear the church punishing them for their creativity or if they start twisting the rule to accommodate electricity.

Appreciate the comment on your own experience and background.

The only thing I'm going to add here is that the church has been crying demon so much without being able to point to any corresponding divine intervention to counter it that it's starting to sound like the little boy crying "wolf."

Don

-

To be blunt, both sides in this debate are correct.

Merlin has already crossed the Rubicon. He's killed people under circumstances with no natural explanation.

One of the perpetrators of the Sarkyn atrocity died of a slit throat inside his own guarded tent.

Expert snuggler wrote:Merlin has already crossed the Rubicon. He's killed people under circumstances with no natural explanation.

One of the perpetrators of the Sarkyn atrocity died of a slit throat inside his own guarded tent.

Any number of rational explanations for that, mostly centring around the premise that the guards got very sloppy or sloped off for a while and are now lying through their teeth about it.

A few instances of 'the other side got lucky', or 'their assassin blindsided us somehow' are perfectly credible. But when it starts happening 'a lot' then it begins to be incredibly suspicious.