Thinking about King Zhames

Harchong in its entirety has 194 million people. Where pray tell did RFC post any comment about how that population wax distributed between NH and SH? Review the Raw Meat for Peculation post to verify my number. What percentage of Desnair's population is able to be drawn for armed service? What percentage of the SH may be so drawn? After Desnair lost its AoG, how capable are they to field another like it?

The SH population is not insignificant. How can they produce what they contributed to jihad using those older labor intensive methods they knew? They couldn't. That suggests the population is quite large and/or they have a higher percentage of skilled workers that North Harchong or Desnair.

They have production. They have sufficient population. They haven't lost the flower of their army like Desnair has. Desnair is toast.

PeterZ wrote:Harchong in its entirety has 194 million people. Where pray tell did RFC post any comment about how that population wax distributed between NH and SH? Review the Raw Meat for Peculation post to verify my number. What percentage of Desnair's population is able to be drawn for armed service? What percentage of the SH may be so drawn? After Desnair lost its AoG, how capable are they to field another like it?

The SH population is not insignificant. How can they produce what they contributed to jihad using those older labor intensive methods they knew? They couldn't. That suggests the population is quite large and/or they have a higher percentage of skilled workers that North Harchong or Desnair.

They have production. They have sufficient population. They haven't lost the flower of their army like Desnair has. Desnair is toast.

Sorry, had to.

North Harchong has FOURTEEN provinces, South Harchong has THREE... Yeah, sure those THREE provinces have the population to survive seceding from Harchong, AND conquering Desnair.

Harchong has 198 million people throughout 17 provinces... that comes down to 11.65 million per province. That would give SH around 35 million population.

As to their higher production, SH is the newest part of the Harchong empire. Therefore we can assume that they are not racially or culturally Harchongese, but more closely related to their neighbors in Desnair, Sodar, Dohar, Silkiah, etc.

FYI, somewhere on the forum there was a long discussion on Desnair and her remaining army. The general consensus was that Desnair would still have quite a large army left back at home. Just based off of the percentages of populations under arms.

Again, Harchong sent most of their army off, and it is marching towards the Republic with no way to get to SH. Not only that, but the quality of their army made the Desnairians look formidable. Harchong, ( and the bureaucracy still runs SH ) fields an army by rounding up serfs and marching them at their enemies.

As of right now, Desnair would wreck SH. And it wouldn't be close. Untrained serfs would NOT stand up to a calvary charge, and that is all that SH could field anytime soon.

Isilith wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Harchong in its entirety has 194 million people. Where pray tell did RFC post any comment about how that population wax distributed between NH and SH? Review the Raw Meat for Peculation post to verify my number. What percentage of Desnair's population is able to be drawn for armed service? What percentage of the SH may be so drawn? After Desnair lost its AoG, how capable are they to field another like it?

The SH population is not insignificant. How can they produce what they contributed to jihad using those older labor intensive methods they knew? They couldn't. That suggests the population is quite large and/or they have a higher percentage of skilled workers that North Harchong or Desnair.

They have production. They have sufficient population. They haven't lost the flower of their army like Desnair has. Desnair is toast.

Sorry, had to.

North Harchong has FOURTEEN provinces, South Harchong has THREE... Yeah, sure those THREE provinces have the population to survive seceding from Harchong, AND conquering Desnair.

Harchong has 198 million people throughout 17 provinces... that comes down to 11.65 million per province. That would give SH around 35 million population.

As to their higher production, SH is the newest part of the Harchong empire. Therefore we can assume that they are not racially or culturally Harchongese, but more closely related to their neighbors in Desnair, Sodar, Dohar, Silkiah, etc.

Alternatively, much of that portion of the mainland - it's about as far out of the way as you can get without getting into the ocean - may be a frontier of terraforming effort supported by North Harchong. Or a frontier of terraforming effort toward the southwest supported by the northwestern portion of South Harchong, by now.

We're afloat on a sea of very tentative speculation here.

We don't have a basis, either, for supposing Harchong's population (or wealth or industrialization) is spread proportionately either. I'm going to guess that South Harchong has a bit more efficient agriculture and a social matrix a little more like Dohlar or Sodar than North Harchong, but it's just a guess.

FYI, somewhere on the forum there was a long discussion on Desnair and her remaining army. The general consensus was that Desnair would still have quite a large army left back at home. Just based off of the percentages of populations under arms.

Again, Harchong sent most of their army off, and it is marching towards the Republic with no way to get to SH. Not only that, but the quality of their army made the Desnairians look formidable. Harchong, ( and the bureaucracy still runs SH ) fields an army by rounding up serfs and marching them at their enemies.

As of right now, Desnair would wreck SH. And it wouldn't be close. Untrained serfs would NOT stand up to a calvary charge, and that is all that SH could field anytime soon.

Harchong does have foundries in Temple control right now, and efficiency being demanded of them, more effectively than Desnairian foundries. So SH would have that going for it - assuming it got control of those intact itself. And a revolutionary army may have a lot more flexibility and elan than Desnairian cavalry, fresh from a legacy of failure.

That said - either side would have a terrible time making inroads on one another. The SH/Desnairian border is a wall across the base of the Harris Peninsula, a small portion of South Harchong otherwise surrounded by water and Sodar, which is notoriously hard to move across.

SH cannot get much force there with someone else in control of the Gulf of Dohlar; invading Desnairians would be getting even less across it. Maybe Desnair could seize Harris Peninsula - after which they'd have their own occupation challenge and the remainder of South Harchong could go right along its way.

South Harchong lies on the equator. It has approximately 50% more land area than Dohlar. More of its land area lies closer to the equator than Dohlar. Dohlar has half of the population of the entire Harchong Empire living on about 10% to 15% of the land area. All that suggests to me that SH produces much of the Empires food and is home to a significant portion of the Empires total population.

While Desnair has a larger population than SH, its economy and social matrix are less able free up extra hands for non-food producing activities. Further, the stratification of Desnairi society means fewer of its residents have a stake in Desnair as a nation. They are ruled subjects and will remain ruled subjects regardless of which set of aristocrats happen to rule. It might be argued that SH would treat their new subjects better than Desnairi nobles. Heavy garrisons might not be needed.

So, after the CoGA loses its monopoly on setting international policy, SH might well be able defeat Desnair. Especially if Siddermark distracts Desnair suitably. Siddermark was stopped at Silkiah by Zion. Absent Zion's interference, Siddermark might well take the Gulf of Jahras and the isthmus around it.

Yes this is all speculation. I believe it is sound speculation. Because even if Zion falls to the allies, North Harchong will strive against the allies. While a direct hot war might continue with the allies, the allies will not mind SH taking territory from Desnair. If Zion does not fall completely the diplomatic calculus of cold war becomes even trickier.

I may need some correction on this, but here is my take.

Right now Desnair has an army, albeit a weakened one, given the loss of Harless' force. What modern weapons Desnair had, they lost in Siddarmark with Harless. Desnair also has a central authority in the Emperor. Desnair has a population of 148,000,000 as per that raw meat for the speculators post RFC put out there a while back.

SH, on the other hand has no army, no central authority at this time. Their population is unknown sinse we have not seen it split away from Harchong as a whole. But we may presume it less than either Desnair or NH. But consider... NH is known for its huge slave plantations which suggests a primarily agrarian economy. However, SH is where most of Harchong's artisans are. That in turn suggests that the population density of SH would be a quite a bit higher than either NH or Desnair. That would mean that there would be a quite a few more people than would be suggested by averaging out Harchong's population by dividing the population by the number of principalities.

So what does this mean in a confrontation between the two? First in means that in the short term Desnair wins if they strike before SH gets organized. Having an army beats having no army, after all.

In the intermediate to long term, Desnair's prospects dim. Saying that Desnair has an army is not to say that it has a good army. In fact what we have seen of it so far is that while its rank and file fought with courage and determination in the Kyplyngyr Forest, it was poorly led with its leadership very conservative and wed to the old book. Further, it lost the flower of its nobility with Harless. Finally the army left behind in Desnair only has a very limited capability to produce modern weapons and given what we know of their mindset, the prospects of changing that looks bleak.

South Harchong, on the other hand, if they can survive in the short term, their prospects look better over the intermediate to long term. Here are the ifs. If they can come together around a central authority, if they can organize well enough to recruit an army, with their artisans they have a much stronger capacity to build weapons on a par with those currently available to the COGA. Further, in developing their army, they can bring in trainers from places like Dohlar who have learned by experience what organizing a modern army means.

Should this admittedly thin speculation is even close to being on target, Desnair gets its arse kicked.

Don

My only quibble with your analysis, Don, is the assumption of a lack of central authority. The Empire is ruled by bureaucrats. I would be shocked if there was not a regional headquarters for the bureaucracy. That could function effectively as a source of central authority or at least a method of exercising central authority.

It does require coopting the bureaucracy and that depends on how thoroughly Charis cuts Howard from Haven.

King zhames will be isolate from the church, via the land bridge and the sea in the control of hte imperium.
Their biggest threat is from desnair, i am wondering wit hte financial issues and discord in the world, would other borders start to move. I bet they might get swallowed up soon.

PeterZ wrote:My only quibble with your analysis, Don, is the assumption of a lack of central authority. The Empire is ruled by bureaucrats. I would be shocked if there was not a regional headquarters for the bureaucracy. That could function effectively as a source of central authority or at least a method of exercising central authority.

SNIP.

I concur with this assessment - almost certain to have regional centers of admin, especially given that it is a different continent!

PeterZ wrote:My only quibble with your analysis, Don, is the assumption of a lack of central authority. The Empire is ruled by bureaucrats. I would be shocked if there was not a regional headquarters for the bureaucracy. That could function effectively as a source of central authority or at least a method of exercising central authority.

It does require coopting the bureaucracy and that depends on how thoroughly Charis cuts Howard from Haven.

That could work and it would put SH a bit further ahead of the gane than I've been assuming. They could appoint an emperor to servr as a unifying symbol.

My presumption had the EOC in control of the Gulf of Dohlar after the Haarahlds and ironclads arrive and the land bridge betwwen Howard and the Havens under allied control.

Don

SYED wrote:King zhames will be isolate from the church, via the land bridge and the sea in the control of hte imperium.
Their biggest threat is from desnair, i am wondering wit hte financial issues and discord in the world, would other borders start to move. I bet they might get swallowed up soon.

Zhames will have to look for allies to guarantee his security. The most natural place for him to look would be the EOC. Hosting an imperial base in exchange for an EOC guarantee of his terrtitorial integrity would be the best Zhames could hope for and its probably in the EOC's interest to make the deal.

Don