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Re: Direction of the story-Spoilers | |
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by PeterZ » Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:24 pm | |
PeterZ
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The biggest variable is just how fast the jihadis can innovate. If they develop and adopt enough innovations, they may just hold off the ICA. Now that doesn't just mean innovating on their own, but also how much they can steal from the Allies.
The KH VIIs are going to be a big inducement for Dohlar and South Harchong to quit the jihad either voluntarily or by force. Those ships won't have nearly the same capacity to harm the Temple Lands or North Harchong. Sure with enough troop transports, the KH VIIs can sail into Temple Bay and attack Zion directly. Will that be enough to awaken the sleepers? Merlin doesn't want to bring high tech close enough to the Temple because he doesn't want to risk anything like that. Might having an enemy army or navy approaching Zion trigger an AI to awaken or the sleepers themselves to perhaps operate the OBS? Yes, it might. So the Allies will have to balance the risk and reward of pressing any attack to Zion against the potential of awakening the Sleepers before innovating becomes more ubiquitous. If the MHoGaA and the CoGA innovate enough, the price of pressing the attack would be high and the risk of awakening the Temple high tech would be unabated. It might be better in that case to accept a cold war and have that motivate the CoGA to innovate faster in order to offset current Charisian advantages. The goal would be to make innovation and technology ubiquitous by the time the Sleepers awaken and increase the price of unleashing the OBS beyond what even megalomaniacs will be willing to pay. If the MHoGaA do not innovate sufficiently, the cost of not attempting a coup de main to gain access for Father Payter and the Key now may be much higher casualties later on. Depending on the calculation OWL computes, attacking might well be the best option. Shattering the MHoGaA in the border lands will cause the CoGA to unravel. Using the KH VIIs to shepherd troop transports for a direct attack on Zion might be the quickest way to gain that access. So, the biggest key I am looking for in the next book is just effective the MHoGaA against the ICA? Their ability to use or adapt the weapons they currently have and innovate new ones to defend against the Allied offensive they KNOW is coming in the summer will be key. |
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Re: Direction of the story | |
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by JeffEngel » Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:41 pm | |
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I don't think he's done any of that with an intention of putting the poor, starving, destitute people his faith calls upon him to clothe, shelter and feed into the line of fire of the Inquisition and Temple Guard. That may all be an unintended, even unknown side-effect - that they'd rise up in his defense or in his memory if push comes to shove - but I doubt it's something he's planned or intends. And it does not match well with his thinking in HFQ that his plotting doesn't have anything fast or "hard" enough to reply to immediate violent moves on Clyntahn's part: the Temple mob would be such a force, if he had it mobilized somehow. In addition, I doubt it could be organized that way that secretly. |
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Re: Direction of the story | |
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by JeffEngel » Thu Nov 12, 2015 1:08 pm | |
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While I can't rule that out positively, two points militate against that. First, I doubt Wylsynn would have spread danger to people associated with the Circle but not already in Clyntahn's sights and grasp. Something to point to Nynian (Ahnzhelyk, in that guise) would have been exactly that. Second, Duchairn has been deathly afraid of being found with that on his person. Something that could be used to sic the Inquisition on third parties would be something he could offer them to improve his position that way. This leads me to think it was more likely some of the Circle's (or, by some remove, the SSK's) blackmail material on some of the vicarate, so Duchairn would have some idea who cannot be trusted. What the Circle may have known about Inquisition spies or double agents may have been it too.
I'm fairly optimistic myself about Dohlar's likelihood of leaving the jihad, for these and other reasons. I just wanted to make the point that Earl Thirsk himself was just one small part of that, and to avoid too much optimism. The defections so far have been: Charis: Defect or die, you've been essentially cast out already. Chisholm: Defect or probably die - you're too likely to get blamed for insufficient participation against your own interests already, or to face the same treatment but alone down the road if you don't. Emerald, Tarot: Defect or get invaded and forced to defect, and, well, you know you're suspect anyway Zebediah: pretty much the Emerald/Tarot story, plus opportunism to play both sides in the late Grand Duke's case; nowadays, among the Zebediahan people, it's get behind the defection because they like it. Corisande: defect willingly and be a participant or stay loyal (but suspect) and occupied (loyal) Siddarmark: see Charis Delferahk, Desnair: excusably fail to volunteer for more pointless slapping around without really stepping out of the Temple side Dohlar isn't in a defect or die situation yet. They may well be able to avoid death for a long time just because there's only so much that can be brought to bear on them with Harchong on the same continent and their own population and manufacturing base. They're in a far better position to hold out than Corisande was. That may make for a brutal, slow destruction of their nation, but if they really think the Temple must win, that would still mean coming out on top. For that matter, giving the Allies a "Dohlaran ulcer" could contribute to their ultimate defeat, like Spanish resistance did for Napoleon. They have too much going for them in terms of manufacturing and population base - and position - to be in Delferahk's or Desnair's position of being able to fall quietly out of the jihad. So Dohlar would have to opt out of the jihad, if they do, with far more freedom not to than Siddarmark or any of the Out Islands did, and far more decisively than Desnair or Delferahk (or Fallos or the Raven Lands) have. It wouldn't be dropping out for being kicked out, or for facing that as a certain result of sheer force anyway, but because (at least in very large part) because it's just the right thing to do. (Though, granted, not being kicked around any more by the Allies would be nice, as would not having their sailors and soldiers under the de facto command of Desnairians and fanatics. It's not like moral indignation has to be the sole reason!) |
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Re: Direction of the story | |
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by n7axw » Thu Nov 12, 2015 3:32 pm | |
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Don't quite agree here. Dohlar is more heavily threatened than you seem to be indicating, whether the threat comes from a reinforced Hanth or from the Cities showing up in Gorath Bay. Either of those possibilities confront Dohlar with being knocked out of the war. Dohlar's participation in the Jihad is measured in not more than a few months and there is textev to support Thirsk's knowing that. So it happens...one way or another. Don When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Direction of the story-Spoilers | |
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by n7axw » Thu Nov 12, 2015 3:37 pm | |
n7axw
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Is there any indicator to suggest that anything more primitive than TF tech would awaken the sleepers? If there is, I don't remember it. Don When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Direction of the story | |
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by jgnfld » Thu Nov 12, 2015 3:59 pm | |
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That was most certainly a mutiny from Clyntahn's perspective! |
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Re: Direction of the story | |
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by PeterZ » Thu Nov 12, 2015 4:11 pm | |
PeterZ
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As I recall no one knows what will trigger the Temple to activate. The concern the Key generated was what other safeguards does the Temple have in place? Text stipulates a large power source in the Temple in excess of what is required to run the known amenities. Assuming that algorithms are running and waiting to activate Terran tech systems in case of a threat to the CoGA is simply prudent. Investigating the issue more directly is more prudent still. Finding a way to have Payter Wylsyn enter and snoop come to mind.
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Re: Direction of the story | |
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by n7axw » Thu Nov 12, 2015 5:58 pm | |
n7axw
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This is how I remember it as well. Given Father Paityr's lack of computer background, he can't really snoop. All he can really do is plug in the key at which point all those exe files go off and whatever they're supposed to do. That strikes me as a less than optimal outcome. I suspect that the Temple is set up to respond to TF level tech which would mean that it wouldn't respond to armies that reflected tech that was pre-electric. When I think about it, from the viewpoint of what's in the basement, I doubt that it could differentiate between the Guard and the ICA. The difference in tech wouldn't be that great. I also doubt that as long as that tech threshold isn't crossed, the basement would care about who is upstairs or if there is a change of tenants. Don When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Direction of the story | |
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by PeterZ » Thu Nov 12, 2015 6:53 pm | |
PeterZ
Posts: 6432
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That doubt is a very thin reed to hold on to when total destruction is on the line. If the good guys go in assuming Safehold tech will not trigger a response and something happens the results will be catastrophic. The Temple was built during the War Against the Fallen as proof that God was more powerful than Shan-wei's servants. It wasn't built as of the Alexandria strike. That we know for sure. It couldn't have been built too soon after the strike since the Commodore's resistance didn't start until some time after the Alexandria strike. It appears than that the Temple was built towards the end of the War Against the Fallen and was completed by the end of the War as Cody died while visiting the Temple. I doubt that Chihiro and Sheuler would have used the resources it would have taken to build the Temple until the War was well and truly won. That means that the temple would have been more at risk to low tech armies than to high tech demon infiltration. The Temple would have had records of all the resistance members or at least total numbers. They would have known who was left unaccounted for at the end of the hostilities. Until they were certain the risk of high tech will have been defeated, they wouldn't have devoted the resources to build the Temple. Once built, the Temple presided over a low tech society. Any threat to its inhabitants would have been of the low tech variety. Whatever high tech safeguards that were left in place would have been certain to address the most likely risks as well as the sudden resurgence of high tech. All in all assuming that a very large and effective low tech army that threatens Zion would be ignored by the safeguards seems like one of those assumptions that will bite one's dupah. That suggests that our prudent heroes will want to be certain of what will trigger the Temple's Safeguards. |
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Re: Direction of the story | |
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by n7axw » Thu Nov 12, 2015 10:50 pm | |
n7axw
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So...what do you do? Avoid Zion? Say that you can only get so close and no closer, leaving the Temple and its denisons untouched? Imagine Zhasphar Clyntahn still in control as the wheels come off. The allies approach and then stop. Your perspective rules out the Haarahlds escorting in the transports to land troops in Temple Bay. Now what? If there can be no threat to Zion, Father Paityr certainly isn't going to make it into the Temple basement. No way to establish what will or will not trigger the Tenple's safeguards. (Shrug) I don't know which way the story is going to go any more than you do. But I don't believe its going to go this way. Don When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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